Wednesday, November 01, 2006
KY-02: New Internal Poll Shows Weaver Ahead
Posted by James L.Via the Bluegrass Report comes a new DCCC/Kentucky Democratic Party poll on the 2nd district race between state legislator Mike Weaver and incumbent Republican Ron Lewis (Oct. 26-29; Sept. 22-25 in parens):
Mike Weaver (D): 46 (42)
Ron Lewis (R-Inc.): 43 (50)
MoE: ±4.9%
I've always figured that this race was a questionable longshot given the district's strong Republican lean (in federal votting patterns, not registration), but it appears that Weaver, a retired Lt. Colonel, has been able to gain traction in this district and is starting to bring registered Democrats home. The DCCC has put in nearly $200k into this district for stretch run attack ads against Lewis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that number expand considerably in tonight's FEC filings. We might be able to steal one here.
Update: A few days ago, a Washington Post article quoted an anonymous Democratic "operative" calling the DCCC's support of Weaver "guilt money" to cleanse their consciences after cajoling Weaver into the race. I didn't buy it then (it's hard to imagine Rahm spending time worrying about people's hurt feelings when the same could be said about several other Democratic challengers this year), and I definitely don't buy it now. It seems as if some anonymous "operative" was attempting to throw off the NRCC from taking Weaver seriously (and I doubt they bought it, either, although you never know with the leakariffic culture of DC Democrats).
Posted at 04:19 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up
Posted by James L.Highlights from Tuesday night's independent expenditures:
• KS-02: The DCCC is expanding yesterday's play in this district by $313,000 for both positive and negative TV ads boosting the campaign of Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda. That brings the total spent in this district by the DCCC to over $650k. The NRCC's response today? A minor $27k media buy. Watch what they'll do tomorrow, though.
• NY-25: Boom! The DCCC has just placed a $334k media buy in this district, with both positive ads for Dan Maffei and negative ads against incumbent Jim Walsh.
• IN-03: As promised yesterday, the NRCC has dropped another $75k in TV ads into this deep-red district to fend off Ft. Wayne city councilman and self-funder Tom Hayhurst from upsetting Republican Mark Souder. In total, the NRCC has spent just shy of $200k defending this seat. Definitely one of the most eyebrow-raising expenditures of the cycle.
• NC-08: Moveon.org has entered the fray on behalf of grassroots-powered Democrat Larry Kissell with a $128k media buy against Republican incumbent Robin Hayes. If there's one thing that Larry has lacked so far, it's the money to go toe-to-toe in an air war with self-funding gazillionaire Hayes. Definitely a well-placed hit by Moveon.
• OH-02: Emily's List is doing the heavy lifting here, with $52k worth of direct mail and radio ads both for Victoria Wulsin and against Jean Schmidt. This is on top of $31k spent yesterday on direct mail.
• Union activity: the AFSCME is up with new ads against Don Sherwood in PA-10 ($50k), NRCC chair Tom Reynolds in NY-26 ($40k), and Michelle Bachmann (R) in MN-06 ($50k). The SEIU has put $45k into CO-04 for radio ads in support of Angie Paccione, $76k into MN-01 for direct mail in support of Tim Walz, $68k for radio spots in support of Patty Wetterling, and $67k into NV-02 for radio spots in support of Jill Derby.
• And, of course, as David mentioned below, the DCCC has dropped a massive $1.12 million bomb on Charlie Bass in NH-02. Daaaayum, that's gonna hurt, Charlie.
Posted at 11:49 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NH-02: DCCC Drops Da Bomb on Charlie Bass
Posted by DavidNYCTime for the Bassmaster to start cryin' into his beer:
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE1. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy2. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy3. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy4. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy5. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.62
Purpose: Media Buy6. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.63
Purpose: Media BuyTOTAL: $1,120,206.75
Yeah, you read that last line right. Please join with me in using the Dr. Evil voice when we say ONE MEEELYON DOLLARS! They come at us with $365K, we go at them with $1.1M - that's the Chicago way.
Anyhow, apart from just expressing my joy that the DCCC is beating up so heavily on Bass (couldn't happen to a nicer guy), I do want to make a broader point here. For those of you backing candidates in competitive districts where the DCCC has yet to make a move, don't fret. Sometimes waiting can really pay off. Had the DCCC made a splash in this district any earlier than now, the NRCC (or RNC) would have been sure to match them. It would have been a slogfest, and slogfests almost always favor the party with more money - ie, the Republicans.
Because the DCCC held its fire, the GOP didn't move in this district until late last week. And by playing our cards so close to our vest until the absolute last moment, that makes it a hell of a lot harder for the NRCC to counter the pocket queens we just revealed. I say "pocket queens" because the GOP may yet have a pair of aces face down on the table. But I doubt it. I feel pretty sure that this strategy of delay has paid off.
And this is especially true in redder districts. If the GOP matches Dem independent expenditures (IEs) in a red district, that's almost always going to hurt the Dem, net-net. That's because the redder the area, the more likely undecideds are to lean Republican. The way to avoid this is for Dems to spend in such a way that it comes as a total surprise to the Republicans, as in KS-02, so that they can't match, or at least, can't match in time. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC parachuted into some other under-the-radar districts before election day. So keep your eyes on those IE reports.
Posted at 10:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday Independent Expenditure Round-Up
Posted by James L.Lots of goodies to be found in Monday night's independent expenditure filings. Here are some highlights:
• The NRCC is playing it safe: they're going up on the air to defend Rick Renzi (AZ-01), Doug Lamborn (CO-05), Mark Souder (IN-03), Ron Lewis (KY-02), and Gil Gutknecht (MN-01). The defense of Souder is especially surprising, given the rock-ribbed Republican nature of the district, but an internal poll that they also paid for today might explain why. In total, they've spent nearly $125k defending Souder, with that figure increasing dramatically soon once the ad time is booked in the next day or so. When the NRCC has to put up precious dollars defending their hold on James Dobson's home turf, you know that we've done a good job expanding the playing field.
• Aside from their top-tier targets, the DCCC is stepping up to the plate with advertisements in NH-02 both in support of Paul Hodes and against Charile Bass, and in NY-25 with ads supporting Democratic challenger Dan Maffei. More ads are on the way against incumbents Cathy McMorris in WA-05 and Lewis in KY-02.
• MoveOn.org is launching a sneak attack on the suddenly vulnerable Republican Rep. Melissa Hart (PA-04) with a $240,000 ad buy and another $167,000 on attack ads and mailings against Thelma Drake (VA-02).
(Edit--I originally titled this diary "Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up". I guess it's one of those weeks where I'm wishing we could just get on with it!)
Posted at 11:42 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New Majority Watch Polls
Posted by James L.Constituent Dynamics & RT Strategies just dumped 40 or so House race polls over at their Majority Watch project website. I'd like to crow about seemingly good news out of districts like IL-10, CO-04 and KY-03, but there are too many weird results here for me to trust these polls too much: Shays with a 9 point lead? Loebsack only two points behind Leach? Maffei up by 9 points?
A little too unlikely, but some of the other races polled feel right. Give it a look.
Posted at 06:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-02: Jean Schmidt's Self-Inflicted October Surprise
Posted by James L.I sometimes wonder if Jean Schmidt's entire political career has been a subvert effort to leave Republicans feeling punk'd in Ohio's 2nd district. Take yesterday, for example, when I read this nugget from a Cincinnati Enquirer article:
This doesn't happen every day: An incumbent member of Congress, in the middle of a re-election battle, says that storing nuclear waste shipments from around the world in her district may be a good idea.U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt does say that, and her support for studying the idea has become an issue in her re-election campaign, especially in rural Pike County, in the far eastern end of her sprawling Southern Ohio District, where the nuclear wastes would be stored.
"I'm not advocating for it one way or the other," Schmidt told The Enquirer. "I'm saying it is something we need to look at."
Schmidt said she sees potential to create "hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs" in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm.
Unreal. With just over a week left until election day, Schmidt drops a radioactive October surprise on herself. When was the last time that you heard a politician advocate for the possibility of bringing nuclear waste into their constituency? It's mind-boggling, especially since this district nestles the Ohio River.
Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in, but if the DCCC wanted to finish a vulnerable Jean Schmidt off, this could be the silver bullet.
Posted at 03:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, October 29, 2006
ID-Gov, ID-01: Tossups
Posted by James L.A new Mason-Dixon poll confirms what many on the ground in Idaho have been predicting: Democrats are in a statistical dead heat in both the Governor's and 1st District races. I can't find the actual raw numbers just yet, so we'll have to make do with this:
Democrats haven't won a governor's race since 1990 or a seat in Congress since 1992, but a call for change nationally is reaching Idaho. Coupled with Republican candidates who inspire negative feelings, Democrats have a shot.In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. In the race to oversee public schools, Democrat Jana Jones leads Republican Tom Luna by 3 percentage points.
All three are statistical dead heats. The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted for the Idaho Statesman and Today's 6, the local ABC affiliate. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 4 percentage points; in the 1st District that rises to 6 percentage points. Likely voters were polled last week by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. (emphasis added)
I won't keep it a secret: what's going on in Idaho is my favorite story of this cycle. Even in the reddest of red America, the GOP's lurch towards extremism coupled with a Democratic renaissance at the grassroots level has the potential to result in several major upsets this year:
"At this point in a typical campaign, Idaho Democrats are dispirited and looking for moral victories," said Jim Weatherby, a political scientist who has overseen polling at Boise State University. "This time, it looks like they may actually pull off some major victories."In follow-up interviews with 42 polled voters, the Statesman learned they want change largely because of disapproval of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
Idaho GOP Chairman Kirk Sullivan said the national mood is hurting Republicans in the reddest of states. "Idaho has been rather immune to the attitude and mood of the public across the nation," he said. "But this time, based on the amount of coverage that appears to be anti-Bush and anti-war, I believe that attitude has invaded Idaho," he said.
A blue Idaho would fit perfectly right beside a blue Montana, don't you think?
Posted at 11:33 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 28, 2006
KS-02: DCCC Launches a Surprise Intervention
Posted by James L.From the AP:
House Democrats launched a surprise television attack against Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas on Friday night, hoping to increase the number of competitive races in the battle for control of Congress.Ryun “voted against a $1,500 combat bonus for our troops, but voted to give himself a huge pay raise — twice,” the ad says of the five-term lawmaker.
It praises his rival, Nancy Boyda, as “honest and independent — the right change for Kansas.”
The district, centered on Topeka, has been in Republican hands since 1995. The race had not generally been described by strategists in either party as a competitive one, and the commercial does not mention that Boyda is a Democrat.
Aside from some internal polling showing a tight race that some questioned, KS-02 was definitely not a race on the radar screen this cycle. But with Sebelius on the top of the ticket and Ryan performing at his weakest in 2004, perhaps the DCCC is sensing some vulnerability here. If I recall correctly, Chuck Todd of the National Journal called this a seat that could very well flip in a wave, anti-incumbent year. If the D-trip is making a last-minute intervention here, it might bode well for the chances of other 2nd and 3rd tier candidates receiving an unexpected boost.
Keep your eyes peeled for more last-week surprises.
Update: And it's not chump change, either: the DCCC is putting over $300,000 into this district, on ads both attacking Ryun and boosting Boyda. They're also spending nearly $200k on attack ads against Republican Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02), which is also a bit eyebrow-raising.
Posted at 04:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kansas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Vote Vets Throws Down in Four Races
Posted by James L.By now you may have seen one of these new ads by VoteVets PAC, running against Republican congressmen Jon Porter (NV-03), John Doolittle (CA-04), Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) and John Sweeney (NY-20):
In terms of advertising effectiveness, VoteVets is giving more bang for the buck than any other PAC or party committee this year. Their much-hyped body armor ads against Senators Talent, Burns, Allen and Santorum were impaired only by their limited budgets: a $30k-$50k media buy doesn't exactly dominate the airwaves, especially in a state as large as Pennsylvania or Virginia. For this new series of ads, however, VoteVets has scored the funding to make big, serious buys that will have an impact in each of these districts:
• $98k against Gutknecht (MN-01)
• $136k against Sweeney (NY-20)
• $237k against Porter (NV-03)
As I understand it, the John Doolittle ad will be a narrower cable buy, but even still, it should penetrate deeper in a House race than the body armor ads did with limited statewide purchases in the Senate races.
Posted at 03:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 27, 2006
DCCC Turns Up the Volume: Red to Blue Expanded by 17
Posted by James L.The DCCC has just launched a fourth wave of their Red to Blue program:
Ellen Simon (AZ-01)
Charlie Brown (CA-04)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Francine Busby (CA-50)
Jay Fawcett (CO-05)
Larry Grant (ID-01)
John Yarmuth (KY-03)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Dave Mejias (NY-03)
John Hall (NY-19)
Jack Davis (NY-26)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Victoria Wulsin (OH-02)
Jason Altmire (PA-04)
Judy Feder (VA-10)
Peter Goldmark (WA-05)
Netroots candidates are in bold. Wow, can you believe it? We've gotten to the point that the question is no longer which Netroots candidates are receiving DCCC support, but which candidates are not (and, by my count, that number is 2 3). Now, the main strength of a Red to Blue endorsement lies with the increased level of fundraising that comes with it. It's pretty late in the game for an endorsement like this to give these candidates a huge assist, but it should likely trigger some major donors and allied PACs to get shaking today. It's also more likely that the DCCC will keep some of these races in mind as it decides where to channel its remaining resources this weekend. And lastly, these endorsements are a huge validation to all of these candidates and volunteers who have delivered surprisingly competitive races for the Democratic Party this cycle. This is what momentum looks like, people.
Posted at 04:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Divorced From Reality
Posted by James L.From a Roll Call article (subscription-only):
The National Republican Congressional Committee has now spent more than $1.1 million on the write-in campaign being waged by Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), indicating that the GOP is making a definite play to hold the 22nd district seat. [...]"Voters in the wealthy Houston suburbs are sophisticated voters, and our efforts are to make sure they don't get duped by a liberal Democrat who is posing as a conservative," a Republican strategist said Wednesday.
I'm so glad to see that the NRCC is flushing $1.1 million dollars down the tubes in a quixotic attempt to hold this seat. That's $1.1 million dollars that won't be used to defend precarious Republican holds over purplish seats like ID-01, CA-04, and WY-AL. Steven Benen at Midterm Madness sums the situation up a bit more realistically for the GOP:
Of course, GOP voters have to be more than "sophisticated," they also have to be patient enough to write in a very long name -- 20 characters, including spaces -- on an eSlate electronic voting machine, which happens to lack a keyboard.
Keep reaching for that rainbow, NRCC.
Posted at 02:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
October Fundraising Reports
Posted by James L.If you want to check up on how your favorite candidate is doing in the fundraising game for the crucial final stretch, Tray.com has all of the October 1-18 FEC filings catalogued. Here are a few notable numbers from the first 18 days of October:
ID-01: Larry Grant (D) - $150k raised, $65k Cash-on-Hand; Bill Sali (R) - $55k raised, $43k CoH
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D) - $417k raised, $330k CoH; Richard Pombo (R) - $351k raised, $1.05m CoH
NC-08: Larry Kissell (D) - $135k raised, $35 CoH (that's not a typo); Robin Hayes (R) - $149k raised, $794k CoH
NH-02: Paul Hodes (D) - $160k raised, $56k CoH; Charile Bass (R) - $83k raised, $332k CoH
CA-04: Charlie Brown (D) - $416k raised, $382k CoH; John Doolittle (R) - $207k raised, $712k CoH
OH-12: Bob Shamansky (D) - $424k raised, $629k CoH; Pat Tiberi (R) - $152k raised, $869k CoH
CO-05: Jay Fawcett (D) - $132k raised, $93k CoH; Doug Lamborn (R) - $84k raised, $44k CoH
NE-03: Scott Kleeb (D) - $105k raised, $191k CoH; Adrian Smith (R) - $90k raised, $185k CoH
NY-29: Eric Massa (D) - $171k raised, $341k CoH; Randy Kuhl (R) - $66k raised, $232k CoH
WY-AL: Gary Trauner (D) - $94k raised, $190k CoH; Barbara Cubin (R) - $151k raised, $273k CoH
NY-19: John Hall (D) - $226k raised, $132k CoH; Sue Kelly (R) - $121k raised, $990k CoH
AZ-01: Ellen Simon (D) - $335k raised, $67k CoH; Rick Renzi (R) - $236k raised, $674k CoH
IL-14: John Laesch (D) - $99k raised, $82k CoH; Dennis Hastert (R) - $136k raised, $454k CoH
There's plenty more where that came from. Like David says above, the netroots candidates can really use some love right now to give them an extra boost for that final week.
Posted at 01:24 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 26, 2006
DCCC Hones in on New York: Mejias, Hall, Davis, and Massa Added to Red to Blue
Posted by James L.Perhaps sensing a once in a generation opportunity to paint as many as seven Republican districts in New York blue this cycle, the DCCC has just added Dave Mejias (NY-03), John Hall (NY-19), Jack Davis (NY-26), and Eric Massa (NY-29) to the Red to Blue program (see Jesse Lee's posts here and here). With the election a week and a half away, this would've been more significant had it been announced a few weeks ago, but hopefully it should lend these four guys an extra surge against their embattled opponents. With Sue Kelly (NY-19) running away from the local media (and taking some absolutely blistering criticism for it), Peter King (NY-03) labelling the AARP and NAACP "extremist organizations", Tom Reynolds reeling from his role in the Mark Foley cover-up, and Randy Kuhl (NY-29), um, being his crazy self, the time is ripe to turn New York state solidly blue.
Posted at 04:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
IN-03: What's Happening Here?
Posted by James L.Not so long ago, the DCCC added Tom Hayhurst, the Democratic longshot challenger to Republican Mark Souder in Indiana's 3rd district to its list of Emerging Races. At the time, I was skeptical, being inclined to believe that the move was merely a recognition of Hayhurst's fairly good fundraising more than anything else. Hayhurst has raised $592k (of which $200k came from his own pockets) as of September 30th, nearly doubling what the lackadaisical Souder has raised this cycle. But in a district that delivered 68% of its vote to Bush two years ago, I figured his inclusion was meant more as a pat on the back rather than an indication that this seat was seriously in play.
I might have to change my mind, though, after I read this Hotline piece, detailing the NRCC's decision to buy $72,000 worth of ad time for Souder. That's not a large amount, but at the same time, it shouldn't be necessary for the NRCC to buy any ad time at all in a district this reliably Republican.
The NRCC is fanning their money around wide. Mighty wide, it seems, for a piece of it to end up defending their hold on IN-03.
PS: For a taste of what Hayhurst is spending his money on, here's one of his campaign commercials. It's pretty good.
Posted at 06:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Indiana | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NRCC/NRSC Target List Leaked?
Posted by James L.Chris Bowers has managed to score a stunning leak from the GOP: a seemingly full list (although it looks about a week out of date) of seats that the NRSC and NRCC are defending and targeting this cycle, complete with internal "rankings" of the likelihood of these seats changing hands.
The preliminary findings: they've written off Conrad Burns and Michael Steele in the Senate, and Graf, Sekula-Gibs, Padgett and Sherwood in the House, while also identifying 2 other Senate seats and 10 other House seats as leaning towards Democratic control.
Check it out; it's well worth a look. One of the most eye-opening things is that the NRCC is listing OH-02 as a toss-up (a race that the DCCC has yet to intervene in, although the NRCC mysteriously lists it as a race with DCCC ads, according to Bowers' chart).
Update: On second thought, doesn't this thing seem like it's a pile of bullshit? The DCCC is NOT running ads against Walsh, Schmidt, Bass, Porter, or Schmidt, contrary to what this list is telling you. There is no way the NRCC could be that sloppy.
Posted at 05:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-02: Going for the Jugular
Posted by James L.I think that about sums it up. On the web: Dr. Vic Wulsin for Congress
Posted at 04:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 23, 2006
WY-AL: Barbara Cubin is Despicable
Posted by DavidNYCThe verbal sparring between two candidates for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat didn't end when the televised debate ended Sunday evening.Immediately after the lights and cameras shut down, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin walked to Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin, who had criticized her for receiving contributions from former House Speaker Tom Delay, R-Texas.
"'If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face,'" Cubin told Rankin, he said Monday.
Rankin suffers from multiple sclerosis. "That chair" is the wheelchair he uses. I'm just in disbelief.
Barbara Cubin is a despicable, disgusting human being - and I think I'm being too polite. I sure as hell hope netroots candidate Gary Trauner sends her into early retirement next month.
(Via the DCCC.)
Posted at 11:07 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Wyoming | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 21, 2006
ID-01: Club For Growth Bails Out Endangered Sali
Posted by James L.Man oh man; I love it when an extremist Republican scheme backfires, especially when we're talking about the dogmatic anti-government agenda of the Club For Growth. Knowing that their extremist politics could only stand the chance of finding recognition in the most conservative of districts, the Club For Growth targeted primaries in solid Republican districts like NV-02 (R+7.5), NE-03 (R+23.6), and CO-05 (R+15.7), backing the most rigidly conservative and anti-government candidates they could find. The only problem, though, is that the Club has picked less than top-shelf candidates to act as their ideological flag-bearers in deep Republican territory. In Idaho's 1st district, as everyone knows by now, CFG members funneled $350k to onesuch flawed candidate, state Rep. Bill Sali, and spent an additional $133k on independent expenditure ads to help him eke out an underwhelming 26% victory in a crowded Republican primary back in May.
The story was supposed to end there. The Republican primary was supposed to be the real election, given that this district delivered nearly 70% of its vote to Bush in 2004. But an energetic and committed core of local Democratic activists and organizers were not willing to let an embarrassment like Sali become their next voice in Washington, and rallied around the upstart candidacy of Larry Grant, a respected local business leader. (The netroots entered the fray in August.) And with Sali's divisive and unproductive reputation preceding him, Sali has failed to gain much traction.
With several polls showing Grant nipping at Sali's heels, the NRCC has dumped almost $200k into this state in order to prevent a Democratic rout in Idaho, according to the latest FEC filings. And they're not done yet: the Club For Growth has scurried back into the fray, pumping in an emergency transfusion of $180k for oppositional TV ads against Grant earlier today. And knowing the Club For Growth, they're going to be leaving their kid gloves at home. Grant is within striking distance of costing them a crucial ally in the House, and they're not happy about it.
The Republican scramble to defend this GOP bastion is nothing short of remarkable in a district this red, but Grant is in danger of having his message swamped out by the NRCC and the Club For Growth. If I were running expenditures at the DCCC, I wouldn't pass this opportunity up. A candidate as bad as Sali is just too rare of an opportunity to let slip away. All the DCCC has to do is run an ad or two featuring Republican testimonials of Sali. Here are a few choice examples:
• "That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn’t have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body." (GOP Speaker of the Idaho House, Bruce Newcomb)
• "I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress." (GOP Canyon County commissioner Robert Vasquez).
Alternately, one could just quote Sali himself:
• "With deep thinking and memory recall, I start getting real bad brain fade, and definitely some speech problems," placed side by side with his claim that "[for] much of the time in the Legislature, critical-thinking skills are not necessarily needed."
Bill Sali: his entire political career is a negative advertisement waiting to be written.
UPDATE: Whoa! It looks like Larry is two steps ahead of me. Check out this blistering attack ad hosted by the DCCC here. It hits on everything I wanted to see.
Posted at 07:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-03, NY-19: New York Times Endorses Mejias & Hall
Posted by DavidNYCCognizant of all the ususal disclaimers about endorsements, let me just say that this is a nice bit of news for both Dave Mejias and John Hall. The Times often likes to endorse Republican incumbents for irritating, silly reasons (seniority, "thoughtfulness," etc.), so it's nice to see they've taken the right side in both of these races. Because the Times produces separate local editions for both Westchester and Long Island, these endorsements should help boost both candidates' name rec.
No links yet, but some excerpts from each below the fold.
Mejias:
Mr. Mejias is one of the few bright bulbs in the low-watt Nassau Legislature. He helped to create a bill of rights for domestic workers in Nassau, requiring that employers give them written statement of their rights under federal and state law. He has a good environmental record, particularly in efforts to preserve open space, and has been an important ally of County Executive Thomas Suozzi in restoring fiscal discipline to Nassau government. He promises to be a refreshing change in the Third District, and we endorse him.
Hall:
The New York Times has endorsed John Hall for US Congress in the 19th District and calls him “a lawmaker of energy, steady conviction and clear principles” and “the obvious choice” in an editorial that will be published in the paper’s Westchester section tomorrow, Sunday, October 22.The 500-plus word editorial endorsement in the Times notes that Hall, who has been “politically engaged for decades,” emerged from the Democratic primary race with “a resounding victory,” thanks to an “ambitious and coherent” platform that “calls for universal health coverage, a return to fiscal discipline and a full-bore national effort to achieve energy independence.”
Posted at 04:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 19, 2006
NH-02: My Favorite Mailer This Year
Posted by DavidNYCI'm an incredibly tough critic when it comes to humor. But this Hodes mailer is both incredibly well done and very clever. It's easily my favorite piece of snail mail this election:
Totally excellent. I've posted the second page of the flyer below the fold. And follow these links to find larger versions of the front and back.
Posted at 11:25 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
AZ-05: Hayworth Surrogate to Jews: "No wonder there are anti-Semites"
Posted by DavidNYCYou won't believe what two JD Hayworth surrogates said to (and about) Jews - while filling in for their candidate at an event at a synagogue:
Unable to defend his repeated praise of Henry Ford's anti-Semitic "Americanization" program, U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth bailed on a scheduled campaign appearance Tuesday evening only to send in his place surrogates who repeatedly lectured the audience at Temple Beth Israel in Scottsdale and proclaimed that Hayworth "is a more observant Jew" than those present. [Source: Arizona Republic, Oct. 17, 2006]The comment by Jonathan Tratt, a spokesman for the Hayworth campaign, drew loud and angry boos and caused nearly three-quarters of the crowd of more than 200 to walk out in disgust. After the walkout, another Hayworth surrogate, Irit Tratt, stood on the Temple's bimah as she told members of the audience who gathered to ask questions, "No wonder there are anti-Semites."
I'm just speechless.
(Via the DCCC.)
Posted at 10:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
House and Senate Races Round-up: Cash, Ratings Changes, Polls & More!
Posted by James L.So much news has been buzzing around this week, and boy, has it ever been difficult to restrain myself and study for my midterms while the walls of Fortress GOP come tumbling down. But now that I have a little spare time, let's take a look at recent developments:
• MT-Sen: Harry Reid has promised Jon Tester a seat on the Appropriations Committee should he defeat Conrad Burns this November. Tester has promised to make sure that Montana gets its fair share of earmarks, while at the same time ensuring that the process receives "full public scrutiny". Seems like it could be a tough balancing act for most unprincipled politicians, but something about Jon Tester feels different. This development should help boost his argument that Montana has nothing to lose by embracing change this year.
• Party committee fundraising receipts are in for the month of September: the DCCC raised $14.4m and entered October with $36m cash-on-hand. The DSCC raised $13.6m and had $23m CoH as the month began. The DNC raised $5.6m in September (with an additional $1m coming in during the last two days, reportedly) and entered October with $8.6m CoH. The DNC has taken out a loan in the ballpark of $5m to $10m to help aid the DSCC's efforts to run the table in the Senate (a very wise strategy), and also expects to spend $25m on "election day activities".
Meanwhile, the NRCC raised $12m in September, and ended the month with $40m CoH. The NRSC raised an underwhelming $5.1m and trailed the DSCC in CoH as well, with $12m in the bank. The RNC had a formidable $26m CoH, and they plan to push a large chunk of that money into shoring up their Senate seats (a job that the NRSC is haplessly underperforming at).
The DCCC has made some noises about taking out a large loan and pumping money into 2nd tier districts, but their most recent expenditure--$12 million--has mostly been funneled to top-tier targets. The clock is ticking on the chance to expand the battlefield. In 2004, the DCCC took out a loan to help fund for its defense of redistricted incumbents in Texas (a largely futile task, save for the defense of Chet Edwards), and I see no reason not to turn the tables around and launch a salvo deep into 2nd and 3rd tier territory. I'm sure that the DCCC has more planned--a lot more--but the exact scope is not yet clear.
• Ratings changes galore! Charlie Cook (10/18):
ID-Gov (OPEN): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
RI-Gov (Carcieri): Lean Republican to Toss Up
TX-Gov (Perry): Solid Republican to Likely RepublicanHOUSE RATINGS CHANGE:
AZ-01 (Renzi): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-50 (Bilbray): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
ID-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
KS-02 (Ryun): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CQ Politics (in the last 7 days):
WA-08 (Reichert): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
PA-04 (Hart): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
NE-03 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
PA-07 (Weldon): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
ID-01 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
CO-Gov (OPEN): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
RI-Sen (Chafee): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
NM-01 (Wilson): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
OH-15 (Pryce): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
NC-11 (Taylor): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
MA-Gov (Open): No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored
• NY-26: From the seemingly Bad News Dept., SUSA has a new poll showing Tom Reynolds back on top of Jack Davis, by a 49-46 margin. That's still pretty hairy, and SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points, indicating that this race is even tighter than these numbers suggest. I'd wait for another poll (which SUSA promises shortly) before making too many assumptions. But one assumption that would be unhealthy for us to make is that Tom Reynolds' political career is over.
• KY-03: From the Great News Dept., SUSA has another poll showing Democratic challenger John Yarmuth running neck-and-neck with entrenched Republican incumbent Anne Northup (likely voters, 9/29 results in parens):
John Yarmuth (D): 48 (44)
Anne Northup (R-Inc.): 47 (50)
MoE: ±4.3%
Lots of people wrote Yarmuth off, including me, given Northup's solid cred as a battle-tested, effective campaigner. It looks like we could end up with a big egg on our faces, though. (One guy who never did, however, is the Bluegrass Report's Mark Nickolas.) From a distance, Northup's campaign doesn't seem to be engaging Yarmuth effectively, and the Democratic lean of Louisville is putting her at serious risk this year. Northup still has an insane amount of resources to spend on apocalyptic TV ads, and it might help her seal the deal. Or it may not. If you're in the area, Get Out The Vote. This election is about picking up as much low-hanging fruit as possible--it's about base motivation. The Republicans appear to be ready for the challenge. How about the Democrats? It's up to you to write that story.
Posted at 05:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
TX-17: NRCC Retreats, Circles the Wagons in... Idaho?
Posted by James L.Another quick 'n' dirty update (I've got a major midterm tomorrow): from the indispensable Burnt Orange Report comes word of a full-scale retreat by the National Republican Campaign Committee in TX-17, home of the perennially-targeted Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards:
According to five television stations in the DFW market, the NRCC on Monday canceled its planned television ad buy on behalf of Taylor. The cancelled Taylor buy was valued at over $1.5 million and was scheduled to run in the last two weeks of the campaign.
One by one, Republicans are cutting the lifelines of even their most top-tier challengers, and focusing on precarious seats in purplish states like... Idaho. Yes, Idaho, home of one of the most surprisingly competitive congressional races this cycle:
At the same time, the National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday began buying tens of thousands of dollars of television airtime across the district to run a last-minute advertising blitz beginning today, broadcasters said. Democratic candidate Larry Grant said Idaho airwaves will be flooded with attack ads targeting him because Republicans are panicking.“Our understanding is the NRCC has produced a negative ad, and they bought almost $400,000 to run these ads against me,” Grant said. “I think most folks are going to understand they are in trouble.”
$400,000 on a district that delivered 70% of its vote for Bush in 2004. Chew on that one. With the Republicans losing confidence in Van Taylor's campaign in TX-17 (a district that is just as Republican as ID-01), how often do we see the NRCC nervous about their ability to win in districts that have delivered 70% of their vote to Bush?
For just a taste of how awful Idaho Republican candidate Bill Sali is as a politician, check out his statement from four years ago on his mental affliction that he curiously refers to as "brain fade".
Posted at 04:24 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 16, 2006
AZ-05, CA-50, MN-02, NM-01: SUSA Shows Huge Movement for Democratic Challengers
Posted by James L.Survey USA has four hot new polls out today, each showing a signficant bump for Democratic challengers:
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 45, Hayworth (R) 48
CA-50: Busby (D) 46, Bilbray (R) 49
MN-02: Rowley (DFL) 42, Kline (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45
I'd put up trendlines, etc, but I'm pressed for time. Here's the money quote, though:
In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.
How crazy would it be if an underfunded, unnoticed Busby managed to knock out Bilbray the second time around? While I still think it's quite unlikely, with numbers like these, it all depends on base motivation. You go, girl!
Posted at 09:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Mexico | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
NH-02: Charlie Bass Steps in Some Macaca
Posted by DavidNYCAh, Charlie Bass. Lately he's shown exactly how weak his grey matter is. Now, he's gone a step further and shown a strong preference for the taste of his own feet. Just the other day, he managed to insult Bernie Sanders, his supporters, and New Yorkers all in one fell swoop:
"Oh, it's going to be nice not to have Hugo Chavez across the Connecticut river, representing Vermont at large. Bernie Sanders and his Sandernistas, go back to taxi driving in the Bronx of New York City, where they came from to begin with".
Watch the video here:
The line - delivered in a hostile, sneering tone - comes about 35 seconds in and is greeted with hearty applause. To my ears, this is some not-so-thinly veiled racist fear-mongering, given that the Bronx is a predominantly black and Hispanic borough. The choice of the phrase "taxi drivers" also stands out. It's a double-whammy: Bass readily mocks hard-working people he views as "beneath" his own lofty station, and he singles out for derision a group composed largely of immigrants. It's no surprise that the faux-moderate Bass holds such ugly views - they are typical of Republican office-holders.
It's also no surprise that Bass, yet again, manages to show how stupid he is. First off, Sanders is from Brooklyn, not the Bronx. But, more importantly, Bernie is still gonna be representing Vermont "at large" next year. Is Charlie not aware that Sanders is running for the Senate this year, and is leading by huge margins in every single poll? Considering that Charlie Bass has still not released any of his internal polls this year, perhaps he's just no longer familiar with the general concept of public opinion surveys.
Like I say, when it comes to Charlie Bass, nothing surprises me. But if he wants to pick a fight with all of New York City, bring it on. As we like to say around here, "Yeah? You and what army?"
Posted at 10:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
NRCC Stretching to Defend Expanding Playing Field
Posted by James L.From the Hotline:
Competitive races are popping up in some very surprising places.The NRCC just began direct-mail hits against Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and CA 50's Francine Busby (remember her?). Republicans are phone banking against Charlie Brown (CA 04) and have spent nearly $500K against Jerry McNerney (CA 11). These were hardly top targets even one month ago.
A new Mason-Dixon poll demonstrates how races are popping up in unusual territory. In CO 05, which has never elected a Democrat, Jay Fawcett (D) is tied with state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) at 37%.
How much more of this can Republicans take? Spending resources against people like Francine Busby (I can hardly believe it), Charlie Brown, and Jerry McNerney--all challengers facing uphill climbs in strongly Republican districts in California--is definitely not something the NRCC had in mind a month ago. I've been reluctant to predict that we'll see a "wave" election this fall, but the NRCC is scrambling to deal with one. The receipts don't lie.
But for Democrats to take advantage of the NRCC spreading its defensive game thin, the DCCC is going to need even more resources than what they've got already. Markos has it right: House Democrats sitting on large warchests in safe districts need to give, and give generously, today (I'm looking at you, Rob Andrews) to help secure a Democratic House this November.
Posted at 04:58 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-12: Hilarious Shamansky Ad
Posted by James L.Here's something pretty rare: a genuinely funny campaign commercial. This one's from former Rep. Bob Shamansky, and goes right for the jugular of incumbent Rep. Pat Tiberi--only with a liberal dose of humor that made JibJab such a craze two years ago.
Awesome. Just awesome. At 78 years old, Bob Shamansky is one of the unlikeliest candidates for Congress this year. Shamansky actually originally contested this seat in 1966 (that's not a typo) unsuccessfully, but did manage to knock off 10-term incumbent Rep. Samuel Devine in 1980, before redistricting forced his defeat just two years later. Now, Bob's back to challenge Republican congressman Pat Tiberi in a district that's more favorable for Democrats since Bush edged Gore here by a 51-46% margin in 2000. Due to extensive voter registration efforts by local Democrats and changing demographics in Franklin County, Bush squeaked by with 51% to Kerry's 49% in 2004. While this is certainly not the likeliest of House Democratic pick-ups, Shamansky has put up a respectable amount of his own money into this race, and with the mood of the Ohio and national electorate turning sour for Republicans, you never know about a seat like this.
Crazier things have happened.
Posted at 12:44 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 09, 2006
NY-26: CQ Makes a Dramatic Rating Change
Posted by James L.From Leans Republican to Leans Democratic. Wowza.
The scandal surrounding resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley and the salacious messages he sent to underage congressional pages has engulfed Washington, D.C., and reordered the already pitched partisan battle for control of the House.And nowhere is that more true than in New York’s 26th District, where the re-election prospects of four-term Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds — head of the Republicans’ national House campaign organization — have seen a stunning reversal of fortune. The controversy over Reynolds’ handling of information about Foley’s activities has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican.
That switch comes just one week after CQPolitics.com downgraded Reynolds to Leans Republican from Safe Republican — a position where Reynolds had comfortably resided prior to Foley’s abrupt Sept. 29 resignation.
National Republican Campaign Committee chairman Tom Reynolds is in such a bind that CQ is calling him the underdog now. That's no small feat for a formerly popular Republican in a district that only gave 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. In the wake of Reynolds' involvement in covering up Mark Foley's predatory behavior in Congress (with Reynolds even going so far as to ask Foley to run again after he learned of inappropriate e-mail messages sent from Foley to a 16 year-old boy), CQ notes that national 527s and PACs like Majority Action and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees are pushing Reynolds' pressure points hard. To hear Majority Action's no holds barred radio ad slamming Reynolds' role in the Foley cover-up scandal, click here. I'd love to see AFSCME's ad, but I have yet to see a copy of it distributed online.
This is what striking at the head of the serpent looks like.
Posted at 06:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Gallup: Democrats Have a 23-Point Lead
Posted by James L.Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.
The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.
Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.
She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."
Last month, Gallup had Democrats and Republicans tied at 48% each among likely voters. There are lots of caveats about generic ballot polls--namely, the pesky tendency for voters to voice their party preference, and yet remain reluctant to actually fire their incumbent Representative at the polls. Still, 23 points is full-scale disaster territory. Even the much-vaunted GOP turnout operation can't stop that kind of bleeding.
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-05: Nancy Johnson = Pure Evil
Posted by James L.It's a tough call, but for some reason, Connecticut's Nancy Johnson is the Republican House member I despise most. I'm not talking about ordinary, banal Republican evil. I'm talking about Satan's stooge-type evil. Maybe it was her tasteless campaign commercial that re-enacted a 9/11 funeral service, or maybe it was her disgustingly misleading campaign ad saying that because Chris Murphy opposes illegal wiretapping, he also opposes prompt surveillance of terrorist communications. (It's a totally ludicrous claim, of course--there's no stopping warrants from being sought AFTER the wiretap was conducted.) But this statement from Johnson on the House Republican cover-up of the Mark Foley scandal takes the cake:
If any leader from either party tried to cover up this information at the expense of the safety of our children, then they should resign their position immediately.It would be reprehensible if any Republican leader intentionally covered up the full facts of the case, and it would be equally reprehensible if Democrat leaders sat on this information for a year in order to release it 30 days before an election.
I want an investigation to go forward to find out answers to these questions.
There are probably a dozen ridiculous things about this statement, but let's point out the obvious ones. As ctblogger notes, Johnson throws out a completely baseless insinuation that Democrats had access to Mark Foley's predatory e-mails and IMs, when there is no evidence of the sort. Where does she get off throwing her party's dirty laundry into the Democrats' backyard? Completely despicable. Secondly, Nancy Johnson knows goddamn well that Democrats didn't leak Foley's e-mails to the media; Republican sources did, according to both The Hill and ABC's Brian Ross. So Nancy Johnson gets to lie through her teeth merely by "raising the question" of whether or not "Democrat leaders" leaked this information for electoral purposes. And to top it all off, she spits all this bile while somehow clinging to a "grandmotherly" image of care and moderation.
It's a good thing none of Johnson's TV ads show her facing away from the camera--otherwise her demonic horns might have been revealed.
Posted at 01:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 07, 2006
ID-01: Another Republican Takes Aim at Sali
Posted by James L.The race for Idaho's first congressional district is one of the craziest scenarios this cycle. Just how awful must Bill Sali, the Republican nominee, be to give his Democratic opponent (netroots candidate Larry Grant) a chance to wage a competitive campaign for this open seat that delivered 69% of its vote to Bush in 2004? Pretty awful.
After squeaking out a victory with 26% of the vote in a very crowded GOP primary back in May, Sali's reputation as the embarrassment of the state House ("an absolute idiot" according to the Republican Speaker) hasn't done him any favors in his general election campaign. And now, Sali's runner-up in the primary, county commissioner Robert Vasquez (who is actually now waging a primary challenge to Sen. Larry Craig for the '08 nomination), is quite willing to bash Sali senseless in front of any reporter willing to listen:
Vasquez also took aim at Bill Sali, the Republican candidate for the 1st Congressional District who defeated Vasquez in a six-way primary election. Sali took nearly 26 percent of the vote, Vasquez took 18.5 percent. The commissioner said that if both he and Sali end up representing Idaho at the nation's capital, he would not work with Sali on any legislation."I would have no problem working with any other member of Idaho's delegation," Vasquez said. "I cannot in my wildest imaging contemplate any issue that Bill Sali would champion that would be beneficial to Idaho or the United States of America instead of big business corporations."
The Spokesman-Review blog has more:
Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he’d never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, “I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress.”
Ouch. Meanwhile, Alan at Idablue has managed to find some of Sali's campaign paraphernalia.
Posted at 10:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 06, 2006
Recent CQ Ratings Changes
Posted by James L.CQ is the most risk-averse of all the major prognosticators, making changes to their House and Senate race ratings only when they're absolutely sure that conditions have changed significantly in each particular constituency. Bowers suggests that this equates to wearing Republican-tinted glasses, but really, it says more to CQ's timidity and respect for conventional wisdom surrounding the near-invincibility of incumbents. So when CQ actually musters the guts to change their ratings, even incrementally, it's worth a look.
Here's everything I've seen in the past week:
CA-Gov (Schwarzenegger-R v. Angelides-D): No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican
CA-04 (Doolittle-R v. Brown-D): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
CA-11 (Pombo-R v. McNerney-D): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
CO-05 (OPEN; Lamborn-R v. Fawcett-D): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
FL-16 (Foley/Negron-R v. Mahoney-D): Safe Republican to No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
FL-22 (Shaw-R v. Klein-D): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
NJ-07 (Ferguson-R v. Stender-D): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
NY-26 (Reynolds-R v. Davis-D): Safe Republican to Leans Republican
NC-11 (Taylor-R v. Shuler-D): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
The Mark Foley cover-up scandal gave CQ the cover to make a few badly-needed revisions, but I still find FL-22 a little eyebrow-raising. (Or maybe I'm the one who's timid.) It's pretty amazing that they took this long to downgrade the competitiveness of CA-Gov, though. Anyone who was anyone knew that race was over as soon as the Democratic primary got irrevocably ugly, making the Governator look refreshing in comparison.
UPDATE: CQ has made a few ratings changes this afternoon, moving MN-Sen and AZ-08 into the "Democrat Favored" column from No Clear Favorite.
UPDATE (David): Gonna add some Cook (not CQ) ratings changes to this post:
AK-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Republican
AR-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
CO-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MA-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MN-Gov (Pawlenty): Lean Republican to Toss UpCA-04 (Doolittle): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CA-11 (Pombo): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CO-04 (Musgrave): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-13 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
KY-02 (Lewis): Solid Republican to Lean Republican
MN-06 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
NV-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-26 (Reynolds): Solid Republican to Toss Up
NC-08 (Hayes): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-04 (Hart): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-07 (Weldon): Lean Republican to Toss Up
PA-10 (Sherwood): Lean Republican to Toss Up
WA-08 (Reichert): Lean Republican to Toss Up
WI-08 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
This is the most volatile set of House ratings changes I've seen from Amy Walter (sub. req.) this cycle. (The gubernatorial rankings are courtesy Jennifer Duffy.) A few things to note. One, this is the first time I've seen Amy move a race more than one notch at a time - she pushes KY-02 from Solid R to Lean R (bypassing Likely R), and shifts NY-26 all the way from Solid R to Toss Up (a full three-column shift). Personally, I would have had NY-26 at Likely R all along, but this is still a big move.
KY-02, though, is almost an even better example of how quickly the CW can change in any given district. Less than three weeks ago - on Sept. 20th - Walter moved the race from Likely R to Solid R. Now she pushes it right back, and then some. All in all, though, this list is clearly a great sign for Democrats.
Posted at 04:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 05, 2006
NY-26: NRCC Chairman Reynolds on Brink of Defeat
Posted by James L.In the wake of scandalous headlines and embarrassing press conferences, it's no wonder that NRCC chair Tom Reynolds is reduced to a sweating, blubbering apologist for his role in the House Republican Leadership cover-up of Mark Foley's predatory advances towards congressional pages. Here's one more reason for Reynolds to toss and turn tonight (SUSA, likely voters, 9/28 in parens):
Jack Davis (D): 50 (43)
Tom Reynolds (R-Inc.): 45 (45)
MoE: ±4.6%
How sweet it is: the man in charge of co-ordinating the defensive strategy for House Republican incumbents this fall is on the path towards losing his own seat. Jack Davis, who captured a surprisingly good 44% of the vote here in 2004 (where he outperformed Kerry by 1%) and can self-fund this year's bid, is poised to strike a decapitating blow for Democrats this November.
PS: Sorry for the slowness this week--I have a huge economics exam tomorrow, so I'll be hunkered down in my vice-presidential bunker for a good 24 hours.
Posted at 04:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Reuters House Race Polls
Posted by James L.Check them out here. I have to run to class, so I can't post the breakdown here just yet. From a quick skimming, the results are shockingly good for Democrats--Democratic candidates hold leads in almost every key race polled (surprisingly, Ken Lucas being a notable exception). Too good, maybe.
Update: Okay, now I realize why these polls are so favorable for Democrats--that pinko Zogby did them. (I'm being facetious, of course, but Zogby has been known to produce results that often tilt slightly towards Democratic candidates over most other polls.)
Posted at 12:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Creepy Old Men Defending Creepy Old Men
Posted by James L.
One of the worst aspects of the media swarm on the House Republican cover-up of Rep. Mark Foley's predatory relationship with young congressional pages for the GOP this fall has got to be the face of Dennis Hastert.
Parents are grasping to rationalize how the House Republican leadership, who knew of Foley's creepy come-ons to underage pages for at least a year before ABC news busted the story wide open, could let Foley off with only a "warning" rather than a serious investigation. When they turn on their TVs, when the open their daily newspapers, Hastert's face is all over the coverage of this scandal. There's got to be something unsettling for parents to see old men like Hastert spin and lie as they stubbornly refuse to accept responsibility for their failure to protect children working in Congress. And with Hastert refusing to step down as Speaker, he will remain in the media's crosshairs as more sickening details surrounding Foley's conduct are revealed and the House Republican Leadership's failures to protect children are questioned even harder. The GOP has no one at the top with a motherly image to do damage control: Hastert, Boehner, Reynolds, Shimkus... all negligent old men defending their irresponsible attitude towards child sex predators on Capitol Hill. And yes, when Dennis Hastert slams the abused former pages for speaking up on Foley, saying that they're threatening the Republicans' capacity to keep America safe from terrorism, you're goddamned right that I'm calling him a creep, too.
Posted at 06:09 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Illinois | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 02, 2006
TX-22: Nick Lampson Calls on NRCC to Protect Exploited Children
Posted by James L.David gave me the day off today, but I just can't sit in my seat and not share this news with you. On Friday, when the explosive revelations surrounding Republican Rep. Mark Foley's predatory relationship with young male pages--and the cover-up by the enabling and irresponsible House Republican Leadership--were revealed, Swing State Project took the lead in demanding that Mark Foley and the NRCC atone for their actions by donating the $2.7 million+ warchest that Foley had amassed for his re-election. I have no doubt that the NRCC would gladly suck up the $2.7 million warchest of a sexual predator, so it's time for our voices to be heard: Republicans must turn over their tainted money to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children or a similar credible charity that protects exploited children.
One strong voice that has emerged on this matter is former Congressman Nick Lampson, who originally founded the Congressional Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children (the same Caucus that Foley would go on to shamefully taint). Lampson has set up a great action page that helps you send a message to Republicans that using Foley's tainted $2.7 million to help protect vulnerable incumbents this fall is unacceptable:
Today, I sent a letter to my opponent asking her to join me in calling for the resignation of any member of congressional leadership who had knowledge of inappropriate email and instant messenger communications between shamed Congressman Mark Foley and underage pages working at the House of Representatives. I urged my opponent to donate the funds she recently received from Congressman Tom Reynolds, who has admitted he knew of the situation and did nothing about it and from any others in congressional leadership who had prior knowledge of Mr. Foley's actions to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.Now, we find out that the national Republicans are quick to condemn Congressman Foley, but are willing to accept the $2.7 million campaign war chest Mr. Foley has amassed. On Sunday, Carl Forti, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said "that the committee would gladly accept Mr. Foley's money or part of it to devote to House races." [New York Times, 10/2/06]
That's despicable.
Please join me in calling on Mr. Foley and the NRCC to donate his $2.7 million campaign war chest to the National Center for Missing Exploited Children.
Lampson is stepping up aggressively on this issue, and I'd like every single Democratic challenger to follow. I want Democrats to demand that their Republican opponents return any money that Foley donated to them. I want Democrats to demand that the NRCC not take ownership of the campaign warchest of a sexual predator. And furthermore, I want to see a lot more press releases like this one:
"Congressman Foley was a member of our Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus and even rose to chair that organization," Lampson said. "Because of our involvement in that caucus, I feel utterly betrayed by these revelations. This is simply disgusting, and the fact that Congressional leaders knew about the allegations and actively worked to cover them up is an outrage. Any member of congressional leadership who knew about these allegations and failed to act should resign from Congress immediately." (Emphasis added.)
Posted at 04:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 29, 2006
FL-16: Tell Mark Foley to Donate His Campaign Account to Charity
Posted by James L.After issuing a flurry of self-righteous, outraged denials last night, Mark Foley is resigning from Congress today after realizing that he won't be able to stop the full exposure of the extent of his inappropriate and predatory advances towards current and former Congressional pages under the age of 18. That a Congressman would abuse his position of authority to make predatory advances to 16-year-olds is one of the most shameful stains on political office imaginable. This requires more than a resignation: this requires atonement.
In the comments section, Democraticavenger points out that Mark Foley's campaign cash will likely find its way back into the National Republican Campaign Committee's coffers, much like how former CA-50 Rep. Duke Cunningham spread his campaign cash before he began his prison term. If Foley had any sense of remorse, or any sense of shame, he would surrender all $2.8 million of his cash-on-hand (Aug. 16 numbers) to charities for exploited children. The National Center for Missing & Exploited Children would be a great and obvious choice, but I'm sure that there are many other worthy charities for exploited children in Florida that Foley could contribute his campaign stash to, as well.
If you're from Florida, please use this tool to write Mark Foley or call him at one of the numbers listed below and demand that he apologize in a meaningful way by donating his political funds to children's charities. If you're not from Florida, please call his D.C. office and share the same sentiments.
Washington, DC
202-225-5792
202-225-3132 (fax)Palm Beach County
561-627-6192
561-626-4749 (fax)St. Lucie County
772-878-3181
772-871-0651 (fax)Charlotte County
941-627-9100
941-627-9101 (fax)Highlands County
863-471-1813
Posted at 04:50 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Florida | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
FL-16: Foley Resigning! (headline updated)
Posted by DavidNYCThis banner is up on CNN right now:
Republican Rep. Mark Foley of Florida will not run for reelection amid questions about e-mails he sent to a former Capitol Hill page, Republican sources say.
More news as it breaks. Let's hope this is accurate.
UPDATE: ABC's blog is reporting the same:
Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) planned to resign today, hours after ABC questioned him about sexually explicit internet messages with current and former Congressional pages under the age of 18.A spokesman for Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, said the congressman submitted his resignation in a letter late this afternoon to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.
Hours earlier, ABC News had read excerpts of instant messages provided by former pages who said the congressman, under the AOL Instant Messenger screen name Maf54, made repeated references to sexual organs and acts.
Check out that last graf. Wow.
UPDATE: So, what happens? Section 100.111(4)(a) of the Florida election code, courtesy Adam B.:
"In the event that death, resignation, withdrawal, removal, or any other cause or event should cause a party to have a vacancy in nomination which leaves no candidate for an office from such party, the Department of State shall notify the chair of the appropriate state, district, or county political party executive committee of such party; and, within 5 days, the chair shall call a meeting of his or her executive committee to consider designation of a nominee to fill the vacancy.The name of any person so designated shall be submitted to the Department of State within 7 days after notice to the chair in order that the person designated may have his or her name on the ballot of the ensuing general election. If the name of the new nominee is submitted after the certification of results of the preceding primary election, however, the ballots shall not be changed and the former party nominee's name will appear on the ballot.
Any ballots cast for the former party nominee will be counted for the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee. If there is no opposition to the party nominee, the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee will be elected to office at the general election. For purposes of this paragraph, the term "district political party executive committee" means the members of the state executive committee of a political party from hose counties comprising the area involving a district office."
Posted at 03:12 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Florida | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 28, 2006
NY-26: NRCC Chairman tied with Jack Davis (D)
Posted by RBHSurveyUSA released a new poll showing the following results.
Jack Davis (D): 43
Tom Reynolds (R-Inc): 45
Christine Murphy (G): 8
Undecided: 4
MoE: ±4.5%
But, there's a few catches that make this look even better.
1) The Green Party candidate got booted off the ballot during the polling period. She got 8% of Democrats and 20% of Independents. And those votes are more likely to go to Davis than to Reynolds.
2) Reynolds leads with Republicans by a 62/31 margin. In races where your side is outnumbered, it's pretty helpful to get some people from the other side cross over and vote for your guy, especially if you can get 1/3rd of them to cross over.
3) SurveyUSA had a huge Republican sample. In a district where 41% of voters are registered Republicans, their sample was 51% Republican.Needless to say, when it comes to this poll, I would imagine that at worst, it's a tie, and at best, we're on our way to an upset.
So, some of you might be asking "Who the hell is Jack Davis?"
Jack Davis is a business owner who is staunchly opposed to free trade treaties. He ran against Reynolds in 2004, mostly self-financing his campaign, and recieving 44% of the vote.
Davis' website outlines 12 short policy statements which are the basic foundation for his campaign. As well, there's Speeches.
Back in 2004, Davis spent over $1M of his own money. In 2006, he has mentioned spending as much as $2M of his own money. Of course, Reynolds just says that he's trying to buy the seat. Which I would imagine doesn't quite work as well when it comes to someone who is 73 years old. He's spending what it'll take to win, because people like Tom Reynolds upped the ante in campaign spending. Jack Davis probably isn't going to make any fundraising lists, but he is putting this race on the map.
And I can't see any problem in making the Republican House campaign committee chairman concentrate on winning his seat. After all, he'll be spending money in his district, instead of sending it off to help other incumbents.
Posted at 07:22 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, New York, Polls | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Netroots Candidates Poll Round-up
Posted by James L.There are a lot of good reasons to be proud of the netroots candidates this year: 10 of 14 House candidates have been targeted for DCCC support, and polling continues to improve virtually across the board, including for our candidates in WA, MN, and NH.
SurveyUSA released a new poll today showing Darcy Burner running neck-and-neck with freshman incumbent Republican Dave Reichert in Washington's 8th (likely voters):
Darcy Burner (D): 48
Dave Reichert (R-Inc): 50
MoE: ±4.3%
Now, I'd normally put trendlines in here, as SUSA has polled this race before in August and showed Dave Reichert with a comfy 13-point lead. The only problem, though, was that SUSA's August poll was of registered voters, not likely voters (I have no idea why they were casting such a wide net the first time around), so a trend in Burner's favor could very well be less pronounced if she has a natural advantage among likely WA-08 voters. Reichert has a very strong profile in this district, so if we're ever going to knock him off, this has to be our year.
Over in the North Star state, MN Publius has a partially leaked MN-01 poll commissioned by the SEIU:
Tim Walz (D): 46
Gil Gutknecht (R-Inc): 40
Undecided: 14Re-elect Gutknecht: 38
Whoaaa. Maybe this is optimistic, or maybe the MoE is 15%, but you never know. MN-01 is a true swing district at R+0.9, and up until the last national "wave" election in 1994, a Democrat held this seat. The demographics are there for a potential upset, and Walz has been raising more money and bringing more noise to this district than any challenger Gutknecht has faced in recent memory. The DFL is revved up statewide by the Senatorial and Gubernatorial contests, which will be a plus for Walz, too.
And finally, over in David's favorite district, the University of New Hampshire has another poll on the Hodes-Bass battle in NH-02 (likely voters, July in parens):
Hodes (D): 36 (25)
Bass (R-Inc.): 46 (53)
Undecided: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±6.2%)
Now, UNH's polling has been all over the map this year, and it has been noted previously that their methodology is pretty fugly (although their partisan samples are much more reasonable this time), so I have no doubt that the truth is somewhat closer to the DCCC's polls on the race. I say that not only because I trust the Mellman Group more than I trust UNH, but also because the DCCC used this poll in determining whether or not to add Hodes to the Red to Blue program (which they did). Essentially, the D-trip was looking for a good picture on the race, not a stacked deck in Hodes' favor, and what they found was a surprisingly tight contest.
Great movement all around, but let's not rest on our laurels. In case you haven't been following, we need just over 600 more donors to meet our goal of 10,000 by the end of the fundraising cycle this Saturday at midnight. I know we can get there with a bang. If you haven't contributed to one of the netroots candidates this cycle, please consider doing so now--this is our last best chance to give an extra boost to strong Democrats waging uncompromising campaigns nationwide.
Posted at 12:13 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Washington | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
TX-22: New Poll Has Lampson (D) Way in Front
Posted by DavidNYCThere's a new poll out by Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal for the Nick Lampson campaign. Unfortunately, the polling memo (PDF) only has limited details (it doesn't say, for instance, whether we're using RVs or LVs), but I'll pass it along anyway:
Lampson (D): 43
Smither (L): 10
Write-In (Sekula-Gibbs): 14
Write-In (Other): 7
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4.9%)
One other heartening finding is that only 39% of respondents in a generic ballot question said they'd support the Republican. Sekula-Gibbs has a deep well to climb out of, and it looks like she's going to have a hell of a time doing it. But if you really want a full break-down on this survey, go check out Charles Kuffner.
Posted at 01:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NH-02: Charlie Bass Is a Moron
Posted by DavidNYCOrdinarily, I don't go in for such silly titles, but there's no other way to describe Charlie Bass right now. He's up with a new ad attacking Paul Hodes that just boggles the mind. The video isn't available yet, but here's the transcript:
Charlie Bass: I’m Charlie Bass and I approve this message.Voice Over: What’s Paul Hodes’ Plan for Iraq?
Paul Hodes: We cannot just abandon Iraq.
Voice over: Now Hodes says we should pull out.
[AP, 9/12/06]
Paul Hodes: We cannot just abandon Iraq.
Voice Over: So which is it?
Paul Hodes: We cannot just abandon Iraq.
Voice Over: Now, Hodes wants to send troops into Kurdistan. Kudistan? Hodes says he’s got a plan for Iraq.
Paul Hodes: Yeah? And I’ve got some oceanfront property in Arizona to sell.
Voice Over: Sorry Paul, we’re not buying it.
Guess what? KURDISTAN IS IN IRAQ!!! Holy moly! Take a look, in case you don't believe me:
Is Charlie Bass projecting? Does he think that Paul, like the lunatic neocons Bass enables, wants to invade Iran? Or maybe Bass thinks Paul wants to send our troops to Kreplachistan? Like I said above, what a total moron.
Posted at 01:22 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
NH-02: "IndyNH" Was Bass's Policy Director!
Posted by DavidNYCAll along I figured IndyNH had to be some dumb, over-eager intern. Oh no, this was no small fry - this was a big fish:
A lead staffer in U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' office resigned Tuesday after admitting to posting fake messages on political blogs.Tad Furtado, the No. 2 staffer in Bass' Washington office, resigned after it was revealed that he posed as a Democrat on liberal blogs. Bass said that Furtado posed as a supporter of Bass opponent Paul Hodes but then discussed how difficult it would be to beat Bass.
"Tad Furtado posted to political Web sites from my office without my knowledge or authorization," Bass said in a written statement. "I have referred this matter to the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct for their review."
Staff members in Bass' Concord office said they were shocked to hear Furtado was responsible for the postings. He was described as a rising young star and one of the congressman's most trusted staffers.
And oh, check out the last graf:
Because Furtado used a government computer on Capitol Hill, it could represent a violation of House rules, Bass officials said.
Needless to say, I'm never surprised when Republicans engage in unethical, rule-breaking behavior. Indeed, New Hampshire Republicans seem to have a special problem in this regard - recall the huge 2002 phone-jamming scandal, which sent several people to jail. This Tad Furtado is clearly cut from the same cloth as James Tobin. With any luck, Furtado, too, will pay a price for his transgressions.
P.S. Major kudos to MissLaura, Keener and Yankee Doodler for all their efforts on this story. The tradmed has picked it up big-time, including the AP and several local outfits. And, while you're at it, give to netroots candidate Paul Hodes!
UPDATE: The story makes it on to local news. It's a good piece, I think.
Posted at 02:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, September 25, 2006
NY-25: Maffei (D) Makes Stunning Gains in New Poll
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll (PDF) for Dan Maffei's campaign, from the Benenson Strategy Group (likely voters, March in parens):
Maffei (D): 40 (23)
Walsh (R-inc.): 44 (52)
Undecided: 14 (24)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Maffei went from minus 29 to minus 4 - a monster 25-point swing. And Walsh is now well under 50%. This race has received a lot less attention than many others in NY, though I think that's at least in part because New York is so target-rich this year. In any event, this poll - combined with Maffei's addition to the Red-to-Blue list - will no doubt cause more people (myself included) to take greater notice.
With a swing this big, you have to wonder if it's legit. So I'll be curious to see if Walsh responds with a poll of his own. If he doesn't (and he probably won't), then we'll know that Maffei has done something really impressive in this district.
(Hat tip to Pogues Fan.)
Posted at 08:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NH-02: Sock-Puppetry, Polls, and More!
Posted by DavidNYCI'm back from my fantastic honeymoon (the wedding was beyond amazing as well), and after a pleasant Rosh Hashanah, I'm hitting the ground running here. Quite a bit of goings on in my favorite district, NH-02, of late. First, today's big news, from Roll Call (reprinted with permission at Raw Story):
Liberal bloggers in New Hampshire busted an aide to Rep. Charles Bass (R-N.H.) who was posing as a liberal blogger on such blogs as Blue Granite, NH-02 Progressive and others. Bass’ office admitted culpability to HOH and said the staffer would be “appropriately disciplined.”The unnamed aide to Bass — who, like many others in his party, faces a tough re-election fight — was routinely trolling liberal New Hampshire political blogs calling himself “IndyNH” and more commonly IndieNH, pretending to be a progressive.
Finally, after noticing that lots of things he said just didn’t add up, a couple of the bloggers traced IndieNH’s IP address to the House of Representatives.
And they thought, “How many offices in the U.S. House would be interested in one race in New Hampshire?” The answer: Very few. Probably only one.
Indeed, it was only one - as the article says, Bass's office copped to the charge. How pathetic, considering how many campaigns have gotten into hot water lately for similar shenanigans. Anyhow, major kudos to MissLaura, Keener and Yankee Doodler for uncovering this scandal. Great detective work! Hopefully we'll see some more tradmed coverage soon.
(I should note that IndyNH put in an appearance here at Swing State once. Like Clemenza says, I bet we won't see him no more.)
In other news, Paul Hodes is up on the air with his first ad, available at YouTube:
New Hampshire TV station WMUR also did a story on this. (Thanks to MissLaura for the links.)
Separately, two polls on this race came out recently. The first, from Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (likely voters, no trendlines):
Hodes (D): 30
Bass (R-inc.): 55
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±6%)
Clearly bad news for Hodes, but don't ignore the huge MoE. Also, R2K says they tried to match NH voter registration numbers with their sample, but there are two problems here. First, they only describe their statewide sample, without providing district breakdowns. Second, Dem ID is on the rise. The last two SUSA polls (here and here) which measured Bush's statewide approval rating showed Dem ID outstripping the voter reg numbers - not surprising, given the climate. So if you slavishly follow the stats from the Secretary of State, you are probably understating Democratic performance.
Also, as far as I can tell, this poll didn't ask any benchmark questions, such as George Bush's approval rating. A good pollster always tosses in a few questions like that just so you can have a basis for comparison. If you get a Bush approval rating 10 points higher (or lower) than other pollsters are showing, then your horserace results are probably useless. Without such a benchmark, this poll is just floating in the ether.
The other poll was commissioned by the DCCC and conducted by the Mellman Group (no trendlines):
Hodes (D): 41
Bass (R-inc.): 41
(N=400)
We don't have the full details on this one, but it's almost exactly in line with the Hodes campaign's own internal poll from a little while back. Also, the pollster here had the good sense to ask Bush's approval. In the 2nd district, it stands at a mere 30%. This makes sense - SUSA's last poll had him at 35% statewide, and as we all know, NH-02 is more Dem than the state as a whole.
If you've been following this race closely (and chance are you have, if you're a regular SSP reader), you know that the polls have been all over the place. UNH and R2K showed big gaps, while two Dem polls showed the race neck-and-neck. It's tempting to say that the truth must lie somewhere in between, but I'm not inclined to believe that. The UNH poll had some pretty serious flaws, and R2K simply hasn't provided enough information for us to properly assess their poll.
But to me, the most telling thing is still the fact that we have not heard a single peep from Charlie Bass or the NRCC regarding any polls of their own. A month ago, I passed along word that Bass had apparently gone into the field. Even if that tidbit was mistaken, surely, surely Bass has taken a poll for himself by now. If he hasn't, that would be so stupid as to be criminally negligent. (Though based on what we've seen, I wouldn't put that past him.)
So why haven't we seen it yet? If it confirmed the numbers from the independent pollsters, Bass would have undoubtedly released it by now. His failure to do so can only mean that his own polling shows him doing materially worse than the UNH & R2K numbers. And that doesn't surprise me at all.
Posted at 12:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, September 23, 2006
HI-Sen, HI-02 Primary Results Open Thread (Akaka Wins!)
Posted by James L.It's primary day in Hawaii today. I'm not sure when results will be posted, but it looks like the polls will close around midnight eastern, and presumably results will be posted at the Hawaii Office of Elections website (thanks, Predictor).
I'm weirdly nervous about Akaka-Case given the anti-incumbent sentiment this year (Lieberman, Schwarz, McKinney, Wynn, & Chafee all knocked off or having received close calls) but hopefully Daniel K. will pull through today. I'd be seriously depressed if we'd have to deal with Ed Case in the Senate representing a state that doesn't require his brand of rightward-skewing "centrism" in order to be viable in a general election.
Discuss predictions, results, and thoughts here.
Update: Bumping this one up. The Honolulu Advertiser has a results page up... but this page looks like the best one to follow.
Update (II): It's an Akaka victory, 55-45. Normally I'd say that that's a hairy margin of victory for a incumbent senator, but this primary could have been much, much nastier. Kudos to Case for not going the Lieberman route.
Posted at 10:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
KY-04: Nailed!
Posted by James L.I love it! Mark Nickolas does the dirty work and once again proves why the Bluegrass Report is one of the best state blogs in the biz. Today he digs up some dirt on the latest Geoff Davis TV ad, which features a handful of "Democrats" stating their support for the vulnerable Republican incumbent. One has to be suspect of the type of "Democrat" who would endorse Geoff Davis (a guy who bends over backwards to assist predatory lenders in their relentless quest to bleed the pockets of military families dry) over the infinitely superior Democratic candidate, former Rep. Ken Lucas. Well, surprise surprise, check out the story behind the first so-called Democrat endorsing Davis in his ad, a man billed as David Wallace, Attorney. It turns out that Wallace is none other than Davis' personal attorney!
The money quote, from a Dec. 2003 story on Davis:
His accountant, Ken Kinder, and his lawyer, David Wallace, each vouched for the information Davis provided and prepared a summary of the returns. Lucas is not running for re-election next year.
I'll let Mark take it over from here:
How sad is that??? Davis can't find enough Democrats willing to go on camera to endorse him that he has to slide in his own personal attorney without disclosing such.Wonder how much Davis has paid Wallace and his law firm over the years?
Essentially, this means Wallace endorsed Davis, not because he is a Democrat, but because he has a financial relationship with Davis.
Pack your bags, wingnut...
In another post, Mark advises Davis that it's a "long trip back to Canada". I can tell you right now, that as a proud Canadian, we don't want Geoff Davis back! You guys can keep him! (But hopefully not in Congress.)
PS: Check out Ken Lucas' latest positive ad and line it up next to Davis' vacuous TV spot. No comparison.
Posted at 04:37 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 21, 2006
AZ-08: Republicans Flee
Posted by James L.So says Jesse Lee over at the DCCC blog:
The NRCC, having gone out on a limb to get a more moderate candidate through the primary and failed, has just given up on the Medicare-abolishing, Department of Education-hating, David Duke-endorsed nominee Randy Graf.We have just gotten word that they have cancelled everything on the air from October 3rd forward.
The NRCC still decided to play in this district after Mr. Randy "The Only Thing That's Scarier Than Going Into A Bar Without A Gun Is Not Being Allowed To Bring A Gun Into A Bar" Graf, an anti-immigration zealot, won the 9/12 primary over their much-preferred choice, Steve Huffman. I'm sure it pains them to cede this seat to the Democrats, but they're being backed into a corner here: the consensus surrounding this purplish district is that candidates who appear politically moderate attract the strongest support. Graf has a raging conservative base, but not much else to work with here. His fundraising is terrible; his charisma is absent. I'm not quite sure what the breaking point for the NRCC was, but maybe they threw up their hands after they realized that ex-KKK leader David Duke gave Graf his proud endorsement.
Graf is not even worth a token effort. Like I said yesterday, stick a fork in him; AZ-08 is going to be Giffords country now.
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Cook Makes Some Ch-Ch-Changes
Posted by James L.The Cook Political Report updated its House race rankings today. Here are the movers and the shakers:
AZ-08 (Kolbe), Toss Up to Lean D
FL-13 (Harris), Likely R to Lean R
IL-11 Weller, Likely R to Solid R
KY-02 Lewis, Likely R to Solid R
NE-01 Fortenberry, Solid R to Likely R
VA-10 Wolf, Solid R to Likely R
ND-AL Pomeroy, Likely D to Solid D
Five races moving in the Democratic direction, while two slide back into safe Republican territory. Not a bad deal. Cook's decision to rate AZ-08 in the Democratic column marks it as only the second Republican-held district that he's tagging as a Democratic pick-up (Lampson in TX-22 being the first). I wonder if any more GOP-held districts, and which ones, will float to the D column in the next month and a half.
Posted at 12:17 AM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
OH-02: Jaw-dropping SUSA Poll Shows a Three Point Race
Posted by James L.
When an internal poll released by Democratic challenger Vic Wulsin in July showed a tied race, I was pleasantly surprised but still cautious. Jean Schmidt obviously hasn't done much to endear herself to voters in OH-02 since beating Paul Hackett by a slim margin over a year ago; she's spent her time either getting taunted by Saturday Night Live for a shameless assualt on the courage of Vietnam veteran John Murtha on the floor of the House, releasing racist newsletters to her constituents, and getting into hot water with the Ohio Elections Commission for beefing up her campaign biography with a degree that she apparently never earned. Still, this is a blood red district, and not even Paul Hackett could crack it, so I didn't want to get my hopes up. But get a load of this new SUSA poll (likely voters):
Victoria Wulsin (D): 42
Jean Schmidt (R): 45
MoE: ±4.5%
The crosstabs are illuminating, too: Schmidt gets 71% of Republican voters (13% for Wulsin), while Wulsin gets 86% of Democratic voters, and 48% of independent voters to Schmidt's 38%.
Jean Schmidt is drinking from a poisoned well. No wonder the DCCC added OH-02 to its Emerging Races program.
Posted at 06:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-11: The NRCC is Nervous
Posted by James L.I'll let Say No To Pombo do the talking here:
The NRCC came into CA-11 back on August 3rd and dropped $16,275 on the table to finance polling for Richard Pombo. Then, a mere month later, they plunked down another $9,765 for a second round of Pombo polling. Now, I suspect that we’ll never know what that polling told them because they haven’t been in any hurry to release their findings publicly. But that omission probably tells us most of what we need to know about their results. And if there were any lingering suspicions, the NRCC’s subsequent actions have more than answered the question.Following the first poll, the NRCC paid out $1,477 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production and $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers. After the second poll on 9/6, they made the following independent expenditures, all within a ten-day period:
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/13 — $38,385 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers.It’s worth noting that all of these expenditures have been identified for FEC purposes as being made in opposition to Jerry McNerney. That means the voters of CA-11 are going to be barraged with several more rounds of anti-McNerney advertising. It’s telling that even the NRCC can’t seem to find much good to say about Richard Pombo and his record in Congress. Instead, they have to content themselves with lying about Jerry McNerney.
Taken in total, that’s $250,762 in negative mailers paid for by the NRCC on behalf of Richard Pombo in just the last two weeks. Together with the polling, that means they’ve spent $276,802 in CA-11 in the last six weeks. You simply can’t convince me that Richard Pombo and the Republican Party aren’t deeply worried about the outcome of this race.
You can't convince me otherwise, either. The NRCC wouldn't drop over a quarter of a million dollars on this seat if McNerney wasn't threatening Pombo in their internal polls (which we'll never see, like a lot of Republican internal polls, because the results are embarrassing). Pombo, as you may recall, was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, and his heinous record on environmental issues have caused environmental groups and PACs to single him out for special punishment this year. Pombo is being challenged by netroots candidate Jerry McNerney, a man of integrity and a renewable energy expert--the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued district. The DCCC has sat on the sidelines since their preferred candidate, pilot Steve Filson, lost the primary. On Monday, they finally made the move to add McNerney to a slate of fifteen "Emerging Races", a program that will help deliver some fundraising for unusually strong challengers in reddish seats.
Bowers is right, though: McNerney deserves the full Red-to-Blue Program treatment here. That the NRCC would dump $250,000 in support of an incumbent whose fundraising has been very strong this cycle is eye-opening. The DCCC's "Emerging Races" treatment of McNerney is a positive step, but I'd say that he deserves the whole enchilada.
If you'd like to help Jerry McNerney apply more heat to Richard Pombo, give him some well-deserved help here.
Posted at 05:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
AZ-08: Stick a Fork in Graf
Posted by James L.The NRCC is still dropping cash on this district, even after their preferred candidate, the underwhelming Steve Huffman, lost to dumb-ass arch-conservative Randy Graf in the GOP primary, and even after retiring Republican incumbent Jim Kolbe refused to endorse Graf. I'm pleased by this, because it's more Republican money down the drain.
This is a poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research taken last week on behalf of Democratic nominee Gabrielle Giffords (likely voters):
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 54
Randy Graf (R): 35
Undecided/Other: 11
MoE: ±4%
Sure, it's an internal, and yeah, maybe it's a bit too optimistic, but Graf is bruised from the primary (he even makes his own party "queasy"), Kolbe threw him under the bus, and the Democrats fielded a star candidate in former State Sen. Giffords. Move this race to the "Likely Democratic" column and forget about it.
Posted at 04:03 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
KY-04: SUSA Shows Lucas (D) Edging Davis (R) Again
Posted by James L.KY-04 (likely voters, August in parens):
Ken Lucas (D): 48 (44)
Geoff Davis (R-Inc.): 44 (46)
MoE: ±4.8%
Lucas held this conservative seat for three terms before stepping down to honor a term limits pledge in 2004 (how rare), and is back in the fore to put this race into play. Lucas never won by wide margins, but his moderate-to-conservative profile allowed him to make inroads in a district that is dominated by Democrats of a similar ideological stripe (Democrats edge Republicans in self-identification by 46-39 here according to this poll) but one that Cook now ranks at R+11.7. This race wouldn't be on the map without him, and for that, we should be grateful.
Posted at 06:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
IA-01: Braley (D) is Looking Good
Posted by James L.From a Des Moines Register poll (likely voters):
Bruce Braley (D): 44
Mike Whalen (R): 37
Undecided: 17
MoE: ±4.7%
This is an open seat race in a district that John Kerry won by a 53-46 margin against Bush in 2004. Incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Nussle, who had a lock on this seat since 1990 (facing only one close call in 1992 against incumbent Democratic Rep. Dave Nagle in a redistricting match-up), is making a run for Governor, and it looks like this seat is trending back to its natural condition of leaning Democratic:
The Iowa Poll also tested the overall strength of the two parties' candidates in the state's four other congressional districts.While not identifying candidates by name, the poll asked whether likely voters would cast their ballots for the Democrat or Republican nominated for the seat in their district. Forty-three percent said they would vote Democratic if the election were held now, and 36 percent said they would vote Republican.
Having the popular Nussle at the top of the ticket is a plus for Whalen, but I'm finding it doubtful that he'll overcome this district's natural Democratic edge in a year like this.
Posted at 04:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Iowa | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, September 18, 2006
Pollapalooza (AZ, IN, MA, MN)
Posted by James L.Normally I'd blog these things as they are released, but there's just been too damn many polls lately! I'm on the verge of a pollgasm here!
AZ-05 (SurveyUSA, likely voters, May in parens):
Harry Mitchell (D): 40 (45)
J.D. Hayworth (R-Inc.): 52 (50)
Warren Severin (Lib.): 4
MoE: ±4.1%
The trendlines in this poll may not be as significant because in May, SUSA polled this as a two-way race between Mitchell and Hayworth; this most recent poll includes Warren Severin, a Libertarian candidate. No bones about it, though, this seat will be a pretty tough one. Former Tempe Mayor and State Senator Harry Mitchell is a great fit for the district, but his Tempe base (where he has numerous buildings and statues in his honor) only covers about 25% of a district that delivered 55% of its votes to Bush in 2004.
IN-02 (Research 2000, July in parens):
Joe Donnelly (D): 50 (46)
Chris Chocola (R): 42 (41)
MoE: ?
Research 2000 isn't one of my favorite polling outfits, but this is the fourth consecutive poll that has Donnelly in the lead. This seat was supposed to be a longshot last year. Man, Indiana is looking like a catastrophe for Republicans this November.
MN-06 (SUSA, likely voters, no trendlines):
Patty Wetterling (D): 41
Michele Bachmann (R): 50
John Binkowski (I): 5
MoE: ±3.9%
A Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies poll conducted before the Sept. 12 primary showed this race as "Republican nominee" 53, "Democratic nominee" 42 (which I felt was a pretty pointless poll at the time given that the primary was all but certain), but SUSA's polling is pretty close to those numbers. Wetterling lost by 8 points to Mark Kennedy in this district in 2004 (while Kerry lost by 14). Can she narrow the gap in time? Will Bachmann's extremism damper her numbers much at all? This is not an undoable race at all, but I can't quite tell if any narratives have emerged here yet.
MA-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, August in parens):
Deval Patrick (D): 46 (34)
Chris Gabrieli (D): 29 (30)
Tom Reilly (D): 22 (30)
MoE: ±3.8%
Incredible mo' for progressive rising star Deval Patrick. I'm rooting for him in tomorrow's primary.
Posted at 11:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
DCCC Expands Red to Blue Program, Creates "Emerging Races" List
Posted by James L.The DCCC launched their third round of Red to Blue program additions today. Eight races have been added to the DCCC's program, which provides fundraising and structural assistance to the very strongest of Democratic challengers targeting red seats. At least, in theory. Check out these eight names, the newest additions to the program:
Gabby Giffords (AZ-08)
Phil Hare (IL-17)
Paul Hodes (NH-02)
Steve Kagen (WI-08)
Dan Maffei (NY-25)
Angie Paccione (CO-04)
Betty Sutton (OH-13)
HI-02 Winner
There are some really good choices here (Hodes, Giffords, and Paccione), a surprising but also good choice (Maffei), but take a look at the italicized names here. These are Democratic candidates defending open seats held by retiring Democratic incumbents. I'm pretty surprised to see Sutton on the list--most prognosticators consider her chances to be very good. I have a similar reaction with Hare, but HI-02? Could this seat really be vulnerable? Kerry won this district with 55%, so I have a hard time grappling why this one should be on the R2B program. I'm waiting to be educated here.
As a silver lining, the DCCC created an entirely new list called "Emerging Races":
The DCCC Emerging Races list is made up of candidates who have taken traditionally non-competitive districts and, through the strength of their campaigns, put themselves in a position to win in November.
Here are the fab fifteen:
Charlie Brown (CA-04)
Jack Davis (NY-26)
Judy Feder (VA-10)
Peter Goldmark (WA-05)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Dave Mejias (NY-03)
Maxine Moul (NE-01)
Dan Seals (IL-10)
Bob Shamansky (OH-12)
Ellen Simon (AZ-01)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Victoria Wulsin (OH-02)
Netroots candidates in bold. So what does this list do? Good question. While it seems that the candidates on this list won't receive the structural benefits that the R2B candidates receive (like a House incumbent mentor, or campaign staff additions, for instance), it appears that the DCCC has drafted this list as a separate slate of races that its donor base can contribute to. It's not quite the cherry that R2B is, but it's a pretty sweet deal anyway, especially for some of these candidates, like Kissell, Brown, and Wulsin, who could really use some additional campaign funds. And look at all those Netroots candidates!
UPDATE: Just another thought: I'm not sure if the DCCC had a comparable list to "Emerging Races" in 2004, but I suspect not. The DCCC can only channel so much money, so it makes sense to create a targeted, concentrated list. In 2004, the DCCC raised $7.5m for 27 candidates. In 2006, the Red to Blue program is now at 43 names (by my count), including just four open seats held by retiring Democratic incumbents (or Bernie Sanders). And today we now see an Emerging Races slate of 15 additional names. That's 54 Republican seats with a target put on their backs by the DCCC. It's pretty clear that they're playing footsie with the idea of a wave, although, since I'm a typical cautious youngster, I would doubt that the DCCC expects to win a majority of even the R2B races.
UPDATE (II): I just got word from the Jesse Lee at the DCCC that Ed Perlmutter, the Democratic candidate for the CO-07 open seat was accidentally left off the original press release. I corrected this post accordingly. Scratch all that; as ArkDem notes in the comments, this was a communications error--Perlmutter has been on this list since the second wave of R2B.
Posted at 04:33 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 15, 2006
KS-02, KS-AG: What on Earth is Going on in Kansas?
Posted by James L.So yesterday, SurveyUSA dropped a whole load of polls on statewide races in Kansas. Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius is performing very well, leading Republican Jim Barnett by 58-38. That's no surprise. Slightly more surprising are the polling results for the real statewide dogfight in Kansas this year: the battle for the Attorney General's office (likely voters):
Paul Morrison (D): 48
Phill Kline (R-Inc.): 51
MoE: ±4.1%
Paul Morrison was the Republican District Attorney of Johnson County (Kansas' most populous county with over 506,000 residents), who switched his party affiliation to Democrat last year and filed to run against Kline shortly thereafter, part of an emerging narrative in Kansas politics under Sebelius' deft stewardship. I haven't been following the dynamics of this race other than Kline's relentless anti-abortion related legal activity while in office. Needless to say, it seems that Kline's extreme conservative tack and Morrison's profile have put this race in play for Kansas Democrats. For comparison's sake, the other statewide Republican incumbents facing re-election battles this year (Secretary of State, Insurance Commissioner, and Treasurer) are all at or above 60%. I'm just thinking out loud here, but it's important to build up the Democratic bench in states like Kansas (and I will dismiss any arguments that converting moderate Republicans to the Democrats in Kansas is a bad thing), because, who knows, someday we could see Paul Morrison, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, or Governor. I'm thinking a few moves ahead here.
Even more surprising, though, is this internal poll on the congressional race in KS-02 (likely voters):
Nancy Boyda (D): 42.5
Jim Ryun (R-Inc.): 41.2
Undecided: 16.2
MoE: ±4.6%
Here's the context:
Boyda said the only reason she was revealing the data was that on Thursday a front page story in the Kansas City Star downplayed her chances against Ryun because she was receiving little attention from the national Democratic Party in Washington, D.C.[...]
But Ryun’s spokesman Black dismissed Boyda’s poll claims.
“If any legitimate, scientific polling firm found these results, the national Democrats would not have written off this race as reported by the Kansas City Star on Sept. 14,” he said.
State Sen. Anthony Hensley, D-Topeka, said the polling company Infomark Research has a reputation for accuracy, and cited several instances of how it predicted winners in close races.
“This is a winnable race for Nancy Boyda,” Hensley said.
I don't know anything about Informark Research, although they look legit after a cursory glance. But what the heck is going on in this race that could lead to it being a statistical tie? Nancy Boyda was the 2004 nominee in this district, and lost pretty decisively, 56-41, to Jim Ryun (fairing only slightly better than John Kerry did in the district, who lost by a 59-39 margin). So why on Earth should this district be more competitive this cycle? Ryun's record in the House is fairly analogous to Kline's record as AG--that is, extremely conservative. Could we really be seeing the results of this much-hyped intra-party rift between all-or-nothing social conservatives and more moderate Republicans in Kansas at play in KS-02 and elsewhere in the state, scoring some gains up and down the ballot for Democrats this cycle? Time will tell.
Posted at 05:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, Kansas | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 14, 2006
OH-18: The Next CA-50?
Posted by James L.In the 50th Congressional District of California, an entrenched Republican incumbent (Duke Cunningham) pled guilty to corruption charges.
In the 18th Congressional District of Ohio, it appears that another entrenched Republican incumbent is about to do the same:
Ohio Republican Rep. Bob Ney has agreed with the Justice Department to plead guilty to at least one criminal charge in a deal that could be announced as early as Friday, Capitol Hill sources said Thursday.
Charlie Cook ranks CA-50 as having a Partisan Voting Index of R+4.6 (that is, the district voted an average of 4.6% more Republican in the last two presidential contests than the national average).
Charlie Cook ranks OH-18 as having a PVI of R+6.1
In CA-50, Duke Cunningham's "early retirement" (ie. prison term) allowed another experienced Republican politician to assume his place on the ballot against a Democratic challenger with a thin-to-minimal political resume (Francine Busby).
In OH-18, Bob Ney's announcement that he would not seek another term allowed another experienced Republican politician (State Sen. Joy Padgett) to assume his place on the ballot against a Democratic challenger with a thin-to-minimal political resume, Dover Law Director Zack Space.
In CA-50 special election, Busby ran a campaign entirely focused against the Republican culture of corruption, and emphasized that she would take no 'gifts, trips or secret meetings' with lobbyists.
In OH-18, Space is running a campaign primarily focused on rooting out corruption, promising to accept "no gifts, meals or trips" from lobbyists. (For an example, check out this almost laughably boisterous ad.)
In the CA-50 special election, Busby fell short of Bilbray by less than 4 points (49.3-45.5).
Will Zack Space fare any better in a district that leans even more to the Republicans? At first glance, one would have to be pretty skeptical of such a scenario. But there are a number of factors that should complicate an easy victory for Republicans in this district. First off, Padgett was Ney's handpicked candidate, a line of attack that Space has already opened on her. Bilbray did not have the curse of being associated with Cunningham. Secondly, Padgett endorsed Ney's re-election bid even after his ethical "lapses" came to the fore. Thirdly, her political career has evolved from her close relationship with Gov. Bob Taft (the least popular Governor in the nation with a whopping 79% disapproval rating). If Space can consistently tie Padgett with the Bobs (Taft and Ney, that is), he may be able to succeed where Busby failed.
Posted at 10:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio, Scandals | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
AZ-08: Kolbe Witholds Endorsement of Graf
Posted by James L.Oh this is good. Just as a backgrounder, last night, the NRCC's preferred candidate to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Jim Kolbe in Arizona, Steve Huffman, lost his primary to right-wing firebrand (and anti-immigration advocate) Randy Graf. AZ-08 is a true tossup district that barely went for Bush over Kerry, but Kolbe was a rare creature: a gay Republican in moderate's clothing. The NRCC dropped at least $100k on this district in an effort to prop up Huffman, a moderate candidate in the mold of Kolbe--a signal indicating that the NRCC is not thrilled with their chances of holding this seat with Graf on the ballot. So, now that their candidate of choice has been defeated (43-37) by Graf, what is the NRCC to do? Especially now, after Jim Kolbe's principled stand:
“I congratulate Mr. Graf on his victory in the Republican primary. However, there are such profound and fundamental differences between his views and mine on several key issues that I would not be true to my own principles were I to endorse him now for the General election in November."
Cut him loose and focus on other, not-so-hopeless seats, is what they'll do.
(Hat-tip to jesselee.)
Posted at 03:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
PA-07: Sestak Hits the Airwaves
Posted by James L....and I have a feeling that it will tickle some of Matt Stoller's erogenous zones (via YouTube):
What do you think?
UPDATE: Joe Courtney, the Democratic challenger to Rob Simmons in CT-02, is up with his first ad, too:
Posted at 01:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, September 09, 2006
ID-01: Startling Poll Results Show Grant (D) Leading
Posted by James L.
So when I saw this posted by mcjoan on DailyKos after I got in tonight (08/28-09/01, likely voters, July in parens)...
Larry Grant (D): 22 (25)
Bill Sali (R): 14 (41)
Undecided: 61 (34)
MoE: ±7.4%
...I had to take a long, hard look at the ingredients list on this Stolichnaya bottle on my desk. Sali losing 27% since July? Undecideds doubling? My first inclination was to believe that this poll neglected to lump in "leaners"--voters not firmly committed to a candidate but leaning tentatively one way or the other. So I checked out the actual polling report (which you can find here in .DOC format courtesy of the Ridenbaugh Press), and, nope, "leaners" were indeed included here. My second reaction was that there must have been some kind of major methodological lapse that resulted in these crazy-ass numbers--a response that Idaho-based pollsters Greg Smith & Associates anticipated:
"The most striking finding from this study, certainly compared to the end-of-July study Greg Smith & Associates executed, is the significant shift in voter sentiment within the 1st Congressional District in just a month or so." Smith said. "The change is so dramatic that a person might wonder if there was some kind of significant methodological differences between the July and late August polls that would account for the change."The fact is, though, that other races are at roughly the same levels of support in both polls," Smith said. "The change is clearly a result of changing voter sentiment, not a change in polling methodology."
As they say, all the other results from this statewide poll reflect the conventional wisdom on the political culture of Idaho:
| Office | Republican | % | Democrat | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Butch Otter | 42% | Jerry Brady | 18% |
| Lt Gov | Jim Risch | 46% | Larry La Rocco | 23% |
| ID-01 | Bill Sali | 14% | Larry Grant | 22% |
| ID-02 | Mike Simpson | 61% | Jim Hansen | 19% |
| Superintendent | Tom Luna | 40% | Jana Jones | 29% |
So every other major race in Idaho is playing out just as expected this election season... except for its first congressional district, according to this poll at least. As you may recall, Bill Sali, the Republican nominee is a reality-challenged state legislator whose abrasive tenure in the ID House caused his Republican colleagues to daydream about throwing him out of their office windows. If this poll is in reality's ballpark, it's quite likely that all the press coverage on the newly-minted Republican nominee has forced some of Sali's controversial career highlights to the surface. Smith & Associates cites this same reason in their analysis, as well (filter through the Republican-esque rhetoric about "Democrat partisans" and "media efforts" dragging Sali down--as if simple truth-telling is part of some scary liberal media agenda):
"Such charges as Sali’s perceived lack of ability to get along with other Idaho Legislators, and his unyielding adherence to political principle, seem to have gotten some traction with 1st District voters, and a ‘FUD’ factor (fear, uncertainty, doubt) appears to have taken hold," Smith said. “To this extent, the efforts of the media and Democrat partisans have been effective."
Idaho Republicans have already been scrambling to seal any cracks in the GOP base, ramping up attacks against Larry Grant's Republican supporters in a tone and volume that has the Ridenbaugh Press' Randy Stapilus raising his eyebrows, and wondering if the problem is deeper than it appears on the surface.
Whether it's in this election or the next, Sali is going to be as vulnerable as an Idaho Republican could be. Granted, this is Idaho, but Sali has a track-record of saying some incredibly stupid shit like boasting about how, even though he suffers from something that he affectionately refers to as "brain fade", he can adequately fulfill his duties as a legislator because "critical thinking skills are not required" in that line of work. His history in the state house was the laughingstock of the Republican caucus--at least until he won the nomination for the congressional seat. Now they're they're closing ranks and circling the wagons, fearing the prospect of a Democratic House of Representatives. But I'd be willing to bet that sending a man like Bill Sali to Washington will eventually produce a Jean Schmidt-style embarrassment of one kind or another.
For now, though, we have a tremendous opportunity to do a bit of party building while also causing a little mayhem behind enemy lines, so to speak. Your support for netroots-endorsed challenger Larry Grant will go a long way towards helping Larry spread his message throughout the district and give Bill Sali and national Republicans some heartburn this November.
Posted at 12:31 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 08, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo, Pt. II
Posted by James L.The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is back on the air with two new ads targeting corrupt incumbent Republican congressman Richard Pombo. The first one is entitled "George":
The second one is called "Abe":
Quirky, to be sure. You can view the first round of anti-Pombo ads aired by the DWAF here. I'm not sure if this second round of ads will be anymore effective than the first, but since the DCCC is looking elsewhere this fall, netroots candidate Jerry McNerney will need all the help he can get on the air this fall.
Posted at 02:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 07, 2006
ID-01: What Parallel Universe Does Bill Sali Inhabit?
Posted by James L.The Fox News universe, I guess (Lewiston Morning Tribune via Idaho's excellent F-words blog):
But, Sali insisted weapons were recently discovered and that early in the war weapons were spirited away to Syria. "I know that I saw it on the TV station," Sali said. "It might have only been on FOX, come to think of it."
... This man is the Republican congressional nominee for Idaho's 1st congressional district. It seems that he bases his foreign policy knowledge on hazy, vague memories of Fox News broadcasts from over three years ago. Seriously.
I think it's time to pull up the money quote again:
The [Republican] Speaker [of the Idaho House], Bruce Newcomb, told The Idaho Statesman, “That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn’t have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper.”
Meanwhile, ID-01 voters have a reality-based alternative: netroots-endorsed Democrat Larry Grant.
Posted at 09:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Junkie Heaven
Posted by DavidNYCVia Taegan Goddard's indispensible Political Wire, we have polls for thirty - count `em, thirty - competitive House races from RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. Just enjoy:
| District | Incumbent Party | Party | % | Challenging Party | Party | % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-08* | Primary 9/12/06 | (R) | 46 | Primary 9/12/06 | (D) | 50 | D+4 |
| CO-04 | Marilyn Musgrave | (R) | 47 | Angie Paccione | (D) | 41 | R+6 |
| CO-07* | Rick O’Donnell | (R) | 46 | Ed Perlmutter | (D) | 48 | D+2 |
| CT-02 | Rob Simmons | (R) | 45 | Joe Courtney | (D) | 51 | D+6 |
| CT-04 | Christopher Shays | (R) | 49 | Diane Farrell | (D) | 42 | R+7 |
| FL-13* | Primary 9/05/06 | (R) | 56 | Primary 9/05/06 | (D) | 38 | R+18 |
| FL-22 | Clay Shaw | (R) | 52 | Ron Klein | (D) | 44 | R+8 |
| IA-01* | Mike Whalen | (R) | 41 | Bruce Braley | (D) | 54 | D+13 |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | (D) | 54 | Jeff Lamberti | (R) | 43 | D+11 |
| IL-06* | Peter Roskam | (R) | 46 | Tammy Duckworth | (D) | 47 | D+1 |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean | (D) | 48 | David McSweeney | (R) | 45 | D+3 |
| IN-02 | Chris Chocola | (R) | N/A | Joe Donnelly | (D) | N/A | Polling under way |
| IN-08 | John Hostettler | (R) | N/A | Brad Ellsworth | (D) | N/A | Polling under way |
| IN-09 | Mike Sodrel | (R) | N/A | Baron Hill | (D) | N/A | Polling under way |
| KY-04 | Geoff Davis | (R) | 49 | Ken Lucas | (D) | 46 | R+3 |
| MN-06* | Primary 9/12/06 | (R) | 53 | Primary 9/12/06 | (D) | 42 | R+11 |
| NC-11 | Charles Taylor | (R) | 47 | Heath Shuler | (D) | 50 | D+3 |
| NM-01 | Heather Wilson | (R) | 48 | Patricia Madrid | (D) | 45 | R+3 |
| NV-03 | Jon Porter | (R) | 51 | Tessa Hafen | (D) | 43 | R+8 |
| NY-24* | Primary 9/12/06 | (R) | 41 | Primary 9/12/06 | (D) | 49 | D+8 |
| OH-06* | Charlie Wilson | (D) | 56 | Chuck Blasdel | (R) | 40 | D+16 |
| OH-18* | Primary 9/14/06 | (R) | 43 | Zack Space | (D) | 47 | D+4 |
| PA-06 | Jim Gerlach | (R) | 45 | Lois Murphy | (D) | 50 | D+5 |
| PA-08 | Mike Fitzpatrick | (R) | 53 | Patrick Murphy | (D) | 45 | R+8 |
| PA-10 | Don Sherwood | (R) | 43 | Chris Carney | (D) | 50 | D +7 |
| VA-02 | Thelma Drake | (R) | 43 | Phil Kellam | (D) | 51 | D+8 |
| VT-AL* | Peter Welch | (D) | 54 | Primary 9/12/06 | (R) | 40 | D+14 |
| WA-08 | Dave Reichert | (R) | 46 | Darcy Burner | (D) | 49 | D+3 |
| WI-08* | Primary 9/12/06 | (R) | 44 | Primary 9/12/06 | (D) | 48 | D+4 |
| WV-01 | Alan Mollohan | (D) | 52 | Chris Wakim | (R) | 42 | D+10 |
An asterisk indicates an open seat. All polls have a margin of error of ±3.1%. Bowers has more here and here.
Posted at 03:17 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Polls | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
CT-02: DCCC Poll Shows a Dead Heat
Posted by James L.These numbers are from a Joe Courtney press release courtesy of the DCCC. I don't know the MoE, I don't know the polling firm, I don't know whether these are likely or registered voters, and I don't know the trendlines (if any). But, this poll is DCCC-commissioned, and they don't mess around with things like these. So I suspect the numbers are reliable:
Joe Courtney (D): 41
Rob Simmons (R-Inc.): 40
n=400
For those who may not remember, Simmons is the House Republican incumbent who holds the single most Democratic seat among the entire GOP caucus. Cook ranks CT-02 as D+7.6, and Kerry outperformed Bush by 10 full points on this ground in 2004. At the same time, however, Simmons edged his Democratic opponent, Jim Sullivan, by 8 points. Simmons has been an annoyingly tough nut to crack for Connecticut Democrats, so a poll showing the incumbent at 40 points should seriously start to make him sweat, if he hasn't been already. If I were Simmons, or any other northeast Republican incumbent, I'd be very much disturbed by tremors like these. The earth just may fall beneath their feet on November 7.
UPDATE: I managed to grab some info on this poll. It was conducted from August 28-30 by Grove Insight, with a sample size of 400, and it's measuring likely voters.
Posted at 04:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, September 03, 2006
TX-22: Perry's Gambit Backfires
Posted by James L.As you may know by now, the Texas Republican Party pulled a cute stunt last week when Gov. Rick Perry (R) called for a special election to fill Tom DeLay's vacant seat for the rest of his term, expiring in January 2007. At first glance, it seems clever--by holding the special on the same day as the general, it gives Republican write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs an actual ballot position, which theoretically should help remind Republican die-hards to scribble in Ms. Hyphen's name on the general ballot.
I say "theoretically" for several reasons. First of all, Nick Lampson is boycotting the special election. This is likely an effective strategy not only because it de-legitimizes the special election as a DeLay-Perry powerplay, but also because it will generate a certain amount of confusion. As Rick Hasen notes via the Hotline, Republican voters who are deterimined to vote for Secular-Gibs may cast a vote for her on the "special" ballot and think that their work is done. Furthermore, it won't just be Shelley on the special ballot. A relatively low filing fee has brought up a whole crop of other candidates contesting the special election. From the AP:
Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, backed by Republicans as a write-in candidate in the general election, is among those who filed by Friday's deadline for the special election.She is joined by three other Republicans — retired Air Force Maj. Don Richardson; Dr. Hoa Tran Giannibecego; and former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman — and Libertarian Bob Smither.
I see this cutting in two ways. First of all, voters will see two ballots--one with Lampson and Smither (the general ballot), and another with Ms. Hypenated-Name and three other Republicans plus Smither (the special ballot). Voters who are determined to vote against Lampson may think that they're picking their anti-Lampson choice on the special ballot alone, and their work would be done. Secondly, for sharper Republican voters, having a whole crop full of special election candidates who aren't on the general ballot may actually increase the number of divided write-in votes. If the Republican aim was to increase Sekula-Gibbs' name recognition for the general ballot, their gambit may inadvertently cause a portion of Republicans to pick a name from the list of special election choices and scribble it in against Lampson on the general ballot (even though they haven't registered to run as write-ins).
The more I think about this one, the more I feel "Democrat Favored" is probably the more appropriate ranking over "Leans Democratic".
Posted at 03:47 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NM-01: Independent Poll Shows a Tight Race
Posted by DavidNYCVia NM FBI Hop, a new poll on the race for New Mexico's first CD, taken by for the Albuquerque Journal (you'll need to watch a brief ad to access the article) by the firm Research & Polling (likely voters, no trendlines):
Madrid (D): 42
Wilson (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(Moe: ±4.8%)
This poll, apparently the first independent survey of this race, is in line with Madrid's recent internal polling, which showed the race 46-44 Wilson just a few weeks ago.
The troubling thing about this poll is how much better Wilson does with her own party than Madrid. Wilson has the support of 83% of Republicans while only 66% of Democrats favor Madrid. Indeed, 17% of Dems prefer Wilson, while only 8% of GOPers like Madrid. However, this may not be as big a problem as it looks, because Dems outstrip Republicans in voter registration in this district.
The good news is that Bush's approval in the state stands at just 38-51, according to this same poll. As long as Madrid can keep pumping anti-incumbent sentiment, it's going to be hard for Wilson to get out from under that burden.
P.S. I think that this poll is of likely voters - the articles phrase it a bit confusingly, though. If you think otherwise, let us know in comments.
Posted at 03:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Mexico | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Pre-Primary House Fundraising Roundup
Posted by DavidNYCBelow is a chart compiling fundraising numbers for all candidates in all competitive races who recently had to file pre-primary reports. James & I drew financial data from the FEC's electronic filings, and we identified competitive races using Superribbie's most recent roundup. All numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand.
| District | Democrat | Dem Raised | Dem CoH | Republican | GOP Raised | GOP CoH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Simon | $67,000 | $335,000 | Renzi | $118,000 | $765,000 |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell | $155,000 | $672,000 | Hayworth | $516,000 | $1,474,000 |
| AZ-08 | Giffords | $270,000 | $335,000 | Huffman | $164,000 | $173,000 |
| AZ-08 | Weiss | $75,000 | $92,000 | Hellon | $62,000 | $34,000 |
| AZ-08 | Latas | No Report | Graf | $192,000 | $82,000 | |
| FL-08 | Stuart | $115,000 | $215,000 | Keller | $36,000 | $1,262,000 |
| FL-08 | Grayson | $25,000 | $53,000 | |||
| FL-08 | Hartage | $16,000 | $1,000 | |||
| FL-09 | Busansky | $94,000 | $531,000 | Bilirakis | $318,000 | $1,190,000 |
| FL-13 | Jennings | $83,000 | $281,000 | Buchanan | $841,000 | $1,439,000 |
| FL-13 | Schneider | $5,000 | $60,000 | Hudson | $150,000 | $207,000 |
| FL-13 | Detert | $17,000 | $49,000 | |||
| FL-13 | Clarke | $30,000 | $18,000 | |||
| FL-13 | Flanagan | $9,000 | $9,000 | |||
| FL-16 | Mahoney | $54,000 | $344,000 | Foley | $51,000 | $2,780,000 |
| FL-22 | Klein | $126,000 | $1,650,000 | Shaw | $150,000 | $2,740,000 |
| MN-01 | Walz | $105,000 | $244,000 | Gutknecht | $121,000 | $840,000 |
| MN-02 | Rowley | $48,000 | $101,000 | Kline | $105,000 | $697,000 |
| MN-06 | Wetterling | $503,000 | $800,000 | Bachmann | $418,000 | $666,000 |
| NH-01 | Craig | $63,000 | $130,000 | Bradley | $102,000 | $548,000 |
| NH-01 | Shea-Porter | $7,000 | $17,000 | |||
| NH-01 | Dodds | $32,000 | $3,000 | |||
| NH-02 | Hodes | $101,000 | $410,000 | Bass | $134,000 | $503,000 |
| NY-03 | Mejias | $133,000 | $256,000 | King | $149,000 | $1,590,000 |
| NY-19 | Hall | $193,000 | $246,000 | Kelly | $314,000 | $1,265,000 |
| NY-19 | Aydelott | $58,000 | $152,000 | |||
| NY-19 | Shuldiner | $12,000 | $92,000 | |||
| NY-20 | Gillibrand | $202,000 | $587,000 | Sweeney | $276,000 | $795,000 |
| NY-24 | Arcuri | $223,000 | $380,000 | Meier | $294,000 | $571,000 |
| NY-25 | Maffei | $62,000 | $171,000 | Walsh | $106,000 | $617,000 |
| NY-29 | Massa | $160,000 | $263,000 | Kuhl | $107,000 | $528,000 |
| VT-AL | Welch | $146,000 | $709,000 | Rainville | $121,000 | $235,000 |
| WI-08 | Kagen | $20,000 | $318,000 | Gard | $436,000 | $657,000 |
| WI-08 | Nusbaum | $191,000 | $102,000 | |||
| WI-08 | Wall | $55,000 | $77,000 |
Districts in italics are open seats. If I'm missing any major candidates, or you spot any mistakes, let me know. Also, the only race I left off is MD-03, which is a Dem-held open seat with a ton of candidates. (John Sarbanes, son of retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes, is widely considered the front-runner in that district.)
UPDATE: In my initial chart, I mistakenly left off the three Arizona races. They are now included.
Posted at 05:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
TX-23, TX-10: Ciro Dropping Out; Ankrum Poll
Posted by DavidNYCBreaking news from the indispensible Burnt Orange Report (via e-mail):
Making the announcement at a San Antonio AFL-CIO meeting, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez has announced he will withdraw his bid for the new 23rd Congressional District against Henry Bonilla. That leaves Albert Uresti, Lukin Gilliland, Rick Bolanos, and Augie Beltran as the remaining Democrats in the race. Gilliland appears to be set as a potential new frontrunner among the challengers.
I don't know anything about Gilliland, but clearly BOR is the place to keep reading for more on this development. More here. Also from BOR, a shocking new poll from Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum (likely voters, no trendlines):
Ankrum (D): 42
McCaul (R-inc.): 51
Badnarik (L): 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Now, this is a robo-poll, from an outfit I've never heard of (Forensic Economic Data Consulting). But unless this poll is totally wacky, this is pretty stunning. I mean, this district is R+13, and Ankrum had raised all of $30,000 as of the last reporting period - 10% as much as the third-party candidate, Libertarian Michael Badnarik. I'm sure Badnarik is holding down McCaul's numbers, but still, this is an impressive showing for a third-tier Dem. And again, if this survey has any legitimacy whatsoever, it's clearly bad news for the GOP in general.
Posted at 10:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New PVIs from Cook Political Report
Posted by DavidNYCEvery four years, the Cook Political Report publishes a new Partisan Voting Index based on presidential election results at the congressional district level. What exactly are PVIs? Here's the explanation (sub. req.):
In August of 1997, The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness of each of the 435 congressional districts. Using the 1992 and 1996 major-party Presidential voting results, the PVI measured how each congressional district performed compared to the nation as a whole.Using the results of the 2004 elections, we have updated these PVI ratings and have even more information to draw upon to understand the congressional level trends and tilts that will help to define upcoming elections.
Developed for The Cook Political Report by Clark Benson and Polidata Inc., the index is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years. While other data such as the results of senatorial, gubernatorial, congressional and other local races can help fine tune the exact partisan tilt of a particular district, those kinds of results don't allow a comparison of districts across state lines. Only Presidential results allow for total comparability. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2.3, for example, means that in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, that district performed an average of 2.3 points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+3.8 means the district performed more Republican than the nation.
PVIs are only available to owners of or subscribers to the Almanac of American Politics or the Cook Report. (However, the underlying data - presidential vote by CD - is available publicly both at CQ Politics and at PoliData.) For political junkies, though, a subscription to one (if not both) are practically a necessity. (Just as long as you ignore Michael Barone's increasingly wrong-headed conservative CW in the Almanac.)
Because PVIs rely on presidential vote by CD, whenever redistricting takes place, the PVIs have to get adjusted. As you well know, this used to be a once-a-decade affair. But Republican chicanery in Georgia and Texas has been keeping the number-crunchers busy. Fortunately, Cook has released new PVIs based on the mid-decade redistricting in Georgia and the most recent round of re-redistricting (or should that be re-re-re?) in Texas necessitated by violations of the Voting Rights Act.
While I won't republish all the new PVIs here, I can tell you how things have changed in the three most competitive districts in TX & GA.
GA-08: Marshall (D)
Old PVI: R+3
New PVI: R+8GA-12: Barrow (D)
Old PVI: D+5
New PVI: D+2TX-23: Bonilla (R)
Old PVI: R+13
New PVI: R+4
In any other year, the changes in Georgia would make me pretty nervous. But as you can see from Superribbie's newest compilation, the pros don't think all that highly of the GOP's chances in either GA-08 or GA-12. (GA-08, by the way, used to be numbered GA-03 until the redistricting.) However, you can bet that Barrow will get a serious challenge one of these years, when the GOP's fortunes change.
As far as TX-23 goes, well, I'm just not sure how much of the new district is actually new to Bonilla. And let's not kid ourselves: R+4 may look small compared to R+13, but it still means the district went for Bush by about 55-45 over Kerry. So I wouldn't get your hopes up for a surprise pickup there.
Overall, 12 of 13 districts in Georgia changed their partisan composition, and 5 of 32 in Texas did as well. The biggest remaining changes are in GA-1, where a possibly swing district has become extremely Republican, and TX-25, where Lloyd Doggett's heavily Democratic seat is now in swing territory. In fact, I'd expect a hefty challenge to Doggett soon, too. And while the news isn't good for John Courage - Lamar Smith's very Republican seat did become a little bit moreso - but I doubt it's going to make much of a difference.
But if you want the full run-down on all the changes, you're going to have to subscribe yourself. And I highly recommend doing so.
Posted at 04:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Redistricting | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
ATLA Throws Down in Five House Races
Posted by DavidNYCFrom the Association of Trial Lawyers of America (via an e-mail):
The Association of Trial Lawyers of America (ATLA) today began running television and radio ads in four congressional districts: IN-02 (Rep. Chris Chocola), NC-11 (Rep. Charles Taylor), NM-01 (Rep. Heather Wilson), OH-15 (Rep. Deborah Pryce). Additional ads will begin airing on Wednesday in PA-10 (Rep. Don Sherwood).The ads urge constituents to contact their members of Congress, who have voted to put corporate profits of the oil, gas and pharmaceutical industries before the safety and well-being of the public, and tell them to do the right thing when taking future votes.
...
The total ad buy is more than $500,000.
Of course, I'm sure the various GOP incumbents will denounce their counterparts as being in the pockets of greedy trial lawyers, etc. But the fact is, these ads will be on the air for a good long while - at best, each Republican campaign can muster a single press release's worth of indignation out of this. Of course, the Club for Growth will probably be quick to respond, but for now, I'm just glad that ATLA is ponying up.
And I'm also happy that they've picked PA-10. That might be the single cheapest media market of all of our major pick-up opportunities. (Rothenberg, by the way, just moved this race into his "Tossup/Tilt Republican" category.) ATLA should be able to flood the airwaves here. Let's hope it helps.
P.S. You can see & hear the ads here.
Posted at 08:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Media | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CO-05: Update - Hefley Demures, But Blasts GOP Nominee
Posted by James L.Earlier in the day, we discussed the possibility of retiring Republican congressman Joel Hefley running as a write-in campaign to sabotage the election chances of Club For Growth's Doug Lamborn (who levied all sorts of nasty attacks against his five primary opponents). Well, Hefley has made up his mind, and he's vetoed the idea of running as a write-in. But nevertheless, he still handed Democratic nominee Lt. Col. Jay Fawcett this nice little gift:
The 20-year Republican congressman said, however, that he will not back GOP nominee Doug Lamborn for the seat, explaining that he can not condone the way the state senator campaigned in a six-way primary."I feel that he ran the most sleazy, dishonest campaign I've seen in a long, long time, and I can not support it," Hefley said in a telephone interview. He is in Oklahoma for a cousin's funeral.
Hefley has a great deal of respect in Colorado's 5th, and a non-endorsement of Lamborn is just about as earth-shaking as an endorsement of netroots candidate Jay Fawcett.
Posted at 04:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Colorado | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CO-05: Hefley Ponders Write-in Candidacy, Republicans in Disarray
Posted by James L.Oh how I love to hear those words for a change: "Republicans in disarray." Well, it's the truth. Here's the story so far: way back in February, 20-year congressman Joel Hefley, of Colorado's 5th district, announced his retirement. Now, Colorado's fifth is a deeply Republican district (it voted for Bush by a 66-33 margin, I believe) with a heavy air force presence as well as being the home turf of James Dobson's theocratic Focus on the Family, but Democrats have fielded a nominee who's a good fit for the district: retired Lt. Col. Jay Fawcett, an air force vet with a Bronze Star from the Gulf War. Meanwhile, the Republicans had a very nasty six-way primary battle that resulted in the narrow victory of the Club For Growth-backed state senator Doug Lamborn. Fawcett spent his time picking up traction in the district, earning a netroots endorsement, as well as the backing of key Republicans with military backgrounds in the district.
Still, despite his best efforts, all that might not have been enough to pull off an upset in this deeply Republican district. Well, at least, until this story broke today:
Rep. Joel Hefley is seriously considering running as a writein candidate to retain his seat rather than risk handing it over to Republican nominee Doug Lamborn.In meetings with national political consultants, Hefley and his supporters have come up with yard-sign designs and the key messages of a possible campaign, Republican Party activist Peggy Littleton said.
Hefley, who has represented the 5th Congressional District for 20 years, has been the subject of a three-week push by high-level Republicans to take this nearly unheard-of step, Littleton said Monday.
[...]
Shortly after announcing he would not seek an 11th term, Hefley endorsed Crank. Crank and Lamborn engaged in a bloody political battle that included third-party mailings accusing Crank of being a tax hiker and an advocate for the “radical homosexual lobby,” charges Lamborn either leveled or refused to renounce.
Lamborn, a state senator, won the primary by 892 votes and is set to face Democrat Jay Fawcett in a district that leans heavily Republican. Thirteen Republicans have publicly announced their support for Fawcett, and others have complained behind the scenes about Lamborn’s primary campaign.
Radio stations pulled two ads by an organization that backed Lamborn because their truth was questioned, and the Federal Election Commission is investigating a complaint Lamborn illegally collaborated with outside groups.
Lamborn maintains that he campaigned on his record during 12 years in the Legislature and that he simply highlighted unflattering parts of opponents’ records. He has said also that he had nothing to do with mailers from outside groups.
Hefley, who criticized negative campaigning at the May GOP congressional assembly, gained a reputation in his later years as a champion of ethics in politics. He led the House ethics committee when it chastised Majority Leader Tom DeLay — a member of his own party — and later lost that seat and was ostracized by DeLay and his allies.
Littleton said many wellknown elected officials will back Hefley if he runs. If he does not, she and others are likely to sit out the election or, in some cases, vote for Fawcett, she said.
“Joel is the essence of integrity. . . . He was able to overcome ‘The Hammer,’ Tom DeLay,” Littleton said.
As long as those "Republicans For Fawcett" don't convert to "Republicans For Hefley", Lamborn could very well stand the chance of hemorrhaging from two sides. Hefley's no fool--I'm sure he realizes how next-to-impossible a write-in campaign is, even given his broad name recognition in the district. No, I'm quite sure that Hefley is doing this as a deliberate attempt to sabotage Lamborn's chances. Say what you will about Hefley--he IS extremely conservative, after all--but he wouldn't let Tom DeLay and his unethical kleptocrats push him around. He doesn't want to see his former seat of power be abused by someone without ethics.
Hefley has until 5pm to make this official. Keep your eyes peeled. In the meantime, please support Jay Fawcett and the netroots candidates today!
Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Colorado | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, August 26, 2006
NC-08: DCCC Changes Its Mind, Moves to Back Kissell!
Posted by James L.Phenomenal news, people. As you know, we began the August Netroots fundraising push with the goal of lifting up our netroots-endorsed candidates with a strong surge of online fundraising at a traditionally weak time of the summer for such activities. The goal was not so much to give campaigns the necessary funds to push them over the top, but to give them a fundraising "push" that would make larger donors and the DCCC take notice.
Well, guess what? The DCCC just noticed, and they're moving to back Netroots candidate Larry Kissell. (For more on Kissell's compelling story, see our earlier write-up about this race.) From the Charlotte Observer:
A Democratic Party official said Friday that the party's congressional campaign arm made a mistake in throwing its support to an 8th District candidate who later quit the race.In directing more than $30,000 to Fayetteville lawyer Tim Dunn last year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee bypassed Larry Kissell, a Montgomery County teacher. Dunn, an Iraq war veteran, was seen as a favorite before dropping out of the race in March.
Kissell went on to win the 8th District's May primary. He faces Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes in November.
"The DCCC made a mistake in assessing this race," U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., and a vice chair of the committee. "But the voters are smarter than we are."
Davis appeared with Kissell at an evening rally Friday at Charlotte's Veterans Park.
He said party interest in Kissell's race represented "a huge shift." He said he plans to ask the committee to make the race one of its national priorities. That could translate into money and other aid from the party as well as trade unions and other groups traditionally aligned with Democrats.
Amazing. This is exactly what we wanted to happen for our Netroots candidates. With minimal resources based on small dollar donations like yours, Kissell made waves in the district, earning headlines for his low-budget campaign tactics. Now, the "big boys" are promising to pile on in a meaningful way.
Who else can we help push into the DCCC's sights? Jay Fawcett? Dan Seals? Jerry McNerney? Let's see how far we can take this thing. Great work, people!
Posted at 01:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising, Netroots, North Carolina | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, August 25, 2006
NY-20: Sweeney Hires Celeb Lawyer to Harass TV Stations
Posted by DavidNYCWho knew that Rep. John Sweeney was such a WATB? From the Albany Times-Union blog:
U.S. Rep. John Sweeney has gotten one of the region’s best known lawyers to ask TV stations to pull a brutal MoveOn.Org ad against the congressman.The letter comes after Sweeney’s campaign spokeswoman, Maureen O’Brien Donovan, was apparently unsuccessful in trying to persuade the stations to stop airing the “red handed” ad.
...
Both ads, however, use the “caught red-handed'’ theme, which, [Stewart] Jones wrote, falsely implies Sweeney has done something illegal.
Perfect WATB behavior: When your press flack can't whine loudly enough, you call in the high-priced lawyers to whine a little louder. Of course, this joke definition of the word "red-handed" doesn't meet the laugh test - unless you think little kids who get caught with their hands in the cookie jar are going to jail.
Undoubtedly, the in-house counsel for these various TV stations realize any defamation claim by Sweeney is almost certainly frivolous. It's very hard to defame a public official under American law. The issue, though, is that a station might have to spend a lot of money getting such a case dismissed. So when the bean-counters do a cost-benefit analysis, they all-too-often decide they're better off not running the ads.
Which is why it's so important that we express our support for MoveOn and the TV stations. In a key way, this really is about freedom of speech. Yes, the stations are private companies - but they are broadcasting on public aiwaves (owned by you and me), at the public's sufferance. They control access to a public commons, and it's vital that they let all voices be heard.
And besides, if John Sweeney (and Randy Kuhl and Charlie Bass) don't like MoveOn's speech, the classic response is always to engage in more speech of your own. Curtailing the speech of others is just un-American.
So if you are in NY-20, you should be writing letters to the editor, in support of MoveOn and the stations and opposing Sweeney. You should also call and write to the stations (saying "attaboy!"), and also call and write to the Sweeney campaign (telling them to knock it off). The relevant stations are:
CBS 6 Albany (WRGB)
WTEN (ABC)
WNYT (NBC)
Fox 23 News (WXXA)
Capital News 9
Also, definitely let the Albany-Times Union know how you feel - either via an LTE or in the comments of the above-linked blog post (or both). As always, be civil and keep it short - you're much more likely to get heard that way.
Posted at 02:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Media, New York | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Netroots August Fundraising Push: Support Larry Kissell
Posted by James L.
If there's one candidate who actually tugs at your heartstrings this cycle, it's Larry Kissell. Larry's story is all too familiar to the voters of North Carolina's 8th Congressional District. After graduating from University, Larry climbed through the ranks of the local textile industry for 27 years before free trade agreements and corporate consolidation finally took its toll and he was forced to pursue a new career as a social studies teacher. Many of his 800 coworkers were not as fortunate. Now Larry is running for Congress on an economically progressive platform in a district that's been coping with increasingly leaner times under their Republican congressman, Robin Hayes.
Hayes, mindful of his constituent's extreme distaste for the economic effects of globalization and corporate trade pacts, initially said that that he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed to CAFTA," and insisted that "it's not in the best interests of the core constituency I represent," and that "there is no way I could vote for CAFTA." (Source) However, it didn't take long before the Republican strong-arms bullied and bribed Hayes into voting for the Central American Free Trade Agreement, much to the locals' disgust.
This race was originally a DCCC target, but their preferred candidate, Iraq War vet Tim Dunn, dropped out (and so did they). However, with limited resources but an endless supply of great ideas, Kissell's campaign has converted a low budget into a buzz-generating, free media-earning campaign. His best move yet was to sell gas for $1.22/gallon--its price when Hayes was first elected in 1998, as a way to tie the incumbent and his big oil supporters with high gas prices. The move was a stroke of genius for the Kissell campaign, and the event gobbled up lots of local newspaper headlines and radio buzz. The Hotline praised the move as an example that all attention-starved second-tier Democratic campaigns should follow this fall. Even national media sources like CNN were jolted, too:
How much do you want to bet that those 500 voters--Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike--became dyed in the wool Kissell supporters? Chances are, nearly all of them became Kissell converts. After all, Larry did more for them with one cheap tank of gas than Hayes has done for them in 8 years in Congress.
Recent polling shows that Kissell is well within striking distance of Hayes, but he needs your help to keep his momentum going. Based on his campaign's performance so far, Larry knows how to make your small-dollar donations go far!
Contribute to Larry Kissell and the Netroots candidates today.
Posted at 12:03 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising, Netroots, North Carolina | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Netroots Filing Deadline Roundup
Posted by DavidNYC• MissLaura has a great bit of bonafide reporting:
Tonight at a meet the candidates event held by the Rumney Democrats, Hodes announced that he has now broken the all-time record for in-state fundraising for any Congressional candidate in any party for an entire cycle. (Emphasis added.)
Awesome.
• MissLaura also reports that MoveOn has gone up with ads targeting Charlie Bass. I'm sure he's totally flipping out right now. One thing I can tell you: MoveOn did some very careful polling after they ran their first batch of ads (in CT-05 and elsewhere). Turns out, the ads had a net positive effect. I hope to blog more about this later. You can see the ad here.
• Meanwhile, a reliable source tells me that Bass recently went into the field with his own internal poll. (How can anyone outside the Bass campaign or his polling outfit know this? Easy - when a Hodes supporter gets an obvious polling phone call, they let others know. Word can get around pretty quickly.) Yet, apropos my post yesterday about internal polls, Bass hasn't yet released his. What're you scared of, Charlie?
• And speaking of MoveOn, they've also gone up in NY-29, home of Eric Massa. This district, even moreso than NH-02, is especially cheap, so MoveOn should get some good bang for the buck here. (They're also running the same ad in NY-20, where Kirsten Gillibrand, a personal favorite of mine, is running against Sweeney Blutarsky.)
• Also, Eric Massa receives a letter of support from a lifelong Republican who just happens to be a former GOP county chair. Unlike all those phony "lifelong Democrats" who write in to Andrew Sullivan or the New York Post, this turnabout is legit:
. Consequently, I must in good conscience vote to replace you in Congress with your Democratic opponent, Eric Massa, who I understand is a well-intentioned, well qualified individual of principle and integrity, just the right mix.Allow me the literary license to paraphrase a statement Republican, Senator Barry Goldwater thusly: "Mindless party loyalty is no virtue. Breaking with miscreant party leadership is no vice."
• Finally, while I don't have anything to add about Darcy Burner in WA-08 at the moment, she, too - like Hodes and Massa - faces the end of a fundraising period tonight. Help all three of them, and all the other netroots candidates. Any donation of any amount is greatly valued.
UPDATE (James L.):
• Great news! As of tonight, all of the Netroots candidates have surpassed past candidate Ciro Rodriguez in terms of total donors. Now, let's see if we can get a few to leapfrog Busby!
Posted at 06:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Netroots August Fundraising Push: Support Joe Sestak
Posted by DavidNYC
Joe Sestak, a recently retired Vice Admiral, took everyone by surprise with his impressive entrance into the race for Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. A political unknown, he raised over $400,000 less than two months after declaring his candidacy. Needless to say, people - the netroots included - took notice.
We quickly learned that Sestak was running in a district that had moved markedly to the left over the years - from R+4.4 in the 90s to D+3.6 - something the local bloggers had, in fact, been pointing out for some time. Sestak's entrace crystallized this fact for the rest of us. Yet despite this shift, incumbent Curt Weldon hadn't received a serious challenge in years.
But then it got better: Those of us not familiar with Weldon soon realized he was a totally unhinged conservative extremist. While Curt Weldon was off selling access to the highest bidder, Joe Sestak was honorably serving his country.
It was hard to believe that Weldon had gone unchallenged for so long, but with a strong Fighting Dem clearly well-positioned to put up a tough fight, we realized Joe Sestak was a perfect fit for the netroots page - and, it turns out, vice-versa. From the Washington Post, just a few days ago:
Sestak is getting support from traditional sources such as labor unions and newer ones such as the "Net roots" -- online activists who are channeling significant sums to anti[-Iraq ]war Democrats. He has raised $230,000 online this cycle, including thousands through blogs."We really hit a vein," he said.
Indeed he has. Around a month after the netroots endorsement, Sestak was added to the first wave of the DCCC's Red to Blue list. This fit perfectly into our strategy of helping to get the ball rolling so that the big boys take notice and come in later. Of course, it's our privilege to stick with Joe until he crosses the finish line in November. So please consider contributing or volunteering today.
Posted at 04:30 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
WY-AL: Barbara Cubin Has Another Lousy Primary Showing
Posted by RBHThe results from the August 22nd Primary:
Barbara Cubin - 51,050 (60%)
Bill Winney - 33,955 (40%)
Cubin spent $464,715 though August 2nd, Winney spent $18,645.
In 2004, Cubin won a five-way primary with 55%. Two of her primary opponents spent over $100K in the 03/04 cycle. She then went on to win the general election by a 55-42 margin over Ted Ladd (who spent $373436). Meanwhile, Bush was beating Kerry by a 69-29 margin in Wyoming.
According to SurveyUSA, Bush's approval rating in Wyoming is 52%.
In the 2004 General Election, the CNN exit poll claims that Cubin won 76% of Republicans, 42% of Independents, and 18% of Democrats. The partisan split there was 53% Republican, 25% Democrat, 22% Independent. She ran 19% behind Bush amongst Republicans, 12% behind him amongst Independents and 9% behind him amongst Democrats.
Barbara Cubin has another serious opponent this year and his name is Gary Trauner. Gary has $205,914 on hand and has spent $241,693 so far.
With Cubin's weak showing in 2004, a vastly popular Democratic Governor on the ballot in 2006, and the whole thing about Republicans being in bad shape in general, Cubin is a lot more vulnerable than we know right now. Given the right momentum, Dick Cheney's Representative in 2007 could be a Democrat.
CQPolitics.com says this about Cubin's race
Cubin has struggled to win unanimous support among party members, in part because some party leaders think she has not adequately dealt with the state’s pressing issues, including the prevalence of methamphetamine. The Wyoming Tribune-Eagle newspaper, in an unenthusiastic endorsement of Cubin, said she showed a “lack of leadership” but was “the best that the Republican Party has to offer at this time.”
The sheer number of Republicans in Wyoming are enough of a reason to be discouraged here. But then again, Trauner recieving 1/4th of the Republican vote is conceivable. He's definately on equal ground, cash-wise and he should be encouraged that a guy who spent $18645 got around 1.82 votes for every dollar he spent.
Posted at 08:42 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Wyoming | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Netroots August Fundraising Push: Support Jerry McNerney
Posted by James L.
As the August combined Netroots fundraising push kicks into gear, it's time that we look back upon each of the Netroots-endorsed challengers and remind ourselves why their fight is worthy of our resources and attention this fall. Let's start with CA-11 challenger, Jerry McNerney.
McNerney is in the unique position of being endorsed by BOTH of his opponent's Republican primary challengers (including former Rep. Pete McCloskey, author of the Endangered Species Act), and being on the receiving end of major assistance from local and national environmental groups who are scrambling to defeat the incumbent, Richard Pombo. Pombo was made infamous for using taxpayer's money to go on a family vacation to various national parks--and then turning around and proposing the sale of these national parks to the same developers who supported his campaigns.
McNerney, on the other hand, is a true progressive champion, and as a former CEO of a wind power company, he would be an invaluable voice in the next Congress for renewable and alternative energy policies. If McNerney could catch the eye of the DCCC with the help of a strong netroots and grassroots push, Pombo would be facing a perfect storm against him this November.
Please support Jerry McNerney and the Netroots candidates today.
Posted at 02:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Fundraising, Netroots | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, August 21, 2006
NH-02: Hodes (D) Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat
Posted by DavidNYCAnzalone-Liszt Research for netroots candidate Paul Hodes (likely voters including leaners, no trendlines):
Hodes (D): 42
Bass (R-inc.): 43
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)
Without leaners, it's a pure tie, 40-40. The absolutely amazing thing is that Bass has full name recognition - 94%. Hodes, meanwhile, is at just 27%. The only thing which can explain this is extreme voter dissastisfaction with incumbents and Republicans. Charlie Bass, of course, is both.
And this is born out by the other questions asked by the poll. An impressive 69% of second district voters give George Bush a negative approval rating, while 75% do the same for Congress. Interestingly, a whopping 79% approve of Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who is cruising to re-election. Clearly, New Hampshirites like the Dems back home but are sick of the Republicans who have lost touch down in Washington.
While I don't have the party ID breakdown for this poll, the accompanying press release notes:
The polling sample used reflects the slight Republican registration advantage of the 2nd district.
Earlier today, I happened to crunch the numbers myself, based on the data available from the NH Secretary of State. Turns out that registration in the 2nd CD is 30R-26D-44I - a four-point net GOP advantage. And these numbers are a couple of years old - if anything, I'd believe the GOP edge is a bit smaller now.
So remember that UNH poll we disected a while back? It had a partisan breakdown of 32R-23D-38I, a nine-point Republican edge. Clearly, that just doesn't reflect reality. The Hodes people - like the folks at most campaigns - want accurate numbers so that they can have a proper sense of how the field looks. Academic operations are much less concerned with partisan weighting. So if you ask me which numbers I trust, I'm inclined to think the Hodes survey is a lot closer to reality.
And since this is the netroots fundraising push week, I of course will end this post with an exhortation to donate to Paul Hodes and all the netroots candidates!
P.S. You can read the complete polling memo summary here (PDF).
Posted at 08:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, August 19, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo
Posted by James L.Not content to let uber-corrupt anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo off the hook without a major air war, the Wildlife Action Fund has stepped up to the plate in CA-11 with two new TV ads.
"The Office":
"The Principal":
It would be great if Netroots candidate Jerry McNerney could augment these ads with some biographical/contrast spots of his own to really seal the deal. Barbara Boxer is hosting a fundraiser for him on the 25th, so hopefully Jerry will have the necessary resources to get on the air.
Posted at 03:20 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, August 18, 2006
WA-08: And So Do We
Posted by James L.Here's the first sign that Ned Lamont's media campaign is gaining notice and respect from other political ad firms: check out Netroots candidate Darcy Burner's first tv ad (60 seconds, WMV). Wait for the end and try not to do a spit take.
Posted at 03:12 AM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut, Washington | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Riddle Me This
Posted by James L.Say you're the Texas GOP, and you want to clear the field for just one candidate in the open seat race created by Tom DeLay's slow crawl back into the bowels of the earth. Your only option is a write-in campaign, which is always incredibly exhausting and expensive to pull off. Among other things, your best bet would be to coalesce around someone with deep and broad name recognition--someone whose name voters won't be likely to forget how to spell in November. So, tell me, why would you pick a city councillor with a hyphen in her name, instead of someone with a high profile and an easy name to remember (like, say, Sugar Land mayor David Wallace)? Yeah, that's right; the TX GOP has decided to close ranks around Houston city councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs as their candidate of choice.
I can just see the scene now: cranky 70 year-old Republican die-hards trying to figure out if they're supposed to vote for Shellie or Shelly or Sekulagibs or Gibbs-Sekula or God knows what permutation pops up into their mind... before they decide to screw it all and vote for the Libertarian, Bob Smither, instead.
Oh, hey, speaking of that Libertarian: as the TX GOP, you're going to have to deal with fringe elements of your own party endorsing Smither as the only obvious choice on the ballot for rigid conservatives. On top of that, you'll also have to deal with the fallout from your behind-closed-gates endorsement decision with key elements of your local party's machinery in open revolt, mucking up your efforts to push Secula-Gibs (or however they want you to spell it):
However, in a letter to candidates Wednesday, Gary Gillen, chairman of the Fort Bend County GOP, was critical of the state party’s calling for a “gathering” of precinct chairs.
[...]
“In my opinion, the Republican Party leadership in Austin has chosen to organize local Republicans into a secret, exclusionary process that only reinforces the perception of a backroom deal and the perception we have something to hide,” Gillen wrote. “Anyone wanting to run should pay the fee and get your running shoes on."
In short, at this stage in the game, I'd say you're screwed.
Update: Swing State Project reader Patrick writes in to share that Sek-Ulagibz's hyphenated name is not her only disadvantage:
Her name sounds like...like...SECULAR!!!!!!(*gasp*)
Update II:: Commenter "Rhymes With Right" chimes in with some pretty crucial info that renders much of this post moot:
Mind a little input from a GOP precinct chair/election judge who has been involved in the process ever since The Virginian screwed, blued, and tattooed CD22 this spring?1) Under Texas law, every booth will have a list of write-in candidates hanging in it showing all write-in candidates for all offices. That was done with Nader in 2004.
2) The Texas standard for write-in votes is intent of the voter. It isn't a spelling test. Indeed, all the verious permutations of her name you proposed above would be sufficient to get a vote counted for Dr. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, barring the possibility that they find a Texan named Sheldon Secular-Godd to run against her. Indeed, based upon past practice, SSG would be sufficient to to get a vote counted in the good doctor's favor if such a hypothetical candidate does not exist.
This clearly makes the task for Secular Ribs a lot easier than I assumed. Still, this race is totally advantage: Lampson. With a Libertarian fracturing the Republican vote and even a sliver of Republicans voting for Wallace (assuming he stays on), Lampson is looking good. Of course, finding someone named Sheldon Secular-Godd to run on the ballot wouldn't hurt, either.
Posted at 12:33 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 17, 2006
AFL-CIO Is Getting It in NY
Posted by DavidNYCPeter King Watch provides us with a complete list of AFL-CIO House race endorsements in New York State:
1. Tim Bishop (D)
2. Steve J. Israel (D,I,WF)
3. Dave Mejias (D/WF)
4. Carolyn McCarthy (D)
5. Gary L. Ackerman (D)
6. No Endorsement
7. Joseph Crowley (D)
8. Jerrold Nadler (D)
9. Anthony Weiner (D)
10. No Endorsement
11. Carl Andrews (D)
12. Nydia M. Velazquez (D)
13. Stephen Harrison (D)
14. Carolyn B. Maloney (D)
15. Charles B. Rangel (D)
16. Jose E. Serrano (D)
17. Eliot L. Engel (D, L, WF)
18. Nita M. Lowey (D)
19. John Hall (D)
20. Kirsten Gillibrand (D/I/WF)
21. Michael R. McNulty (D)
22. Maurice Hinchey (D,I,WF)
23. John McHugh (R)
24. Mike Arcuri (D/I/WF)
25. Dan Maffei (D/WF)
26. Jack Davis, Jr. (D/I/WF)
27. Brian M. Higgins (D)
28. Louise M. Slaughter (D)
29. Eric Massa (D/WF)
Twenty-nine races and only one Republican nod. But it goes beyond that. Peter King (3rd CD) has always gotten the AFL-CIO nod in the past - this year, they're hanging him out to dry. Ed Towns (10th CD) has been an extremely disloyal Dem of late, and here the AFL is snubbing him. And as you saw a few days ago, they also switched support from Kuhl to Massa in the 29th CD. This endorsement is also welcome news for a whole spate of Dem challengers, but especially John Hall, who faces a primary in CD 19.
Unfortunately, the AFL-CIO is supporting Republican state Sen. Nicholas Spano in his rematch against Andrea Stewart-Cousins. This is really disappointing, because Stewart-Cousins lost in 2004 by a mere 18 votes - and a left-leaning group played a role in that loss.
That year, the Working Families Party (as you might guess, a pro-labor third party) gave their line to Spano - not because Stewart-Cousins had a bad record on labor issues (to the contrary), but because they thought Spano could better advance the cause of increasing the minimum wage in the state Senate. Needless to say, Spano got far more than 18 votes on the WFP line - votes which would have overwhelmingly gone to the Dem had she gotten that line instead.
Of course, a Dem-controlled Senate would be a lot more helpful to all manner of issues which affect working families, and we're very close to achieving a majority in that body. I think the WFP made a major mistake supporting Spano last time, but I think they realized that, because they did not endorse him this year. I wish the AFL-CIO would follow the WFP's lead. Hey, if they could switch from Kuhl to Massa, maybe it's not too late for Stewart-Cousins.
Posted at 01:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NH-02: Rahm at Hodes Fundraiser
Posted by DavidNYCI don't know any details, but I sure do like the sound of this little tidbit:
Democrat Paul Hodes said today he supports legislation that would give anyone in college or graduate school a three-thousand dollar tax credit each year....
The tax credit is sponsored by Illinois congressman Rahm Emmanuel, who is heading the Democratic Party's effort to elect more Democrats to the House of Representatives. Emmanuel also appeared at a fundraiser for Hodes in Boston last night. (Emphasis added.)
It's all about that last line. Rahm Emanuel doesn't just randomly appear at fundraisers for just anyone. He's only gonna stick his neck out for legit candidates. With any luck, this is a sign that there might be a spot for Hodes on the D-Trip's Red-to-Blue list at some point soon.
(Thanks to MissLaura for the catch.)
Posted at 12:05 AM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
TX-22: Cook Changes Rating to Lean-Dem
Posted by DavidNYCFrom a Cook Report e-mail (also available on the site's front page):
TX-22 Open (DeLay) moves from Toss-Up to Lean D. Winning a write-in campaign is hard enough, but squabbling among Republicans in the district means that there may not be a consensus candidate for the national and state party to rally around. While this district retains a good Republican advantage – and there’s always room to be surprised in politics – the benefit of the doubt now goes to Democrat Nick Lampson.
This marks the first time, I believe, that Cook (or any pro prognosticator, for that matter) has marked a GOP-held House seat as anything better than a tossup. Obviously, the circumstances here are extremely unusual (and CQ notes that only four federal write-in campaigns have succeeded over the past 52 years). But I wonder if any other GOP seats will move into the Dem column over the next few months.
Posted at 06:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New Progressive Patriots Fund Vote
Posted by James L.Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots Fund is back in action, and they're asking for your vote in deciding who to send a fat $5000 check to. As always, they've chosen an interesting mix of candidates from all tiers and corners of the country. The one thing I really dig about Feingold's PAC is that they don't slap together a list entirely composed DCCC-backed candidates. The DCCC casts as wide a net as they think is viable, but there's always a few worthy races left behind. Here's the list of candidates (Netroots candidates in bold):
Tim Barnwell (TX-26)
Phyllis Busansky (FL-09)
David Gill (IL-15)
Jim Hansen (ID-02)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Chris Murphy (CT-05)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Nancy Skinner (MI-09)
Carol Voisin (OR-02)
Patty Wetterling (MN-06)
I won't tell you who to vote for in this contest, but I will make a suggestion: Larry Kissell. He could use the extra scratch more badly than either of the other Netroots-endorsed candidates, and from what I've seen, Kissell is running a great campaign with the minimal resources that he's got. His best move so far has been to sell gas at $1.22/gallon--the price it was when incumbent NC-08 congressman Robin Hayes took office in 1999. Over 500 cars lined up to take advantage of the stunt (you can be sure that they instantly converted to dyed-in-the-wool Kissell voters) and Kissell picked up loads of free airtime on local TV and radio news because of it. And would you know it? The expert prognosticators shot up and took notice, praising the stunt as an example for all other attention-starved second-tier campaigns to follow. This guy knows how to campaign on the cheap, so just imagine what he could do with some extra scratch.
But those are just my two cents. Have your say here. Voting ends on August 23.
Update: If this contest matches the last Progressive Patriots Fund vote, I would assume that the other candidates will also receive smaller contributions depending on their share of the vote.
Posted at 02:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-03: Dem Candidate Drops Out; Could Hackett Jump In?
Posted by DavidNYCStephanie Studebaker, the Democratic candidate in OH-03, has formally withdrawn from the race after being arrested on domestic violence charges. The Buckeye State Blog does an extensive roundup on who might replace her. The most intriguing name at the top of the list: One Paul Hackett.
This southwestern Ohio district is R+2.9 - in other words, far less Republican than neighboring OH-02 (R+13.1). If Hackett jumped in, he'd make the race instantly competitive. All the Hackettistas still carrying a torch for him would give him an instant cash infusion, and I think Rahm Emanuel - who wanted Hackett to challenge Jean Schmidt again - might be interested in getting involved as well.
I think this idea is a lot less crazy than it would have been earlier in the year. If you'll recall, around a month ago, Hackett finally endorsed Sherrod Brown. So maybe he's more interested in being a team player now. And if he jumped in in OH-03, he wouldn't be going back on any promises not to push other candidates out of the race, since right now there is no Democratic candidate.
Can Hackett fans convince their man to get back into the ring? We'll see.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New Hotline House Race Rankings Out
Posted by DavidNYCChuck Todd's newest House race rankings are available here. Five netroots candidates make the list (previous rankings in parens):
15 (26) Patrick Murphy
16 (17) Joe Sestak
19 (24) Darcy Burner
46 (--) Paul Hodes
50 (49) Jerry McNerney
Hodes is back after being dropped from the previous list. And bullish jumps for Burner and especially Murphy. If you disagree with Todd's rankings, fill out the reader rankings in the left-hand sidebar. (Results are here.)
Posted at 01:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
PA-10: Carney (D) First to Go Up on TV
Posted by DavidNYCThis is good news. From a Carney campaign press release:
Today, Chris Carney put his first television ad, "Pennsylvania Values" on the air. This is a huge victory because Don Sherwood has already started a campaign of negative attacks that the Towanda Daily Review called "ugly," "irresponsible," and a "low blow.""Chris Carney beat Don Sherwood to television so he can tell the truth about himself, his family, and the values he will take to Washington," said Carney campaign manager Andrew Eldredge-Martin. "Beating Sherwood to television is a huge victory for all the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who support our campaign to take our values back to Congress. In fact, this first ad includes both Republican and Democratic supporters who are all ready for a change in Washington."
You can find the ad here.
Why, you might be asking, does this matter? I mean, doesn't this seem like the ultimate insider baseball - who has ads on TV first? It's not like voters care about ridiculous stuff like this, right? Well, of course they don't. But what matters - as Carney's campaign manager explains above - is that Carney can now tell his story to the voters of the tenth district. By going up on TV before Sherwood does, Carney can blunt Sherwood's ability to drive up Carney's negatives.
Chris Bowers has a new post up on the so-called "incumbent rule," which holds that most undecided voters will break for a challenger on election day. However, this rule has weakened considerably in recent elections, notably in 2002 (see Wayne Allard, CO-Sen) and especially in 2004 (George Bush and many others).
One of the oft-cited reasons (discussed by Chris) for this phenomenon is that incumbents have started slamming their opponents hard and early. Thus, by the time undecided voters get to the polling booth, they are presented not with one known and one unknown quantity, but rather one known and one undesirable quantity. So naturally, they start sticking with the incumbent.
Carney is in a fortunate position, in that he has enough cash to go up on the air, and in that the media market in PA-10 is very, very cheap (especially compared to other competitive Northeastern races). Every Democrat who can expect a nasty, negative campaign from his or her opponent (ie, every Democrat on the face of the earth) should consider taking a cue from this move.
Now, I'm not merely extolling the virtues of paid media, which many consultants will do to the deleterious exclusion of all else. Rather, I'm praising Carney's timing. If you're gonna spend money to get noticed, and you can afford to go up before your opponent slanders you as a lily-livered, Bible-burning, hate-America terra-ist, then do it. Obviously, the move has to be carefully calculated - you don't want to wind up like Matt Brown in Rhode Island. But, of course, you also don't want to wait too long to go on the offensive. Just ask John Kerry.
Posted at 12:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
NY-29: AFL-CIO Defects to Massa
Posted by James L.Great news from the Eric Massa Campaign:
For the second time in a week, a major labor organization announced its endorsement of Retired Navy Commander Eric Massa for Congress, switching support from incumbent Randy Kuhl (R, NY-29). The AFL-CIO, a federation of 53 labor unions, made the announcement following its annual meeting in Albany.The endorsement, a major score for Massa, is another in a growing list of labor organizations, elected officials, and public figures that are endorsing or supporting Massa in his campaign to unseat Kuhl. Just four days ago, the New York State United Teachers (NYSUT) switched their long-time support from Kuhl to Massa. It is highly unusual for labor organizations to endorse a non-incumbent.
AFL-CIO representative Peggy Costello said, “In years past, we’ve based our endorsements on voting records. Randy Kuhl’s record in the NY State legislature was generally acceptable. In Congress, however, we rate his record as very weak, no more than 35% favorable to labor interests.”
The AFL-CIO assesses legislators based on voting patterns on a list of key issues, including health care, pensions, and public support for higher education, Costello said. “Eric Massa is very strong in all these areas, and Kuhl has consistently failed to deliver.”
Massa undoubtedly has a little extra jump in his step after today. With labor coming onside, Eric is well-positioned to take advantage of the deadly Democratic wave sweeping from Buffalo to Long Island under the Spitzer-Clinton banner.
On the web: Eric Massa for Congress.
(Hat tip to MyDD.)
Posted at 07:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 10, 2006
NY-03: Peter King Says Lamont Supporters Are "Bigots"
Posted by DavidNYCAdd Peter King to the list of people who hate democracy:
King said the Connecticut primary has no bearing on his re-election race because "fortunately, the Third District is not composed of the left-wing bigots who went after Joe Lieberman."
You can read the article to find yet another iteration of the "this means Dems aren't serious on national security" line of attack. The GOP clearly plans to use this over and over until November. I really wonder if it will resonate, though.
(Hat-tip to Dave Mejias for Congress.)
Posted at 11:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
My Tuesday Primary Review
Posted by RBHClearly we know about the biggest news of the night. Despite all the advantages of incumbency, Joe Lieberman was unable to win the primary tonight. Lawmakers who had either supported Lieberman or had stayed neutral are also turning their support to Ned Lamont. Including Evan Bayh and Hillary, and more people will likely speak up soon.
When it comes to the effects of a Lieberman candidacy in November. I still think that people overrate his chances in November. Money just doesn't come out of nowhere. And Lieberman will need money in order to help himself out in November. While Ned Lamont would need some help to get himself on solid ground, he'll also get a lot of things which he did not have for today.
Joe Lieberman's main source of new money will likely come from people who are donors to Republican candidates. The Republicans will be the ones supporting Lieberman, and money that could have went to Shays, Johnson, or Simmons, will be going to Lieberman. That's only a subtle favor, not any sort of big victory for the Democratic candidates running in those districts.
But I'd rather armwrestle Hulk Hogan than get into a money war with the Republicans. There's legitimate reason for concern when it comes to the Democratic challengers in all the purple districts.
I would certainly hope that Joe Lieberman rethinks his plan to run as an Independent, but I'm not expecting a change in his plans for September and October. I would also hope that those people who gave money to Joe Lieberman and who disapprove of his independent candidacy would ask for a refund or return of their contribution.
As for the other races, here are the highlights:
Colorado: Jeff Crank and Doug Lamborn are the frontrunners in CO-05. The winner faces Jay Fawcett. Ed Perlmutter defeats Peggy Lamm in CO-07.
Georgia: Hank Johnson defeats Cynthia McKinney in GA-04. Expect Cynthia to release the official list of people "to blame for Johnson winning" soon, odds are that "Republicans" will top that list. Ha Ha.
Michigan: Joe Schwarz loses to Tim Walberg. Mike Bouchard looks like the winner in the Republican Senate primary. Knollenberg wins 69-31.
Missouri: Lots of Democrats voted, Lots of Republicans voted, but there weren't a lot of close federal races. Over 80% of precincts are in. Akin rolls over Parker (87-13). No word on who'll face Akin, but the frontrunners are Charles Karam and George Weber. Alan Conner, who spent $246K to try and win the MO-04 nomination, lost by 22 points to Jim Noland, who hasn't filed with the FEC, and who has lost three straight elections to Ike Skelton. Noland's wife suing Conner was probably not helpful to Conner's campaign. This should tell you that there's some things that money can't buy. Sara Jo Shettles and Duane Burghard were both uncontested in their primaries to face Sam Graves and Kenny Hulshof. They also outpolled their opponents. Although in the case of MO-09, that's not exactly a feat of strength, but it's a pretty good sign. And yes, I just gave the longest writeup to my own state. I have the keyboard here, after all.
Any night where three incumbents go down is a night of pretty big activity. It should be a sign that being an incumbent in November is not going to be a pleasant thing.
That's my analysis of the night's events. I'm sure that one of the regulars (who isn't on vacation) will have something to say as well.
Posted at 01:43 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
TX-22: Bugman Exterminated
Posted by DavidNYCVia Jesse Lee at the DCCC, the AP has the scoop:
Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay intends to withdraw as a candidate for Congress, a Republican strategist said Tuesday, a step that would allow the party to field a write-in candidate in hopes of holding his seat.The development came one day after Texas Republicans lost a court battle in their bid to replace DeLay on the November ballot.
There will be no Republican candidate to face Democrat Nick Lampson, a former House member.
Charlie Wilson pulled off a write-in victory in the OH-06 Democratic primary, and even though that was a decidedly smaller affair, it still cost a ton of money. I have to imagine that even in a deep-red district like this one, a general election write-in campaign would be extremely tough for the GOP. So is this race now Lean Dem? I don't want to get too giddy, but I'd have to imagine that it is.
Posted at 03:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Monday, August 07, 2006
CO, CT, GA, MI, MO: Tuesday Primary Election Preview
Posted by RBHHere's the rundown of the elections which will likely produce news tomorrow.
Starting off first in Colorado where the biggest races are the Republican Primary in the 5th District and the Democratic Primary in the 7th District.
In the 5th district race, the winning Republican will likely face Jay Fawcett (who is the frontrunner in his primary). From a short combing though Google News, we find that Doug Lamborn has the Club for Growth supporters with him, Hefley supporters are apparently supporting Crank. Basically the entire primary could end with the winner recieving a very low percentage of the vote, under 40%, maybe under 35%. But right now, the winner is anybody's guess. I should note that Anderson (who is running as pro-choice, which means "pro-choice compared to other Republicans), Bremer (Paul Bremer's brother), and Rayburn (retired Air Force General) are all wildcards and they could get a surprising number of votes.
In the 7th district, the favorite to face Rick O'Donnell appears to be Ed Perlmutter. Ed has had a pretty solid lead in SurveyUSA polls over Peggy Lamm. But then again in an election like this, surprises will occur.
Moving on to Connecticut.
The big race is between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. It appears to be a pretty big deal. Basically the results could go either way, although Lamont is going into the election with a 6 point lead in the latest Quinnipac poll. I'm pretty sure that this race will be the top attraction, and also the one race which does not require a long explanation.
In Georgia, the big election is between Cynthia McKinney and Hank Johnson in the 4th district. McKinney had a plurality last time, but for this election, it could go either way.
In Michigan, the biggest race will be in MI-07 between Congressman Joe Schwarz and Tim Walberg. Schwarz is under fire from the right in this campaign and could be on the way out of Congress. The likely Democratic nominee is Sharon Renier. In other races, I'm expecting Keith Mike Bouchard to win the Republican Senate primary and I wouldn't be stunned if Patricia Godchaux got around 1/3rd of the vote in her primary against Congressman Joe Knollenberg.
In Missouri, no major races will occur in the primaries. The closest primary race will probably be in MO-02 between Akin and Sherman Parker, and that's probably not due to be close at all. Claire McCaskill and Jim Talent are expected to cruise over their unknown opponents.
So, on this election day, there's one more question: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted at 11:48 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Colorado, Connecticut, Democrats, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, Netroots, Republicans | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
LA: Filing To Commence This Week
Posted by RBHI counted the number of contested seats and the current numbers are 419 Democrats and 384 Republicans (for 428 seats, excluding Louisiana's seats). Other counts may differ slightly. But here's the info on Louisiana's filing, which will occur this week.
Qualifying Dates and InformationQualifying for Congressional Primary Election scheduled November 7, 2006:
U.S. Representatives, Districts 1-7Candidates for the above-captioned offices will qualify with the Secretary of State beginning on:
August 9, 2006 from 8:00 AM to 4:30 PM
August 10, 2006 from 8:00 AM to 4:30 PM
August 11, 2006 from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM
Barring any sudden change in state policy, the requirements in Louisiana are either $600, and $300 to the party, or 1,000 signatures
When it comes to races, Louisiana isn't expected to have any pickup opportunities. But, since this is Louisiana, sudden changes in fate may occur. William Jefferson may recieve some serious competition from within the Democratic party. Barring any changes in status, Democratic challengers in Louisiana include Stacey Tallitsch in LA-01, Artis Cash in LA-04, and Mike Stagg in LA-07. Alexander (LA-05) and Baker (LA-06) did recieve competition in 2004, but they're not likely to recieve serious competition.
When it comes to a full slate, it's surprisingly likely. In the other 10 Southern states, Democrats filed in 118 of 124 districts with full slates in 5 of those states. In 2004, Democrats had candidates in 101 of those 124 districts.
Expect an overview for the primaries tomorrow sometime either tonight, or tomorrow. It'll be big, and not just because of the Lieberman race.
Posted at 03:59 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Louisiana | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-18: Ney Takes The DeLay Way Out
Posted by RBHNey's leaving now, (fortunately for Ney, it appears to be a legal strategy):
Rep. Bob Ney, enmeshed in a congressional corruption scandal, abruptly abandoned his race for re-election Monday after months of prodding from Republican leaders worried about losing his seat this fall.Ney said in a statement he is innocent of any wrongdoing, and had acted for the sake of his family. "I must think of them first, and I can no longer put them through this ordeal," he said.
Unfortunately for Mr. Ney, dropping out of a Congressional race does not mean that all the investigations into your corruption will disappear.
So, when it comes to replacements, which Republican did he hand the ball to?
A Republican who accused a former hostage of Hezbollah of being soft on terrorism
Padgett Accused Her Opponent of Being Soft on Terrorists. Padgett’s 2004 Senate opponent was a former foreign correspondent for The Associated Press who became famous after Shiite Hezbollah terrorists kidnapped him and held him hostage in Lebanon for almost seven years. Padgett accused him of anti-American behavior and that he is soft on terrorists. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Padgett, also “sent out campaign mailings this month showing Anderson with a Hezbollah terrorist leader. She called Anderson “part of the ‘Blame America’ crowd” that is sympathetic to Mideast thugs intent on hurting Americans.” What she failed to mention was that the terrorist pictured with Anderson was the secretary general of Hezbollah, the group that abducted him in 1985. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 10/30/04]
The women of the Ohio Republican Party sure are pleasant, nice, down to earth people. (Although that quote doesn't mention that Padgett also compared Anderson to the 'supreme villain' that is Dan Rather)
The Republican switcheroo doesn't appear to have a huge effect on Zack Space. The Republicans didn't nominate Mr. Clean. Also, Space will have a CoH advantage for awhile, and should be pretty well off money-wise for most of the way to election day. Since this is now an open seat, he'll benefit. As well, if Padgett lives up to her reputation from the Anderson race, Space could benefit by getting people who are sick of nasty attacks.
Either way, things just got even more heated in OH-18.
Posted at 02:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Culture of Corruption, Ohio | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, August 04, 2006
TX-23: Looking More Blue Today
Posted by RBHThe results from the newest Texas Redistricting have come in, and Burnt Orange Report is there!
The re-re-redistricting affected the following districts: TX-15 (Hinojosa), TX-21 (Smith), TX-23 (Bonilla), TX-25 (Doggett), and TX-28 (Cuellar).
Hinojosa's new district is much more compact than the current district. Smith's district appears to be redder than before which will make things harder for John Courage. Doggett actually got a pretty good setup. He now has his part of Travis county, plus more of Travis County, and some assorted counties to the east. Cuellar's district adds all of Webb county, and subtracts Bexar county.
Early reports suggest that Bonilla is in a competitive district again. Of course, with an open primary just 3 months away, Bonilla has a pretty good advantage. No word on if there'll be any sort of stampede of candidates for Bonilla's district, or if Rick Bolanos will get an uncontested shot at Bonilla.
Election implications: Lightning might strike and somebody big might step in to face Bonilla, although I doubt it. Running for Congress now in Texas probably carries the same shot of victory as running a marathon on the fly. I do expect Cuellar and Doggett to get actual Republican opponents, but nothing serious.
Posted at 07:10 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TN: Other Results From The Tennessee Primary
Posted by RBHYour winner in the 9th District is Steve Cohen.
Steve Cohen: 29
Nikki Tinker: 27
Joe Ford Jr: 14
The Other 11: 30
Cohen's 2004 TN Sen NPAT shows him as being more liberal than Harold Ford Jr, and barring some giant surge for Independent candidate Jake Ford, Cohen should win this election easily.
The winner in TN-01 appears to be David Davis.
The November matchups in Tennessee
TN-01: David Davis (R) v. Morristown City Councilman Rick Trent (D)
TN-02: Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R) v. John Greene (D)
TN-03: Rep. Zach Wamp (R) v. Brent Benedict (D)
TN-04: Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) v. Ken Martin (R)
TN-05: Rep. Jim Cooper (D) v. Tom Kovach (R)
TN-06: Rep. Bart Gordon (D) v. David R. Davis (R)
TN-07: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) v. Bill Morrison (D)
TN-08: Rep. John Tanner (D) v. John Farmer (R)
TN-09: Steve Cohen (D) v. Mark White (R)
No switches are expected though. I think the only real primary surprise would be Benedict beating Terry Stulce. But then again, it probably says more for Stulce that he spent $47K and lost to someone who hasn't filed an FEC report.
I'd love to see more Tennessee results, but their official page hasn't posted results due to late returns. Yes, seriously.
Posted at 02:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Tennessee | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
PA-06: Dead Heat
Posted by DavidNYCLois Murphy's campaign just released a new internal poll (likely voters, no trendlines):
Murphy (D): 42
Gerlach (R-inc.): 41
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Obviously, few details apart from the top-line numbers have been released, but the poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, which I understand to be a pretty reliable outfit. Hopefully we'll learn more about the MoE, etc., soon. [UPDATE: MoE, voter type, and undecided percentage all added, via Polling Report. Also, Gerlach has a 37-46 job approval rating according to this poll.]
In any event, if you followed House elections closely last time, you may recall that Lois Murphy was one of the "DKos Dozen" candidates, sort of a predecessor to the netroots list.You may also remember that Lois Murphy suffered one of the most heart-breakingly narrow losses, losing just 51-49 (less than 7,000 votes out of over 300K cast). She raised a ton of money and ran an excellent campaign - and she's doing that once more this year. She is one of my favorite candidates this cycle, and I've long felt she is our single-best chance of beating a Republican incumbent. If we win only one seat this year, we'd win PA-06.
The flip-side, of course, is that if we do poorly in PA-06, we're almost certainly doomed - which is why, needless to say, I'm glad to see this poll showing the race so competitive. You may recall my cash-on-hand competitiveness chart: Lois Murphy is at the very top of the list, one of only four Dems who actually has more money on hand than her opponent. She'll need every penny, though: This campaign got started incredibly early, and Gerlach has been working furiously trying to tarnish Murphy's name.
But Gerlach himself is being dragged down by the Bush anvil. And, near as I can tell, Murphy has run a picture-perfect campaign. There's still a long, hard slog ahead in PA-06 - just like there is in every race throughout the country - but I feel very good about this race.
Posted at 01:51 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 03, 2006
TX-22: Won't Get Fooled Again
Posted by DavidNYCIn a twist of fate on the level of a triple lutz, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that... well, just enjoy it:
A federal appeals court panel on Thursday refused to let Texas Republicans replace Tom DeLay's name on the November congressional ballot.A three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a ruling by U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, who said in July that DeLay name had to stay on the ballot even though he quit from Congress and moved to Virginia.
As glad as I am to see DeLay have to deal with all of this, he will no doubt blame this turn of events on a Democratic conspiracy (two of the judges on the appeals panel were Dem-appointed). DeLay will rewrite history to say that they tried to keep him out, but couldn't prevent his victorious "return" - and his supporters will gobble it up. Republicans have gotten very good at playing the victim card lately, and DeLay can cast himself as both a victim and a martyr, the ultimate combo. In other words, Nick Lampson still has a very serious race on his hands, despite all his cash-on-hand. I think DeLay might be able to rake in plenty of pity money.
However, I think we're all hoping that DeLay can still be used as an icon of corruption, especially if his trial proceeds forward during the next few months. Hopefully he's still a potent symbol Republican excess.
(Hat tip: DCCC.)
Posted at 02:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
OH-02: Pearls of Wisdom From Jean Schmidt
Posted by James L.Wow. Check THIS out. Ohio's greatest embarrassment, congresswoman Jean Schmidt, has just released a newsletter addressing the sensitive issue of anti-Americanism in the Middle East. I haven't read essays this juvenile or poorly written outside of a fourth grade classroom. I'm not even kidding. The Vic Wulsin for Congress Blog has the goods.
Get a load of nuggets like this one:
The Iraqi's perception is that we are all powerful. We watch them from space with technology they cannot even imagine. Surely if we wanted to turn on his electricity we could do so. He has no idea how large the problem is but he knows we can do anything. He was angry. Eventually his air conditioning began running and his anger cooled.
Um. Wow. Yes, I do believe she compared Iraqi citizens to dumbed-down 'savages' who can't tell the difference between the American armed forces and God (or Allah, in this case).
Words are just failing me right now, folks. I give up.
Posted at 02:12 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
NH-02: New Poll Shows Wider Bass Lead
Posted by DavidNYCThe University of New Hampshire just released a new poll (PDF) on the race in NH-02 (likely voters, May in parens):
Hodes (D): 25 (35)
Bass (R-inc.): 53 (42)
Undecided: 22 (22)
(MoE: ±6.2%)
A few things to note about this poll: Like the last one, it has a huge MoE. Unlike the last survey, though, this poll isn't backed up by any others (yet). A Hodes staffer told me that back in May, the campaign's own polling showed the exact same margin that UNH's did. Hopefully, there will be another poll in the field soon - but this time, I'm betting it won't confirm these newest UNH results. Why do I say that?
First, what's happened in NH-02 over the last three months that could possibly have caused such a huge swing? Do you have any clue? I certainly don't - and that's because the answer is "nothing." This race has barely heated up. Neither candidate is on the air in any meaningful way. The campaign hasn't even experienced much if any controversy yet (Bass's immoral voting record nonwithstanding). And this is born out by the fact that Hodes' name rec numbers are essentially unchanged from the last time out.
Bass, however, saw a big jump (nine points) in his favorability score. Though the PDF linked above doesn't give an exact figure, it does say that Bush's favorability also increased from his May low of 30%. If Bush experienced a jump anything like Bass's (and I wouldn't be surprised if they were similar), you've gotta ask: Why? Is Bush (and by extension Bass) all of a sudden more popular in New Hampshire now than he was three months ago?
I'd have a hard time believing that. But I think I have the answer right here. Check out the partisan breakdown of the survey sample, with the current poll listed first and the May poll in parens:
Democrat: 23% (25%)
Republican: 32% (22%)
Independent: 38% (43%)
Unregistered: 7% (10%)
I think that just about explains things: The current sample has 10% more Republicans than the prior poll. While I'm aware that party ID among independents tends to shift with the political winds, there's been nothing to suggest that even so much as a gentle zephyr has been blowing in the GOP's direction in New Hampshire over the last twelve weeks. What's more, if Bush's favorability shows an increase comparable to Bass's, that would make him more popular in blue New Hampshire than in the nation as a whole - and more popular than he's been in the state since January.
You may be tempted to dismiss this as so much spin from a Hodes partisan. That I am a big supporter of his I would never deny - it's been plain for everyone to see for months. But again I say, this latest survey from UNH isn't backed up by any other polls; it has a huge MoE; and there is a serious issue with the dramatic, unexplained change in sample demographics. If Charlie Bass wants to sleep soundly tonight because of this poll, that's his mistake to make. But Hodes supporters shouldn't be discouraged and should view this poll with the skepticism it merits.
Posted at 05:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, July 31, 2006
TX-22: Stay Tuned...
Posted by James L.Any day now, we'll find out whether the 5th Circuit of Appeals will allow former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson the opportunity to crush Tom DeLay, or whether he'll go head-to-head with the Texas Republican Party's hand-picked replacement. The appeals court has begun hearing arguments today:
A federal appeals panel indicated today that the ability of Republicans to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Delay on the ballot rests on whether there was "conclusive" evidence that he had moved to Virginia.The three-judge panel of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals did not indicate when it would rule. But questions from the panel seemed to favor the Democrats' position that Republican officials could not declare DeLay ineligible for office based on residency prior to election day.
Republican lawyer James Bopp Jr. told the panel that DeLay had given Texas Republican Chairwoman Tina Benkiser enough evidence that she could make a "reasonable prediction" that DeLay would not be a resident of Texas on election day. That evidence included a change of driver's license and voter registration, plus a letter stating he had moved to Virginia.
Bopp said that gave her the power to declare DeLay ineligible to serve if elected and opened the door for replacing him on the ballot.
But Judges Pete Benavides and Edith Clement noted that a candidate like DeLay could move back to Texas by election day and be eligible for office. They said the U.S. Constitution would prohibit a state party official from throwing a candidate off the ballot in such circumstances.
"How can it be conclusive if you can always change your voter registration," Clement asked.
So far, so good. Of course, it'd be much preferable for Lampson to face DeLay, as his campaign warchest is being rapidly siphoned off to pay for his legal defense against his lingering criminal indictment.
Posted at 02:54 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, July 28, 2006
Vote in John Edwards' One America Committee Competition
Posted by James L.Yet another one of the ever-so-popular "you vote for 'em and I'll fundraise for 'em" PAC competitions, this time by John Edwards' One America Committee. The list is pretty fat, and it includes several incumbent Democrats who are looking safe this cycle: Reps. Dennis Moore (KS), Stephanie Herseth (SD), Brian Higgins (NY), and Jim Matheson (UT). So far the shape of things for even the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats this November is looking pretty good, so I would advise against voting for any incumbents--but especially not those incumbents. The bright side is that you can vote for several candidates in a checklist format (so really, you can vote for as many as you want), and there will be two winners who will be the receipients of fundraisers headlined by the former Senator. Vote wisely! You have until August 4.
My only beef: they should have added netroots all-stars Larry Kissell (of John Edwards' home state, no less!) and Swing State Project favorite Paul Hodes.
Posted at 10:53 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, July 27, 2006
NY-03: Peter King's Clueless Vote Against Stem Cells
Posted by DavidNYCDave Mejias, running to unseat Rep. Peter King on Long Island, points out something that I can hardly believe: Last week, Peter King voted against expanding stem cell research. Yes, against it. Now, those of you who know how I feel about this issue know that few things can make me as crazy in the head as the issue of stem cell research. My fiancee has Type I diabetes, and one of my closest friends and mentors is a paraplegic. When reactionary obscurantists like Peter King vote to privilege undifferentiated clumps of cells over my loved ones, I can make the Incredible Hulk look like Emily Post.
But today, that isn't my point. Oh, yes, I am in disbelief, but not concerning the merits of the legislation. Rather, it's the optics of this vote that have me brain-boggled. I can't believe that a Republican in a blue-trending swing district in an extremely blue state headed toward an extremely blue landslide this fall would vote against this. And did I mention that, by the way, over 80% of New Yorkers support stem cell research? I am sure that King has an explanation for what he will undoubtedly call his "principled" vote on his House website, though, right? Wrong. What about his campaign website? Asking you to go look for it would be as cruel as sending kids Easter egg hunt without hiding any Easter eggs first. In other words, his campaign site is about as real as the Easter Bunny.
And that little fact, just like his vote on stem cells, suggests that Peter King really is badly out of touch. What kind of 21st century campaign, less than four months from election day, doesn't have a functioning campaign website where you can make donations? One that's either stupid, arrogant or clueless. I think King is, sooner or later, going to pay a price for being this out-of-step with his constituents.
Speaking of which, I think Mejias could really gain some traction on King's stem cell vote. This is an uphill battle no matter what - it always is, when you go up against an incumbent, especially in the most expensive media market known to man. But this race is right in my back yard, so I can hardly ignore it. And Mejias did manage to raise over $200K in a very short period last quarter (he got a late start), which indicates he might have some pop in his bat. (Extra scratch is always welcome.) His task, as I see it, is to give Long Islanders a reason to stop liking (or tolerating) Peter King. In other words, he's got to drive up King's negatives. And King just handed Dave a great weapon to do that with.
Posted at 10:53 AM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
KY-04: Lucas Leads Davis By 9 Points
Posted by James L.From the Bluegrass Report comes a new SUSA poll on Kentucky's 4th Congressional District race, where popular former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas is challenging first-term incumbent Geoff Davis for his old seat after stepping down to honor a term limit pledge in 2004 (likely voters):
Ken Lucas (D): 50
Geoff Davis (R-Inc.): 41
Undecided: 8
MoE: ±4.7%
The results reinforce internal polling by the Lucas campaign back in February that showed the former congressman leading Davis by a ten point margin (47-37). Despite a significant cash disadvantage, Lucas is well positioned to pick off another Republican seat for the Democrats this November.
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-11: McCloskey (R) Endorses McNerney (D)
Posted by James L.Maverick former GOP Rep. Pete McCloskey took on his party's establishment -- and lost. But he's not done yet.McCloskey, 78, failed in his primary challenge to Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Calif., chairman of the powerful House Resources Committee. Now he's planning to urge Northern California voters who backed him to support Pombo's Democratic opponent, wind engineer Jerry McNerney, in November.
In June, McCloskey won 32 percent of the Republican primary vote to 62 percent for Pombo.
McNerney is "an honorable man that has not and will not seek to enrich himself and his family through his office," McCloskey said in an interview.
So how much of that 32% will swing to McNerney?
Posted at 01:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New National Journal House Rankings
Posted by James L.You can view the new montly rankings here. As an added bonus, and a reflection of what the National Journal believes to be a more competitive field, they've expanded the rankings to the top 50 competitive seats from 25.
Lots of big movers, including Chris Shays (R) vaulting into the top ten; TX-22 shooting up to #14 with the possibility of DeLay's return; NY-24 (an open seat formerly held by moderate Republican Sherwood Boehlert) jumping to #16 simply because of the absolute weakness of the Republican field in New York. Also, potentially vulnerable Democratic incuments like Mollohan (WV) and Melancon (LA) are ranked in safer positions. However, Republicans are gaining some strength in a few races, like NC-11 (something about Shuler not spending enough time campaigning--sounds surprising to me), WI-08, and VT-AL (I still highly doubt this seat will be picked up by Martha Rainville).
Overall, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but the big upside? There's only one incumbent Democrat in the top 20 competitive races: Leonard Boswell (IA-03), ranked at #12 this month (down from 10).
Posted at 12:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
IN-02: Poll Shows Chocola in Trouble
Posted by James L.From the South Bend Tribune (Research 2000, likely voters):
Joe Donnelly (D): 46
Chris Chocola (R-Inc.): 41
Undecided: 13
MoE: ±5%
Chocola was one of several incumbents who were facing challengers that skirted the edges of first-tier status before Moveon.org targeted them in a high-profile ad campaign. It looks like the campaign may have softened up Rep. Chocola enough so that Joe Donnelly is in an unusually good position at this point in the cycle.
Also of note is the generally sour mood in Indiana against Republicans in general, including several policies pushed forward by Gov. Mitch Daniels (R):
[Pollster Delair Ali] said he was also surprised at the number of people who brought up the Toll Road (7 percent) and time zone change (5 percent) as campaign issues.“To me, it sounds like people are ticked off at Republicans in general,” Ali said.
It now looks like there are three ripe pick-up opportunities in Indiana, with Donnelly's race in IN-02 joining Brad Ellsworth's in IN-08 and Baron Hill's in IN-09.
Update: Democratic pollsters Cooper and Secrest had Donnelly up by ten points a few weeks ago. However, since that was commissioned by Democrats, my inclination is to view this Research 2000 poll as the more likely snapshot of the race. But make that the second consecutive poll showing Count Chocola in perilous territory--not good news for Indiana Republicans.
Posted at 11:03 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Indiana | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Hodes, Sestak Are Leaders in Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness
Posted by DavidNYCTaking a break from bar study here, as you might have guessed. CQ has helpfully put together a list of the top fifty House challengers (PDF) in terms of cash-on-hand. (The list does not include open seats.) I was curious to know how competitive each challenger actually is, though: If you've got $500K, that's all well-and-good - but your opponent has $2M, then you've got a lot of ground to make up. So I plugged in incumbent CoH totals and divided challenger CoH by incumbent CoH to arrive at a "competitiveness" percentage (listed in the far right-hand column). Here are how the top ten challengers shake out:
| Rank | State | District | Chal. | Party | CoH | Inc. | Party | CoH | Chal. %age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. | 8 | Ellsworth | D | $676,475 | Hostettler | R | $195,146 | 347% |
| 2 | N.C. | 11 | Shuler | D | $668,745 | Taylor | R | $237,924 | 281% |
| 3 | Wyo. | AL | Trauner | D | $234,785 | Cubin | R | $217,871 | 108% |
| 4 | Pa. | 6 | Murphy | D | $1,402,793 | Gerlach | R | $1,302,975 | 108% |
| 5 | N.H. | 2 | Hodes | D | $442,888 | Bass | R | $453,449 | 98% |
| 6 | Conn. | 4 | Farrell | D | $1,376,139 | Shays | R | $1,507,565 | 91% |
| 7 | N.C. | 13 | Robinson | R | $466,768 | Miller | D | $540,736 | 86% |
| 8 | Pa. | 7 | Sestak | D | $993,746 | Weldon | R | $1,152,012 | 86% |
| 9 | Ind. | 9 | Hill | D | $973,305 | Sodrel | R | $1,138,911 | 85% |
| 10 | Conn. | 2 | Courtney | D | $988,430 | Simmons | R | $1,283,416 | 77% |
As you can see, two netroots candidates occupy top spots on the list: Paul Hodes at #5, and Joe Sestak at #8. Not too shabby, especially considering that neither Hodes nor Sestak have held political office before. As far as the Democrats on this list go, this group at the top will of necessity be among the most competitive challengers this campaign season.
You can find the rest of the top fifty below the fold.
| Rank | State | District | Chal. | Party | CoH | Inc. | Party | CoH | Chal. %age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Iowa | 3 | Lamberti | R | $820,105 | Boswell | D | $1,093,465 | 75% |
| 12 | N.Y. | 20 | Gillibrand | D | $754,333 | Sweeney | R | $1,008,506 | 75% |
| 13 | Neb. | 1 | Moul | D | $369,716 | Fortenberry | R | $496,449 | 74% |
| 14 | Va. | 2 | Kellam | D | $517,210 | Drake | R | $708,487 | 73% |
| 15 | Va. | 10 | Feder | D | $461,247 | Wolf | R | $636,089 | 73% |
| 16 | Fla. | 22 | Klein | D | $2,132,126 | Shaw | R | $3,036,936 | 70% |
| 17 | Wash. | 8 | Burner | D | $769,822 | Reichert | R | $1,111,841 | 69% |
| 18 | Ga. | 8 | Collins | R | $793,234 | Marshall | D | $1,206,784 | 66% |
| 19 | Ore. | 4 | Feldkamp | R | $240,170 | DeFazio | D | $367,754 | 65% |
| 20 | Ariz. | 5 | Mitchell | D | $666,476 | Hayworth | R | $1,049,710 | 63% |
| 21 | Pa. | 10 | Carney | D | $301,245 | Sherwood | R | $479,134 | 63% |
| 22 | N.M. | 1 | Madrid | D | $1,258,845 | Wilson | R | $2,051,557 | 61% |
| 23 | La. | 3 | Romero | R | $958,990 | Melancon | D | $1,651,630 | 58% |
| 24 | Ohio | 1 | Cranley | D | $775,757 | Chabot | R | $1,381,770 | 56% |
| 25 | Ga. | 12 | Burns | R | $733,393 | Barrow | D | $1,338,950 | 55% |
| 26 | S.C. | 5 | Norman | R | $733,600 | Spratt | D | $1,535,307 | 48% |
| 27 | Ariz. | 1 | Simon | D | $381,882 | Renzi | R | $804,654 | 47% |
| 28 | W.V. | 1 | Wakim | R | $318,306 | Mollohan | D | $674,593 | 47% |
| 29 | Pa. | 8 | Murphy | D | $495,236 | Fitzpatrick | R | $1,132,980 | 44% |
| 30 | Wash. | 2 | Roulstone | R | $383,994 | Larsen | D | $886,431 | 43% |
| 31 | N.J. | 7 | Stender | D | $650,118 | Ferguson | R | $1,514,084 | 43% |
| 32 | Ohio | 15 | Kilroy | D | $775,469 | Pryce | R | $1,818,555 | 43% |
| 33 | Ky. | 4 | Lucas | D | $609,801 | Davis | R | $1,555,077 | 39% |
| 34 | Conn. | 5 | Murphy | D | $1,021,569 | Johnson | R | $2,621,000 | 39% |
| 35 | Nev. | 3 | Hafen | D | $600,587 | Porter | R | $1,609,758 | 37% |
| 36 | Colo. | 4 | Paccione | D | $381,685 | Musgrave | R | $1,083,421 | 35% |
| 37 | Ky. | 2 | Weaver | D | $335,147 | Lewis | R | $1,022,690 | 33% |
| 38 | Minn. | 1 | Walz | D | $252,829 | Gutknecht | R | $826,391 | 31% |
| 39 | Colo. | 3 | Tipton | R | $342,905 | Salazar | D | $1,177,634 | 29% |
| 40 | Tex. | 17 | Taylor | R | $454,453 | Edwards | D | $1,576,787 | 29% |
| 41 | N.Y. | 19 | Aydelott | D | $344,344 | Kelly | R | $1,207,757 | 29% |
| 42 | Ind. | 2 | Donnelly | D | $435,215 | Chocola | R | $1,554,483 | 28% |
| 43 | Ill. | 10 | Seals | D | $507,975 | Kirk | R | $1,859,582 | 27% |
| 44 | Ill. | 11 | Pavich | D | $276,828 | Weller | R | $1,028,626 | 27% |
| 45 | Ky. | 3 | Yarmuth | D | $417,929 | Northup | R | $1,854,187 | 23% |
| 46 | Ill. | 8 | McSweeney | R | $473,615 | Bean | D | $2,175,474 | 22% |
| 47 | Mich. | 8 | Marcinkowski | D | $225,733 | Rogers | R | $1,148,665 | 20% |
| 48 | Fla. | 16 | Mahoney | D | $567,634 | Foley | R | $2,913,304 | 19% |
| 49 | N.Y. | 19 | Hall | D | $220,835 | Kelly | R | $1,207,757 | 18% |
| 50 | Ohio | 12 | Shamansky | D | $262,131 | Tiberi | R | $1,726,991 | 15% |
Posted at 04:46 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
GA-04: Cynthia McKinney Losing Ground in Primary; Heading to a Run-off?
Posted by James L.Before we get to that, lemme just rattle off the list of tonight's events:
1. With 50% of the precincts reporting, Ralph Reed is getting his ass kicked in the GA GOP Lt.-Gov. primary by a 56-44 margin. I guess corruption can beat some unbeatable politicians, after all.
2. George Wallace, Jr. is also on the receiving end of ass-kickery, losing his primary bid for Alabama Lt.-Gov by a 55-45 margin to Luther Strange. It's still pretty awful that 45% of Alabama Republican primary voters could vote for GW, Jr, though.
3. Like the polls predicted, Mark Taylor is beating out Cathy Cox in Georgia's Democratic gubernatorial primary, by a 51-44 margin with 54% of precincts reporting.
More interestingly, though, is the primary results of GA-04, with 28.74% 35.93% 59% 66% 80% of precincts reporting:
Hank Johnson (D):48.82% (5,435) 46.21% (8,894) 45.3% (15,445)45.4% (16,273)44.6% (19,904)
Cynthia McKinney (D-Inc.):42.37% (4,717) 45.32% (8,723) 46.7% (15,910)(46.0%) 16,49247.1% (21,027)
John Coyne (D):8.8% (980) 8.47% (1,631) 8.0% (2,738) 8.7% (3,105)8.3% (3,691)
I don't know much about Hank Johnson, other than the fact that he's a commissioner of a vote rich primary. If these results hold, this will be the second time that McKinney has been defeated in a primary; in 2002, she was ejected in favor of Denise Majette. I couldn't imagine Georgia's 4th giving her a third chance after this.
Update: With 36% of precincts reporting, McKinney is tightening the race big time.
Update II: Okay, with 59%, McKinney is taking the lead by 500 votes. Will it hold?
Update III: With 66%, it's tightening again. Interesting to note the slight spike in Coyne votes. I have a feeling we're picking up some of the whiter precincts in this update. Oh yeah, I should note that I'm getting these new numbers from the GA Secretary of State website. They seem to be updating faster than the AP, which is a first.
Update IV: Well, with 80% of precincts reporting, McKinney has gained a 1,100 vote lead. I'm pretty doubtful that Johnson can surpass that with only 20% of precincts to go.
Update V: As commenter Drew notes, Georgia requires 50%+1 for a candidate to win the nomination. We're likely heading towards a run-off. It's easy to say that "Johnson votes + Coyne votes = McKinney defeat", but it's never that simple in run-off elections. Just ask Ray Nagin.
Posted at 10:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Georgia | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-02: Jean Schmidt Has $17,500 For November
Posted by James L.Heh. This is pretty funny. I got an e-mail today pointing me toward Jean Schmidt's 2Q FEC filing. Evidently, ol' Jeanny had to unload a great deal of her warchest just to get under 48% of the vote in her spring primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen. McEwen fell just under 4,000 votes shy of ending Schmidt's glamorous, combat veteran-insulting half-term career in Congress. Of $1.46m raised, she's reporting $17,509 as of June 30. $17,509.
Let me repeat that, just in case your eyes glazed over: $17,509. Cash. On. Hand. (And let's not forget that $277,000 debt that her campaign has accumulated.)
A full two months after her primary campaign elapsed and she has $17,509 in the bank? Brutal.
Now, Schmidt's Democratic opponent, Dr. Victoria Wulsin, is not going to win this seat with the cash that she's got, either: $24,564. But at least she has the temporary bragging rights of holding 50% CoH advantage. (Heh.)
This could prove to be another fun race, especially when coupled with Wulsin's latest internal polling. I have no doubt that the Republican extremist base and PAC backbone will help Schmidt out again and retire her campaign debt for her, but at least she doesn't face the advantage of having a $1m+ warchest to swamp her challenger with on the airwaves this summer.
Posted at 12:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, July 14, 2006
NH-02: Hodes Pulls In $343K, Sets Local Record and Pulls Even With Bass!
Posted by DavidNYCJames is doing yeoman working tracking all the fundraising numbers as they come in. But I had to take a quick break from studying to pass along SSP favorite Paul Hodes' official fundraising figures:
Paul Hodes Fundraising Numbers2Q Raised: $343K
2Q Cash-on-Hand: $443K
Those are some pretty rock-solid nums. Hodes more than doubled his 1Q numbers, by a fat margin. It also brings his cycle-to-date total to over $604K. What's more, Hodes has already raised more from New Hampshirites than anyone else in NH-02 ever has - including Charlie Bass. Over half of Hodes' contributitions - $325K - have been from local sources, and we're still four months away from election day. Bass never even managed $300K from New Hampshire residents during an entire election period. Charlie's gonna have to rely heavily on PAC money to bail him out.
Hodes' burn rate looks pretty good, too. By my calculations, the campaign spent $132K this past quarter. (They ended the first quarter with $232K CoH, and raised $343K this quarter. That totals $575K. Subtract the current CoH - $443K - from that and you can see how much they spent.) Considering that the campaign's CoH went up $211K, that sounds pretty frugal to me. Hopefully these numbers will be enough to get Hodes added to the DCCC's Red-to-Blue list posthaste.
UPDATE (James L.): Wow. Check out Bass' 2Q numbers: only $200k raised and $450k CoH. Hodes is pulling even!
Posted at 01:33 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, July 13, 2006
DCCC Announces the Second Batch of "Red to Blue" Candidates
Posted by James L.Red to Blue, a DCCC-run program that aids promising challengers in key races through fundraising and communications support, has announced its second round of candidates:
Mike Arcuri (NY-24)
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Chris Carney (PA-10)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Phil Kellam (VA-02)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Linda Stender (NJ-07)
Mike Weaver (KY-02)
Patty Wetterling (MN-06)
Charlie Wilson (OH-06)
All fairly solid choices, but the inclusion of Charlie Wilson, who's running for Ted Strickland's (D) open seat, is somewhat eyebrow-raising. Given Wilson's ho-hum 2Q numbers ($275k raised, $235k CoH), perhaps the DCCC felt they needed to do whatever it takes to shore up his fundraising, even if it means adding him to a program that was set up to turn red seats blue.
Update: My source for Wilson's numbers was off by a considerable margin. His 2Q numbers were somewhate better: $397k raised and $290 CoH. (Consider that Wilson had to drop a lot of coin for his successful write-in campaign to make the ballot.) He'll still need to boost his cash numbers significantly, but I'm feeling a bit better about his campaign now.
Posted at 02:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
OH-02: This One's Got a Pulse, Doctor
Posted by James L.First off, if you've read my latest post on the most recent batch of internal polls from Ohio, you'd know that I'm fairly nonplussed by campaign-commissioned polls. That said, if this poll is anywhere near the truth, I think I may be able to renew my faith in humanity (likely voters):
Victoria Wulsin (D): 44
Jean Schmidt (R): 44
Undecided: 11
Who knows, maybe even a blood red district can't stomach a congresswoman who became the laughingstock of Saturday Night Live. Other pertinent details from the poll: Schmidt has a 33-53% approval/disapproval rating, and only 30% of the respondents say they will vote for her; 34% say they will definitely cast their ballots for someone else. Wulsin also leads among independents by a 52-36 margin. The maddening thing, of course, is the missing margin of error. What is it? 3? 6? 12? It's a pretty key piece of information that's missing from Wulsin's press release.
Still, I'm glad to see numbers like these for the Wulsin campaign. She may not be Paul Hackett, who was one of the most unique candidates I've ever seen in politics, but her advocacy for public health both home and abroad (where she has assisted HIV prevention initiatives for USAID in Africa), is pretty remarkable and respectable herself. I met Wulsin's former campaign manager (from her primary campaign with Hackett) last year after the dust settled on the special election, and he left me with a very good impression of Vic and her values. She would be an excellent voice in Congress, and I hope that these numbers give her campaign a lift in the months ahead.
UPDATE: Okay, I found the MoE here: ±4.9%. High, but not awful.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
OH-18: A Tale of Two Polls
Posted by James L.So yesterday, we got an internal poll done by Cooper & Secrest (D) for the Zack Space campaign, that seemed just too good to be true. Space, as you may know, is taking on Jack Abramoff's snuggle buddy, Rep. Bob Ney. Here's the poll, just in case you missed it (likely voters):
Zack Space (D): 46
Bob Ney (R-Inc.): 35
Undecided: 19
MoE: ±4.4
When I saw a poll that showed Space, a guy with minimal name recognition, already taking nearly half the vote in a district that voted for Bush by 14 points, I was skeptical, to say the least. And while the poll may be off, it's turns out that it's probably not way off. Ney's commissioned an internal poll of his own by GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. The result? A slim Ney lead over Space by 45 to 41 percentage points. As the Hotline notes, that's a 15 point difference between the two polls (+11 to -4 for Space). The truth probably lies somewhere between the two, but even if it's a worst case scenario, a four point lead for Ney, a six-term incumbent in a ripe red district, isn't exactly good news, either.
Of course, if Ney is indicted and the state Republicans manage to replace him on the ballot with someone a lot ethically cleaner, this discussion is irrelevant...
Update: As Cillizza notes, Ney's poll has a trendline: the poll "marks a considerable improvement from January when Ney trailed Space 49 percent to 37 percent 'shortly after Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty and the story was all over the news,' according to a memo penned by Bolger and released this morning."
Posted at 08:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, July 10, 2006
PA-07: Update on Republican Push Polling
Posted by James L.A few weeks ago, DavidNYC asked if anyone had any information on an alleged nasty push poll against Joe Sestak, a retired Navy vice-admiral running against crazy Curt Weldon. Well, it now looks like those rumors are true. From the Philadelphia Inquirer:
It's going to be a long campaign season in the Seventh Congressional District, judging by opening telephone salvos against U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon and his Democratic opponent, Joe Sestak.Dennis Berry of West Chester said that Venture Data L.L.C., a Salt Lake City polling company, asked him a series of negatively framed questions about Sestak, including one he described as outlandish. Berry said he was asked if he would be more or less likely to vote for Sestak if he knew Sestak "had an opportunity to capture Osama bin Laden in Sudan and passed."
Sestak, a retired Navy vice admiral, served as a National Security Council official in the Clinton White House. He said he had heard about the phone calls, but not the details of the message - and nothing about bin Laden.
Venture Data didn't return phone calls. Michael Puppio, Weldon's campaign manager, said that the polling company was not working for the Weldon campaign.
On the other side, Working America, an AFL-CIO affiliate, used a robot dialer to urge Seventh District voters to call Weldon's district office and ask the congressman why he voted against an increase in the minimum wage. Weldon has said that the call distorted his record on the minimum wage.
As an aside, notice how the Inquirer seems to take the narrative that a push poll designed to suggest that Admiral Sestak brushed off an opportunity to capture Bin Laden is 'tit-for-tat' with a robocall saying that Weldon voted against the minimum wage. As if one "salvo" is anywhere near on the same level as the other.
Curt Weldon's history of complete looniness is well-documented. It shouldn't come as a surprise that his Republican friends are already cooking up ways to slime Admiral Sestak while Weldon is off planning his next opportunity to play dress-up as Indiana Jones and find his mythical WMDs in the Iraqi desert.
Posted at 03:19 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, July 06, 2006
TX-22: No Escape For Tom DeLay
Posted by James L.Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! -- The Godfather Part III
From the Houston Chronicle:
A federal judge ruled today that Republicans cannot replace former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay on the ballot for the 22nd Congressional District race.U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, a Republican appointee, ruled that DeLay must appear on the Nov. 7 ballot as the GOP nominee for the congressional seat that DeLay abandoned last month. Sparks ruling was confirmed by Texas Democratic Party spokeswoman Amber Moon.
Wow. What was widely seen as a legal stall tactic to temporarily block the TX GOP from replacing Tom DeLay with a less radioactive candidate on the ballot this November has turned out to be the real deal. We'll have to wait and see what the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has to say about this, but a lot of damage is done already: if DeLay comes back to campaign in TX-22 (which he recently murmured that he's willing to do), not only will he have to reassemble his field and campaign team, but he'll also face an awfully awkward homecoming from his temporary escape to Virginia. What does it say to voters in his district when only a court order is enough to get him to step back into the state of Texas? It's not exactly flattering, to say the least.
Even if this decision is overturned by the appeals process, the Republicans will have lost months of valuable campaign time--time that genuine nice guy and proud Texan Nick Lampson won't waste.
Posted at 12:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 29, 2006
TX-22: Will Lampson Face ANY Opposition in November?
Posted by James L.That's the question on our minds after hearing that former Republican Representative and Independent candidate Steve Stockman apparently failed to submit the 500 valid signatures required by Texas law to have his name placed on the November ballot:
Former GOP Congressman Steve Stockman (Independent) failed to qualify for the ballot in the CD-22 race. The Secretary of State determined petitions submitted by Stockman failed to produce the 500 valid signatures required by state law. "Someone who couldn't find 500 people in a [in a district of 600,000 residents] probably wasn't going to have much of an impact," joked a spokesman for former Congressman Nick Lampson (D). In related news, US District Court Judge Sam Sparks has yet to rule whether or not the Republicans will be allowed to replace resigned Congressman Tom DeLay on the ballot. If the court finds DeLay intentionally "withdrew" from the contest, the GOP will not be allowed to replace him -- and then only Lampson and the Libertarian nominee will appear on the November ballot. If DeLay, however, was found to have been "disqualified" because of his move to Virginia, the GOP will be allowed to name a new replacement nominee. Although the Judge did not yet rule, during this week's hearing he openly remarked that DeLay apparently "withdrew" from the race. Stay tuned.
Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming.
However, Stockman's disqualification raises the risks considerably for Lampson--if the GOP is able to field a replacement candidate for DeLay, the conservative vote won't be as fractured without a Stockman candidacy. Depending on Judge Sparks' decision, this could either be a dream come true for Lampson, or a nightmare. We'll find out next week. (Hat tip to Christopher Walker.)
Update: Oh, right; I neglected to mention that Lampson could be facing DeLay again. The way I see it, there are three possibilities here: Lampson could face DeLay again, Lampson could face no serious opposition, or Lampson could face the TX GOP's replacement candidate. Obviously, either of the first two options are vastly preferable.
Posted at 03:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Late Night Poll Round-up: MA-Gov, VA-Sen, GA-Gov, Pew and Gallup
Posted by James L.MA-Gov: Buzz candidate and former Clinton Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Deval Patrick is now pulling significantly ahead of Massachusetts Attorney General Tom Reilly in the Democratic primary for Governor, while businessman Chris Gabrieli (who has pumped $2.5 million into a hefty TV ad campaign) is threatening to leave Reilly in third place if this trend continues (likely voters, May in parens).
Deval Patrick (D): 31 (20)
Tom Reilly (D): 25 (35)
Chris Gabrieli (D): 22 (15)
MoE: ±4%
Obviously a big part of Patrick's bounce has to do with snagging the MA Democratic Party endorsement at the recent state convention, but Patrick is also pushing himself as a fresh face in a state full of tired, entrenched incumbents. In a hypothetical general election match-up, however, all three candidates lead Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey by wide margins.
Massachusetts has been reluctant to give the Democrats full control of every lever of power in the state, hence the lack of a Democrat in the Governor's mansion since Dukakis. But after seeing Romney veto bills in favor of embryonic stem cell research and emergency contraception (both vetoes were overridden by the MA legislature) in order to prove his conservative cred for a possible '08 White House bid, it seems like the good people of Massachusetts are tired of their Governors playing petty political games with the veto button. It will be a pleasure to watch Deval Patrick's campaign in the weeks and months ahead.
VA-Sen (SUSA, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Webb (D): 37
George Felix Allen, Jr. (R): 56
Gail Parker (I): 2
MoE: ±4.3%
It's not too surprising, given that Webb just came off a nasty primary that he won by just a few points, and that Allen has already been saturating tthe airwaves with TV ads. Given that Webb has a lot of ground to cover, including introducing himself via TV and radio (his campaign only aired a few radio spots during the final days of the primary due to funding constraints), there's clearly potential for him to make this race a lot tighter, given the proper funding.
GA-Gov: Oh right, there's a race here. (Strategic Vision [R], likely voters, May in parens)
Mark Taylor (D): 44 (39)
Sonny Perdue (R-Inc.): 50 (51)Cathy Cox (D): 40 (42)
Sonny Perdue (R-Inc.): 53 (50)
MoE: ±3%
Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, and I'm not terribly comfortable in treating their work on the same par as SUSA or Gallup. Still, as far as the Georgia Governor's race is concerned, the pickin's is slim. The same poll shows Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor edging Secretary of State Cathy Cox by 46-42, a significant swing from last month's 42-47 margin in Cox's favor. I'm not sure why Taylor has caught a break this month, as I have not been following this race closely, but even the locals are scratching their heads.
Finally, two new polls by Gallup and Pew seem to contradict certain theories bouncing around the blogosphere that Democrats are weary and dispirited, and won't turn up at the polls this November.
First, from Gallup:
Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. They are more inclined to deliver significant gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans won control of the House and Senate in 1994.Those surveyed are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gasoline prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.
President Bush looms as a significant drag: 40% of Americans say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. A fifth say they are more likely.
[...]
• Democrats are particularly engaged: 56% say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual," the highest level recorded since the question was first asked in 1994. Among Republicans, 43% say they are more enthusiastic than usual.
• Americans are increasingly likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Including those who "lean" to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats; 38%, Republicans. That's the biggest edge for Democrats since 1998. By 54%-38%, the registered voters surveyed say they'd vote for a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one if the election were held today.
Et cetera. And this comes from a Democratic base that STILL isn't particularly enamored with congressional Democrats.
And, from Pew Research, more of the same:
With less than five months to go before Election Day, Democrats hold two distinct advantages in the midterm campaign that they have not enjoyed for some time. First, Americans continue to say they favor the Democratic candidate in their district, by a 51% to 39% margin. Second, the level of enthusiasm about voting among Democrats is unusually high, and is atypically low among Republicans. In fact, Democrats now hold a voter enthusiasm advantage that is the mirror image of the GOP's edge in voter zeal leading up to the 1994 midterm election. [emphasis added][...]
The heightened Democratic enthusiasm is particularly notable among liberal Democrats, 53% of whom are more interested in voting this year than usual. The partisan gap in enthusiasm is even visible among independents - those who lean Democratic are considerably more eager to vote than those who lean Republican. Overall, 47% of voters who plan to vote Democratic this fall say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 30% of voters who plan to vote Republican.
The higher level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters is linked to two underlying attitudes: anger at the president and optimism about Democrats chances in the fall. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of those who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district think of their vote this fall as a vote against George W. Bush. These anti-Bush voters are significantly more motivated to vote - 52% say they are more eager to vote this year than usual, compared with 39% among those who say Bush is not a factor in their vote.
There's tons of juicy data and analysis to pore over in both the Gallup and Pew studies. But I'm going to leave the rest up to you night owls.
Posted at 01:51 AM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Georgia, Massachusetts, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
NH-02: Charlie Bass by the Numbers
Posted by DavidNYCIf you've ever clicked over to his website, you might know that, in addition to being a community activist and former prosecutor, Paul Hodes is also an accomplished musician. What I'm sure you didn't know is that Charlie Bass is also a performer. In fact, he's one of the best B-actors the GOP has ever had - right up alongside Arnie and Ronnie. And like his fellow Republican thespians, Bass plays the same role, over and over and over. His recurring bit? That old evergreen, the GOP "moderate."
Charlie takes every opportunity to tell voters at home what a moderate he is. Just take a look here or here or here or here or here... I think you get the picture. Bass likes to ham it up real good. But how can you tell that this is nothing more than a facade, that Bass wears the term "moderate" like a cheap costume?
It's all in the numbers, and the numbers don't lie. Congressional Quarterly has been tracking "party unity" scores since time immemorial. They look at votes where a majority of Republicans oppose a majority of Democrats, and then they track how each member of Congress voted in those votes. Divide the latter number by the former and you have a party unity score, expressed as a percentage. (Though this data is mostly behind CQ's subscription firewall, you can see a PDF of the 2004 numbers here.) And here's Charlie Bass's resume for the last six years:
Charlie Bass's Party Unity Scores2005: 87%
2004: 85%
2003: 91%
2002: 85%
2001: 85%
2000: 85%
These are not the voting habits of a "moderate" - they're the patterns of a true believer, a kool-aid drinker, a dedicated GOP team player. But evidently, in Charlie's worldview, being a "moderate" means you vote with Tom DeLay, Denny Hastert and Roy Blunt at least 85% of the time, if not more often. This includes votes for the Paris Hilton Tax Relief Act (aka estate tax repeal), the odious bankruptcy bill, and, for good measure, the budget bill which cut student loans by $13 billion.
Charlie Bass is a vaudeville phony. You know it, I know it, and much of blogland knows it. But let's not kid ourselves: We're a bunch of political junkie nerds. I understand why ordinary New Hampshirites might not know the truth about Bass - it's because he's been misleading them for over a decade. But Bass can't hide from the truth for much longer. And now priority number one for the Hodes campaign is to expose him. It's gonna come as a double-whammy for Bass: He'll be revealed as both an extremist and a phony all at the same time.
Oh, so sorry, Charlie!
Posted at 11:10 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Tomfoolery Backfires?
Posted by James L.You've got to hand it to Tom DeLay. Facing abysmal chances in the November election against former Rep. Nick Lampson, DeLay took the opportunity to fall on his own sword by slinking off to Virginia in an attempt to give the TX GOP another window to nominate someone a little less, oh, you know, indicted. Even in (political) death, he never ceased to miss a chance to sock a Democrat in the stomach. You've got to give him that, at least.
Given that a party cannot nominate a new candidate after a primary election in Texas, DeLay chose a legal loophole: get the hell out of dodge so that he would be ineligible to run for Congress in Texas, rather than withdrawing his candidacy (which would have spelled the end for the Republican line on the TX-22 ballot). Texas Dems didn't take this sitting down, and filed a lawsuit to block the local GOP from scrubbing DeLay's name from the ballot. The conventional wisdom was that this was a stall tactic designed to irritate the local Republican cabal and prevent them from naming a challenger and raising funds for a few more precious weeks. However, based on the commentary of U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, presiding over the case, it looks like there's a strong chance that DeLay may be forced to keep his name on the ballot (or withdraw it at his discretion). From the Houston Chronicle:
A federal judge hearing a ballot dispute Monday involving former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay said he thinks that DeLay withdrew from the November election, indicating potential trouble for Republicans who want to name a replacement candidate."He is not going to participate in the election and he withdrew," said U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, who did not issue an official ruling after a daylong trial regarding DeLay's status as the GOP nominee for the 22nd Congressional District.
Jim Bopp, a lawyer for the Republican Party of Texas, disagreed, telling Sparks "there's been no withdrawal." Bopp said that instead, DeLay moved to Virginia, making him ineligible and triggering a state law that allows the party to select a new nominee.
Sparks also said that if political parties are allowed to replace primary election winners with more popular candidates, "the abuse would be incredible."
"It can happen in every race in this state for every office," Sparks said. The Republican judge said a ruling could come as early as next week.
From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
In his comments to lawyers, Sparks questioned whether a ruling for the Republicans might set a precedent allowing weakened candidates from both parties taking up short-term residency in other states so that a more formidable campaigner could be installed late in the game.[...]
Sparks said he would review the histories of any similar cases and closely study the language in the Constitution before handing down his ruling. But he also said there was little doubt that DeLay had intended to withdraw from the race and that GOP leaders were hoping for a stronger candidate in the fall.
"Sometimes, you better watch out what you ask for," he told the GOP lawyer.
Sparks doesn't seem to be buying the spin that DeLay didn't withdraw. This could turn out to be a colossal embarrassment for national and state Republicans, and would have our homeboy, Nick Lampson, sitting mighty pretty.
(Hat-tip to Jesselee.)
Posted at 12:49 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Tuesday Poll Round-Up: RI-Sen, RI-Gov, TX-Gov, TX-21
Posted by James L.Lots of polls lately to share. First off, there's some good news from Rhode Island, where Democrats are gaining momentum:
RI-Sen (Brown Univesity Poll, registered voters, February in parens):
Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 38 (35)
Lincoln Chafee (R-Inc.): 37 (40)
Undecided/Decline to answer: 25 (26)
MoE: ±3.5%Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 55 (44)
Steve Laffey (R): 25 (29)
Undecided: 20 (27)
MoE: ±3.5%
RI-Gov (Brown, Feb. in parens):
Charles Fogarty (D): 39 (35)
Don Carcieri (R-Inc.): 44 (46)
MoE: ±3.5%
The same poll shows President Bush with a dismal 20% approval rating, and a mediocre 51% for Senator Chafee. Whitehouse is really making a race of this one, and don't believe any spin you may hear that this is an unwinnable race if Laffey doesn't knock off Chafee in the Republican primary.
And some noise from Texas:
TX-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, May in parens):
Chris Bell (D): 20 (18)
Rick Perry (R-Inc.): 35 (41)
Kinky Friedman (I): 21 (16)
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I): 19 (20)
MoE: ±4.2%
Perry is clearly weak, but this is just such a clusterfuck of a race. Troublingly, Chris Bell is only getting 44% of the Democratic vote and losing broad swaths of white liberals to Kinky Friedman's quirky indie bid. I understand the position of a Texas Democrat who's reluctant to rally around the Bell campaign after seeing hopeless defeat after defeat at the statewide level for a decade, but with the field this fractured, a consolidated Democratic base could be a threat to Perry.
TX-21: The John Courage campaign writes in to share some weak numbers on Congressman Lamar Smith (one of Tom DeLay's biggest allies in Texas):
In a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of 500 likely general election voters June 18-21, 2006, only 31% said that they would vote to re-elect Lamar Smith. (MoE +-4.4%)This is an anemic number for an incumbent, as that number should on average be closer to 45-55%. The voters want change, and we've got a man of the people that is a teacher and a veteran who wants to be their representative.
Smith has a weak 49% personal favorability rating in this lean Republican district, and there's clearly room for Courage to mount a vigorous campaign against him.
Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, Rhode Island, Texas | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, June 26, 2006
NH-02: Paul Hodes, Netroots Candidate
Posted by DavidNYCI'm very pleased to announce that Paul Hodes, running for Congress in New Hampshire's second Congressional District, is one of four new netroots candidates. As you may recall, MyDD, DailyKos and the Swing State Project all solicited nominations for the netroots page. Today, Markos, Chris Bowers, Matt Stoller and I are each introducing one of the candidates. Chris has already written on Jerry McNerny (CA-11), and Markos has covered Jim Webb (VA-Sen). Matt will soon introduce Linda Stender (NJ-07).
Of course, Paul Hodes needs little introduction to many readers of this site, but I always enjoy taking the opportunity to discuss the candidacies of people I support. If you look back at the criteria we outlined for ideal netroots candidates, you'll see that the Hodes campaign fits perfectly into two key areas: NH-02 is a Dem-leaning district and the seat is a key part of the "Northeast Strategy."
On that first point: In 2000, Al Gore carried the district by a razor-thin margin, 48-47. Four years later, however, Bush remained flat while John Kerry racked up a 52-47 win. Meanwhile, the state as a whole has also gotten bluer: It was the only state to go for Bush in 2000 that switched to Kerry in 2004. It was one of only 18 states (including DC) where the Dem margin increased in 2004, and NH's 3% improvement makes it the eighth-best improvement overall. Among swing states, only Colorado and Oregon showed bigger trends in favor of the Democratic Party.
And speaking of trends, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time in the Northeast. In 1994, as you know, Dems lost a lot of seats in the South - seats where locals had been splitting their vote since Richard Nixon's heyday. Newt Gingrich came along and started convincing folks they should instead vote a straight ticket. The GOP was successful in turning a lot of Dixiecrats out of office, but now it's our turn to make a dying breed of Republicans extinct: the Northeastern "moderates."
I put that word "moderate" in quotes, as I often do, because these alleged centrist Republicans talk a moderate game at home, but go back to Washington, DC and vote for Tom DeLay and Bill Frist to run the show. And while they might occasionally buck the establishment when given permission (a practice known as "catch-and-release"), they vote for George Bush's radical agenda almost every time. These Republicans enable the far right, and it's well past time to stop their bamboozlement.
Fortunately for us, the GOP has given us a number of juicy targets this year. We have competitive races in Dem-leaning, but GOP-held, seats in PA, NJ, NY, CT, and, of course, NH. Charlie Bass, the incumbent in NH-02, is increasingly out-of-step with his district. Appropriately enough for a guy named Bass, he survives thanks largely to the occasional "catch-and-release" reprieves that party elders grant him. But it's up to us to make sure that voters in New Hampshire learn about the real Charlie Bass. Once they do, he won't last long.
And Bass is someone we can definitely get to. He's a lazy fundraiser, and his poll numbers are barely treading water. Paul Hodes, meanwhile, has the energy and the experience to expose Bass and to beat him. But Paul's not there yet - he needs our help.
One of the suggested netroots criteria was that a race not yet be considered "top-tier." A compilation of House race rankings by pro prognosticators puts NH-02 at thirty-third overall among GOP-held seats, just on the periphery of the most-watched races. Hodes has attracted notice from the DCCC, but he hasn't yet been placed on their "Red to Blue" list. We can help make that happen by ensuring that Hodes finishes out the fundraising quarter strong.
The second quarter ends this Friday, June 30th. If Hodes shows good numbers and a sizable warchest, big players who are currently sitting on the sidelines will change their minds. We in the netroots, of course, love a challenge, and it's in our nature to be "early adopters" of up-and-coming candidates. We may not be able to raise the same kind of money the big boys can, but we can definitely get the ball rolling. So, with the deadline approaching, please consider giving to Paul Hodes and the other netroots candidates. We can make a big difference here.
Posted at 08:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, June 25, 2006
WA-08: Reichert's Badge Isn't So Shiny, After All
Posted by James L.As you are probably well aware, there are more Netroots candidates than just Ned Lamont. One of the latest is Darcy Burner, who's taking on freshman Rep. David Reichart (R). To get a good sense of what Darcy is about, and why she stands a good chance in this district, I highly recommend you take a few minutes to read the excellent piece that the Seattle alternative weekly The Stranger did on her back in March.
The 8th District of Washington state has never elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives since it was created after the 1980 census. However, the district, just outside Seattle, has become more fertile territory for liberals and Democrats in recent years; Reichart only won this open seat by four points (51-47%) in 2004 against liberal radio host Dave Ross. As The Stranger notes:
Democrats need to wrestle 15 seats from Republicans in order to take back the House, and it's in places like the 8th District that they plan to do it. The district is a large and fast-changing area that encompasses suburban developments and rural farmlands, and covers the east side of Lake Washington as far north as Duvall and as far south as Mt. Rainier National Park. It has trended increasingly liberal in recent years, voting for Democratic candidates for president and Senate. On Tuesday, this increasingly liberal bent prompted state Representative Rodney Tom, who represents a part of the 8th District, to abandon the Republican party and declare himself a Democrat so that he could be more in line with his constituency. But since its creation in 1982, the 8th District has never sent a Democrat to the House.In 2004, when longtime Republican Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn retired from her seat in the 8th District, Dave Reichert, having gained national fame for capturing the Green River Killer as King County Sheriff, shrewdly parlayed his name recognition into a run for Dunn's seat. He won a narrow, 4-percentage-point victory [...] but that same year the ticket-splitting voters in the 8th District also picked Democrat John Kerry for president and helped send Democrat Patty Murray back to the Senate.
As was alluded to, Reichart had the edge in 2004 because, on paper, his resume was impeccable: as Sheriff of King County--by far the most populated of the 8th's three counties--he helped track down the Green River Killer, one of the most notorious and prolific serial killers in U.S. history. However, according to Roll Call (subscription only), there have been more and more noises as of late of a big bowl of administrative and ethical problems in the King County police force that were left ignored or tolerated due to either incompetence or indifference on Reichart's part. The Stakeholder managed to snag a few excerpts from the article for the masses to see:
Freshman Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) earned his suburban Seattle seat two years ago by running a campaign centered on his storied tenure as King County sheriff.Now Democrats hope that revelations of corruption in the sheriff’s office will taint his reputation as an ideal law enforcement officer and cripple his re-election efforts.
Since last August, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has run a front-page news series about an array of problems in Reichert’s old fiefdom, ranging from abuse of power to officers hit with drug and domestic violence charges.
Josh Feit, news editor of the weekly Seattle newspaper The Stranger, calls the on- going revelations the “sleeping giant” of the campaign.
Reichert is not accused of any wrong- doing but some of the stories paint a portrait of an administrator unaware of questionable, and sometimes illegal, behavior by subordinates. The stories also examine whether Reichert let some bad cops retire with full pensions out of expediency rather than pursuing criminal charges.
“I think it creates a serious credibility problem because he’s shirking accountability for criminal activities that happened on his watch,” alleged Kelly Steele, spokesman for the state Democratic Party.
“Ultimately, in a broader sense, it’s the same problem with the Republican corruption in Washington D.C.,” Steele continued. “Reichert thinks that the rules don’t apply to himself and his friends.”
It seems that we've found the rare Republican that was corrupt even before coming under the influence of Tom DeLay and his cronies. I think the most interesting part of the article is this quote from an FBI agent who had the unfortunate experience of working with Sherriff Reichert:
“What’s this group doing down there?” the agent was quoted as asking. “Who’s in charge? “Where’s the accountability?”Last December the paper wrote: “A few weeks before that, two sheriff’s commanders also recommended [a deputy] be fired for breaking department rules. Instead, Reichert — then in the midst of a hot Congressional campaign — allowed [the officer] to quietly slip into retirement about two weeks later, records show.”
It seems that Reichart's biggest advantage--his record as King County Sheriff--is slowly being eroded as his Republican-style (ie. incompetent) administrative skills are being brought to light. For the record, I think turning this race into a referendum on Reichart's abilities as Sheriff is a risky move, but personally tying Reichart to general Republican incompetence will be a much easier sell given these allegations.
PS: Here's the money shot of Congressman Dave and one of his closest friends that you'll be seeing again and again in this race.
Posted at 08:44 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Washington | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 22, 2006
PA-07: ALERT: Sestak a Victim of Push-Polling?
Posted by DavidNYCPassing on an alert from the Joe Sestak campaign, for those who live in the district:
A supporter called in and said that he was just surveyed about the election, and was asked VERY negative slanted questions about Joe.If you get polled, please take notes, and ask who sponsored to poll. Get back to us with the info (info@sestakforcongress.com, or 610-891-8956). They must be nervous!
If enough people document such a poll in action, we can make these kind of tactics backfire.
And of course, if you somehow are able to actually RECORD such a phone call, you'd be a hero. I personally think the Internet makes it harder to get away with push polling like this because the response time is so fast. In the past, it might be days before anyone realized what was going on. Now, we can mobilize instantly - and we stand a better chance of catching the SOBs who are doing this.
So please, pass this along to anyone you know who might live in the district.
UPDATE: Uh, maybe you don't wanna try taping anything, actually. As several commenters point out, PA is one of the few states that prohibits recording phone calls without the consent of ALL parties. Hey, I'm busy studying New York law!
Posted at 09:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
DFA Grassroots All-Star Final Round
Posted by DavidNYCThe five finalists for DFA's Grassroots All-Star endorsement are:
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Nancy Skinner (MI-09)
Stephanie Studebaker (OH-03)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Phil Avillo (PA-19)
I am voting for Patrick Murphy, who is, as you know, also a Netroots Candidate.
UPDATE (James L.): Also be sure to check out Sen. Feingold's Progressive Patriots gubernatorial competition and round two of Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC "East and West" competition.
Posted at 06:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 08, 2006
CA-50: Another Look
Posted by James L.[UPDATE (David): As a courtesy to readers of the Swing State Project, Charlie Cook has graciously made Amy Walter's column freely available.]
Was Francine Busby's loss in CA-50 a sign of a Democratic base problem? We mulled over it a bit in my post-mortem, but the best summary of this lament came from Markos:
Well, it seems everything I've been saying for the last few months came to happen.1) Democrats are not motivated to turn out. Sure, Busby exceeded Kerry's 43 percent he got in the district in 2004, but not by much. She got 45.46%. If the "culture of corruption" message was enough to bring people out to vote Democratic, this would be the place to do it. This is Duke Cunningham territory, he of the million dollar mansions, yachts, and hookers. Regardless, district voters sent a lobbyist back to Washington to represent them.
2) 2006 will be a base election -- the party that wins is the party that gets more pf its partisans to the polls. Busby worked hard to win the independent vote. And like Kerry in 2004, she probably won it. But it does no good when the other side gets more of its voters out to the polls. And a milquetoast campaign that hides partisan divisions and stresses "competence" will not inspire our partisans to come out and vote. The Republicans, on the other hand, made sure to rile up their base. Busby helped with her unfortunate comments that were so easily twisted out of context by the right wing noise machine, but they'll do that to every single one of our candidates. [Emphasis added]
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report has another take:
But, as we had written from the very beginning, Busby could not win simply by getting her voters to the polls. The Democratic base in this heavily Republican district makes up just 44-45 percent of the vote. To win, she needed Republican voters to either stay home or to vote for one of the third party candidates. Busby even ran advertising encouraging conservative Republicans to support William Griffith.[...]
Pre-eminent congressional scholar Gary Jacobson of the University of California San Diego notes that Busby actually did better than simply win the Democratic vote. She also got a bigger share of independents. Busby got 55,587 votes in the special election, almost 10,000 more votes than were cast in the Democratic primary (45,868). The special election and the regular primary were held on the same day. Bilbray, meanwhile, took 60,319 votes in the run-off election, while 59,195 votes were cast in the Republican primary. "Without too great an inferential leap," writes Jacobson, "we could conclude that Bilbray got the Republicans, Busby got the Democrats and a disproportionate share of the rest--just not enough to win."
Furthermore, notes Jacobson, when looking at party registration figures, it is clear that Democrats were more energized than Republicans. Bilbray's vote, he notes, was 38.6 percent of the number of Republican registrants, Busby's was 52.7 percent of the number of Democratic registrants. Based on the primary election vote, he notes, Democratic turnout was 43.8 percent, while Republican turnout was 37.8 percent. [Emphasis added]
So, after all that hubbub about Bilbray supposedly capturing the hearts and minds of progressives, it turns out that base motivation wasn't the problem at all here. The problem was, simply, that there just weren't enough damn Democrats in the district to mobilize in the first place. Given the huge amount the NRCC spent on Bilbray, and the RNC's much-vaunted 72-hour GOTV field operation in the district (a sign of smart strategy, not desperation), the Busby campaign did a pretty good job to get our side to the polls. As Walters contends, Republican incumbents in tight races shouldn't greet the CA-50 results with a sigh of relief:
So what's the bottom line lesson here? While a loss would have been disastrous for the Republicans, a win does not suggest that they are going to have an easy time this fall. In more marginal districts with stronger Democratic candidates and/or weakened Republican candidates, the political environment is certainly enough of a factor to take a toll. It's clear that Bilbray was unable to get the "soft" Republican voters that have traditionally broken for Republicans in the past, but in this heavily Republican district, he could afford to lose these voters. Republican incumbents who sit in more marginal districts do not have that luxury. For them, even a two or three point dip in turn-out could be politically fatal.
Posted at 11:38 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (36) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Voting for DFA's Grassroots All-Star
Posted by DavidNYCDemocracy For America is conducting a vote to decide which House candidate should get their next endorsement. You can vote here. The full list of candidates:
Charles Brown (CA-04)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Russ Warner (CA-26)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Steve Sinton (GA-06)
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Dave Loebsack (IA-02)
Larry Grant (ID-01)
Jim Hansen (ID-02)
Dan Seals (IL-10)
John Pavich (IL-11)
David Gill (IL-15)
Nancy Skinner (MI-09)
Tony Trupiano (MI-11)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Coleen Rowley (MN-02)
Duane Burghard (MO-09)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Paul Hodes (NH-02)
Patricia Madrid (NM-01)
Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Stephanie Studebaker (OH-03)
Robin Weirauch (OH-05)
Betty Sutton (OH-13)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Chris Carney (PA-10)
Lois Herr (PA-16)
Phil Avillo (PA-19)
Dan Dodd (TX-03)
Will Pryor (TX-32)
Bryan Kennedy (WI-05)
Gary Trauner (WY-01)
I like this list because almost all of the candidates on it are not involved in top-tier races. I voted for Paul Hodes, but there are many, many good names here. Again, the voting link is here. Whom are you supporting?
UPDATE: DFA mistakenly included Russ Warner, who lost yesterday. He's been removed from the list.
Posted at 06:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (26) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50 Post-Mortem Open Thread
Posted by James L.So, what can we read from these results? In CA-50, depending on who you talk to, this was either a sign of great things to come, or another dismal failure by a Democratic campaign to mobilize the base. There are even those who postulate that the Republicans could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this November by putting a greater distance between themselves and Bush on immigration, like Bilbray did, as opposed to trademark Democratic caution and moderation on the issue. Wherever you look on the blogosphere, it seems that there's another spin on the issue.
There were lots of outside factors that prejudiced Busby's campaign at the polls yesterday--an off-putting, nasty Gubernatorial primary that likely did not help turn out many base voters in the district, the goofy 'papers' comment (quite a shock considering how disciplined and professional Busby has been as a messenger during this campaign)--but if we're going to be reading CA-50's tea leaves as a sign of things to come, I think we should all be a little more cautious of our expectations for this November. The GOP has thrown a huge monkey wrench in the form of Immigration into the Democrats' 2006 strategy, and it's unclear yet how the Democrats plan to manage the issue. Personal opinions aside--and I'm extremely liberal on the issue, so it's probably a good thing that I'm not in charge of Democratic policymaking--the Democrats better find a way not to end up on the wrong side of a voter backlash on immigration woes.
There's another take on this, though, and that's the Busby campaign's failure to fire up their base. I'm inclined to agree with this assessment--when I saw a plea by Busby on the DCCC blog on the 11th hour of race, saying that they needed 100 more volunteers to execute their ground game effectively, I knew that this was gonna be rough. If the Busby campaign was more effective at firing up the base, they would have had more than 300 volunteers for their election-day ground game and wouldn't have needed that last-minute plea.
Also frustrating was the continued Republican dominance in early voting. To be fair, the Busby campaign did a great job in narrowing the traditional gap between Democratic and Republican absentee votes, but why the heck do Republicans always come out on top? The Democratic machine from state-to-state and district-to-district is going to have to seriously overhaul their absentee voting strategy--or maybe even get one, in the first place.
So I turn the floor to our readers. What went wrong in CA-50? What lessons should we take from this? Or maybe you're of the opinion that this was a pretty decent result; afterall, the NRCC was forced to dump a cool $5 million into a ruby red district, while the DCCC only kissed $2.5 million goodbye.
Posted at 01:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Chris Bowers Is an Insomniac
Posted by James L.Alright, I'm heading to bed. Workdays that start at 8am tend to have this effect on me at midnight (fabulous Mountain Time). Until then, to fix your agonizing need for CA-50 updates and analysis, head on over to MyDD, where eternal nocturnal Chris Bowers is on a mission to see this through until the bitter end. Dude must be hooked up to an IV of caffeine.
UPDATE (DavidNYC): Okay. With 46.4% of the vote in, this is how I see things:
• If there is 40% turnout, Busby needs 55.22% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 49.26% to reach 47%• If there is 35% turnout, Busby needs 56.94% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 50.01% to reach 47%
• If there is 30% turnout, Busby needs 60.36% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 51.49% to reach 47%
I include the 47% figure because I think that's about the minimum total Busby could win with. No matter what, she needs to run well ahead of where she's run so far in order to pull this one off. I don't know what primary turnout is usually like in CA - anyone have any numbers?
Anyhow, don't forget that no matter what the outcome, there will still be a Busby-Bilbray rematch in November, and Francine will still need our help.
Posted at 01:56 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
California Results Open Thread
Posted by RBHCA-GOV: 4.3% 13% 35.2% of precincts reporting
Phil Angelides (D):217,622 (48.7%) 353,474 (47.2%)523,260 (47.5%)
Steve Westly (D):191,764 (43%) 327,723 (43.8%)479,833 (43.6%)
CA-50 (To fill the unexpired term): 11% 35.2% reporting
Francine Busby (D):17,329 (43%)27,383 (44.4%)
Brian Bilbray (R):20,448 (50%)30,683 (49.8%)
All of the U.S. Congress Primaries in California
CA-50 (GOP Primary for the November election): 11.4% 35.6% of precincts reporting
Brian Bilbray (R):11,071 (52.9%)16,712 (54.6%)
Eric Roach (R):3,347 (16%)4,486 (14.6%)
CA-04, 11.5% 38.4% 75.3% of Precincts reporting:
John Doolittle (R):14,054 (63.2%) 25,323 (63.7%)44,244 (65.9%)
John Holmes (R):8,186 (37.1%) 14,442 (36.3%)22,981 (34.1%)
Charles Brown (D):5,346 (46.3%) 10,534 (47.1%)18,466 (46.3%)
Lisa Rea (D):3,641 (31.6%) 7,103 (31.7%)13,127 (32.9%)
Michael Hamersley (D):3,563 (22.1%) 4,773 (21.2%)8,334 (20.8%)
CA-06: 22% 42% of precincts reporting:
Lynn Woolsey (D):31,997 (65.5%) 38,656 (65.7%)45,339 (65.5%)
Joe Nation (D):16,913 (34.5%) 20,244 (34.3%)23,895 (34.5%)
CA-11: 0.8% 11.7% of precincts reporting:
Jerry McNerney (D):4143 (56.5%)9415 (52.6%)
Steve Filson (D):2044 (27.9%)5210 (29%)
Richard Pombo (R):5269 (55.4%)14,779 (61.9%)
Pete McCloskey (R):3584 (37.6%)7616 (31.9%)
CA-24: 10.5% 44.6% of precincts reporting:
Elton Gallegly (R):5,609 (81.3%)17,463 (80.8%)
Michael Tenenbaum (R):1,292 (18.7%)4,160 (19.2%)
Mark this one down for Gallegly in a landslide. Democratic nominee Jill Martinez has 10,703 votes so far running unopposed.
CA-36: 0% 36.3% of precincts reporting:
Jane Harman (D):5,981 (69.5%)13,621 (65%)
Marcy Winograd (D):2,629 (30.5%)7,353 (35%)
CA-51: 8.1% of precincts reporting:
Bob Filner (D): 4,336 (53.9%)
Juan Vargas (D): 3,329 (41.4%)
Posted at 12:04 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Iowa and Montana Results Open Thread
Posted by James L.Here we go.
MT-SEN, 0% 2.42% 10.73% 33.22% 75.78% of Precincts reporting:
John Morrison (D):1,140 (52.41)2,631 (34.73)6,463 (33.10)15,932 (34.86)27,735 (36.04)
Jon Tester (D):969 (44.55)4,801 (63.37)12,588 (64.48)8,657 (62.70)46,517 (60.44)
These numbers (the 2.42% update) are from Cascade County, which is the Great Falls area. This is fantastic news for Tester, since Matt Singer wrote that "This is one of the few towns where a number of legislators have stayed neutral or are supporting John Morrison, so expect it to be a bit closer here."
Conrad Burns (R-Inc.):1,500 (69.64)4,814 (71.36)10,027 (71.71)24,746 (70.32)Bob Keenan (R):
527 (24.47)1,541 (22.84)3,150 (22.53)8,543 (24.28)
IA-GOV, 10.34% 48.67% 58.53% 67.11% 99.47% Precincts Reporting:
Mike Blouin (D):4,771 (62.50)29,758 (34.40)33,084 (34.18)37,066 (34.30)49,900 (34.02)
Chet Culver (D):1,597 (20.92)31,527 (36.45)35,995 (37.19)40,816 (37.76)57,178 (38.98)
Ed Fallon (D):1,143 (14.97)24,064 (27.82)26,495 (27.37)28,835 (26.68)37,795 (25.77)
IA-01 (see IA-Gov link), 0.3% 42.81% 70.06% 100.00% Precincts Reporting:
Rick Dickinson (D):900 (61.73)6,274 (44.30)7,158 (33.29)9,937 (33.82)
Bill Gluba (D):323 (22.15)2,902 (20.49)6,003 (27.92)7,496 (25.51)
Braley, Bruce (D):207 (14.20)4,545 (32.10)7,487 (34.82)10,797 (36.74)
Bill Dix (R):123 (41.84)2,309 (40.11)4,472 (28.29)8,504 (37.53)
Mike Whalen (R):113 (38.44)2,424 (42.11)8,930 (56.49)10,985 (48.47)
Brian Kennedy (R):58 (19.73)1,024 (17.79)2,407 (15.23)3,173 (14.00)
Posted at 10:15 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, Iowa, Montana | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
California and Montana Predictions Open Thread
Posted by James L.Polls close in under a half hour in these two states Montana, so take a breath and hit me with your best shot. Of course, like Stoller, I'm not going to make any predictions (though I do have a few things rumbling around in my gut besides the stuffed peppers I'm digesting). I don't want to slant your guesses, but the NRCC is sounding pretty confident, according to the Hotline:
NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (NY) said earlier today that, based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50, ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) held about a 10K vote lead. Reynolds added, however, that he wouldn’t make any predictions at this early stage.
Posted at 09:32 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Alabama, Mississippi, and New Jersey Results Open Thread
Posted by James L.The polls are closed in these three states and results are trickling in.
AL-GOV: 4.38% 36.11% 84.97%Precincts Reporting (Note: A candidate needs 50%+1 in order to avert a run-off):
Lucy Baxley (D):17,075 (54.27)44,761 (58.16)125,233 (61.01)249,134 (59.93)
Siegelman, Don (D)13,757 (43.72)30,031 (39.02)73,007 (35.57)150,698 (36.25)
Okay, Baxley's starting to put this thing away. Thank God.
Bob Riley (R-inc):28,408 (69.23)59,973 (68.19)132,761 (65.42)
Roy Moore (R):12,624 (30.77)27,971 (31.81)70,185 (34.58)
Riley's safe; yawn.
MS-02: 5.26% 23.48% 47.57% 77.53% Precincts Reporting :
Bennie Thompson (D-Inc):2,893 (76.64)16,340 (65.98)29,440 (64.52)41,801 (63.79)
Chuck Espy (D):864 (22.89)8,261 (33.36)15,884 (34.81)23,237 (35.46)
The AP's also calling it for Thompson. Espy didn't come close at all, despite the name.
NJ-13 Special Primary, 25.28% 65.15% 94.99% Precincts Reporting :
Albio Sires (D):3,661 (56.33)12,684 (67.46)23,337 (73.51)
Joseph Vas (D):2,838 (43.67)6,117 (32.54)8,410 (26.49)
Vas looked surprisingly strong early on, but they're calling it for Sires, the Corzine-endorsed machine candidate.
I'll post updates when the picture changes.
Posted at 08:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Alabama, Mississippi, New Jersey | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Other Races to Watch on June 6
Posted by James L.Earlier in the week, we gave you the rundown of all the hot primary races in California and Montana. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that primaries are being held in six other states, as well: Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Here's what you should be keeping your eye on:
AL-Gov: This is one race that sure didn't live up to its billing. Last year, it looked like former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore (of "Ten Commandments" fame) might knock off unpopular Alabama Gov. Bob Riley in the Republican primary on the strength of the religious right, setting up the Democratic nominee with a chance to pick up the votes of, well, the sane faction of Alabama's Republican Party. But a year is a long time in politics, and Riley has looked stronger than ever since his performance during Hurricane Katrina boosted his popularity. The latest SUSA poll shows Moore tanking, so all the action is on the Democratic side, where former Gov. Don Siegelman's ongoing corruption trial is turning the primary against Lt-Gov. Lucy Baxley into a bit of a gong show, especially since Siegelman has been running neck-and-neck with Baxley in the polls for much of the campaign. Fortunately, Baxley has been surging ahead lately in the polls as Siegelman's trial has been dominating the local headlines. The only hope for Siegelman is that he can force a run-off, and in the meantime, find himself miraculously acquitted and get a boost from voters who may just buy into his assertion that the corruption/bribery charges were all a "political plot". But let's be real here: if Baxley can't win outright on Tuesday against this indicted punching bag, she's going to be destroyed by the much more formidable Riley this November.
IA-Gov: Given the importance of Iowa in Presidential elections, you'd think that there'd be more ink spilled on the national blogs over this race; Tom Vilsack is retiring, and other potential White House contenders would love to have a friend in the Iowa Governor's mansion during the next campaign season. The Republicans have already settled on IA-01 Rep. Jim Nussle for the nod, a deft politician who survived a decade of tough campaigns in a Democratic district. The Democratic field looks to be a two or three-way race between Secretary of State Chet Culver, former Rep. Mike Blouin, and State Senator Ed Fallon. The National Journal has a good summary of the field. Blouin, who hasn't run for elected office since losing his congressional seat in 1978, seems to be the establishment choice, and has racked up a huge amount of endorsements from major party players. Still, Culver is seen as the front-runner, and he was the only Democrat to lead Nussle in the most recent round of Rasmussen polls. Fallon is running a Wellstone-inspired outsider campaign.
MS-02: Of the four Democratic House incumbents facing moderate-to-serious primary challenges this Tuesday (the other two being CA-06's Lynn Woolsey, CA-36's Jane Harman and CA-51's Bob Filner), perhaps the most competitive is State Rep. Chuck Espy's challenge to seven-term Rep. Bennie Thompson. Espy's uncle, Mike Espy, is the former Congressman of the same district--and his election in 1986 made him the first black Congressman in Mississippi since Reconstruction. Mike Espy later went on to be Clinton's Agriculture Secretary and retains some popularity in the district, so the family connection gives his nephew a lift at the polls. I don't have a moose in this race, but for what it's worth, Thompson has sharply criticized Espy for being the beneficiary of a Republican-linked PAC that's hoping to topple Thompson by flooding the Democratic primary with Republican voters. Mississippi has an open primary system and no official party registration, but some establishment Democrats hoped to tighten the primary election rules by filing an unsuccessful lawsuit on the issue (a move apparently orchestrated to help protect Thompson.) Larry Sabato put this race in the top five primary challenges to watch back in February, and ranked the race as "Leans Thompson", but that was before Espy's fundraising kicked into gear. This AP article gives a decent overview of the race, for further information.
SD-Gov: Former State Representative and current South Dakota Democratic Party Vice-Chair Jack Billion is squaring off with former SD Farmers Union president Dennis Wiese for the chance to face Gov. Mike Rounds in the general election this November. Rounds, as you may recall, signed a horrendously restrictive abortion ban in March, and SD Democrats have the opportunity to make this an interesting race. As DavidNYC wrote, this isn't necessarily about defeating Rounds, but rather, this is about bruising him badly enough so that he'll be less formidable should he choose to challenge Sen. Tim Johnson for his seat in 2008. It's about thinking two moves ahead.
I realize that I'm missing the IA-01 rundown, but sleep is the imperative right now. I'll post an update tomorrow.
Posted at 04:34 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, South Dakota | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, June 02, 2006
CA-50: SUSA Poll Shows Narrow Lead for Bilbray
Posted by DavidNYCSUSA just released what I imagine will be their final poll in CA-50 (likely voters, early May in parens):
Busby: 45 (45)
Bilbray: 47 (45)
Other: 9 (9)
Undecided: 0 (1)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Bilbray's bump accounts for a better showing among independents: Busby previously led among that group by 54-19. Now it's down to 56-31. Given the negativity of the campaign, I'm surprised that Bilbray jumped 12 points among indies, who (at least CW tells us) are the kinds of voters most likely to be turned off by negative campaigning. Then again, most indies actually do identify with a particular party - there are very few "true" independents. So these might just be slightly hesitant Republicans coming home to roost.
SUSA also makes the following observation:
Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.
I never like it when we have to rely on young voters turning out. It just never happens. What I don't understand, though, is why young people have flocked to Busby in the last month, while older folks have turned toward Bilbray. In the previous SUSA poll, all four age brackets were pretty evenly divided between both candidates. Any thoughts?
Stepping back a bit, I'm not sure that any poll this late in the game will tell us anything we didn't already know in such a close race. It's going to be a nailbiter no matter what. I will say this, though: If Busby loses in a squeaker, the tradmed will talk about how Dems "failed to capitalize" on all manner of GOP sins and flaws. But this storyline will miss an important point: If Democrats across the map improve over their baselines as much as Busby has in CA-50, we will do quite well in November.
But as far as June 6th goes, I'm not making any predictions, except to say that this one is gonna be close - darn close.
(Thanks to AnthonyLA.)
Posted at 09:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Get-Out-The-Vote for Busby
Posted by DavidNYCUPDATE (2): MoveOn is indeed doing virtual phone-banking once again, just like it did with the April special primary. Go here to sign up. If you weren't able to get involved with the DCCC's phone-banking program, this is a great alternative. The minimum commitment should take you less than an hour, but of course, you can always do more.
UPDATE: Thanks to the fantastic response from readers of this site, the DCCC now is booked solid with volunteers. If I get any information from the Busby campaign about virtual phone banking, I will be sure to post it. In the meantime, please sign up on Busby's volunteer page - remember, if she wins on Tuesday, she still needs to win again in November and will need our help once more.
This, as they say, is it, folks. If you live anywhere remotely near CA-50, please, please, I implore you: Spend a few hours between now and election day helping out Francine Busby.
GOTV June 3rd-6thSaturday June 3rd, Sunday June 4th & Monday June 5th
Door Hangers 10am-8pm
(Shifts beginning at 10am, 1pm & 4pm)Election Day June 6th
Precinct Poll Checks
6:00am-9am Door Hangers
9:30am-8pm Precinct Poll Walks
(Shifts beginning at 9:30am, 12pm & 4pm)Canvass Locations:
Coastal Canvass
Headline Graphics Parking Lot
131 Aberdeen Drive
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 436-0133Southern Canvass
Carpenter's Hall
8595 Miralani Drive, Suite A
San Diego, Ca 92123Northern Canvass
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Phone Bank Locations:
Coastal Phone Bank:
Busby Cardiff Office
2121 Newcastle Avenue
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 479-0114Northern Phone Banks:
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Nava Residence
858 Calle Montera
Escondido, Ca 9202RSVP to volunteer@busbyforcongress.org
Or call (760) 479-0114
SPECIAL NOTE TO DC-AREA RESIDENTS:
The DCCC is looking for DC-area based volunteers to make calls to San Diego Democrats on Monday evening and all day Tuesday.To sign up for Monday and/or Tuesday, contact our Assistant to the Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Lewis, at lewis@dccc.org, or call (202) 741-1881.
Let's do this thing!
Posted at 01:10 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 01, 2006
CA-50: Wah Wah Wah... Wipeout!
Posted by James L.San Diego professor of Political Science Carl Luna, writing for the S.D. Union-Tribune, has a great breakdown on why surfer-turned-lobbyist-turned-Congressional candidate Brian Bilbray is facing a gnarly nightmare at the polls next Tuesday. Read it; it's a fun article, but for those without the time, here's the SparkNotes version of Bilbray's bind:
1) He was bruised by a divisive, expensive, and crowded primary.
2) His career as a lobbyist has only left him all the more vulnerable to anti-corruption broadsides.
3) Busby's lack of meaningful primary opposition has allowed her to pursue a message of competence, moderation and good governance over anything particularly ideological, while Bilbray has been caught-up in the Republican primary crowd's rush to out-right each other.
4) He has the charisma of "Nixon in a speedo".
5) His defeated conservative primary opponents have not rallied around him, and instead are STILL challenging Bilbray on the June 6 primary ballot--hurting Bilbray's appeal among conservatives.
6) His hard-right tack on immigration may end up pleasing no one--it will turn off moderates while leaving conservatives unconvinced.
7) He's tainted by horrid approval numbers for the President and the Republican Congress.
8) The NRCC's campaign ads which allege that Busby is "soft on pedophiles" have the potential for significant backlash votes.
9) In the last week of the campaign, Dick Cheney--not exactly the popular, cuddly face of the Republican Party--enthusiastically (I use the term loosely) stumped for Bilbray while John McCain, still the hero to moderate and independent Republicans, sapped Bilbray's momentum by boycotting a scheduled fundraiser after he started to slap around Busby for supporting McCain's immigration plan. This isn't the way you make friends and influence people, bro.
But for all his woes, Luna's convinced that the McCain snub will really be Bilbray's undoing:
Bottom line. Bilbray’s being jilted at the fund raising alter by that darling of the middle (or, is it the darling of the muddled?) John “Man For All Seasons, Audiences, People and Voters” McCain may well prove to have been the final pounder of Bilbray’s political surfing hopes. McCain’s boycott is a blazing sign to moderates and independents that Bilbray just ain’t their dude.Up through last week my bet was Bilbray by 2%. Given the way things are breaking, I now have to go Busby by a nose. Or, in surferese, by a toe on the nose.
It'll be a tight one, but it looks increasingly possible that Francine Busby can pull this one off.
(Thanks to Predictor for the tip.)
PS: Busby really seems to be hitching her wagon to Sen. McCain in order to innoculate herself against Bilbray's attacks, as seen in her ad entitled "It's Not Amnesty". A brilliant strategy in a ruby red district or unnerving McCain-boosting? Both, maybe.
UPDATE: Dailykos diarist dengre has an excellent diary up detailing the links between Brian Bilbray and Jack Abramoff.
Posted at 12:05 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
CA-50: "Maverick" John McCain Cancels Bilbray Fundraiser
Posted by James L.From the Associated Press, comes word of "maverick" Sen. John McCain sticking fast to his ideals and not being pushed around by his extremist peers in the Republican Party:
Arizona Sen. John McCain on Tuesday canceled an appearance for a Republican congressional candidate who has attacked his opponent for supporting McCain's immigration bill.McCain, R-Ariz., was scheduled to speak Wednesday at a breakfast fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, who is locked in a close runoff race with Democrat Francine Busby for the San Diego-area seat left vacant by disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham. The event was expected to raise at least $65,000.
So Bilbray smacks Busby for supporting one of McCain's policies. That's surely enough for our favorite straight-talking "maverick" to stay true to his principles and rescind his endorsement of Bilbray, right? Right? Erm, maybe not:
In an e-mail sent to the Bilbray campaign, McCain spokesman Craig Goldman acknowledged that McCain and Bilbray "disagree on some of the issues related to immigration reform." He said McCain did not want his appearance to distract from Bilbray's campaign.The e-mail reiterated McCain's endorsement of Bilbray, and said the senator's Straight Talk America political action committee would make the maximum allowable contribution of $5,000 to Bilbray's campaign. Goldman did not return phone and e-mail messages left seeking comment.
Pathetic. But oh well; at least it's one more momentum-sapping headline for Brian Bilbray.
Posted at 09:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Monday, May 29, 2006
The Week Ahead in California and Montana
Posted by James L.We have a number of hot races to look forward to next Tuesday, June 6 in California, and my neighbor state Montana. Here's a run-down on what to watch:
CA-50: Busby's all-out battle to steal this open seat from the Republicans will be, without a doubt, the premier event of the night--and the Republicans are on edge:
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
CA-42: If you live in the 42nd district of California (see a map here) or know anyone who does, and you'd like to have the chance to get a Democrat on the ballot this November, you'll have to write in the name of Mark Hull-Richter on the ballot. House Race guru BENAWU has the lowdown. Hull-Richter is gonna need to come up with 2641 write-in votes. That's a huge hill to climb, but it's worth a shot. Afterall, under-the-radar write-in campaigns allowed Democrats to field candidates in previously uncontested races in PA-09 & PA-15.
CA-36: Anti-war activist Marcy Winograd is challenging Rep. Jane Harman, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. From the L.A. Times:
In sum, Winograd casts her opponent as a Bush Democrat who was too slow to challenge the president on the war, one who moved left only when challenged in the campaign. Winograd could only have been delighted when restless House liberals complained of the same thing in the early jockeying for position in next year's Congress, lobbying to have Harman replaced as the party's voice on the Intelligence Committee.I'm not sure if Winograd has the necessary organization to pull of an upset, but her primary challenge has at least forced Harman to prove her progressive bona fides.
CA-11: Netroots favorite and '04 nominee Jerry McNerney vs. DCCC-favored Steve Filson. The winner will take on scandalized Republican Richard Pombo (he himself is facing a primary challenge from Pete McCloskey, a 78 year-old former Congressman who authored the Endangered Species Act). I don't have a dog in this race.
CA-06: In many ways this is the opposite of CA-36. Incumbent Rep. Diane Lynn Woolsey is one of the most liberal members of Congress, and her challenge is coming from the right:
Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey faces a challenge from Assembly member Joe Nation -- her first significant primary contest in more than a decade for the district representing Marin and much of Sonoma counties. Woolsey, elected in 1992, prides herself as being one of the House's most liberal members, attacking the war in Iraq, promoting alternative energy sources, and fighting cuts in health and education spending. Nation, a popular local politician and former economics professor, pitches himself as more moderate and pro-business. He touts his work in the Legislature to push for alternative fuels and his opposition to building a new Death Row at San Quentin Prison in Marin.
MT-Sen: Another huge one to watch. Likeable progressive Jon Tester has got his mojo working and