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Friday, October 14, 2005

CT-04: Dem Challenger Outraises GOP Incumbent

Posted by DavidNYC

Congressman Chris Shays represents one of the most left-leaning districts currently represented by a Republican nationwide. In short, he has no business serving the people of Connecticut's 4th CD. And if he had any sense, he'd just retire right now, because he is almost certainly going to lose next year. In 2004, Diane Farrell nearly knocked him off, garnering 48% of the vote - and that was in a pretty favorable Republican year. (Al Gore won CT by almost 18 points - Kerry by just 10.) And Farrell, a politician from Westport, CT, is challenging Shays again.

2006 is going to be a hell of a lot worse for the GOP, and I think Chris Shays is going to be one of many who pays the ultimate political price. Dems, for instance, hold a 9-point lead in NBC's generic Congressional ballot poll - the largest lead that news organization has ever seen. But today brings more bad news for Shays:

Farrell 3Q Amount Raised: $303K
Shays 3Q Amount Raised: $207K

I don't have the cash-on-hand numbers, but the DCCC is making this race a "top priority," meaning Farrell certainly won't hurt for dough. The desperate NRCC will undoubtedly try to prop up their man, but if they had any sense, they'd just give up now and find a nice cushy sinecure for Shays. Surely someone has a consulting gig for this man?

Posted at 10:52 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Technorati

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I didn't realize Shays' support was so soft last time. I don't know where his district lines end, but I know it's entirely within Fairfield County in southwest Connecticut, which Kerry won by a scant four percentage points. Perhaps most of the Republican precincts in Fairfield Co. are in Nancy Johnson's district. Rob Simmons of eastern Connecticut is in the bluest district in the nation with a Republican House member. If we could pick off both guys, holding the Speaker's gavel in January 2007 seems like a very real possibility.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2005 11:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment