Swing State Project

Friday, October 27, 2006

TX-22: Divorced From Reality

Posted by James L.

From a Roll Call article (subscription-only):

The National Republican Congressional Committee has now spent more than $1.1 million on the write-in campaign being waged by Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), indicating that the GOP is making a definite play to hold the 22nd district seat. [...]

"Voters in the wealthy Houston suburbs are sophisticated voters, and our efforts are to make sure they don't get duped by a liberal Democrat who is posing as a conservative," a Republican strategist said Wednesday.

I'm so glad to see that the NRCC is flushing $1.1 million dollars down the tubes in a quixotic attempt to hold this seat. That's $1.1 million dollars that won't be used to defend precarious Republican holds over purplish seats like ID-01, CA-04, and WY-AL. Steven Benen at Midterm Madness sums the situation up a bit more realistically for the GOP:

Of course, GOP voters have to be more than "sophisticated," they also have to be patient enough to write in a very long name -- 20 characters, including spaces -- on an eSlate electronic voting machine, which happens to lack a keyboard.

Keep reaching for that rainbow, NRCC.

Posted at 02:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

TX-17: NRCC Retreats, Circles the Wagons in... Idaho?

Posted by James L.

Another quick 'n' dirty update (I've got a major midterm tomorrow): from the indispensable Burnt Orange Report comes word of a full-scale retreat by the National Republican Campaign Committee in TX-17, home of the perennially-targeted Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards:

According to five television stations in the DFW market, the NRCC on Monday canceled its planned television ad buy on behalf of Taylor. The cancelled Taylor buy was valued at over $1.5 million and was scheduled to run in the last two weeks of the campaign.

One by one, Republicans are cutting the lifelines of even their most top-tier challengers, and focusing on precarious seats in purplish states like... Idaho. Yes, Idaho, home of one of the most surprisingly competitive congressional races this cycle:

At the same time, the National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday began buying tens of thousands of dollars of television airtime across the district to run a last-minute advertising blitz beginning today, broadcasters said. Democratic candidate Larry Grant said Idaho airwaves will be flooded with attack ads targeting him because Republicans are panicking.

“Our understanding is the NRCC has produced a negative ad, and they bought almost $400,000 to run these ads against me,” Grant said. “I think most folks are going to understand they are in trouble.”

$400,000 on a district that delivered 70% of its vote for Bush in 2004. Chew on that one. With the Republicans losing confidence in Van Taylor's campaign in TX-17 (a district that is just as Republican as ID-01), how often do we see the NRCC nervous about their ability to win in districts that have delivered 70% of their vote to Bush?

For just a taste of how awful Idaho Republican candidate Bill Sali is as a politician, check out his statement from four years ago on his mental affliction that he curiously refers to as "brain fade".

Posted at 04:24 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, October 02, 2006

TX-22: Nick Lampson Calls on NRCC to Protect Exploited Children

Posted by James L.

David gave me the day off today, but I just can't sit in my seat and not share this news with you. On Friday, when the explosive revelations surrounding Republican Rep. Mark Foley's predatory relationship with young male pages--and the cover-up by the enabling and irresponsible House Republican Leadership--were revealed, Swing State Project took the lead in demanding that Mark Foley and the NRCC atone for their actions by donating the $2.7 million+ warchest that Foley had amassed for his re-election. I have no doubt that the NRCC would gladly suck up the $2.7 million warchest of a sexual predator, so it's time for our voices to be heard: Republicans must turn over their tainted money to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children or a similar credible charity that protects exploited children.

One strong voice that has emerged on this matter is former Congressman Nick Lampson, who originally founded the Congressional Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children (the same Caucus that Foley would go on to shamefully taint). Lampson has set up a great action page that helps you send a message to Republicans that using Foley's tainted $2.7 million to help protect vulnerable incumbents this fall is unacceptable:

Today, I sent a letter to my opponent asking her to join me in calling for the resignation of any member of congressional leadership who had knowledge of inappropriate email and instant messenger communications between shamed Congressman Mark Foley and underage pages working at the House of Representatives. I urged my opponent to donate the funds she recently received from Congressman Tom Reynolds, who has admitted he knew of the situation and did nothing about it and from any others in congressional leadership who had prior knowledge of Mr. Foley's actions to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

Now, we find out that the national Republicans are quick to condemn Congressman Foley, but are willing to accept the $2.7 million campaign war chest Mr. Foley has amassed. On Sunday, Carl Forti, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said "that the committee would gladly accept Mr. Foley's money or part of it to devote to House races." [New York Times, 10/2/06]

That's despicable.

Please join me in calling on Mr. Foley and the NRCC to donate his $2.7 million campaign war chest to the National Center for Missing Exploited Children.

Lampson is stepping up aggressively on this issue, and I'd like every single Democratic challenger to follow. I want Democrats to demand that their Republican opponents return any money that Foley donated to them. I want Democrats to demand that the NRCC not take ownership of the campaign warchest of a sexual predator. And furthermore, I want to see a lot more press releases like this one:

"Congressman Foley was a member of our Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus and even rose to chair that organization," Lampson said. "Because of our involvement in that caucus, I feel utterly betrayed by these revelations. This is simply disgusting, and the fact that Congressional leaders knew about the allegations and actively worked to cover them up is an outrage. Any member of congressional leadership who knew about these allegations and failed to act should resign from Congress immediately." (Emphasis added.)

Posted at 04:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

TX-22: New Poll Has Lampson (D) Way in Front

Posted by DavidNYC

There's a new poll out by Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal for the Nick Lampson campaign. Unfortunately, the polling memo (PDF) only has limited details (it doesn't say, for instance, whether we're using RVs or LVs), but I'll pass it along anyway:

Lampson (D): 43
Smither (L): 10
Write-In (Sekula-Gibbs): 14
Write-In (Other): 7
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4.9%)

One other heartening finding is that only 39% of respondents in a generic ballot question said they'd support the Republican. Sekula-Gibbs has a deep well to climb out of, and it looks like she's going to have a hell of a time doing it. But if you really want a full break-down on this survey, go check out Charles Kuffner.

Posted at 01:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Sunday, September 03, 2006

TX-22: Perry's Gambit Backfires

Posted by James L.

As you may know by now, the Texas Republican Party pulled a cute stunt last week when Gov. Rick Perry (R) called for a special election to fill Tom DeLay's vacant seat for the rest of his term, expiring in January 2007. At first glance, it seems clever--by holding the special on the same day as the general, it gives Republican write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs an actual ballot position, which theoretically should help remind Republican die-hards to scribble in Ms. Hyphen's name on the general ballot.

I say "theoretically" for several reasons. First of all, Nick Lampson is boycotting the special election. This is likely an effective strategy not only because it de-legitimizes the special election as a DeLay-Perry powerplay, but also because it will generate a certain amount of confusion. As Rick Hasen notes via the Hotline, Republican voters who are deterimined to vote for Secular-Gibs may cast a vote for her on the "special" ballot and think that their work is done. Furthermore, it won't just be Shelley on the special ballot. A relatively low filing fee has brought up a whole crop of other candidates contesting the special election. From the AP:

Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, backed by Republicans as a write-in candidate in the general election, is among those who filed by Friday's deadline for the special election.

She is joined by three other Republicans — retired Air Force Maj. Don Richardson; Dr. Hoa Tran Giannibecego; and former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman — and Libertarian Bob Smither.

I see this cutting in two ways. First of all, voters will see two ballots--one with Lampson and Smither (the general ballot), and another with Ms. Hypenated-Name and three other Republicans plus Smither (the special ballot). Voters who are determined to vote against Lampson may think that they're picking their anti-Lampson choice on the special ballot alone, and their work would be done. Secondly, for sharper Republican voters, having a whole crop full of special election candidates who aren't on the general ballot may actually increase the number of divided write-in votes. If the Republican aim was to increase Sekula-Gibbs' name recognition for the general ballot, their gambit may inadvertently cause a portion of Republicans to pick a name from the list of special election choices and scribble it in against Lampson on the general ballot (even though they haven't registered to run as write-ins).

The more I think about this one, the more I feel "Democrat Favored" is probably the more appropriate ranking over "Leans Democratic".

Posted at 03:47 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

TX-23, TX-10: Ciro Dropping Out; Ankrum Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Breaking news from the indispensible Burnt Orange Report (via e-mail):

Making the announcement at a San Antonio AFL-CIO meeting, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez has announced he will withdraw his bid for the new 23rd Congressional District against Henry Bonilla. That leaves Albert Uresti, Lukin Gilliland, Rick Bolanos, and Augie Beltran as the remaining Democrats in the race. Gilliland appears to be set as a potential new frontrunner among the challengers.

I don't know anything about Gilliland, but clearly BOR is the place to keep reading for more on this development. More here. Also from BOR, a shocking new poll from Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum (likely voters, no trendlines):

Ankrum (D): 42
McCaul (R-inc.): 51
Badnarik (L): 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Now, this is a robo-poll, from an outfit I've never heard of (Forensic Economic Data Consulting). But unless this poll is totally wacky, this is pretty stunning. I mean, this district is R+13, and Ankrum had raised all of $30,000 as of the last reporting period - 10% as much as the third-party candidate, Libertarian Michael Badnarik. I'm sure Badnarik is holding down McCaul's numbers, but still, this is an impressive showing for a third-tier Dem. And again, if this survey has any legitimacy whatsoever, it's clearly bad news for the GOP in general.

Posted at 10:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Friday, August 18, 2006

TX-22: Riddle Me This

Posted by James L.

Say you're the Texas GOP, and you want to clear the field for just one candidate in the open seat race created by Tom DeLay's slow crawl back into the bowels of the earth. Your only option is a write-in campaign, which is always incredibly exhausting and expensive to pull off. Among other things, your best bet would be to coalesce around someone with deep and broad name recognition--someone whose name voters won't be likely to forget how to spell in November. So, tell me, why would you pick a city councillor with a hyphen in her name, instead of someone with a high profile and an easy name to remember (like, say, Sugar Land mayor David Wallace)? Yeah, that's right; the TX GOP has decided to close ranks around Houston city councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs as their candidate of choice.

I can just see the scene now: cranky 70 year-old Republican die-hards trying to figure out if they're supposed to vote for Shellie or Shelly or Sekulagibs or Gibbs-Sekula or God knows what permutation pops up into their mind... before they decide to screw it all and vote for the Libertarian, Bob Smither, instead.

Oh, hey, speaking of that Libertarian: as the TX GOP, you're going to have to deal with fringe elements of your own party endorsing Smither as the only obvious choice on the ballot for rigid conservatives. On top of that, you'll also have to deal with the fallout from your behind-closed-gates endorsement decision with key elements of your local party's machinery in open revolt, mucking up your efforts to push Secula-Gibs (or however they want you to spell it):

However, in a letter to candidates Wednesday, Gary Gillen, chairman of the Fort Bend County GOP, was critical of the state party’s calling for a “gathering” of precinct chairs.
[...]
“In my opinion, the Republican Party leadership in Austin has chosen to organize local Republicans into a secret, exclusionary process that only reinforces the perception of a backroom deal and the perception we have something to hide,” Gillen wrote. “Anyone wanting to run should pay the fee and get your running shoes on."

In short, at this stage in the game, I'd say you're screwed.

Update: Swing State Project reader Patrick writes in to share that Sek-Ulagibz's hyphenated name is not her only disadvantage:

Her name sounds like...like...SECULAR!!!!!!

(*gasp*)

Update II:: Commenter "Rhymes With Right" chimes in with some pretty crucial info that renders much of this post moot:

Mind a little input from a GOP precinct chair/election judge who has been involved in the process ever since The Virginian screwed, blued, and tattooed CD22 this spring?

1) Under Texas law, every booth will have a list of write-in candidates hanging in it showing all write-in candidates for all offices. That was done with Nader in 2004.

2) The Texas standard for write-in votes is intent of the voter. It isn't a spelling test. Indeed, all the verious permutations of her name you proposed above would be sufficient to get a vote counted for Dr. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, barring the possibility that they find a Texan named Sheldon Secular-Godd to run against her. Indeed, based upon past practice, SSG would be sufficient to to get a vote counted in the good doctor's favor if such a hypothetical candidate does not exist.

This clearly makes the task for Secular Ribs a lot easier than I assumed. Still, this race is totally advantage: Lampson. With a Libertarian fracturing the Republican vote and even a sliver of Republicans voting for Wallace (assuming he stays on), Lampson is looking good. Of course, finding someone named Sheldon Secular-Godd to run on the ballot wouldn't hurt, either.

Posted at 12:33 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

TX-22: Cook Changes Rating to Lean-Dem

Posted by DavidNYC

From a Cook Report e-mail (also available on the site's front page):

TX-22 Open (DeLay) moves from Toss-Up to Lean D. Winning a write-in campaign is hard enough, but squabbling among Republicans in the district means that there may not be a consensus candidate for the national and state party to rally around. While this district retains a good Republican advantage – and there’s always room to be surprised in politics – the benefit of the doubt now goes to Democrat Nick Lampson.

This marks the first time, I believe, that Cook (or any pro prognosticator, for that matter) has marked a GOP-held House seat as anything better than a tossup. Obviously, the circumstances here are extremely unusual (and CQ notes that only four federal write-in campaigns have succeeded over the past 52 years). But I wonder if any other GOP seats will move into the Dem column over the next few months.

Posted at 06:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

TX-22: Bugman Exterminated

Posted by DavidNYC

Via Jesse Lee at the DCCC, the AP has the scoop:

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay intends to withdraw as a candidate for Congress, a Republican strategist said Tuesday, a step that would allow the party to field a write-in candidate in hopes of holding his seat.

The development came one day after Texas Republicans lost a court battle in their bid to replace DeLay on the November ballot.

There will be no Republican candidate to face Democrat Nick Lampson, a former House member.

Charlie Wilson pulled off a write-in victory in the OH-06 Democratic primary, and even though that was a decidedly smaller affair, it still cost a ton of money. I have to imagine that even in a deep-red district like this one, a general election write-in campaign would be extremely tough for the GOP. So is this race now Lean Dem? I don't want to get too giddy, but I'd have to imagine that it is.

Posted at 03:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati

Friday, August 04, 2006

TX-23: Looking More Blue Today

Posted by RBH

The results from the newest Texas Redistricting have come in, and Burnt Orange Report is there!

The re-re-redistricting affected the following districts: TX-15 (Hinojosa), TX-21 (Smith), TX-23 (Bonilla), TX-25 (Doggett), and TX-28 (Cuellar).

Hinojosa's new district is much more compact than the current district. Smith's district appears to be redder than before which will make things harder for John Courage. Doggett actually got a pretty good setup. He now has his part of Travis county, plus more of Travis County, and some assorted counties to the east. Cuellar's district adds all of Webb county, and subtracts Bexar county.

Early reports suggest that Bonilla is in a competitive district again. Of course, with an open primary just 3 months away, Bonilla has a pretty good advantage. No word on if there'll be any sort of stampede of candidates for Bonilla's district, or if Rick Bolanos will get an uncontested shot at Bonilla.

Election implications: Lightning might strike and somebody big might step in to face Bonilla, although I doubt it. Running for Congress now in Texas probably carries the same shot of victory as running a marathon on the fly. I do expect Cuellar and Doggett to get actual Republican opponents, but nothing serious.

Posted at 07:10 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, August 03, 2006

TX-22: Won't Get Fooled Again

Posted by DavidNYC

In a twist of fate on the level of a triple lutz, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that... well, just enjoy it:

A federal appeals court panel on Thursday refused to let Texas Republicans replace Tom DeLay's name on the November congressional ballot.

A three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a ruling by U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, who said in July that DeLay name had to stay on the ballot even though he quit from Congress and moved to Virginia.

As glad as I am to see DeLay have to deal with all of this, he will no doubt blame this turn of events on a Democratic conspiracy (two of the judges on the appeals panel were Dem-appointed). DeLay will rewrite history to say that they tried to keep him out, but couldn't prevent his victorious "return" - and his supporters will gobble it up. Republicans have gotten very good at playing the victim card lately, and DeLay can cast himself as both a victim and a martyr, the ultimate combo. In other words, Nick Lampson still has a very serious race on his hands, despite all his cash-on-hand. I think DeLay might be able to rake in plenty of pity money.

However, I think we're all hoping that DeLay can still be used as an icon of corruption, especially if his trial proceeds forward during the next few months. Hopefully he's still a potent symbol Republican excess.

(Hat tip: DCCC.)

Posted at 02:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati

Monday, July 31, 2006

TX-22: Stay Tuned...

Posted by James L.

Any day now, we'll find out whether the 5th Circuit of Appeals will allow former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson the opportunity to crush Tom DeLay, or whether he'll go head-to-head with the Texas Republican Party's hand-picked replacement. The appeals court has begun hearing arguments today:

A federal appeals panel indicated today that the ability of Republicans to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Delay on the ballot rests on whether there was "conclusive" evidence that he had moved to Virginia.

The three-judge panel of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals did not indicate when it would rule. But questions from the panel seemed to favor the Democrats' position that Republican officials could not declare DeLay ineligible for office based on residency prior to election day.

Republican lawyer James Bopp Jr. told the panel that DeLay had given Texas Republican Chairwoman Tina Benkiser enough evidence that she could make a "reasonable prediction" that DeLay would not be a resident of Texas on election day. That evidence included a change of driver's license and voter registration, plus a letter stating he had moved to Virginia.

Bopp said that gave her the power to declare DeLay ineligible to serve if elected and opened the door for replacing him on the ballot.

But Judges Pete Benavides and Edith Clement noted that a candidate like DeLay could move back to Texas by election day and be eligible for office. They said the U.S. Constitution would prohibit a state party official from throwing a candidate off the ballot in such circumstances.

"How can it be conclusive if you can always change your voter registration," Clement asked.

So far, so good. Of course, it'd be much preferable for Lampson to face DeLay, as his campaign warchest is being rapidly siphoned off to pay for his legal defense against his lingering criminal indictment.

Posted at 02:54 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, July 06, 2006

TX-22: No Escape For Tom DeLay

Posted by James L.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! -- The Godfather Part III

From the Houston Chronicle:

A federal judge ruled today that Republicans cannot replace former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay on the ballot for the 22nd Congressional District race.

U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, a Republican appointee, ruled that DeLay must appear on the Nov. 7 ballot as the GOP nominee for the congressional seat that DeLay abandoned last month. Sparks ruling was confirmed by Texas Democratic Party spokeswoman Amber Moon.

Wow. What was widely seen as a legal stall tactic to temporarily block the TX GOP from replacing Tom DeLay with a less radioactive candidate on the ballot this November has turned out to be the real deal. We'll have to wait and see what the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has to say about this, but a lot of damage is done already: if DeLay comes back to campaign in TX-22 (which he recently murmured that he's willing to do), not only will he have to reassemble his field and campaign team, but he'll also face an awfully awkward homecoming from his temporary escape to Virginia. What does it say to voters in his district when only a court order is enough to get him to step back into the state of Texas? It's not exactly flattering, to say the least.

Even if this decision is overturned by the appeals process, the Republicans will have lost months of valuable campaign time--time that genuine nice guy and proud Texan Nick Lampson won't waste.

Posted at 12:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, June 29, 2006

TX-22: Will Lampson Face ANY Opposition in November?

Posted by James L.

That's the question on our minds after hearing that former Republican Representative and Independent candidate Steve Stockman apparently failed to submit the 500 valid signatures required by Texas law to have his name placed on the November ballot:

Former GOP Congressman Steve Stockman (Independent) failed to qualify for the ballot in the CD-22 race. The Secretary of State determined petitions submitted by Stockman failed to produce the 500 valid signatures required by state law. "Someone who couldn't find 500 people in a [in a district of 600,000 residents] probably wasn't going to have much of an impact," joked a spokesman for former Congressman Nick Lampson (D). In related news, US District Court Judge Sam Sparks has yet to rule whether or not the Republicans will be allowed to replace resigned Congressman Tom DeLay on the ballot. If the court finds DeLay intentionally "withdrew" from the contest, the GOP will not be allowed to replace him -- and then only Lampson and the Libertarian nominee will appear on the November ballot. If DeLay, however, was found to have been "disqualified" because of his move to Virginia, the GOP will be allowed to name a new replacement nominee. Although the Judge did not yet rule, during this week's hearing he openly remarked that DeLay apparently "withdrew" from the race. Stay tuned.

Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming.

However, Stockman's disqualification raises the risks considerably for Lampson--if the GOP is able to field a replacement candidate for DeLay, the conservative vote won't be as fractured without a Stockman candidacy. Depending on Judge Sparks' decision, this could either be a dream come true for Lampson, or a nightmare. We'll find out next week. (Hat tip to Christopher Walker.)

Update: Oh, right; I neglected to mention that Lampson could be facing DeLay again. The way I see it, there are three possibilities here: Lampson could face DeLay again, Lampson could face no serious opposition, or Lampson could face the TX GOP's replacement candidate. Obviously, either of the first two options are vastly preferable.

Posted at 03:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

TX-22: Tomfoolery Backfires?

Posted by James L.

You've got to hand it to Tom DeLay. Facing abysmal chances in the November election against former Rep. Nick Lampson, DeLay took the opportunity to fall on his own sword by slinking off to Virginia in an attempt to give the TX GOP another window to nominate someone a little less, oh, you know, indicted. Even in (political) death, he never ceased to miss a chance to sock a Democrat in the stomach. You've got to give him that, at least.

Given that a party cannot nominate a new candidate after a primary election in Texas, DeLay chose a legal loophole: get the hell out of dodge so that he would be ineligible to run for Congress in Texas, rather than withdrawing his candidacy (which would have spelled the end for the Republican line on the TX-22 ballot). Texas Dems didn't take this sitting down, and filed a lawsuit to block the local GOP from scrubbing DeLay's name from the ballot. The conventional wisdom was that this was a stall tactic designed to irritate the local Republican cabal and prevent them from naming a challenger and raising funds for a few more precious weeks. However, based on the commentary of U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, presiding over the case, it looks like there's a strong chance that DeLay may be forced to keep his name on the ballot (or withdraw it at his discretion). From the Houston Chronicle:

A federal judge hearing a ballot dispute Monday involving former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay said he thinks that DeLay withdrew from the November election, indicating potential trouble for Republicans who want to name a replacement candidate.

"He is not going to participate in the election and he withdrew," said U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, who did not issue an official ruling after a daylong trial regarding DeLay's status as the GOP nominee for the 22nd Congressional District.

Jim Bopp, a lawyer for the Republican Party of Texas, disagreed, telling Sparks "there's been no withdrawal." Bopp said that instead, DeLay moved to Virginia, making him ineligible and triggering a state law that allows the party to select a new nominee.

Sparks also said that if political parties are allowed to replace primary election winners with more popular candidates, "the abuse would be incredible."

"It can happen in every race in this state for every office," Sparks said. The Republican judge said a ruling could come as early as next week.

From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

In his comments to lawyers, Sparks questioned whether a ruling for the Republicans might set a precedent allowing weakened candidates from both parties taking up short-term residency in other states so that a more formidable campaigner could be installed late in the game.

[...]

Sparks said he would review the histories of any similar cases and closely study the language in the Constitution before handing down his ruling. But he also said there was little doubt that DeLay had intended to withdraw from the race and that GOP leaders were hoping for a stronger candidate in the fall.

"Sometimes, you better watch out what you ask for," he told the GOP lawyer.

Sparks doesn't seem to be buying the spin that DeLay didn't withdraw. This could turn out to be a colossal embarrassment for national and state Republicans, and would have our homeboy, Nick Lampson, sitting mighty pretty.

(Hat-tip to Jesselee.)

Posted at 12:49 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Tuesday Poll Round-Up: RI-Sen, RI-Gov, TX-Gov, TX-21

Posted by James L.

Lots of polls lately to share. First off, there's some good news from Rhode Island, where Democrats are gaining momentum:

RI-Sen (Brown Univesity Poll, registered voters, February in parens):

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 38 (35)
Lincoln Chafee (R-Inc.): 37 (40)
Undecided/Decline to answer: 25 (26)
MoE: ±3.5%

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 55 (44)
Steve Laffey (R): 25 (29)
Undecided: 20 (27)
MoE: ±3.5%

RI-Gov (Brown, Feb. in parens):

Charles Fogarty (D): 39 (35)
Don Carcieri (R-Inc.): 44 (46)
MoE: ±3.5%

The same poll shows President Bush with a dismal 20% approval rating, and a mediocre 51% for Senator Chafee. Whitehouse is really making a race of this one, and don't believe any spin you may hear that this is an unwinnable race if Laffey doesn't knock off Chafee in the Republican primary.

And some noise from Texas:

TX-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, May in parens):

Chris Bell (D): 20 (18)
Rick Perry (R-Inc.): 35 (41)
Kinky Friedman (I): 21 (16)
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I): 19 (20)
MoE: ±4.2%

Perry is clearly weak, but this is just such a clusterfuck of a race. Troublingly, Chris Bell is only getting 44% of the Democratic vote and losing broad swaths of white liberals to Kinky Friedman's quirky indie bid. I understand the position of a Texas Democrat who's reluctant to rally around the Bell campaign after seeing hopeless defeat after defeat at the statewide level for a decade, but with the field this fractured, a consolidated Democratic base could be a threat to Perry.

TX-21: The John Courage campaign writes in to share some weak numbers on Congressman Lamar Smith (one of Tom DeLay's biggest allies in Texas):

In a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of 500 likely general election voters June 18-21, 2006, only 31% said that they would vote to re-elect Lamar Smith. (MoE +-4.4%)

This is an anemic number for an incumbent, as that number should on average be closer to 45-55%. The voters want change, and we've got a man of the people that is a teacher and a veteran who wants to be their representative.

Smith has a weak 49% personal favorability rating in this lean Republican district, and there's clearly room for Courage to mount a vigorous campaign against him.

Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, Rhode Island, Texas | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

TX-14: Terrible Re-Elects for Ron Paul (R)

Posted by DavidNYC

I admit I've been skeptical about claims that the race in TX-14 is a legit second-tier affair. But a new post by Charles Kuffner, covering the details of a poll taken for Shane Sklar (the Dem), might make start to reconsider:

Question: As things stand now, would you vote to reelect Ron Paul to Congress or do you think it is time to give someone new a chance?

Response: 33% Re-elect, 48% Someone New, 20% Undecided

Yes, it's an internal poll, and no, those 48% won't all go to Sklar - but that is seriously fugly for Ron Paul. Maybe these generic polls showing extreme dissatisfcation with Congress actually do mean something.

Now, in a straight-up head-to-head, Sklar gets crushed, 58-37. But he's only got 25% name rec, while Paul is at 88%. Sklar will need to raise quite a bit more money if he wants to get his ID up, but November is a long way off. And for Sklar, increasing his exposure is anything but a fool's errand, as that 48% figure for not-Ron-Paul indicates. Also, after the usual message-testing questions, the head-to-head turns into a 54-30 lead for Sklar. You never want to read too much into those sorts of things, but again, at least it shows room for growth.

Kuff agrees that it probably comes down to money for Sklar, and he thinks it'll take at least $500K to bump this race up to full second-tier status. One of the great things about Texas is that there are a lot of strong bloggers down there, led by Kuff himself, who's been blogging practically since the dawn of time (in Internet years). So we'll definitely have good intel on this race as it progresses.

Posted at 11:47 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

TX-28: Ciro's FEC Report Will Be Amended

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm told that Ciro's FEC report may have contained quite a few mistakes - to such an extent that Ciro actually has campaign debt, not any kind of surplus. I expect to see an amended report soon.

One thing that is in the current report is a $4200 donation to ActBlue. Ciro promised that, if there was no run-off, he'd donate the totals from his final online push to ActBlue, which deserves far more credit than it gets for making online fundraising simple and cheap. Ciro was true to his word, and helped ActBlue out after all the help they gave him. Kudos to Ciro for that.

Posted at 07:19 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: Ciro Rodriguez Still Has $330K Cash-on-Hand

Posted by DavidNYC

[UPDATE: It appears this post was based on a flawed campaign finance report. See here for more information.]

Yeah, the title is not a mis-print. Evidently, Ciro thought it would be wiser to save all that money for a run-off, which of course never happened. Is it 20-20 hindsight to carp about this now? I'm not sure. What I can tell you, though, is that Cuellar spent $1.1M on the race. Ciro spent a mere $422K. The campaign had to know it was being badly outspent.

A fair response here might be to say, What good would a run-off have been if Ciro had been flat broke? To that I can only observe that Ciro was doing far better in fundraising in the final weeks before the election. From 2/16 on, he raised $282K - Cuellar raised only $150K. If Ciro had held Cuellar to under 50%, I think that he (Ciro) would have continued his strong fundraising.

If anything, we knew (or should have known) that what Ciro really needed was more time, and a run-off would have given him some, whether he was broke or flush. You can't, as they say, take it with you. At least that $330K can now wind up in the hands of other deserving Democrats. Indeed, I daresay it had better.

(Hat tip: House Race Hotline.)

Posted at 03:47 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

TX Runoff Results

Posted by DavidNYC

With everyone (rightly) focused on CA-50, you might have forgotten that Texas held a run-off primary election today for a few races. A couple of these were somewhat interesting, and both bring good news.

In TX-Sen, Barbara Ann Radnofsky beat perpetual candidate Gene Kelly for the Dem nomination. Though Radnofsky has, charitably, a mega-super-uphill fight on her hands against incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison, she's at least a serious candidate and will make Hutchison sweat a bit. (Kelley is 80 years old and refuses to make public appearances. His main claim to fame is that he has the same name as the famous - and dead - dancer.)

Also, in TX-10, Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum beat Paul Foreman. This district went 62-38 for Bush, so obviously we have to be realistic here. Nonetheless, I think Ankrum, like Radnofsky, probably stands a decent chance of forcing Michael McCaul to get off his duff and spend some time campaigning.

Several other state races also had run-offs. You can get complete results here.

Posted at 11:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, April 06, 2006

TX-22: Lampson Supports Special Election, Perry Doesn't

Posted by DavidNYC

Man, did I read this one wrong. So it turns out that Nick Lampson is in favor of a quickie special election (on May 13th), while Gov. Rick Perry opposes one.

In retrospect, this makes sense: Lampson has been building up name recognition and a big warchest. If a special election took place a month from now, any Republican opponents would be seriously lacking in both. By waiting until November, the GOP can rally around a single candidate and get him - whoever he is - up to cruising speed.

And of course, the answer is that there won't be a special, because Perry holds all the cards. He's under no legal obligation to call one - as I noted previously, it's entirely discretionary. In media-whore parlance, I've flip-flopped on the issue, but, in real life, I've simply admitted I was wrong. I now see the virtue of Lampson's position - not to mention the fact that TX-22 will have to go without representation for the better part of a year under Perry's plan.

Posted at 07:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

TX-22: Any Special Election is Illegitimate

Posted by DavidNYC

Special elections ought to be held in special circumstances: If a candidate falls seriously ill, dies, or retires for a good reason early in an election cycle. When an incumbent uses legal loopholes to bail on his constituents late in the game, that most certainly does not qualify as an appropriate special circumstance.

Fortunately, Texas law recognizes that not all vacancies are created equal. The governor may choose whether or not to call a special election - holding one is not mandatory. Gov. Rick Perry must now exercise his discretion wisely and refuse to squander taxpayers' dollars on such a wasteful exercise. To do otherwise would be to blatantly serve the naked partisan purpose of forcing Nick Lampson, the Democrat, through two elections - and possibly three, since a special might require a run-off - in just a few months time.

Of course, I'm not naive - Perry will do whatever his Republican overlords tell him to do. Therefore, if he does call a special election, I think all Democrats - including Lampson - should boycott it completely. Don't run in it, don't vote in it, don't even talk about it. If the TX GOP wants to waste time and money on a special election, then we shouldn't accord the "winner" any legitimacy whatsoever. The real election - as it has been all along - is still in November, regardless of what the Texas Republicans try to do.

I realize this is a potentially radical and controversial path to take. But it's certainly far less radical than everything Tom DeLay has done to undermine democracy in Texas. Regardless of what DeLay does now, there only needs to be one election to determine who represents TX-22 in Congress, and that election will take place on November 7th, 2006 - and not a day earlier.

Posted at 06:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-22: Bugman Bugs Out

Posted by DavidNYC

That, of course, should have been my original title last night. Anyhow, some more legal analysis on how DeLay might be replaced, from Rick Hasen:

With news that Tom DeLay is withdrawing from his House reelection contest, the question is what happens now in his race. It appears that the following is the applicable Texas law (putting aside any caselaw that might affect interpretation of these chapters):

Under Texas Election code section 1.005(7), DeLay was running in a 'General election for state and county officers' [, which] means the general election at which officers of the federal, state, and county governments are elected." Section 145.031 et. seq. set forth the rules for "a candidate who is a political party's nominee in the general election for state and county officers except a candidate for president or vice-president of the United States." DeLay is the party's nominee in a general election for state and county officers and he's not a candidate for president or vice president, so these rules apply.

Under 145.032, DeLay can withdraw because it is more than 74 days before election day. If he withdraws, under section 145.035, his name is omitted from the ballot. Under section 145.036, the political party's executive committee can only fill a vacancy under limited circumstances (such as catastrophic illness), none of which seem to apply to DeLay. So this route does not look like it would work for DeLay.

Instead, reports suggest he will move from Texas, thereby becoming ineligible to serve. (See section 145.003 on declaration of ineligibility.) If he is "ineligible" rather than "withdraws," section 145.036 gives the party the right to name a candidate to fill the vacancy.

There are also rumors that the governor could call a special election. Under 204.021, "An unexpired term in the office of United States representative may be filled only by a special election in the same manner as provided by Chapter 203 for the legislature, except that Section 203.013 does not apply." (203.013 sets forth a timetable for the election.) Chapter 203 sets forth the requirement of a special election, the requirement of a majority vote (meaning a runoff will be necessary if no candidate gets a majority of the vote), etc. But this would only apply to the unexpired term. There's this provision that appears to allow a replacement to run for the full term, but only if the vacancy occurs after the general election. So even if the governor calls a special election that chooses someone to serve out the rest of DeLay's current term, that does not appear to affect the nomination rules for the upcoming general election.

Slinking off to Virginia, tail tucked between legs, utterly defeated. The true Tom DeLay reveals himself.

(Tip to Adam B.)

Posted at 09:00 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, April 03, 2006

TX-22: DeLay Retiring!

Posted by DavidNYC

Commenters at DailyKos are saying that CNN & MSNBC are reporting that Tom DeLay is retiring. Can anyone confirm?

UPDATE: The banner on CNN confirms it. Now, to brass tacks. Can DeLay be replaced? At first blush, the answer looks like "no." Here's why I say that. The one part of the Texas Election Code which covers replacement can be found here. There's just one problem: I don't think it's applicable to House races. That's because §145.036 is governed by §145.031, which says:

APPLICABILITY OF SUBCHAPTER. This subchapter applies to a candidate who is a political party's nominee in the general election for state and county officers except a candidate for president or vice-president of the United States.

A House seat would qualify as a "district" office, not a "state" or "county" office. Now, another section of the code, §145.091, does purport to cover all other races:

APPLICABILITY OF SUBCHAPTER. This subchapter applies to a candidate in a general or special election, except the general election for state and county officers.

However, this section of the code, while it permits for withdrawals, contains absolutely no provision for replacements. Yet I'm still baffled, because a number of the sub-sections that fall under the sway of 145.031 (which purportedly only applies to "state and county officers") specifically mention "district offices." This is the full definition of "district office":

"District office" means an office of the federal or state government that is not voted on statewide.

So maybe 145.031 applies only to state district offices? (There is no definition of "state office" in the definitions section of the election code.) That would mean that 145.091 governs federal district offices - a very strange way to do things. No matter what, this is all totally cockamamie. And it just goes to show you that when Republicans holler for judges to "apply the law as it's written," half the time you're left asking, "Well, what the hell does the law even say in the first place?"

So the real question is, did DeLay pull a Gallegly? I find that hard to believe. Then again, DeLay is accused of violating Texas election law, so maybe he's not too familiar with it. Somehow I doubt that Nick Lampson just waltzed into a freebie in TX-22, but who knows? I'm sure we'll know more as the night unfolds.

UPDATE: I think PantsB in comments just clarified everything. There is a specific definition for "general election for state and county officers," and it's a wee bit unexpected:

"General election for state and county officers" means the general election at which officers of the federal, state, and county governments are elected. (Emphasis added.)

So somehow, the phrase "state and county" includes "federal." Weird. Well, that would mean that §145.036 would definitely apply to DeLay, and a replacement can indeed be made.

Posted at 10:24 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (35) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati

Monday, March 20, 2006

TX-21: What Every Campaign Should Have

Posted by DavidNYC

This post isn't really about TX-21, but it's inspired by that race. The Democratic challenger - a Fighting Dem by the name of John Courage - has put out a prospectus on himself and his race. It's a fantastic document. It's very professional-looking, it contains tons of detailed information, and above all, it answers a lot of common questions in advance. Simply put, every campaign needs something like this. If you have one of these ready to hand or e-mail to potential donors, endorsers, etc., you'll just look a lot more serious, and you'll be taken more seriously, too.

UPDATE: At the request of the Courage campaign, I've taken down the link to the document. If you're interested in seeing it, try contacting them.

Posted at 12:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

TX-28: Post-Mortem Roundup

Posted by DavidNYC

A few of the post-mortems on last night's election:

Markos

Chris Bowers (part I)

Chris Bowers (part II)

Jane Hamsher

CQ Politics

If you've read (or written) any other good post-mortems, please let us know in comments. As for me, I'm not sure I have much to add right now, though I may post my own thoughts later.

I do want to offer my enormous thanks to Tracy Joan. Live-blogging last night's results was just one of the many things she did for Ciro and the netroots. Though she had many other duties on the campaign, she still managed to keep the blogosphere tightly involved through an endless stream of diaries, e-mails, IMs and phone calls. I doubt that the Ciro-netroots relationship would have developed as strongly as it did without Tracy there to foster it. She defines hard work and commitment - and she did it all in excellent good cheer.

I'd also be remiss if I didn't thank Ciro as well. In politics, you wind up supporting lots of Democrats simply because they have a (D) after their names. It was truly a pleasure to get behind someone who made you happy to lend that support. So, thank you, Ciro, and thank you, Tracy, for everything you've done.

Posted at 05:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: A Statement from Ciro Rodriguez

Posted by Tracy Joan

This morning Ciro Rodriguez released the following statement:

“Last night we didn’t receive the outcome we had hoped for. The end result was true to the intentions of Tom Delay when he carved out this district for his friend — geographic rivalries won out over a true discussion of the issues for working families.

I congratulate Mr. Cuellar on his victory, however, and I hold no bitterness or ill will.

I do hope, however, that he takes seriously the message sent by over 47% of the voters — and by a community of progressive donors from across the country — that a Democratic congressman’s first responsibility is to stand up for the needs of seniors, of children and of working families.

Especially in South and Central Texas, where so many mothers and fathers have sacrificed their whole lives for their children, and so many veterans have answered the call of their country, we need a Democratic congressman to put his personal political ambitions aside and take a stand for Social Security, for quality, public schools, and for affordable health care for all.

The driving force behind our campaign was a group of volunteers who took such a stand — students, retirees, and working people from all parts of the District. For their commitment and dedication, Carolina and I will be forever grateful.

And I believe I speak for all our supporters and campaign team when I say that we were profoundly touched by the thousands of regular working families from throughout the country who helped fund our effort with their checks of $5, $10, and $20. They looked beyond geographic and cultural differences and sent a message that we are all Americans and that we must stand and act together to reclaim our government.

As educators, that inspiration will forever stay with Carolina and I as we take the next step in our lifelong commitment to public service.”

Posted at 11:59 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Third TX Primary Results Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

[10:50 p.m.] Webb County's early voting results just came in (ie, not ballots cast today). They put Cuelllar into the lead for the first time tonight, 16,705 to 15,408.

[11:19 p.m.] (Tracy) We are still waiting here at the office for final totals.

[11:32 p.m.] An earlier comment of mine got over-written in the shuffle. I think it'll be a while before we get any more results in. But at this point, unfortunately, I don't see how Ciro can pull this one out. The bottom line is that, as I've often said, it's just damn hard to beat an incumbent.

[12:05 a.m.] (Tracy)

From Ciro to the netroots:

"As far as I am concerned we are in a run-off. We will be picking up our signs from the polls and re-using them in thirty days. Until we know exactly what happened today in Webb County, this race is not over.

"I wouldn't be here if I hadn't gotten the support of the online community. It's been overwhelming to see how people can make a difference, and make things happen by coming together, even if it an hour of blockwalking, a few phone calls or $20 and $40 dollars at a time. We must have the final word in who our leadership will be, not the special interests, and we must keep up this fight. I want to think the thousands who have given their time and resources to push this campaign forward.

"Thank you from the bottom of my heart for each and every kind word, dollar bill and one cent."

[12:09 p.m.] Very gracious words from Ciro. It's actually an hour later where I am on the East Coast right now, so I'm going to turn in. You're in Tracy's good hands for the rest of the night. (Thanks, Tracy!)

[12:30 a.m.]: In 2004 Webb results didn't come in until the next day. I am headed out of the office now and will check in later.

Posted at 11:58 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: Cuellar Improving in Every County

Posted by DavidNYC

Some bad news. With 189 precincts reporting, I compared things to last time out (2004). Henry Cuellar is performing better in every county in TX-28 compared to the previous race:

County	2006	2004	Change
ATASCOSA	29.27%	-25.92%	55.19%
BEXAR	-57.18%	-59.63%	2.45%
COMAL	-27.92%	-44.98%	17.06%
FRIO	19.63%	-7.87%	27.50%
GUADALUPE	-25.27%	-45.65%	20.38%
HAYS	-26.45%	-28.89%	2.44%
LASALLE	30.54%	14.34%	16.19%
MCMULLEN	69.41%	20.34%	49.07%
WEBB	???	68.27%	???
WILSON	-10.01%	-29.62%	19.61%
ZAPATA	70.70%	46.75%	23.96%

The first column (2006) is Cuellar's county-by-county margin this year. The second column (2004) contains his margins from two years ago. The third column shows the delta - how much Cuellar improved by. As you can see, he's done better in every single county this time out. I have to say that at this point, I'm not sanguine about Ciro's chances once the Webb Co. results finally come in.

P.S. This only looks at the margin between Cuellar and Rodriguez and doesn't include Morales or anyone else, for either year. And obviously, I'm relying on incomplete data for a lot of the counties in 2006, so things could conceivably change.

Posted at 11:39 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Second TX Primary Results Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

[10:03 p.m.] Up to 159 precincts now, but the results are not much changed. Unfortunately, Webb is still at zero, and many of the precincts which haven't come in yet are from pro-Cuellar areas.

I should add that a couple of members of the Band of Brothers are facing primaries tonight: Duane Shaw in TX-01 and Ted Ankrum in TX-10.

[10:10 p.m.] An aside: The Swing State Project just clocked in its 2,000,000th visitor ever a few minutes ago. We reached 1 million only six months ago (and it took us nearly two years to reach that mark). Thanks, well, a million!

[10:16 p.m.] Does this even make any sense? From the Laredo Morning Times:

Because of a technical difficulty, results from the Democratic and Republican primaries have been delayed.

The machine built to read the personal electronic ballots was incorrectly programmed, and as a result the votes must be extracted from flash cards attached to each machine.

I don't understand that second paragraph at all. The first half of the sentence refers to one machine, singular. The second half refers to multiple machines. What on earth is going on here?

[10:20 p.m.] Congrats to the SSP on the success - it's fantastic to be a part of that.

I know everyone is playing the waiting game, refreshing those pages like crazy. I am juggling these updates with requests from old media with requests from other candidates, who are running in local elections who have decided to spend their evening here with Ciro awaiting their own results. Also noteworthy are the dozens of union members who have been working these streets everyday to try and get the Bexar County vote out.

Ciro is getting ready to go live on the 10:30 news here in town. More from here when it happens.

Posted at 11:04 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

New TX Primary Results Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

[9:02 p.m.] The Dallas Morning News is declaring Chris Bell the victor in TX-Gov. At the moment, Tom DeLay has 64% of the vote in TX-22, while Van Taylor has 55% in TX-17.

[9:05 p.m.] DMN also seems to have faster results than the TX SoS. Here's the situation in TX-28:

Rodriguez: 7,754 (64.72%)
Cuellar: 3,351 (27.97%)
Morales: 875 (7.30%)

Precincts Reporting: 95
Total Precincts: 276

[9:16 p.m.]

Rodriguez: 7,928 (64.24%)
Cuellar: 3,509 (28.43%)
Morales: 904 (7.33%)

Precincts Reporting: 112
Total Precincts: 276

[9:23 p.m.] Well, well, well. Looks like DMN got a bit ahead of itself. They are now claiming they have results from just 66 precincts (not 112, as stated earlier). Meanwhile, the SoS site is at 98 precincts.

[9:32 p.m.] (Tracy) Ciro just walked in to a load round of applause. The crowd is chanting his name as we continue to wait for the rest of the returns. There are loads of cameras and it is standing room only in what is a very large headquarters. SOS is reporting 35.14% in - still no word from Webb County.

[9:34 p.m.] Okay, this is getting a bit nutty. This SoS page (for TX-28 only) reports 128 precincts. However, this page (which lists all Dem races) says 143 precincts have come in. Which to believe? The latter page lists the current totals as follows:

Rodriguez: 11,269 (56.40%)
Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%)
Morales: 1,408 (7.05%)

[9:40 p.m.] (Tracy) News out of Webb County continues to be confusing. There doesn't seem to be any word on when results will be coming through as technical difficulties persist.

[9:43 p.m.] The individual race page caught up and both now report 143 precincts. But man, that string of zeros after Webb County's name looks awfully, awfully... out of place. I'm reminded of the OH-02 special election, when Jean Schmidt's home region reported last, too. Remember this?

Schmidt led by less than 1 percent with 88 percent of the precincts in. But she must have felt secure in knowing that the only uncounted precincts were in Clermont County, her home.

Uh huh.

[9:43 p.m.] (Tracy) The Rodriguez campaign has a team headed down to Webb County including campaign counsel and representatives. While this is happening Ciro is addressing the hundreds of supporters who have gathered at our headquarters on the South Side of San Antonio. A supporter just called in as well and asked if the banks in Laredo were closed.

Posted at 10:02 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: The Returns

Posted by Tracy Joan

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

RESULTS [Updated 8:54 p.m.]

Rodriguez: 6,674
Cuellar: 3,051
Morales: 805

Precincts Reporting: 5
Total Precincts: 276

---

[7:30 p.m.] Some gossip:

According to Commissioner's Court sources in Webb County they are unable to report Early Voting because their systems are down.

Let's just hope Webb County doesn't wait to see the votes that they need to win before reporting. Locals claimed it has happened before.

[7:47 p.m.] I am sitting in a small war room, next to Chris Warshaw from DFA who spent most of the day working to Get Out the Vote for Ciro with DFA members here in the 28th.

[7:50 p.m.] Local news in Webb County are now reporting what you heard here, that their systems are down. Note: they use touch screen voting.

[7:53 p.m.] (Personal) I just got a call from Tim Tagaris, who showed me the ropes back in Ohio during the final days of Hackett's race, and I see Bob commenting here as well. These are two guys, along side the rest of the Hackett team trained me for this race and I hope I make them proud.

In the office the phone is ringing off the hook with calls from supporters, calls from poll watchers. Music is playing, food is everywhere and the mood seems generally festive.

[8:02 p.m.] Note that the numbers reporting are from early voting.

[8:11 p.m.] This place is starting to fill up. Early voting numbers are coming in now, we are still waiting to hear more about Webb County's voting systems.

[8:31 p.m.] So why does it take so long for results to come in? It takes about half an hour to shut down the machines. Plus, there are precinct comventions that begin after the polls close and this may delay the delivery of results to the county and then to the state if any of the folks attending the precinct conventions are also election judges.

(Personal): Just got some more good wishes from Joe Rospars on my first guest-blogging effort. Thanks, guys!

Also, note that I am NOT the spokesperson for the Rodriguez campaign tonight - I'm just a blogger capturing the excitement of this night, and following the results with you. Official statements will be clearly indicated as such.

[8:41 p.m.] More reports coming in about problems in Webb County. There might be a road trip in the near future.

[8:53 p.m.] Two representatives from the AFL-CIO have been sent to Webb County to deal with the developments.

Posted at 08:21 PM in Texas | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: Live from Ciro’s Campaign Headquarters in San Antonio

Posted by Tracy Joan

Note: All times are local (Central) time.

It is 5:45 and we have an hour and 15 minutes until the polls close on the first Primary of the 2006 cycle. You may have read some of my updates on this race over in the diaries at DailyKos or MyDD, but they have been pretty sporadic, so if you missed them, the short of it is that I have been working with Ciro Rodriguez in the 28th District since late January. Tonight, as we await the results of today’s Election, it’s my huge honor to bring you the results live from the campaign’s headquarters.

[6:58 p.m.] The polls are closing in a few minutes. Ciro is still out there, last I heard at a local high school poll site. The office is humming with preparations for an eveing watching the returns. Lots of food being prepared by our fantastic volunteers and a lot of tired feet. More very soon.

[7:05 p.m.] The polls are closed. Before I move to a new thread for the rest of the evenings results I want to make sure each and everyone of you know that this could never have transformed into the race it has become without the support of the progessive community. Not only has this campaign been the benefit of friends in national labor with the AFL-CIO and Change to Win Unions, the League of Conservation Voters, NARAL, DFA, MoveOn.org, and the thousands of readers who make the liberal blogosphere what it is day in and day out. That has been a crucial part of making this into a national cause and one that I know I am proud to be a part of.

Early vote numbers in Bexar County are starting to roll in.

(WITH 102 OF 102 PRECINCTS COUNTED)

Ciro D. Rodriguez. . . . . . . . 4,910 - - 73.39%

Henry Cuellar . . . . . . . . . 1,395 - - 20.85%

Victor Morales. . . . . . . . . 385 - - 5.75%

Posted at 06:24 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

TX-28: Live-Blogging the Results from Campaign HQ

Posted by DavidNYC

Guys, an exciting announcement: It's my pleasure to let you know that Tracy Joan Russo - who wears many hats for Ciro's campaign, chief among them netroots outreach director - will be live-blogging the TX-28 results straight from campaign headquarters tonight, here at the SSP. Polls close at 7pm local time - we probably won't know much for at least an hour after that. But Tracy will be covering it all. So please give her a warm welcome! And let's go Ciro!

Posted at 05:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Texas Primaries Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

The truth, in signage:

Apparently, thanks to the Steelworkers, over a hundred of these signs have sprung up throughout the district overnight.

There are actually several important primaries taking place in Texas today, not just TX-28. In TX-22, we get to see how much damage gets done to Tom DeLay in his primary. In TX-17, there's also a GOP primary to take on Democrat Chet Edwards. The lone Republican Iraq veteran running for office, Van Taylor, is a candidate in that race. There are also Democratic primaries for TX-Sen and TX-Gov (in the latter race, I'm a fan of Chris Bell).

Anyhow, you can get complete results here. Live results for TX-28 specifically are here. Go Ciro!

P.S. Polls close at 7pm CST (8pm Eastern).

Posted at 03:13 PM in 2006 Elections, Texas | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, March 06, 2006

TX-28: This Is Crunch Time

Posted by DavidNYC

This is crunch time.

All campaigns eventually reach this point - the final few hours before the election, when every staffer, volunteer and supporter pushes as hard as he or she can. Get-out-the-vote operations are in full swing, field is working around the clock, the remaining undecideds are aggressively being courted. The last few boxes of literature are cut open, battle plans for election day are finalized.

That's today. No one will sleep tonight.

Tomorrow, the already-frenetic pace will get ratcheted up several notches. Phone bankers will call people all day reminding them to vote. Van drivers will ferry people to and from polling places non-stop from morning till night. The candidate will try to shake as many hands as possible as the daylight hours wane. And as the last flyer is finally handed out and the last voter casts her ballot, everyone has left their hearts on the field. In campaigns, it's the only way anyone knows.

I'm talking about people like Beatrice and Lupe, two grandmothers - age 77 and 71 - who have shown up to HQ every day to make calls for Ciro. They should be an example to us all - never, ever, ever stop fighting! And it's not too late to help, not at all.

• If you haven't contributed yet, the campaign could still use your help. There's a strong possibility that this race will go to a run-off (which would take place on April 11th). If it does, Ciro will need plenty of cash. If there is no run-off, Ciro has said he'll donate all of today's proceeds to ActBlue.

• If you're anywhere even remotely near the district and you haven't yet offered to volunteer, click here to do so.

• If you can't volunteer in person, join the virtual phone-banking brigades. Calling is fun and easy.

• If you live in the district and aren't sure where to vote tomorrow, consult your local county election board (websites | phone numbers).

Like I say, this is crunch time - but we may yet go into overtime. So be ready for anything. But no matter what, tomorrow will be an exciting day.

Go Ciro!

Posted at 04:51 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | TrackBack (1) | Technorati

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

With the Texas primaries on Tuesday, I'm having a hard time thinking about anything but TX-28. Same with you?

Posted at 10:00 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0) |