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Monday, May 01, 2006

Taking the Meaning of "Red" a Little Too Far

Posted by DavidNYC

The DCCC recently announced its first batch of candidates for its Red-to-Blue program, which Roll Call says "provides promising candidates with a prize package of campaign cash, communications support and a mentor from the ranks of current House Democrats." There's just one thing nagging me about this list...

Darcy Burner Wash. 8th
Phyllis Busansky Fla. 9th
Francine Busby Calif. 50th
Joe Courtney Conn. 2nd
John Cranley Ohio 1st
Jill Derby Nev. 2nd
Tammy Duckworth Ill. 6th
Brad Ellsworth Ind. 8th
Diane Farrell Conn. 4th
Steve Filson Calif. 11th
Kirsten Gillibrand N.Y. 20th
Tessa Hafen Nev. 3rd
Baron Hill Ind. 9th
Mary Jo Kilroy Ohio 15th
Ron Klein Fla. 22nd
Ken Lucas Ky. 4th
Patricia Madrid N.M. 1st
Harry Mitchell Ariz. 5th
Chris Murphy Conn. 5th
Lois Murphy Pa. 6th
Heath Shuler N.C. 11th
Peter Welch Vt. At-large

Check out that last name: Peter Welch. He's running for Bernie Sanders' seat in Vermont. Now, I know that Sanders is often referred to as a "self-described socialist," but c'mon, I think it's a little unfair to call him "red" now, isn't it?

All kidding aside, CQ asked the D-Trip about this:

When asked about this exception, DCCC spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg said Welch was included because he is considered a “strong Democratic candidate who promotes the party’s ideals.”

That's clearly an exception designed to swallow the rule - the DCCC can use this rationale to bail out laggards in any number of open seats. Now, I actually think Welch is a pretty worthy guy - the possibility of a spoiler third-party candidate could really screw us here. But I don't see why the DCCC can't just maintain two separate lists, one for offense and one for defense. Maybe I'm being picky and it just doesn't really matter.

I think this is actually a pretty good list overall. Clearly, the DCCC is helping out some of its strongest candidates (like Ron Klein and Lois Murphy), but they're also lending a hand to some mid-major challengers (eg, Chris Murphy, Mary Jo Kilroy), and have even included a couple of surprising races (Busanksy, Derby).

So how about this: Whom would you nominate to be on the next installment of the DCCC's Red-to-Blue list?

Posted at 03:25 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Comments

Nick Lampson - TX-22

What? It's my CD and I do not want to be represented by another republican after DeLay and Nick is a candidate that I'm actually on the same page with for almost every issue.

Posted by: trowaman at May 1, 2006 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't understand why Steve Filson (CA-11) is on the list. He has clearly generated almost no support for his own candidacy within the district and his response has been to start criticizing the Democrats who live there. And not surprisingly, this past weekend Filson's major primary opponent, Jerry McNerney, won the CA Democratic Party endorsement with 75% of the vote. Although I understand decisions were made about this Red to Blue program before this weekend, everyone paying attention to CA-11 has known for a month that McNerney was likely to get the endorsement. So why would the DCCC start funneling money to him now instead of waiting to see if he can win his own party primary? I mean, I can understand the DCCC wanting to give their preferred candidate a boost in a close primary. But right now they're effectively giving Filson's campaign a tow. Aren't there better campaigns to spend money on?

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at May 1, 2006 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

no they wont just bail out any dem challenger. welsh is running for a non-democratically held seat, so they are giving him money. nothing wrong with that

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 1, 2006 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Is there still buzz about a Progressive candidate running in VT-AL? I know Bernie was trying to dissuade a third-party candidacy, and by I guess I had thought the candidacy was scuttled. Even with a third party challenge, it strikes me as very unlikely that the most anti-war state in the union is gonna vote in favor of the state's hawkish National Guard Chairperson (?).

I had never even heard of Phyllis Busansky in FL-09 until seeing this list. How'd that district go in the 2004 Presidential election?

I hope this list expands (rather than retracts) as election season nears. There are several electable candidates in GOP-held districts not listed here.

Posted by: Mark at May 1, 2006 05:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

zuckerman said hes not running in vermont

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 1, 2006 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's great about Derby. We've got to show we can compete and win in rural CDs.

Posted by: goredsox at May 1, 2006 05:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN-06: Patty Wetterling or Elwyn Tinklenberg

The DFL endorsing convention is next Saturday (May 13th), after which there will be one candidate to unite behind. Both candidates have their strengths, which have been well documented in previous Open Threads on SSP. This will be a very winnable district for us in 2006 (especially if Michelle "Ann Coulter" Bachmann is the GOP candidate), and I hope it starts getting more attention from the DCCC and in the Blogosphere once we have a single candidate.

Posted by: Max at May 1, 2006 05:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If I had to pick one in Texas, TX-21 with John Courage. Of course, I'm totally biased, but if you asked me take that away, I'd still give you that answer.

Posted by: Karl-T at May 1, 2006 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not a bad list. For round two, I wouldn't mind seeing:

CA-26: Russ Warner
IN-02: Joe Donelly
CO-04: Angie Paccione
CO-06: Bill Winter (not necessarily because Tom Tancredo is especially vulnerable, but instead because he's a complete slimeball and deserves to feel uncomfortable)
KY-02: Mike Weaver (seems like a great fit for the district)
KY-03: Andrew Horne (hopefully he'll get the nomination)
MN-01: Tim Walz
NE-01: Maxine Moul (former Lt. Gov; fantastic fundraising)
NE-03: Scott Kleeb (seems exactly the sort of candidate to groom if Nebraska Democrats hope to cultivate a good bench for the future, and Democrats have came awfully close in this district before when it's been open, despite its heavy Republican lean)
NH-01: Paul Hodes
NY-24: Les Roberts or Mike Arcuri (both seem credible)
NY-29: Eric Freakin' Massa
NC-08: Larry Kissell (I was skeptical at first, but the grassroots seems to love him, Tim Dunn seems to like him, but he just needs a major lift in the institutional money game)
PA-08: Pat Murphy
PA-07: Joe Sestak
TX-21: John Courage (probably the only other seat besides Delay's that's worth watching this cycle)
VA-02: Phil Kellam (a credible candidate with deep local ties; MoveOn has targeted Drake in an apparently effective ad campaign)
WY-AL: Gary Trauner (could this really be the year that unpopular Rep. Cubin finally gets the boot?)

That was just a quick overview of where I'd spend my fantasy money as DCCC director. Obviously, I'd invest more in some races than others, and a few seats (NE and WY) may just be wishful thinking, but I think 2006 really needs to be the testing grounds for a 50 State campaign.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at May 1, 2006 06:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark: FL-09 is fairly conservative, but it's an open seat. Son is running to replace father.

Max: Excellent point. Though I personally have written very little about Tinklenberg vs. Wetterling, folks who are far more knowledgeable than I am have really elucidated that race in the weekly open threads. Go you!

Yoyo: Haven't seen anything that says Zuckerman is officially not running, though I know Sanders asked him not to. Got a link?

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 1, 2006 06:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TX-21 (John Courage) is definitely worthy of consideration, but I'd also want to include TX-14, with Shane Sklar. I think he may surprise people as he goes against Rep. Ron Paul.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner at May 1, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

davidnyc- dont have a link, but it was awhile ago. im sure zuckerman announced that sanders talked him into not running.

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 1, 2006 06:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On Tom Tacnredo i have sneaky suspision he could try to do a sucide Senate run in 2008 like Harris if Allard retires. That is assumeing he gets reelected of course allthough it's just a gut feeling no evidence of it. I do know Mark Udall (D-CO-02) is running.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 1, 2006 08:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hellofasandwich,

I think you're list is spot on, I think NE-03 is reaching too far but the rest all seem like realistic "wave candidates."

Again, I'd add TX-22 (Lampson) and TX-14 (Sklar).

Seriously, More focus needs to be payed online to TX-14 and TX-21, these are 2 grade A candidates running good campaigns. If the tide is right, both could win this fall.

Posted by: trowaman at May 1, 2006 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-02 - Phil Kellam
NY-29 - ERIC FREAKIN MASSA!

Both of these are rural, red seats that have incumbents in serious need of an ass kicking. Both are winnable and both have great Democrats running. More cowbell!

-Alec

Posted by: AlecBGreen at May 1, 2006 11:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well here is my list of districts that have a strong or somewhat chance of going from Red to Blue. I also added on Senate and Governors race. Let me know if i missed one or two.

AL-GOV
AK-GOV
AR-GOV
CA-GOV
CO-GOV
FL-GOV
GA-Gov
MD-Gov
MA-Gov
MN-gov
NV-gov
NY-gov
OH-gov
SC-gov

AZ-Sen
MO-Sen
MT-Sen
OH-Sen
PA-sen
RI-Sen
TN-Sen

AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-50
CO-04
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-09
FL-13
FL-22
IL-06
IL-10
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
IA-01
KY-03
KY-04
MN-01
MN-06
NV-02
NV-03
NJ-07
NM-01
NY-20
NY-24
NY-29
NC-08
NC-11
OH-01
OH-02
OH-15
OH-18
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22
VA-02
WI-08

Posted by: D in FL. at May 2, 2006 12:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is the year for Democrats. If we can't win this year, we can never win. Republicans control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. Both Congressional and Presidential approval ratings are hovering near their record lows. Bush is at 32%. Congress is around 20%. The Republican Energy Bill has been an absolute disaster for everyone except oil and gas companies. The Medicare bill has been a disaster for everyone but giant healthcare companies like United Health and Cigna. The budget has cut millions of dollars from social services and given them to large corporations in the form of tax breaks. We have a record trade deficit. We have a record budget deficit. The effects of global warming are already becoming apparent to scientists studying climate change. I could go on and on and on. If we can't pin this on the failure of our Republican leaders, than there is something wrong with this party or there is something terribly wrong with this country. The prospects for a total reallignment of the electorate have never been better.

The best indicator of our chances in November will be the outcome of the Special Election in CA-50. Francine Busby is facing Brian Bilbray. If Busby wins, it will set off a frenzy in the press. There will be thousands of stories about the GOP's doomed electoral chances and a democratic tidal wave. Corporations, PAC's, and lobbyists will all be forced to hedge their bets and contribute more to Dems and less to Republicans to protect their interests in the event of a democratic victory. I believe this election will be a harbinger of things to come in November. If we lose, we will not gain control of the House or Senate. If we win, we will gain control of one or both. I think the DCCC should pour millions into this district and the netroots must start fundraising for this immediately. It is not too soon to start. This country needs change now.

Posted by: SamKessler at May 2, 2006 05:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL - you forgot VA-Sen. Jim Webb is gonna hand George Allen his ass on a silver platter.

SamK - Great point about CA-50. I totally agree - we need to pour it on.

Posted by: AlecBGreen at May 2, 2006 05:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

BTW, Busby hit 47% on a recent SUSA poll. Almost there!

Races selected by my gut, instead of facts (ie sentimental reasons)
DE-AL: Dennis Spivack is a great candidate but with no experience. Mike Castle is president of the Main Street Republicans, so you can blame his crappy leadership for letting the GOP get so conservative. Castle's from Corporate Delaware, so he will be swimming in money. We need to make him spend it, rather than handing it to Gerlach and Weldon.

NY-3: Goddammit, I am so mad at myself for never seeing what a turd Peter King was when I lived there! David Denenberg is from my home town, and he needs the opportunity show Long Island voters the truth about this bootlicking rubberstamper pretending to be a moderate. Nassau county has gone democratic. Half of the population of Nassau resides in the Town of Hempstead, which is the base of NY-3 (albeit minus the poorer, blacker parts). King is NOT invincible!

Open seats we NEED to take:
Nussle's seat in Iowa
Beauprez's seat in Colorado
Boehlert's seat in New York

And finally, UPSTATE NEW YORK IN GENERAL!
We killed the GOP upstate in 2005! FUCKING KILLED THEM. If we're going to have any hope of taking back the House, we need to carry that momentum forward! We NEED to work as hard as we can to unseat Kuhl, McHugh, Walsh, Reynolds, and Kelly, in addition to the already mentioned NY-24 (Boehlert) and NY-20 (Sweeney). We might as well include Staten Island's Vito Fossella on this list while we're at it. NO NEW YORK REPUBLICAN IS SAFE. Repeat this to yourself. Oh, and the same goes for Conneticut, New Hampshire, and New Jersey.

Posted by: X Stryker at May 2, 2006 10:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

of course, it all depends on the outcome of the Republican bloodbath that is going on right now until the May 23rd primary, but the race for ID-01 will nonetheless be a possibility, in my own opinion . People automatically assume that it can't happen in a state as red as Idaho, but it is possible, and I'd really like to see a little more coverage on this race.

Posted by: mediaxhype at May 2, 2006 11:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was also surprised not to see Tim Waltz ( MN-01 ) on this list. He is doing good with fundraising, a good fit for the district and a Fighting Dem.

Posted by: Demrock6 at May 2, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Al Weed is a great red-to-blue candidate. The seat is currently held by Virgil MZM-Scandal Goode (recently added to the TPM Midterm Muckraker list) who was originally elected as a Democrat. Well he defected for a spot on appropriations and I think we should how him how we feel about that sort of thing.

Al's a fighting Dem and a farmer in a rural district in southside Virginia. He ran in 2004 and he's just secured the party's 2006 nomination with a fully functional and fully energized campaign machine. He raised more money than Virgil did in Q1, and given the tremendous independent voter population in the district and the incredible hardship it has seen under GOP leadership, I'd say Virgil's in for a fight this time around.

Posted by: msnook at May 2, 2006 10:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Al Weed is a great red-to-blue candidate. The seat is currently held by Virgil MZM-Scandal Goode (recently added to the TPM Midterm Muckraker list) who was originally elected as a Democrat. Well he defected for a spot on appropriations and I think we should how him how we feel about that sort of thing.

Al's a fighting Dem and a farmer in a rural district in southside Virginia. He ran in 2004 and he's just secured the party's 2006 nomination with a fully functional and fully energized campaign machine. He raised more money than Virgil did in Q1, and given the tremendous independent voter population in the district and the incredible hardship it has seen under GOP leadership, I'd say Virgil's in for a fight this time around.

Posted by: msnook at May 3, 2006 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, et al,

Zuckerman has declared he is not running. The problem finding concrete evidence stems from the fact that he has in fact taken down his website (zuckermanforcongress.com) containing his full statement on Feb 15, 2006. (You can go here, though, for evidence: politicsvt.blogspot.com/2006/02/breaking-news-zuckerman-will-not-run.html )

The basic politics here revolve around the recent growth in the stature of the Progressive Party in VT state politics. Zuckerman's whisper campaign, or whatever you call it, was almost certainly an effort to raise his name ID statewide and create a public perception that he is the leader of this new faction, which handed the Dems control of the State House in '04.

It should also be noted that the Dems gave him the chairmanship of the House Ag. Committee in exchange (he's an organic farmer), and he probably never wanted to give that up. You can be sure the Dems would not have been so friendly if he'd been such a fool as to go through with it.

But as it stands, he got what he wanted -- IRV considered by the State Senate, a lot of free press, and a continued position of influence. And Welch gets to breathe easier not having to face two fronts this fall.

Posted by: Bruorton at May 3, 2006 05:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment