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Thursday, April 13, 2006

Incumbents With No Major-Party Opposition

Posted by DavidNYC

CQ has the complete list:

Republicans (7)

• Spencer Bachus, Alabama 6
• K. Michael Conaway, Texas 11
• Charlie Dent, Pennsylvania 15
• Jim Leach, Iowa 2
• Gary G. Miller, California 42
• Charles W. “Chip” Pickering Jr., Mississippi 3
• Bill Shuster, Pennsylvania 9

Democrats (20)

• Robert E. Andrews, New Jersey 1
• Xavier Becerra, California 31
• Earl Blumenauer, Oregon 3
• Robert A. Brady, Pennsylvania 1
• G.K. Butterfield, North Carolina 1
• Jim Costa, California 20
• Robert E. “Bud” Cramer, Alabama 5
• Henry Cuellar, Texas 28
• Artur Davis, Alabama 7
• Lloyd Doggett, Texas 25
• Mike Doyle, Pennsylvania 14
• Charlie Gonzales, Texas 20
• Al Green, Texas 9
• Juanita Millender-McDonald, California 32
• George Miller, California 7
• Donald M. Payne, New Jersey 10
• Silvestre Reyes, Texas 16
• Hilda L. Solis, California 32
• Maxine Waters, California 35
• Diane Watson, California 33

Filing deadlines have closed in all of these states. Howver, some of the names on this list are present due to a technicality (eg, a ballot access snafu in IA-02 has caused a temporary delay, but we will indeed have a Dem running there). In a few others (eg, PA-15), it's still possible to get a candidate on the ballot via alternate means, and that may yet happen.

Also, beware of this bit of information:

The list of unopposed House members almost certainly will increase in the coming weeks, following filing deadlines in Virginia this Friday, Georgia on April 28 and Florida on May 12. These states in 2004 produced a combined total of 20 House winners who had no major-party opponent.

Florida was a particular embarrassment in 2004, with 9 out of 25 CDs going totally unopposed. Things like this happen when you have a too-cozy relationship between the major parties. Hopefully history won't repeat itself this year when the rosters for these three big states come due.

Posted at 07:20 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Just a few points.
1)We are well on the way to fill an extraordinary high number of house races. 425 is not out of reach. 414 is the current total.

2)Leaving aside our 3 incumbents who haven't filed we have only 3 vacancies in Florida with a maybe candidate in FL 7 (chagnon).

3) The Barry Welsh 50 State Page is being revamped but there is an update up as a sort of working document. http://www.barrywelsh.org/fiftystate/index.html

4) there are only 3! districts where we definitely won't have a candidate on the ballot.

Posted by: BENAWU [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 13, 2006 08:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

if you want to see the updated 50 state page then try this link actually.


Posted by: BENAWU [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 13, 2006 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is off-topic somewhat, but somebody on another blog cited a Chicago Daily News poll showing David McSweeney leading Melissa Bean by eight points, and Peter Roskam leading Tammy Duckworth by 15 points. Anybody know anything more about this? Hopefully the guy just invented the numbers.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 13, 2006 09:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why is PA-15 so Republican? That was Pat Toomey's district, and now the home of one of the few unopposed Republican incumbents. Isn't this the Allentown-Bethlehem area? Kerry won both of those counties. Must be really gerrymandered to hell if Toomey and Dent were/are so secure there.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 13, 2006 09:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, see the above post. PA-15 is NOT so Republican. My understanding is that recruitment got fucked up LAST time, leading to a 20-point Dent win, and thus no one really wanting to oppose him this time.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 13, 2006 10:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is kind of meaningless, in a way, until after the primary, even then...

Let me pick on one example.

In Ohio, getting on The Congressional ballot requires fifty signatures and I believe the filing fee is $85.

So, In the Ohio Ninth District, there are three names on the GOP ballot.

None are meaningful candidates - which is to say, no websites, no money, no GOP endorsement- nothing.

One guy is mentally ill and has run many times before. He is extremely unlikely to get the endorsement of any of the four county GOP Parties in the District. And yet, he might "win" the GOP primary.

I'm not talking about people who are outside the mainstream OR even people who volunteer to be sacrificial lambs to get a name on the ballot, these people are just wackos.

Trying to asses where we're at in Congressional races simply won't be possible until AFTER the primaries and even then -- it will still be subjective.

For example, a dear friend of mine, agreed at the last minute to "campaign" for a congressional seat. In fact, we had to get him on the ballot as a "write-in" just as Charlie Wilson is trying right now, My friend officially raised and spent $20,000.

He was a "major party candidate" and got his name in the history books, bless his heart.

But does it really mean anything?

Posted by: Ohanon [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 14, 2006 12:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Unfortunately, the challenger in NJ-4 has dropped out due to a Hatch Act conflict.

Posted by: jmelli [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 17, 2006 01:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Iowa - 2 Republican Jim LEACH is listed without major party opposition?

Did something happen to Democrat David LOEBSACK's candidacy? I thought CQ just downlisted IA-2 from Safe Republican to Republican favored? Hard to believe that would happen without some form of major party opposition.

Posted by: walja [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 17, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Loebsack is expected to be nominated at a party convention or something similar.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 17, 2006 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment