Swing State Project

« CA-50: Two Polls Show Busby With Wide Leads | Main | IL-17: Lane Evans (D) Retires »

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

I know we just had one of these, but for whatever reason, I'm a bit blogged out at the moment. Please share thoughts on any campaigns, candidates, elections, ballot initatives, etc.

One quick note: I'm a little worried to see that the North Dakota Republicans have managed to find a strong challenger to Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL. It troubles me because the GOP is making so few attempts to play offense this year (the only ones I can think of are OH-06 and SC-05), so I think they wouldn't bother targeting this race unless they had a strong reason for feeling good about it. What do you think?

Posted at 01:31 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2248

Comments

A Daily Kos diarist just broke the news that Lane Evans of IL-17 is retiring. This is very bad news as the Illinois filing deadline has passed. They didn't seem to be too worried about the prospect of a replacement candidate being available for the Dems, but this seat (Rock Island, Moline, Galesburg) is not a Democratic stronghold, giving John Kerry less than 52% in 2004. Newswoman Andrea Zinga won the GOP primary, and I'm in the dark about how strong of a candidate she is. Until I hear if and who Evans' replacement candidate ends up being, I'm gonna be nervous about this seat.

Posted by: Mark at March 28, 2006 01:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I can't remember the guy's name, but Pomeroy had a stiff challenge in 2002 and held on by a slim 52-48 margin. North Dakota is a very hard-core pro-life state, so if the abortion issue's profile rises due in part to the actions of its neighbors to the south, Pomeroy could see some backlash from that whatever his position on abortion is (I don't know if he's pro-choice or pro-life). Other than that, I think he's probably safe. Conrad and Dorgan both have stratospheric approval ratings despite governing to the left of what one may expect a North Dakota Democrat could get away with. I suspect Pomeroy is enjoying some of that action himself, particularly if he's in a position to roll out the pork for his home state.

Nonetheless, it might be helpful for me to find out exactly who Pomeroy's top-tier challenger is. I didn't hear any buzz about this until now, so who is the foil in question?

Posted by: Mark at March 28, 2006 02:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Zinga was the 2004 nominee against Evans, and she didn't win any popularity contests for critisizing Evans based on his battle with Parkinson's. So that's the bright side--the GOP nominee is already damaged goods. Still, I'd keep an eye on this one.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 28, 2006 02:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another thing I can add being a blue person in a very red state, my guess is that North Dakota Democrats, like Indiana Democrats, have gotten very good at getting people to split their ticket, and/or vote "outside of their usual party" for certain candidates. I'm not sure if Pomeory has gotten to the level of Conrad or Dorgan in that respect, but has to at least know how to make that kind of appeal. And speaking of the two ND Senators, my guess is that Pomeroy really could use their active help this time around.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at March 28, 2006 02:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, do you have a link on the IL-17 diary?

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 28, 2006 03:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here you go, David:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/28/124122/881

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 28, 2006 03:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So much for the 50-State Strategy.

Qualifying has been open for three weeks in Alabama and none of the five incumbent Republicans has a Democratic challenger yet.

http://www.aladems.org/candidates/2006_Candidates_list.aspx

The only qualifiers so far are incumbent Dems Artur Davis and Bud Cramer. Deadline is April 7.

Posted by: quaoar at March 28, 2006 04:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

quaor, I know I read somewhere we have a candidate for AL-01.

still, 4 more to go (as well as the 1 seat in South Carolina)

As for IL-17, suck.

Posted by: trowaman at March 28, 2006 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In AL-01, Vivian Berkerle has recently stepped forward to run.

Hopefully the rest will fill up by the deadline... but I really wouldn't be surprised if one or two or three were left unchallenged. A state party blogger said on DailyKos that they expect most of the Congressional Republicans to have challengers, and that a number of peoplel are interested. We shall see...

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 28, 2006 04:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

and we have a candidate in SC 2 as well.
:http://www.scdp.org/blog.html
His name is Michael Ray Ellisor and I think he was the 2004 nominee.

In SC candidates file with the party not the sos.

So by my count that is 28 districts left to fill.

Posted by: BENAWU at March 28, 2006 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's good news about AL-01, although she has not yet qualified. The seat that has the best chance for flipping, though still a longshot, is AL-03. Hopefully someone will step forward to run there.

Posted by: quaoar at March 28, 2006 05:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Look what the guys a Dailykos dug up on a republican running in CA-50. Howard Kaloogian posted a pic of what he claimed to be downtown Baghdad to show how calm it is.

Except it turns out the pic is from Turkey. Kind of a long thread but well worth it.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/3/28/152755/284

Posted by: Demrock6 at March 28, 2006 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well bored so time for me to lay down my list of House districts that i think can flip. more R to D than D to R maybe it is just because i am a D... Not sure on a few of them hopeing you guys could help me out with that.

From R to D:

AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-04
CA-11
CA-50
CO-04
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-13
FL-22
IL-06
IL-10 (depends on candidate what Dem. is running here?)
IL-11 (I think it can be competitive..)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
IA-01
KY-02 (is this competitive?)
KY-03
KY-04
MN-01 (is this competitive?)
MN-06
NJ-07
NM-01
NY-24
NY-29
NC-08
NC-11
OH-01 (i heard this was competitive..)
OH-02 (Jean makes it competitive.)
OH-15
OH-18
PA-06
PA-07 (maybe?)
PA-08
TX-22
VA-02
WA-08
WV-02 (maybe?)
WI-08

Possible D to R:

GA-08
GA-12
IL-17
IA-03
KS-03
LA-03
ND-AL (Happy David?)
OH-06
SD-AL
TN-04
TX-17
UT-02
VT-AL (I don't think it is competitive but whatever.)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 28, 2006 08:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Despite the overwhelming GOP edge in the district, I don't think Matheson is in any danger this year in UT-02. I also think Herseth is pretty solid. And I hadn't heard much chatter about KS-03 or TN-04. Am I missing anything on that front?

Some people would add SC-05 to your list (D->R), but I'm fairly confident about that one. However, I disagree with you on VT-AL. I know we all think of Vermont as being this uber-liberal place. But VTers aren't necessarily very loyal Dems, and a strong third-party challenge from the left could screw us here.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 28, 2006 08:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My thinking on D to R:

On UT-02 Matheson has not always been safe in 2002 he pulled away by less than a 2,000 votes. I agree kind of on Haserth but lets not forget that it is one of the most Red states out there and she didn't have a "Solid" win in 2004 but it was good (53-46.) In TN-04 Lincoln has gotten off okay but i tink that is mainly due to a weak challenge in 2004 if in 2006 they put somebody up who can run a good campaign than Davis is in trouble same in KS-03. I saw that internal poll on SC-05 that showed Spratt with like a 40 point lead so i think we are okay there. On Vermont i just have uh problems seeing Vermont send a Republican to congress in 2006 which is looking to be one of the worst years for Republicans in a long while.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 28, 2006 08:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

david - zuckerman dropped out ,so there wont be a strong progressive challenger

Posted by: yomoma2424 at March 28, 2006 09:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I feel pretty confident about us fielding challengers in Alabama. Back in 2004, 4 out of 5 Republican districts had a Democratic challenger. With 2006 being a gubernatorial election year and with all signs pointing to it being a good year for Democrats, I'm sure that they'll all have at least token opposition. Of course, our best shot is in AL-03. That district was an open seat in 2002, but we lost it by a margin of 50-48 after being outspent 2-1 once the DCCC pulled out in the last few days. It's obvious that this district was/is winnable, if only we had the right candidate and some financial support down here.

Posted by: BirminghamDemocrat at March 28, 2006 09:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It would be a tragedy if those Alabama seats go unfilled, considering that we're going to have a strong Dem gubernatorial challenger (Lucy Baxley) at the top of the ticket.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 28, 2006 09:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Only got 1 of 5 alabama districts filled. Any rumours?

Posted by: BENAWU at March 28, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I we can decently fund beloved and even revered State Senator Harry Mitchell, he has a hell of a shot at defeating that repulsive Congressman JD Hayworth.

Please go to the actblue page on Actblue.com and consider giving to Harry Mitchell.

Posted by: boyblue at March 28, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jim Rinck is running for Congress against Vern Ehlers, If you haven't heard..

The Alabama Democratic Party employee/blogger poliscizac seemed pretty confident of getting at challengers for Rogers, Everett and Bonner:

"We will definitely field some strong candidates for Congress. Our likely candidate in the 1st District is a former Republican officeholder. We have a Vietnam veteran and experienced candidate looking to run in the 3rd. Numerous candidates are looking at the 2nd. And I know we've had some interest in the 4th and 6th as well."

'Some Interest' is probably a step above 'no interest'

And the ALDP has a nifty campaign-related site too.

Posted by: RBH at March 28, 2006 10:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks RBH I knew about Rinck In fact I will post a diary later about the unopposed house races. I have us at 29 remaining.

BTW LAwrence withdrew in FL25

Posted by: BENAWU at March 28, 2006 10:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Apparently my poorly-worded question was missed. Who is Pomeroy's challenger in ND-AL that has David nervous?

Posted by: Mark at March 29, 2006 09:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Stephen Harrison the "vetted" democratic candidate to take on Vito Fossella (NY-13) officially has a website up and running (partially).

harrison06.com

more on the race is always available here: NY13

Posted by: jonahinnyc at March 29, 2006 10:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Get Bob Bowman on the ballot! If you live in FL-15 please help get him on the ballot. http://bowman2006.com/get_involved.htm

Posted by: D in FL. at March 29, 2006 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's at the CQ link. State Rep. Duane DeKrey.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 29, 2006 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In the scheme of things, Pomeroy faced a challenge from a state officeholder (Claybaugh) in 2002, and beat him 52-48 in a good Republican year.

Duane Sand put up $1M and lost 60/40 in 2004.

I'm not worried about Pomeroy.

Posted by: RBH at March 29, 2006 07:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just looked up DeKrey's home turf in North Dakota. It's a rural district in central North Dakota just east of Bismarck. This is strong GOP turf, so he won't be cutting into Pomeroy's base in the northern and eastern counties of the state. While I don't know anything about DeKrey's stature in the ND House, the geographical logistics don't seem to be weighing in his favor. Pomeroy was easily beaten in the Bismarck area by Claybaugh in 2002, but still pulled out a win statewide...and DeKrey isn't even really from Bismarck.

Posted by: Mark at March 29, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

But, there's good news out of South Dakota:

"Bruce Whalen, a political unknown from Pine Ridge, will be the Republican Party's endorsed candidate for the U.S. House in South Dakota, challenging Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth in her second re-election bid.

The state Republican Party is helping Whalen, an American Indian who heads the Shannon County GOP, in getting the 1,900 signatures of registered voters that are needed for his official nomination, said Randy Frederick, state GOP chairman.

The filing deadline is Tuesday."

BTW, Kerry won Shannon County with 85% of the vote.

My two reasons for being confident of Herseth's chances

a) Her opponent is having to get party help to get the signatures needed for ballot access
b) Whatever advantage Whalen gets from being a Shannon County resident is cancelled out by the people who'll split tickets and vote for Herseth

At least one Dakota will produce an election that won't freak out David.

Posted by: RBH at March 30, 2006 01:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jim Rinck, Democratic candidate against Vern Ehlers, got onto Politics1, Fark, and Olbermann for this gem of a quote:

"Our congressman is the smartest person in the district, and we might be the only place in the country that can say that, But he falls somewhat short on the charisma meter. And it might take a somewhat less intelligent -- although much noisier -- person to get some things done for this district."

Jim.. I don't think this strategy is going to work.

Posted by: RBH at March 30, 2006 08:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh man.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 30, 2006 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well at least we have a candidate. sort of.

Posted by: BENAWU at March 31, 2006 06:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rinck is a few steps above the "Worst Case Scenario", because he does hold elective office. Even if that office is the Grand Rapids Board of Education.

Posted by: RBH at March 31, 2006 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Isn't Ehlers out in Calvin College territory? At least Rinick isn't running in a swing district.

Posted by: Mark at March 31, 2006 09:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Michigan districts with Republican Congressmen, ranked from bluest to reddest:

MI-09 (Knollenberg): 51/49 Bush
MI-11 (McCotter): 53/47 Bush
MI-06 (Upton): 53/47 Bush
MI-08 (Rogers): 54/46 Bush
MI-07 (Schwarz): 55/45 Bush
MI-04 (Camp): 55/45 Bush
MI-10 (Miller): 57/43 Bush
MI-03 (Ehlers): 60/40 Bush
MI-02 (Hoekstra): 61/39 Bush

Basically it's red.

As Olbermann said.. "Rinck: Louder. Dumber. Better"

Posted by: RBH at March 31, 2006 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment