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Friday, August 04, 2006

TX-23: Looking More Blue Today

Posted by RBH

The results from the newest Texas Redistricting have come in, and Burnt Orange Report is there!

The re-re-redistricting affected the following districts: TX-15 (Hinojosa), TX-21 (Smith), TX-23 (Bonilla), TX-25 (Doggett), and TX-28 (Cuellar).

Hinojosa's new district is much more compact than the current district. Smith's district appears to be redder than before which will make things harder for John Courage. Doggett actually got a pretty good setup. He now has his part of Travis county, plus more of Travis County, and some assorted counties to the east. Cuellar's district adds all of Webb county, and subtracts Bexar county.

Early reports suggest that Bonilla is in a competitive district again. Of course, with an open primary just 3 months away, Bonilla has a pretty good advantage. No word on if there'll be any sort of stampede of candidates for Bonilla's district, or if Rick Bolanos will get an uncontested shot at Bonilla.

Election implications: Lightning might strike and somebody big might step in to face Bonilla, although I doubt it. Running for Congress now in Texas probably carries the same shot of victory as running a marathon on the fly. I do expect Cuellar and Doggett to get actual Republican opponents, but nothing serious.

Posted at 07:10 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

A couple of points.

Yeah, Courage got hurt bad by this. I'll know more about what is happening on that front for ya on Monday.

Doggett could and probably will get people of some sort to enter his race. In face, I HOPE so (any Republican). It will stay in his column anyways and force him to spend some of the $1.8 mil he's sitting on to help the downballot races in Travis County including the last Republican state house seat we are trying to pick up in the southwestern part of the county.

On Bonilla... people could enter. There is preliminary chatter down in Texas ranging from a state rep, a state senator, a former rep and city councilman, and of course Ciro. Nother near even firm or speculative yet, just the list of people that could potentialy, logically run.

Posted by: Karl-T at August 4, 2006 07:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

But now TX-21 has such locations as Kerrville and.. *looks at the map* *keeps looking*.. well, the winner of TX-21 gets to be Kinky Friedman's Congressman (although Kinky may not vote in that race either).

Bolanos and his $3873 CoH isn't really holding a lot of influence when it comes to the whole "who'll run and who'll defer" situation.

Posted by: RBH at August 4, 2006 07:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If my understanding is correct, these districts will be subject to a Louisiana-style open primary followed by a run-off in December. It might be to our advantage to run two or three decent candidates in TX-23 (providing they beat up Bonilla, not each other) to maximize turnout/interest...

Posted by: James L. at August 4, 2006 09:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, no kidding. I've met Bolanos, an awesome guy. But with an open primary... you know what happens if other are interested.

Here's the early lowdown on who may run. My money is on Julian Castro to tell you the truth.

Posted by: Karl-T at August 4, 2006 09:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No word on if Gene Kelly will launch another campaign. I can't tell which city Universal City is located in, it's either in TX-21 or TX-28.

Either way, Gene and his nonexistant campaign of doom would probably get an absurd number of votes, even in an open congressional primary.

Posted by: RBH at August 4, 2006 10:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, I thought Gene Kelly was in Lubbok? Am I wrong?

Also, your Kinky comment is HILARIOUS. Nice job.

Posted by: trowaman at August 4, 2006 11:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 2006 election info says that Kelly gave his hometown as Universal City.

Kelly and Friedman could form a ticket in 2010. Gene Kelly would refuse to run a campaign and vote (maybe), Kinky would run a campaign and refuse to vote. Kelly/Kinky 10!

Posted by: RBH at August 5, 2006 03:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment