Swing State Project

« California and Montana Predictions Open Thread | Main | MT-Sen: Tester Edges Morrison in Billings »

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Iowa and Montana Results Open Thread

Posted by James L.

Here we go.

MT-SEN, 0% 2.42% 10.73% 33.22% 75.78% of Precincts reporting:

John Morrison (D): 1,140 (52.41) 2,631 (34.73) 6,463 (33.10) 15,932 (34.86) 27,735 (36.04)
Jon Tester (D): 969 (44.55) 4,801 (63.37) 12,588 (64.48) 8,657 (62.70) 46,517 (60.44)

These numbers (the 2.42% update) are from Cascade County, which is the Great Falls area. This is fantastic news for Tester, since Matt Singer wrote that "This is one of the few towns where a number of legislators have stayed neutral or are supporting John Morrison, so expect it to be a bit closer here."

Conrad Burns (R-Inc.): 1,500 (69.64) 4,814 (71.36) 10,027 (71.71) 24,746 (70.32)

Bob Keenan (R): 527 (24.47) 1,541 (22.84) 3,150 (22.53) 8,543 (24.28)

IA-GOV, 10.34% 48.67% 58.53% 67.11% 99.47% Precincts Reporting:

Mike Blouin (D): 4,771 (62.50) 29,758 (34.40) 33,084 (34.18) 37,066 (34.30) 49,900 (34.02)
Chet Culver (D): 1,597 (20.92) 31,527 (36.45) 35,995 (37.19) 40,816 (37.76) 57,178 (38.98)
Ed Fallon (D): 1,143 (14.97) 24,064 (27.82) 26,495 (27.37) 28,835 (26.68) 37,795 (25.77)

IA-01 (see IA-Gov link), 0.3% 42.81% 70.06% 100.00% Precincts Reporting:

Rick Dickinson (D): 900 (61.73) 6,274 (44.30) 7,158 (33.29) 9,937 (33.82)
Bill Gluba (D): 323 (22.15) 2,902 (20.49) 6,003 (27.92) 7,496 (25.51)
Braley, Bruce (D): 207 (14.20) 4,545 (32.10) 7,487 (34.82) 10,797 (36.74)

Bill Dix (R): 123 (41.84) 2,309 (40.11) 4,472 (28.29) 8,504 (37.53)
Mike Whalen (R): 113 (38.44) 2,424 (42.11) 8,930 (56.49) 10,985 (48.47)
Brian Kennedy (R): 58 (19.73) 1,024 (17.79) 2,407 (15.23) 3,173 (14.00)

Posted at 10:15 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, Iowa, Montana | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2394

Comments

With 28 of 29 precincts in, Matt McCoy has won his primary in the Iowa state Senate race.

Less complete results look good for Theresa Spry,
not good for Charon Asetoyer and Faith Spotted Eagle in the South Dakota state legislative races.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at June 6, 2006 10:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I told you guys the Iowa gubernatorial primary was gonna be a contest. Look at how close things are with 20% of the vote in.

Posted by: Mark at June 6, 2006 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

These have the results for the primaries in IA:

http://www.whotv.com/Global/link.asp?L=53083

77% for McCoy is pretty good, considering some of the primary attacks against him. Hopefully the GOP won't claim the results mean that his district is divided and he's weak, and all the usual.

Posted by: James B at June 6, 2006 10:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The fact that 28% of the overall Iowa vote is in but only 7% of IA-01 bodes well for Mike Blouin, who used to represent much of the current IA-01 in Congress. If he doesn't win this thing, I suspect he'll lose it by the barest of margins.

Posted by: Mark at June 6, 2006 11:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for this James L. Anyway you could add CA Gov to this list that you're updating? Thanks!

Posted by: Isaac Goldstein at June 6, 2006 11:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When do you start posting California?

Posted by: DemoGoGo at June 6, 2006 11:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

California will come up in a few minutes... sorry, I got caught up in the excitement for Tester. I really think he's going to win this thing.

Posted by: James L. at June 6, 2006 11:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh yeah, if you guys wanna check out the CA results before I make the thread, go here. It'll take a few minutes before anything's up on that page, so hang tight.

Posted by: James L. at June 6, 2006 11:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks James -- I'm pretty nervous / excited / hopeful about Tester too. let's hope he wins -- best shot for the seat in November.

Posted by: Isaac Goldstein at June 6, 2006 11:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tester WILL win. I promise. He beat Morrison in Billings, and that's REALLY bad news for Morrison. And great news for the Netroots! :)

Posted by: James L. at June 6, 2006 11:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Updated the Iowa results

Posted by: RBH at June 6, 2006 11:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The IA-1 results for the GOP primary are razor-thin. I wonder if that's going to be an acromonious post-primary atmosphere.

Posted by: James B at June 6, 2006 11:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I hope there are no sharp objects in the Morrison campaign headquarters. He's getting smashed here.

Posted by: Mark at June 6, 2006 11:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The update from 50% to 67% in changed both IA-01 races dramatically

Repubs:(69% in)
Mike Whalen 8930 57%
Bill Dix 4472 28%
Brian Kennedy 2407 15%

Dems: (70% in)
Bruce Braley 7487 35%
Rick Dickinson 7158 33%
Bill Gluba 6003 28%
Denny Heath 854 4%

The dems look more like expected. The margin in the Reps race is shocking.

One other shout out my favorite, Denise O'brien, in the IA Ag Sec race, defeating the state party backed Dusky Terry handily(in what has to be the biggest shocker of the night):
Denise O'Brien 52270 58%
Dusky Terry 38054 42%

Posted by: bawbie at June 6, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey bawbie, can you give us a little insight on what a Whalen victory means for the general?

Posted by: James L. at June 7, 2006 12:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James-
I really don't know a whole lot about it, I live in IA-02.

Whalen is a restraunt entrepreneur who has ran as the "outsider" in the campaign. So he is the biggest change from the ultimate insider in Nussle.

It'll depend a lot on who the Dem ends up being, but I don't know alot about Dickenson.

He's inexperienced, so I think that's a good thing for us in a majority Dem district.

BTW- Blouin is conceding on TV right now (bashing Nussle, thank god)

Posted by: bawbie at June 7, 2006 12:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Iowa Sec of State has different results for IA-1

Dickinson 8025
Gluba 5761
Braley 5225
Heath 597

Only 4 counties not reporting (Black Hawk, Buchanan, Butler and Clinton) as of 11:55 PM.

Posted by: hugh7975 at June 7, 2006 01:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dickinson 8,354

Gluba 6,123

Braley 5,801

Heath 650

As of 12:07 AM with Buchanan County in, leaving Black Hawk, Butler and Clinton unreported.

Posted by: hugh7975 at June 7, 2006 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From what I hear, Whalen is the most moderate of the three Republican candidates for IA-01, which might not be good. On the Dem side, with 95% of the vote in, Rick Dickinson and Bruce Braley were within 60 votes of each other. I know nothing about Dickinson, but have heard some sentiment that he's a fairly weak candidate. I'm still hoping Braley can pull it out, but there will have to be some outstanding precincts in Waterloo-Cedar Falls for him to win.

Posted by: Mark at June 7, 2006 01:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No sooner do I finish posting that and I see Braley swept the remaining 5% of the vote to pull off a pretty decent margin of nearly 1,000 votes. I guess those remaining precincts were in Waterloo-Cedar Falls. With Braley steering the ship, I'm much more confident we'll take IA-01 in November. This is turning out to be a pretty good night....now we just need to start seeing SOME CA-50 numbers!

Posted by: Mark at June 7, 2006 01:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark is there a link to where you are pulling these results? I am on the Iowa SoS site and they are obviously running behind.

Thanks.

Posted by: hugh7975 at June 7, 2006 01:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just popped up on SoS site. Black Hawk County comes in big for Braley.

Braley 10,254
Dickinson 9,365
Gluba 7,081
Heath 887

Only Clinton County out as of 12:16 AM report

Posted by: hugh7975 at June 7, 2006 01:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hugh, here are the numbers I was looking at from The Des Moines Register.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2006/by_state/IA_Page_0606.html

Posted by: Mark at June 7, 2006 01:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The best news I've gotten so far in a Congressional Primary. Bruce Whalen has definetely won the R priamry as their candidate for Nussle's district. The thing is though, Dix is an experienced State Representative, and raised the most money whalen spent like half a million of his on dollars. He's vitually unknown, not an experience campaigner, I think we're definetely going to win this know. The only problem is, Lamm might win the CO-07 primary, which would be a complete disastor .

Posted by: ArkDem at June 7, 2006 01:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment