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Wednesday, March 01, 2006

TX-28: Poll Shows Tight Race; Big Mo' for Ciro; Runoff Likely

Posted by DavidNYC

Sports fans, it's late - and it's close. I've just gotten my hands on a new internal poll from the Rodriguez campaign, and the results are hugely exciting (primary voters, Oct. in parens):

Rodriguez: 34 (30)
Cuellar: 39 (45)
Morales: 8 (?)
Undecided: 19 (10)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Ciro goes up, Cuellar goes down. A fifteen point gap closes to just five. That's an enormous improvement from October, and you can be sure that we (remember, Ciro's special interest friends?) had a big hand in that.

Getting down to brass tacks: If no candidate wins 50%-plus-one, then we go to a run-off, which would take place on April 11th. That's looking fairly likely right now because of the presence of newcomer Victor Morales (who was not included in the October poll). So yes, this means that, in all likelihood, we get right back up again on March 8th and fight this one out for another month. The good news is that all the momentum will be with Ciro, and the vast majority of Morales voters will break his way, too.

In the mean time, we still have work to do: Contribute | Volunteer. Go Ciro!

Posted at 10:00 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

I don't i'm kind of worried. We only have like a week to go and we are down 5 and this is a internal poll. I'm hopeing the Undecideds push us over the top but i'm still uneasy about this.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 1, 2006 03:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Unless somebody gets 50%, then the election would go to a runoff, as mentioned before.

I also think the support for Morales might be a bit high.

The most likely outcome is a narrow first round, but nobody gets a majority.

Posted by: RBH at March 1, 2006 04:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

clarifying: I mean that the support in the poll for Morales might be a bit higher than it will be.

In other words.

Something like 47/47 could happen, with 6% for Morales

Posted by: RBH at March 1, 2006 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment