Swing State Project

« OH-15: Internal (D) Poll Shows a Close Race | Main | CA-50: Kaloogian is a Liar »

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

CA-50: SUSA Poll Puts Busby at 45

Posted by DavidNYC

Survey USA has a new poll out on the CA-50 congressional race (likely voters, no trendlines):

Busby (D): 45
Roach (R): 14
Kaloogian (R): 12
Bilbray (R): 10
Morrow (R): 5
Uke (R): 5
Other: 6
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±5%)

What's interesting is that SUSA shows a better peformance by Busby than even her own campaign's poll did. However, the sample here is much more Democratic than, say, the recent Datamar poll. SUSA has a 46-38 GOP-Dem split while Datamar was at 54-33 (PDF). I'd like to believe that this poll means that Busby has a shot at clearing 50% on April 11th, but I still think there will be a run-off.

Also, none of these three polls can agree on the posture of the GOP field. Bilbray, for instance, had a strong lead in the Busby poll, a narrow lead in the Datamar poll, and a third-place showing in the SUSA poll. On this front, I won't hazard a guess as to the likely winner - it's just too up-in-the-air.

Posted at 02:50 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2251

Comments

I agree with David that its still likely to go to a run off. Does any one know which of the Republicans would be the strongest candidate. I looked at the websites of Bilbray, Kaloogian, and Roach. This Kaloogian guy seems like a douchebag, not only did he have that riddiculous picture that you posted above, but one of the pictures on the frontpage of his website is of him and Tom Tancredo. Bilbray is a former 3 term Congressman who lost to Susan Davis 2000, he's not a lobbyist. Roach is some rich guy who thinks he can buy a house seat.

After examining the top 3 GOP candidates, I think we should be hoping for Kaloogian. He's a complete moron. Although with him his xenophobic views may be able to turn out a group that wouldn't normally turn out. There's a good and bad side if Bilbray were to win. Obviously with him being a lobbyist, he'd be the easiest to tie to Cunningham. On the other hand he's the only one of the 3 who's proven he can win elections. Roach is a complete unknown. I don't know anything about the guy.

Posted by: safi at March 29, 2006 07:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually after a more careful look at his site, Roach is definitely the one we should want least. While he's extremely conservative, he comes off as a little more moderate and he's promised not to take any special interest money. Basically, he's squeaky clean.

Posted by: safi at March 29, 2006 07:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Surging at the right time. If the Rs keep beating each other up Busby may have a fair shot at winning on April 11th. To safi, I think most would say that if it goes to a runoff that Bilbray will be the toughest opponent. However, he has most recently been working as a lobbyist and has been trying hard to hide this fact from the voters. In the wake of the Cunningham scandal I'd bet that the word lobbyist comes with some very negative connotations.

Posted by: HMiller at March 29, 2006 07:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is a pretty amusing line of attack.

The first page, about Bilbray's "liberalism", doesn't actually include links to the votes mentioned (which is possible, since they're all on Thomas.loc.gov)

And the mailer is about how Bilbray caused a bunch of deaths due to not being tough on ephredra.

Posted by: RBH at March 29, 2006 10:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As someone who lives just south of the 50th, this is very good news if the polling results are correct. From my observations, the polling results reflect what I'm hearing and reading in the media as well as what I'm getting from individuals in the district in terms of the demographic breakdown of Busby's support. It feels right. And if it is accurate, this means that there is movement towards Busby! Will it put her over the 50% mark? Maybe, if 1)this movement is real and continues, 2)the non-Busby vote doesn't turn out to vote (a possibility given the growing disillusionment locally with Washington Republicans and the local intra-Republican mudslinging), or 3)a combination of both (wouldn't that be beautiful!).

The top 3 Republicans all have strengths as well as weaknesses as the Republican nominee if there is a runoff. Bilbray has support from the Washington, D.C. establishment because of his stints as a congressman and lobbyist; but he is starting to lose the surfer good looks he had in the 90s to age and is getting trashed heavily by Republican right-wingers for being too liberal (as if!) and being a lobbyist (yes, he is). Roach can self-finance; but he is a novice at being a candidate for office and has committed campaign violations which could be easily portrayed as a willingness to resort to dirty campaigning (not a good thing when ethics is a hot issue). And former state legislator Kaloogian, is the endorsed darling of the California Republican Assembly (the archconservative wingnuts of California that can determine Republican primary outcomes in this state) and was a major fundraiser behind the Gray Davis recall effort (so he has access to financing); but he is not catching fire in this district outside of his archconservative base probably because he is not a fit for this district that is more moderate than the district he used to represent. I say, bring any one of them on. This is looking more and more winnable for Busby!

The probable reason for no clear Republican frontrunner among the three recent polls is that all 3 candidates are tearing each other down overtly or covertly and exposing their weaknesses while Busby focuses on staying on message addressing the issues, especially ethics. I am enjoying the delicious humor of California Republicans once again forgetting the "11th Commandment" of their homie Ronnie Reagan: Thou shalt not criticize another Republican. Since they are apparently giving up the copyright on that effective advice, maybe we should sample the good parts of it for our purposes. "Thou shalt not criticize another Democrat..." Hmm, thinking of Lieberman, makes me willing to add, " - without damn good reason!"

Posted by: phonatic at March 30, 2006 01:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Phonatic, thanks for the great analysis. Just one quibble: According to what I found, the CRA endorsed Morrow, not Kaloogian. Can you firm the endorsement one way or the other?

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 30, 2006 09:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If the CRA really endorsed Morrow, that's probably a sign that they may lack clout, since Morrow got 10% of Republican votes in the SUSA poll (which is the same percentage of Republicans that Busby recieved in that poll)

Posted by: RBH at March 30, 2006 10:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Although CD-50 is a "republican" district, Barbara Boxer only lost there 143,776 to 144,088 (Jones).

Posted by: Predictor at March 31, 2006 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One factor in the Dem's favor assuming there is a June election in CD-50 is the fact that it falls on the statewide primary. As there is no major republican primary for statewide office except Maldonado vs Strickland for Controller, the big turnout will be on the Dem side for the Gov, Lt Gov, etc. contests. That will help Busby. I am not predicting Busby will win because as with the San Diego mayoral contest, the Dem placed first and the Gop won in the runoff. However if the rancorous Gop fight between Bilbray, Kaloogian & Roach continues...

From CQ Politics:
CA 50: Left-Leaning Blogs Put Pressure on GOP Hopefuls
By Rachel Kapochunas | 5:54 PM; Mar. 30, 2006

"Bloggers — the authors of the popular and widespread Web-based journals — have flexed their muscles in the run-up to a key special election in California’s vacant 50th District in and around San Diego.

In recent weeks, blogs have uncovered information that has forced two Republican candidates who are running in the April 11 election — former state Rep. Howard Kaloogian and businessman Eric Roach — to defend their campaigns to succeed former Republican Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, who resigned in December after pleading guilty to accepting bribes.

On Tuesday, the popular liberal blog Daily Kos noted that Kaloogian’s campaign was publicizing a photograph it said depicted a peaceful street corner in Baghdad, the capital city of Iraq. But the picture was actually taken in a suburb of Istanbul, Turkey: Daily Kos noted that Kaloogian’s photo included signs that were in Turkish, not Arabic, and people were wearing western-style clothing.

Daily Kos brandished the photo flap as evidence that Kaloogian’s campaign was hoodwinking voters into thinking that Iraq was much more peaceful than has been portrayed by the media and opponents of the current war.

The ensuing controversy forced Kaloogian to acknowledge that his campaign falsely identifed the photo — which he attributed to an unintentional mistake and nothing more.

“It was a mistake. I accept full responsibility for it,” Kaloogian wrote.

Kaloogian said the photo was taken during a July 2005 trip he and some radio talk show hosts made to Iraq that also included a brief stop in Turkey. The trip was organized by Move America Forward, a Kaloogian-founded group that says its mission is “supporting America’s efforts to defeat terrorism and supporting the brave men and women of our Armed Forces.”

Kaloogian’s campaign has removed the now-infamous photograph from its campaign Web site, though it has been reproduced on Talking Points Memo, another prominent left-leaning blog.

Kaloogian’s Web site now includes a photograph, taken from a distance, of what the campaign says is downtown Baghdad.

“Iraq (including Baghdad) is much more calm and stable than what many people believe it to be,” reads the caption that accompanied both photographs. “But, each day the news media finds any violence occurring in the country and screams and shouts about it — in part because many journalists are opposed to the U.S. effort to fight terrorism.”

Kaloogian’s statement also accused the media and “liberal political activists” of promoting the idea he was trying to mislead people. He asked prospective supporters of his campaign to contribute funds to “throw this back in their faces.”

Earlier this month, the San Diego Politics Blog forced Roach to address allegations that a former business partner was jailed for pedophilia. Roach blasted the attacks as an “absurd” guilt-by-association effort that was irrevelant to his campaign.

“To try to associate me with someone who years later became a disgusting pedophile is just ridiculous. It’s absurd,” Roach told radio talk show host Roger Hedgecock, a former San Diego mayor.

The special election to succeed Cunningham, who resigned after pleading guilty to accepting more than $2.4 million in bribes, has garnered national attention because of its unusual timing and the competitiveness of the race. CQ presently rates the contest as Leans Republican.

None of the 18 candidates — 14 Republicans, two Democrats and two third-party candidates — is expected to receive a majority of all votes and clinch an outright victory in the single-ballot contest.

It is widely expected that a June 6 election will be required, and that the contestants will be Democratic educator Francine Busby, who is expected to finish first in next month’s balloting, and the Republican who outpolls the other 13 GOP candidates. The winner will fill the remainder of Cunningham’s unexpired term."

Posted by: Predictor at March 31, 2006 03:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CRA isn't listing any endorsements for CD-50 on their site. Interesting that they are endorsing Strickland over Maldonado for Controller (not surprising).

Posted by: Predictor at March 31, 2006 03:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor: I definitely appreciate the info, but in the future, you can just link to long posts and copy just a paragraph or two. Thanks! :)

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 31, 2006 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks David, I was wondering if that was going to be a problem. My apologies.
CQ Politics is available to everyone on line, so I'll just provide a link when appropriate. Info coming from my subscription to Almanac of American Politics is not (can't link it, so I'll keep it brief).
Great site, keep up the good work!

Posted by: Predictor at April 1, 2006 02:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks, Predictor! Definitely keep the Almanac excerpts short - it's usually the proprietors of subscription-only sites who care most about seeing their work copied (naturally).

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 1, 2006 04:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

U R welcome. I always quote and credit AAP when I do so, and any other sources too.
:-)>
Given the Busby thread here, even if she does not hit the 50% mark in a few weeks, I'm hoping our big Dem Primary for Gov, LG, et al will help her out in June.
Know this is a hard district to turnover but given the current national situation and the Cunningham debacle and the nasty republican primary.....

Posted by: Predictor at April 1, 2006 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment