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Monday, December 05, 2005

TX-22: Delay Getting Crushed by "Democrat"

Posted by DavidNYC

Tim at the DNC has word of a new CNN/Gallup poll on the race to unseat Tom DeLay (registered voters, no trendlines):

"Democrat": 49
DeLay: 36
(MoE: ±4%)

Nick Lampson is Tom DeLay's only Dem opponent, so I don't know why Gallup didn't just use his name. But nonetheless, this is very encouraging news for our side, especially coming on the same day as a judge refusing to throw out money-laundering charges against DeLay. (I thought the judge's decision on the conspiracy charge was absurd, but I'll take what I can get.)

Though generic party names tend to poll better than individuals, bear this in mind: The poll also found DeLay with a 37-52 favorability rating. And this is in a district that Bush won over Kerry by 64-36. Youch! (A little aside: This district got less Republican after Tom DeLay's illegal redistricting scheme got forced through. DeLay gave up some of his Republican voters for other neighboring districts. In 2000, TX-22 went for Bush over Gore 67-33.)

Bottom line: Tom DeLay is out as majority leader, and soon enough, he's gonna be out of Congress altogether. Hell, maybe he'll follow the Dukester's lead and just bail now.

Posted at 07:19 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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Fantastic news. And it bodes very well for Lampson, since part of DeLay's new district was part of Lampson's old district in the Galveston area. I was laughed at a couple of times when I suggested Tom DeLay would be one of the most vulnerable Republican House members in 2006. Particularly striking is that this poll came from Gallup, which wildly overrepresented Republicans throughout 2004. If Gallup is showing DeLay running 13 points below hypothetical opposition, then I'd say The Hammer's prospects are about as bleak as Santorum's.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 5, 2005 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think that lampson would probably get much lower than random democrat. you can see that in things like the SD senate race, where Daschle had a very high approoval rating but still lost because of poor demographics. When you put an actually living body there instead of any democrat, im sure a lot of numbers will go to IDK and Delay

Posted by: yomoma2424 [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2005 09:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment