Swing State Project

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Dems Hoping to Continue Statehouse Successes

Posted by DavidNYC

And continue is the operative word. Check out this extremely wrong-headed quote from someone who ought to know better:

Tim Storey of the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures said there could be a seismic swing in the control of state legislatures in favor of Democrats this fall because of an energized Democratic base. Legislatures currently are controlled nearly equally by Democrats and Republicans.

"For a number of elections, the Republicans have been eating [the Democrats] alive," Storey said. "Do the Democrats build some momentum in the other direction? I think they're optimistic they can do that."

The facts:

2003: Dem net gain of one chamber
Dems picked up NJ Senate
R's had no chamber gains

2004: Dems net gain of five chambers
Dems picked up CO House; CO Senate; IA Senate (to a tie); MT Senate; MT House (to a tie); NC House; OR Senate; VT House; and WA Senate
GOP gained GA House; IN House; OK House; and TN Senate

2005 & 2006: Dem net gain of eleven seats
No chamber flips since 2004, but Dems picked up additional seats in the 2005 elections (VA & NJ) and in special slections in MO, NH, PA, VA, and TX.

In other words, the Democrats have been kicking ass on this front over the past four years. Why someone from the NCLC - the pre-eminent organization devoted to state legislatures - could get things totally backwards is beyond me.

I would like to take this opportunity to praise the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (aka the DLCC) for their tireless work on these races. State lege races are usually unglamorous affairs, and the rewards for victory seldom receive the attention that national success does. Yet the DLCC plugs away, day after day, in the shadows of the DNC, DSCC and DCCC. They deserve a major pat on the back for all their successes in recent years.

And I'd also like to point out that a little help can go a long, long way in state legislative races. They are almost always low dollar races, so even small donations can make a big difference. ActBlue has activated state-level fundraising capabilities in twenty states now (many with the help of the DLCC), so it's even easier to donate to local candidates now. In fact, the DLCC even has its own ActBlue page with a list of targeted races. But if you aren't sure where you want to get involved, you can check out the DLCC's action list or donate directly to the DLCC.

Posted at 10:44 PM in 2006 Elections - State | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Friday, September 22, 2006

MA-Gov: Memo to Republicans - Be Careful What You Wish For

Posted by James L.

From Hotline on Call (Sept. 18):

Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Gabrieli plays the victim in a spot his campaign released Friday -- a day after Republican candidate Kerry Healey shot an attack his way before Tuesday's intense Democratic primary. [...]

And playing into the theory that Healey's initial attack was a sign that her campaign is more concerned about facing Gabrieli than state Attorney General Tom Reilly or Deval Patrick in the general election, the response ad quotes a Washington Post columnist who supports the idea.

If that was the intent of Healey's strategy, she must be happy with the way the result is unfolding: the Boston Globe reported Sunday morning that its new poll shows Patrick has opened a 21-point lead over Gabrieli and Reilly.

Um, better think again (SUSA, likely voters, May in parens):

Deval Patrick (D): 64 (34)
Kerry Healey (R): 25 (32)
Christy Mihos (I) 5 (17)
Other: 4
Undecided: 2 (17)
±3.9%

40 freaking points. Healey and her merry gang of MA state Republicans figured that progressive rising star Deval Patrick was an outsider who was not ready for prime time, and therefore beatable. Not so fast. Patrick rode a wave of positive campaigning and progressive advocacy that captured the hearts of the Democratic primary electorate despite being outspent by his wealthy establishment opponents. Looks like Massachusetts likes what it sees, too.

Good luck making up those 40 points, Kerry.

Posted at 06:57 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Friday, September 15, 2006

KS-02, KS-AG: What on Earth is Going on in Kansas?

Posted by James L.

So yesterday, SurveyUSA dropped a whole load of polls on statewide races in Kansas. Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius is performing very well, leading Republican Jim Barnett by 58-38. That's no surprise. Slightly more surprising are the polling results for the real statewide dogfight in Kansas this year: the battle for the Attorney General's office (likely voters):

Paul Morrison (D): 48
Phill Kline (R-Inc.): 51
MoE: ±4.1%

Paul Morrison was the Republican District Attorney of Johnson County (Kansas' most populous county with over 506,000 residents), who switched his party affiliation to Democrat last year and filed to run against Kline shortly thereafter, part of an emerging narrative in Kansas politics under Sebelius' deft stewardship. I haven't been following the dynamics of this race other than Kline's relentless anti-abortion related legal activity while in office. Needless to say, it seems that Kline's extreme conservative tack and Morrison's profile have put this race in play for Kansas Democrats. For comparison's sake, the other statewide Republican incumbents facing re-election battles this year (Secretary of State, Insurance Commissioner, and Treasurer) are all at or above 60%. I'm just thinking out loud here, but it's important to build up the Democratic bench in states like Kansas (and I will dismiss any arguments that converting moderate Republicans to the Democrats in Kansas is a bad thing), because, who knows, someday we could see Paul Morrison, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, or Governor. I'm thinking a few moves ahead here.

Even more surprising, though, is this internal poll on the congressional race in KS-02 (likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D): 42.5
Jim Ryun (R-Inc.): 41.2
Undecided: 16.2
MoE: ±4.6%

Here's the context:

Boyda said the only reason she was revealing the data was that on Thursday a front page story in the Kansas City Star downplayed her chances against Ryun because she was receiving little attention from the national Democratic Party in Washington, D.C.

[...]

But Ryun’s spokesman Black dismissed Boyda’s poll claims.

“If any legitimate, scientific polling firm found these results, the national Democrats would not have written off this race as reported by the Kansas City Star on Sept. 14,” he said.

State Sen. Anthony Hensley, D-Topeka, said the polling company Infomark Research has a reputation for accuracy, and cited several instances of how it predicted winners in close races.

“This is a winnable race for Nancy Boyda,” Hensley said.

I don't know anything about Informark Research, although they look legit after a cursory glance. But what the heck is going on in this race that could lead to it being a statistical tie? Nancy Boyda was the 2004 nominee in this district, and lost pretty decisively, 56-41, to Jim Ryun (fairing only slightly better than John Kerry did in the district, who lost by a 59-39 margin). So why on Earth should this district be more competitive this cycle? Ryun's record in the House is fairly analogous to Kline's record as AG--that is, extremely conservative. Could we really be seeing the results of this much-hyped intra-party rift between all-or-nothing social conservatives and more moderate Republicans in Kansas at play in KS-02 and elsewhere in the state, scoring some gains up and down the ballot for Democrats this cycle? Time will tell.

Posted at 05:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, Kansas | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

AK-Gov: What's Going on Here?

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from a Republican outfit (Dittman Research) in Alaska (voters, no trendlines):

Knowles (D): 29
Palin (R): 46
Halcro (I): 3
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4.4)

Sorry, no link - I got this one via PollingReport. Anyhow, Dittman is, as I say, a GOP firm, but their poll of the Republican primary was pretty accurate. They had it Palin-Binkley-Murkowski at 40-29-17. Actual results: 51-30-19, clearly with most of the undecideds breaking for Palin. So I'm not ready to write them off just because of their partisan bent - or even because the firm was recently raided as part of an FBI corruption investigation. (Allegedly, Dittman is not a target.)

So anyhow, what's going on here? I was initially very excited about the prospect of Tony Knowles getting into the race - despite his narrow loss in 2004 for AK-Sen, he's really the one marquee Democratic name in Alaska. Of course, the possibility of a matchup against incumbent Frank Murkowski was extremely appealing, but I figured Knowles would have a great shot no matter who his opponent was. Unfortunately, an earlier Rasmussen poll showed TK trailing Palin 51-38, and this latest survey is even more depressing.

One native Alaskan over on DailyKos told me that Knowles has been lying low, hoarding his bullets until after Labor Day. But Knowles probably has close to 100% name recognition, so I'm not really sure how much sense this strategy makes. The modern political playbook says you want to define your opponent negatively as early as possible, especially if you are the incumbent. While there is no incumbent now in this suddenly open-seat race, Knowles certainly has the stature of one.

According to this survey, the battleground is among independents, where Palin leads 44-24. (Both candidates have firm support among members of their own party, but this obviously isn't nearly good enough for Knowles in deep-red Alaska.) If Palin retains her "squeaky clean" image, then it seems like it'll be hard for Knowles to make many inroads. And every week he waits, the harder to gets to drive up her negatives. I only hope that he's got some good oppo on her - and that he's planning a media blitz right away.

Posted at 01:47 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alaska | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Gallup Releases Eight New Gov & Sen Polls

Posted by DavidNYC

And fortunately for us, TPM Cafe has handily collected them in one place:

Race	Dem	GOP
MN-GOV	Hatch (D) 44%	Pawlenty (R) 43%
PA-GOV	Rendell (D) 57%	Swann (R) 35%
OH-GOV	Strickland (D) 52%	Blackwell (R) 36%
PA-SEN	Casey (D) 56%	Santorum (R) 38%
OH-SEN	Brown (D) 46%	DeWine (R) 40%
MT-SEN	Tester (D) 48%	Burns (R) 45%
MO-SEN	Talent (R) 50%	McCaskill (D) 44%
MN-SEN	Klobuchar (D) 50%	Kennedy (R) 40%

In fact, it looks like TPM Cafe's Election Central is pretty serious about rounding up all manner of polls, so this may be a good resource to bookmark.

Posted at 01:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

GA-Gov, Lt.-Gov: The Big Day

Posted by James L.

We haven't really spent a lot of time over here at the Swing State Project discussing the upcoming elections in Georgia, but there are a couple of hot races between a few sets of Georgia peaches that are going down today. On the Democratic side, there's a nasty, nasty primary battle going on for the gubernatorial nomination between Secretary of State Cathy Cox and current Lt. Governor Mark Taylor. This race does not particularly enthuse me, mainly due to the fact that these two candidates have spent an estimated $6 million combined on attack ads against each other. It's really bringing back the ghosts of the recent California gubernatorial primary, where two statewide-elected Democrats slimed each other so badly that the Republican party has begun to recycle the same attacks now that the dust has settled. There's been some opinions in the blogosphere that primaries are a good thing, that they help strengthen candidates by forcing them to hone their messages and get serious about on-the-ground organization. And to a certain extent, that seems true; Jon Tester's overwhelming, feel-good victory in the Montana Senate primary against a popular Democrat holding a state-level office, for instance, surely helped legitimize him to national and state donors, pundits, and media. But what's the rule and what's the exception? Are brutal primary races like those in California and Georgia, where character assassination runs rampant, par for the primary course? How can you be sure that every primary attains the perfection of Montana's stiffly competitive, but polite style? I would submit that when the stakes are as high as elected office, there's no way to constrain the nastier competitive tendencies of human nature.

But if there's any saving grace in this, at least the focus is not so much on the Democratic primary today. Nope, it's not even close. If you've been following Jesselee's ongoing coverage at the Stakeholder, you'd know that it's the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor, which is taking place between conservative state Sen. Casey Cagle and Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed, that's drawing all the headlines. Reed, who helped orchestrate Saxby Chambliss' dirty victory over Democratic Sen. Max Cleland four years ago, is getting hammered by Cagle over his deep ties with corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff:

His opponent, conservative state Sen. Casey Cagle, has hammered Reed over his connections to Abramoff, the once-powerful Washington insider who in January pleaded guilty to fraud, tax evasion and bribery.

Specifically, Cagle has criticized public relations jobs in which Reed rallied Christian conservatives to thwart regional gambling initiatives. In some cases, that work was funded by competing gambling interests represented by Abramoff, according to the conclusions of a U.S. Senate committee.

"Reed said gambling is immoral, but took millions of dollars from convicted felon Jack Abramoff to help casinos," a recent Cagle TV ad said, referring to Reed's "record of betrayal."

I'm not sure how I should feel about this. A big part of me just wants to see Reed lose outright. What a fitting retribution it would be to see a man like Ralph Reed (whose ultimate goal is to run for President some day, most assume) lose a primary race for a down-ticket office in Georgia. How could his political career recover from such a starting block blunder, especially with the shadows of corruption hanging over his head?

On the other hand, should Reed squeak out a victory tonight (which is possible, given that the light turnout may skew towards his fundamentalist political base), Georgia Democrats can take a page from California Republicans and recycle some of Cagle's attack ads, which link Reed to "forced abortions and child prostitution" on Mariana Island through his efforts to block the implementation of U.S. labor and wage laws on the island, a U.S. territory. The ad goes for the throat, but Cagle may have waited too long to release it--he's spent most of the primary election season peppering the airwaves with typical soft biographical/values ads that lack any bite whatsoever. But with Cagle running neck-and-neck with the former front-runner Reed in the most recent polls, anything could happen today. However, an anemic Reed victory coupled with copying Cagle's script verbatim may seriously inject some life into the Democratic state-wide ticket in Georgia this year.

Posted at 11:37 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Georgia | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Tuesday Poll Round-Up: RI-Sen, RI-Gov, TX-Gov, TX-21

Posted by James L.

Lots of polls lately to share. First off, there's some good news from Rhode Island, where Democrats are gaining momentum:

RI-Sen (Brown Univesity Poll, registered voters, February in parens):

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 38 (35)
Lincoln Chafee (R-Inc.): 37 (40)
Undecided/Decline to answer: 25 (26)
MoE: ±3.5%

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 55 (44)
Steve Laffey (R): 25 (29)
Undecided: 20 (27)
MoE: ±3.5%

RI-Gov (Brown, Feb. in parens):

Charles Fogarty (D): 39 (35)
Don Carcieri (R-Inc.): 44 (46)
MoE: ±3.5%

The same poll shows President Bush with a dismal 20% approval rating, and a mediocre 51% for Senator Chafee. Whitehouse is really making a race of this one, and don't believe any spin you may hear that this is an unwinnable race if Laffey doesn't knock off Chafee in the Republican primary.

And some noise from Texas:

TX-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, May in parens):

Chris Bell (D): 20 (18)
Rick Perry (R-Inc.): 35 (41)
Kinky Friedman (I): 21 (16)
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I): 19 (20)
MoE: ±4.2%

Perry is clearly weak, but this is just such a clusterfuck of a race. Troublingly, Chris Bell is only getting 44% of the Democratic vote and losing broad swaths of white liberals to Kinky Friedman's quirky indie bid. I understand the position of a Texas Democrat who's reluctant to rally around the Bell campaign after seeing hopeless defeat after defeat at the statewide level for a decade, but with the field this fractured, a consolidated Democratic base could be a threat to Perry.

TX-21: The John Courage campaign writes in to share some weak numbers on Congressman Lamar Smith (one of Tom DeLay's biggest allies in Texas):

In a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of 500 likely general election voters June 18-21, 2006, only 31% said that they would vote to re-elect Lamar Smith. (MoE +-4.4%)

This is an anemic number for an incumbent, as that number should on average be closer to 45-55%. The voters want change, and we've got a man of the people that is a teacher and a veteran who wants to be their representative.

Smith has a weak 49% personal favorability rating in this lean Republican district, and there's clearly room for Courage to mount a vigorous campaign against him.

Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, Rhode Island, Texas | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, June 22, 2006

MD-Gov: Duncan Drops Out

Posted by James L.

From the Washington Post:

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan will announce this afternoon that he is dropping out of the race for governor, sources close to the campaign said today.

Duncan, 50, decided to end his quest for Maryland's highest office because he is suffering from clinical depression, sources said.

The Democratic nominee to face Gov. Robert Ehrlich will be Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley. Duncan was competitive enough to sap a lot of O'Malley's early momentum. The O'Malley campaign can now concentrate on beating Ehrlich, but it's sure tough to watch a candidate drop out under circumstances like these.

Posted at 01:58 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Maryland | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, June 19, 2006

Why Can't California Be More Like Montana?

Posted by DavidNYC

Montana:

Montana Democrats Barnstorm for Unity

After what could have turned into a divisive primary election, Montana Democrats rallied in four cities Friday to show that the state the party is united behind Jon Tester in what promises to be a no-holds-barred U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Conrad Burns this fall.

California:

Tension Builds Between L.A. Mayor, Angelides

Tension between Antonio Villaraigosa and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides surfaced Friday as the Los Angeles mayor declined to say whether he backed his own party's candidate to unseat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

It looks to me like Dems in Cali are living up an old credo: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. All I can say is, someone better bash a few heads in over on the left coast before Angelides and Villaraigosa give the media any more fodder for one of their favorite evergreens, "Dems in Disarray." Maybe we should send Brian Schweitzer over there to whoop some ass.

Posted at 03:29 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, California, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

California Results Open Thread

Posted by RBH

CA-GOV: 4.3% 13% 35.2% of precincts reporting

Phil Angelides (D): 217,622 (48.7%) 353,474 (47.2%) 523,260 (47.5%)
Steve Westly (D): 191,764 (43%) 327,723 (43.8%) 479,833 (43.6%)

CA-50 (To fill the unexpired term): 11% 35.2% reporting

Francine Busby (D): 17,329 (43%) 27,383 (44.4%)
Brian Bilbray (R): 20,448 (50%) 30,683 (49.8%)

All of the U.S. Congress Primaries in California

CA-50 (GOP Primary for the November election): 11.4% 35.6% of precincts reporting

Brian Bilbray (R): 11,071 (52.9%) 16,712 (54.6%)
Eric Roach (R): 3,347 (16%) 4,486 (14.6%)

CA-04, 11.5% 38.4% 75.3% of Precincts reporting:

John Doolittle (R): 14,054 (63.2%) 25,323 (63.7%) 44,244 (65.9%)
John Holmes (R): 8,186 (37.1%) 14,442 (36.3%) 22,981 (34.1%)

Charles Brown (D): 5,346 (46.3%) 10,534 (47.1%) 18,466 (46.3%)
Lisa Rea (D): 3,641 (31.6%) 7,103 (31.7%) 13,127 (32.9%)
Michael Hamersley (D): 3,563 (22.1%) 4,773 (21.2%) 8,334 (20.8%)

CA-06: 22% 42% of precincts reporting:

Lynn Woolsey (D): 31,997 (65.5%) 38,656 (65.7%) 45,339 (65.5%)
Joe Nation (D): 16,913 (34.5%) 20,244 (34.3%) 23,895 (34.5%)

CA-11: 0.8% 11.7% of precincts reporting:

Jerry McNerney (D): 4143 (56.5%) 9415 (52.6%)
Steve Filson (D): 2044 (27.9%) 5210 (29%)

Richard Pombo (R): 5269 (55.4%) 14,779 (61.9%)
Pete McCloskey (R): 3584 (37.6%) 7616 (31.9%)

CA-24: 10.5% 44.6% of precincts reporting:

Elton Gallegly (R): 5,609 (81.3%) 17,463 (80.8%)
Michael Tenenbaum (R): 1,292 (18.7%) 4,160 (19.2%)

Mark this one down for Gallegly in a landslide. Democratic nominee Jill Martinez has 10,703 votes so far running unopposed.

CA-36: 0% 36.3% of precincts reporting:

Jane Harman (D): 5,981 (69.5%) 13,621 (65%)
Marcy Winograd (D): 2,629 (30.5%) 7,353 (35%)

CA-51: 8.1% of precincts reporting:

Bob Filner (D): 4,336 (53.9%)
Juan Vargas (D): 3,329 (41.4%)

Posted at 12:04 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Iowa and Montana Results Open Thread

Posted by James L.

Here we go.

MT-SEN, 0% 2.42% 10.73% 33.22% 75.78% of Precincts reporting:

John Morrison (D): 1,140 (52.41) 2,631 (34.73) 6,463 (33.10) 15,932 (34.86) 27,735 (36.04)
Jon Tester (D): 969 (44.55) 4,801 (63.37) 12,588 (64.48) 8,657 (62.70) 46,517 (60.44)

These numbers (the 2.42% update) are from Cascade County, which is the Great Falls area. This is fantastic news for Tester, since Matt Singer wrote that "This is one of the few towns where a number of legislators have stayed neutral or are supporting John Morrison, so expect it to be a bit closer here."

Conrad Burns (R-Inc.): 1,500 (69.64) 4,814 (71.36) 10,027 (71.71) 24,746 (70.32)

Bob Keenan (R): 527 (24.47) 1,541 (22.84) 3,150 (22.53) 8,543 (24.28)

IA-GOV, 10.34% 48.67% 58.53% 67.11% 99.47% Precincts Reporting:

Mike Blouin (D): 4,771 (62.50) 29,758 (34.40) 33,084 (34.18) 37,066 (34.30) 49,900 (34.02)
Chet Culver (D): 1,597 (20.92) 31,527 (36.45) 35,995 (37.19) 40,816 (37.76) 57,178 (38.98)
Ed Fallon (D): 1,143 (14.97) 24,064 (27.82) 26,495 (27.37) 28,835 (26.68) 37,795 (25.77)

IA-01 (see IA-Gov link), 0.3% 42.81% 70.06% 100.00% Precincts Reporting:

Rick Dickinson (D): 900 (61.73) 6,274 (44.30) 7,158 (33.29) 9,937 (33.82)
Bill Gluba (D): 323 (22.15) 2,902 (20.49) 6,003 (27.92) 7,496 (25.51)
Braley, Bruce (D): 207 (14.20) 4,545 (32.10) 7,487 (34.82) 10,797 (36.74)

Bill Dix (R): 123 (41.84) 2,309 (40.11) 4,472 (28.29) 8,504 (37.53)
Mike Whalen (R): 113 (38.44) 2,424 (42.11) 8,930 (56.49) 10,985 (48.47)
Brian Kennedy (R): 58 (19.73) 1,024 (17.79) 2,407 (15.23) 3,173 (14.00)

Posted at 10:15 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, Iowa, Montana | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

New Mexico, South Dakota Results Open Thread

Posted by James L.

Hmm, okay, how about this: given everything else going on, I don't care what happens in New Mexico tonight. But if anyone's dying to discuss who the GOP nominee to take on Sen. Bingaman is this year, feel free to liveblog that baby in the comments. Anyway...

SD-Gov, 18.12% 67.99% Precincts Reporting:

Jack Billion (D): 5,455 (64.78) 16,616 (61.44)
Dennis Wiese (D): 2,966 (35.22) 10,430 (38.56)

The AP's calling it for Billion.

Posted at 09:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, New Mexico, South Dakota | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

SD-Gov: Voters Will Decide The Fate of The Abortion Ban And Of Rounds

Posted by RBH

From the group working to squash that law

Today, the South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families announced the filing of more than 38,000 signatures on petitions to repeal the extreme abortion ban passed by the legislature and signed into law by Governor Mike Rounds on March 6. Petitions will be filed with the Secretary of State at 2 pm today.

If at least 16,728 signatures are deemed valid, voters will decide whether the ban should become law. [Source]

I'm liking the odds of this getting on the ballot.

Signing the extreme ban did deflate the numbers of Mike Rounds. Rounds has moved up slightly, but not back to 70%. With this issue on the ballot, I wouldn't expect him to move back up to 70% job approval.

The primary to determine Rounds opponent for the fall is next Tuesday. The two candidates for the Democratic nomination are Jack Billion and Dennis Wiese.

From how I'm reading their sites, both Billion and Wiese are on the record as opposing legislation such as the bill signed this year.

Basically, it'll be a white hot election year in South Dakota, because the Dobson-esque groups will be working hard to try and get the ban retained, while the opponents will be working extremely hard as well. This could have a legitimate effect on the Governor's race when people who oppose HB1215 go out to vote against that bill and against Rounds.

We'll keep our heads up on the Governor's race, it could turn interesting soon.

Posted at 11:22 AM in 2006 Elections - State, South Dakota | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, May 29, 2006

AK-Gov: Knowles Is In!

Posted by DavidNYC

This is some great, great news: Former Gov. Tony Knowles declared today that he will indeed seek another term as governor. Knowles, a very popular figure in AK politics, previously served two terms in the governor's mansion but was term-limited out in 2002. However, Alaska's constitution permits a return to office if you skip a term, so Knowles is eligible to run again this year.

One sign of Knowles' strength is that one of the Dem gov candidates, Ethan Berkowitz, immediately said that he would drop out after Knowles made his announcement. The other announced candidate, Eric Croft, hasn't said anything yet, but hopefully he'll bow out as well. Either way, Knowles will have a straight shot to the Dem nomination.

On the other side, as RBH detailed a few days ago, current incumbent Frank Murkowski declared that he, too, will seek another term. This is also great news, given that Murkowski has a net approval rating of minus FIFTY. Murkowski is so unpopular that he's actually facing some stiff primary opposition from his own party. Whenever you can say that about an incumbent, you know it's bad news bears. Naturally, of course, we're rooting hard for Frank.

I should also add that a former Republican state rep, Andrew Halcro, is running as an independent. I've gotta believe that Halcro will draw more votes from the eventual GOP nominee than from Knowles. And Alaskans do seem to love independents - they gave Ross Perot some 28% in 1992, second only to Maine. I have no idea how much name rec this Halcro has, but he could stir things up.

Knowles doesn't appear to have a website up yet, but hopefully he'll launch one soon. (It may go up at the URL of his last campaign sight, presently down.) No matter who the GOP nominee is, Knowles instantly moves this seat into one of our top gubernatorial pick-up opportunities in 2006. Needless to say, I'm very excited about this race.

(Much thanks to RandyMI for alerting me to this story.)

Posted at 11:38 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alaska | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

AL-Gov: Baxley Opens Up 18-point Lead Over Siegelman

Posted by James L.

Finally, from a Press-Register/University of South Alabama poll (likely voters, April in parens):

Lucy Baxley (D): 45 (39)
Don Siegelman (D): 27 (34)
MoE: ±5%

Siegelman, a former Governor of Alabama, is currently embroiled in a trial for corruption and bribery charges. That it took this long for Baxley to bury Siegelman in the polls is fairly troubling. The winner of the primary (also on June 6--but if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the votes, there will be a run-off on July 18th between the top two vote-getters) will face either incumbent Republican Gov. Bob Riley or former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy "Ten Commandments" Moore. Riley is looking more and more like the shoo-in in the primary, but at least it looks like he won't be running against an indicted punching bag like Siegelman in the general.

UPDATE: A recent SUSA poll shows a much tighter picture (likely voters):

Lucy Baxley (D): 43 (39)
Don Siegelman (D): 43 (47)
MoE: ±4.4%

Both polls show Baxley with differing degrees of momentum, however. Such a wide discrepancy is pretty strange, but all the ink that's going to be spilled over Siegelman's ongoing trial in the next few weeks is clearly not the type of publicity he needs to push himself over the top.

Posted at 06:36 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alabama | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Friday, May 26, 2006

PA-Gov: New Poll Shows Swann Fumbling

Posted by James L.

From Rasmussen (likely voters, April in parens):

Ed Rendell: 52 (41)
Lynn Swann: 34 (44)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

If this holds, the PA Republicans are going to be up the creek this year, with the anemic performances of Swann and Santorum potentially dragging down Republican performance other races, including their most vulnerable Congressional seats (the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th).

Posted at 05:20 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

AK-Gov: Murkowski To Run For Re-Election

Posted by RBH

The field in Alaska gets slightly more certain

Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski this morning declared his intention to seek re-election, saying he wanted to continue the work on advancing a North Slope natural gas pipeline.

“The gas line is certainly the No. 1 priority of my administration,” Murkowski told the morning crowd.

In an e-mail message distributed from the governor’s personal e-mail account, Murkowski says he returned to Alaska from Washington, D.C. “to get Alaska moving again.”

But, when it comes to this race, there's one thing which will work against Murkowski, his low job approval rating. Ok, "low job approval rating" is being generous.

According to SurveyUSA, His job approval rating is 23%. His job approval rating has been "moving again", moving down to 29% in April. Murkowski's highest job approval number in the last year on SUSA was 34%.

And 35% of Republicans approve of Murkowski's job performance.

With a poll number like that, it's no wonder that Murkowski has a primary opponent that wants his job. But, Murkowski could make it though his primary using the power of name recognition. But, he may end up with a very low primary percentage.

The two Democrats running are Ethan Berkowitz and Eric Croft. I think Tony Knowles is still a rumored candidate. I don't know who is in front of the two candidates mentioned.

I think that Alaska is the hidden opportunity for Democrats this fall. Especially if Murkowski wins re-nomination.

Posted at 01:27 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alaska | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, April 20, 2006

2006 Attorneys General Races

Posted by DavidNYC

Once upon a time, party labels didn't matter all that much in state Attorneys General races - it really just came down to "your sheriff vs. my sheriff." This, however, has changed a lot starting in the 1990s. Nowadays, we can expect Republican AGs to be toadies to power, while Dem AGs vigorously fight on behalf of regular folks. This stark difference is all the more important given how egregiously federal agencies have abdicated their enforcement duties. To illustrate this point another way, you need look no further than the trailblazing career of Eliot Spitzer - a guy we could use a few more of.

And where will we get more Spitzers? The Democratic Attorney General's Association has provided us with a very handy map of this year's races where the AG spot is up for grabs:

Note that five posts on the map are controlled either by the governor or the legislature. Dems are safe in NH & WY, while Lingle is safe in HI. Murkowski, however, is vulnerable in Alaska, while Dem control of the legislature in Maine seems to be dicey.

As to specific races, I have to confess I don't know a whole lot about what's going on outside of NY. Here in the Empire State, Republicans had hoped that DA Janeane Pirro would be a better fit for the AG race, after her embarrassing departure from the Senate race. Turns out, a knave is a knave - Pirro is getting swamped by both front-runners for the Dem nomination, Andrew Cuomo and Mark Green.

There are so many other races to keep track of that I just haven't yet found room in my brain to add the AGs. But if you know anything about your local AG race, please tell us what's going on in comments.

Posted at 01:39 PM in 2006 Elections - State | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, March 06, 2006

SD-Gov: Now We've Got Some Ammo

Posted by DavidNYC

South Dakota Governor Mike Rounds couldn't hide behind technicalities this time. Today, he signed a law banning all abortions in South Dakota except to save a mother's life. Not her health, only her life. It also includes no exceptions for rape and incest. None at all. If some sick father rapes his thirteen-year-old daughter, this law would require that she bear his baby. There are no words to describe the disgust I am feeling right now.

The human rights, civic and legal dimensions of this appalling bill are being widely discussed throughout the blogosphere. The political angle, though, should not be disregarded. Don't get me wrong: I would much, much rather that this bill have never passed. It's a true abomination. But since it has - and especially since Rounds signed it - we now have the opportunity to use it against him.

As I wrote recently, the Democrats currently have no one running against Rounds this fall. This matters not because we have any realistic shot of beating him, but because right now, he's well-poised to take on Sen. Tim Johnson two years from now. However, if Rounds can be taken down a few pegs, that'll make him a less attractive candidate.

If SD Dems can't use this as ammo against Rounds, then I have no idea what would work. But this bill is truly an outrage, and it's already brought all kinds of negative attention to South Dakota. Rounds should be made to suffer for his complicity in this obscenity. The Dems need to find a candidate and start hammering.

UPDATE: HellofaSandwich offers up a suggestion: A comebacker for Tom Daschle.

Posted at 05:39 PM in 2006 Elections - State, South Dakota | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, March 02, 2006

AK-Gov: What's up with Tony Knowles?

Posted by DavidNYC

A couple months ago, I wrote about the possibility of Tony Knowles running for Alaska governor. (Knowles was a popular former governor who was term-limited out - but the limits no longer apply to him as he's now sat out a full term.) Chris Bowers' gubernatorial roundup got me thinking about this race once again, and I realized I haven't heard anything about what Knowles is up to.

This Anchorage Daily News article from Feb. 17th included the following tidbit in the final paragraph:

The wild card on the Democratic side is former Gov. Tony Knowles. The two-term governor has not said whether he plans to run, nor has he filed a letter of intent with the state that would allow him to begin raising money.

AK-Gov is really in flux right now. Super-unpopular (26-69 approval rating) incumbent Frank Murkowski hasn't yet announced whether he will seek re-election. If he does, he'll have to face several fellow GOPers in a primary. I'm thinking it's looking pretty bad for Murkowski now, considering that his own Lieutenant Governor is considering jumping into the race.

Meanwhile, another more recent ADN story (Feb. 24th) mentioned this nugget toward the end:

Told by a reporter that some Democrats would like to see former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles vie for his seat, Young said he would take that fight in a heartbeat.

"I guarantee you I (would) beat him, and then he's dead politically forever. That's it," Young said.

Knowles couldn't be reached for comment Thursday afternoon.

This might, of course, just be wishful thinking on the part of Alaska Democrats, who must be bloody sick of Young after 34 years in Congress. Moreover, I doubt that Young is in any way vulnerable right now - at least, not in the way Murkowski so clearly is. I don't think this would be a wise race to enter for Knowles. If he does want to think about Congress, he might want to wait a bit. He's not a young man, but he is ten years younger than Young (who is 73, and surely must be thinking about retiring soon). Moreover, Sen. Ted Stevens (who is ten years older still, 83) may retire at the end of this term in 2008.

As to this year's Governor's race, though, Knowles really needs to make up his mind soon. It's not fair to the Dems already running in AK-Gov to keep them on tenterhooks, as they almost certainly would have to drop out if Knowles enters. On the flip-side, donors are probably playing "wait-and-see" with Knowles and may not contribute to the current candidates if TK doesn't clearly state he's not running. Personally, I like Knowles a lot and I hope he does jump in. But I'd like to know what's what soon.

Posted at 11:17 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alaska | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, February 23, 2006

SD-Gov: Lone Dem Candidate Drops Out

Posted by DavidNYC

The only Democrat running against super-popular South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds has dropped out. Ron Volesky says it was due to money (he has virtually none, while Rounds has over a mil), and I'm sure that's part of the reason. But I'll bet that Rounds' 72-23 approval rating (sixth-best in the nation) had something to do with it as well.

I'm sure you're asking why you should care about a gubernatorial race we were never going to win in the first place. It actually gets back to Rounds' lofty approval rating. Argus Leader columnist David Kranz explains:

Influential players in the Democratic Party didn't have great hope to topple Rounds anyway, but their mission was different from Volesky's.

This wasn't about winning.

What Democrats need more than anything is a candidate who can ruffle Rounds a bit, remove the polish from his political exterior so that he will be less-inclined to challenge Sen. Tim Johnson in 2008. That was Volesky - the perfect candidate.

Republicans around the country already say they are or will be working hard on Rounds to run against the incumbent Democratic senator.

In other words, chess, not checkers - to see the importance of the SD-Gov race this year, you've got to look a few moves ahead. Losing a Dem senator in a red state will make it much harder to ever re-take and hold the Senate. After Daschle's loss in 2004, we can't afford to see Johnson go as well. (And remember, Johnson won in 2002 by barely 1% - just 500 votes out of over 330K cast.)

All hope is not lost, though. While the people Kranz talked to are not optimistic, the news article I linked to does toss out some possible names. And, interestingly, while Rounds is very popular, he's actually had a hard time getting a number of his proposals past the legislature (even though it's dominated by members of his own party) and has even had some vetoes over-ridden. That suggests at least some vulnerabilities. Rounds may yet be taken down a notch or two before this is all over.

UPDATE: Of course, how could I miss the obvious? Both D. in FL and Mark in comments point out the white elephant in the room: South Dakota's extremely restrictive abortion legislation, which will soon appear on Rounds' desk. He'll probably be compelled to sign it into law, and from that point on, all hell will break loose. The current bill bans all abortions (except when the mother's life is at risk) - it doesn't even contain an exception for rape victims. Rounds realizes the political thicket he's wading into, even in South Dakota - he vetoed a similar bill two years ago on purely technical grounds (which are rectified in the current legislation). Since even some Republican legislators oppose this bill, I have to imagine a Democrat could make some hay out of it.

Posted at 06:53 PM in 2006 Elections - State, South Dakota | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, February 16, 2006

MA-Gov: Reilly and Patrick Tied

Posted by DavidNYC

From UMass Lowell (likely voters, Sept. in parens):

Patrick: 40 (18)
Reilly: 40 (49)
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±5%)

Lotta movement for Patrick over the past half-year. But can you believe that Mass. hasn't had a Dem governor since - wait for it - Michael Dukakis? I sure as hell hope that changes this year, but unfortunately, this poll also shows a much tighter general election race - much tighter than other polls, that is. Reily beats Kerry Healy just 43-42, and Patrick is at 40-38. A Suffolk Univ. poll from just a couple weeks ago gave Reilly a 15-point lead over Healy (and Patrick a seven-point margin). What gives?

Posted at 12:46 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, February 09, 2006

NY-Gov: Bill Weld, Liar

Posted by DavidNYC

"Flip-flopping" is the media's derisive term for what normal people call "changing your mind." It's an entirely different matter, though, when you change your mind but pretend you haven't. Of course, politicians do this now to avoid being labelled a flip-flopper - they want to act like they've upheld the ultimate shallow media virtue, consistency (causing Emerson to smugly cross his arms up in heaven). Problem is, you commit a much worse (and real) sin: You're now a liar.

And Bill Weld, who aspires to lose the New York gubernatorial race, has done just that.

March 2nd, 2004:

ADVOCATE: So are you saying you now support same-sex marriage?

WELD: I have read the opinions in the case, and while they are all thoughtful, scholarly, and serious, I do believe the case was correctly decided.

Dec. 5th, 2005:

NY OBSERVER: I'm sorry, didn't you support the Massachusetts court ruling that validated gay marriage in Massachusetts?

WELD: No. No. I said that you can't repeal it by a statute, which is quite true as a matter of law.

What a kowtowing wretch, sacrificing his support of equal rights for gays in a feeble attempt to gain the endorsement of the Conservative Party. Bill Weld was praised in the past for what appeared to be a courageous effort to buck the Republican establishment on gay equality. Now, he's backed down - and lied about it.

The Log Cabin Republicans extolled Weld for his support of the Massachusetts gay marriage decision just last August. I wonder if they'll say anything about Weld's latest flip-flop and lying cover-up.

Posted at 09:42 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

IL-Gov: Yikes! Blago Looking Weak

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Rasmussen (likely voters, no trendlines):

Blagojevich: 37
Topinka: 48
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Judy Baar Topinka is the GOP's strongest candidate, but she still has to weather a primary before she takes on incumbent Dem Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Nonetheless, this poll looks very bad for Blago. Of course, it's just one survey and we don't have trendlines, so I'm not about to start wigging out. But given how devastated the IL GOP is, it's sad to think that this seat might be in any danger at all.

(Thanks to RandyMI.)

Posted at 02:11 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Illinois | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

MA-Gov: Reilly Has Lead Over Patrick

Posted by DavidNYC

Independent primary polls seem to be all too rare. Fortunately, Suffolk University has given us one for the Dems running for MA-Gov (registered voters, no trendlines):

Tom Reilly: 39
Deval Patrick: 30
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Suffolks says that Reilly once had a forty-point lead, but that was a year ago, so I'm not including that as a trendline. Both men beat the likely GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, though Reilly's margin is quite a bit bigger. He wins 47-32, while Patrick wins 39-32.

However, Reilly has much higher name recognition (35-33 favorability, and an additional 25% who've heard of him but have no opinion), while Patrick is at 19-11-33. In other words, only 8% of respondents said they've never heard of Reilly, while 38% said that about Patrick. If Patrick can close that name reco gap, then Reilly is probably in trouble - something which will no doubt delight many netroots activists.

P.S. Props to Suffolk for releasing extensive crosstab info. Also, good work on framing the name rec questions - I like being able to know the split between "no opinion" and "never heard of the guy."

Posted at 10:46 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Saturday, February 04, 2006

NY-Gov: Pathetic

Posted by DavidNYC

Oh man, this is just sad:

As William F. Weld runs for governor of New York this year, his campaign has put a new spin on the old political rule of having a positive message.

Campaign aides have significantly altered two newspaper articles on his Web site about his bid for governor, removing all negative phrases about him, like "mini-slump" and "dogged by an investigation," and passages about his political problems.

Also removed were references to a federal investigation of Decker College, a Kentucky trade school that Mr. Weld led until he left to run for governor last fall; the college collapsed into bankruptcy weeks later amid allegations of financial aid fraud. And criticism of Mr. Weld by a former New York Republican senator, Alfonse D'Amato, was removed.

I think LarryInNYC has it exactly right:

One wonders -- is there still time for Jeannine Pirro to switch from the Attorney General's race to the Gubernatorial? If so, she'd be the first candidate to complete the hattrick -- failing to be elected Senator, Attorney General, and Governor in the same year!

Too funny.

Posted at 12:41 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

VA-Lege: Dems Pick Up Another Seat in Special Election

Posted by DavidNYC

Democrat Mark Herring won a special election to VA's state Senate tonight. What makes this especially welcome news is that the seat was formerly held by a Republican, so this counts as a pickup for us. I believe the margin in that chamber is now 23-17. Virginia's on a roll - excellent work, guys!

Posted at 08:50 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Special Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

NY-Gov: Golisano is Out

Posted by DavidNYC

So bazillionaire businessman Tom Golisano has decided not to run for governor. While Golisano was never a threat to Spitzer, his personal fortune would have allowed him to cause all kinds of mischief. With a gang of true nobodies now vying for the GOP nomination, Spitzer will be able to husband his resources and spend more time campaigning for down-ticket candidates.

Posted at 12:46 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, January 26, 2006

NY-Gov: Spitzer Supports Gay Marriage, Suozzi Doesn't

Posted by DavidNYC

Tom Suozzi:

He also opposed gay marriage but supported a civil unions law for same-sex partners.

Eliot Spitzer:

He countered by saying that, as governor, he would introduce a bill to legalize same-sex marriage.

Posted at 02:38 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

CA-Gov: Arnold's Opponents Lose a Little Ground

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Rasmussen (likely voters, mid-Dec. in parens):

Angelides: 39 (44)
Schwarzenegger: 41 (40)

Westly: 40 (46)
Schwarzenegger: 39 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Arnold's favorability margin improved somewhat, though his head-to-head numbers didn't. What's strange about this poll is that both Westly's & Angelides' overall name reco seems to have dropped. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they were unsure about Angelides, while only 26% said so in December. Westly, meanwhile, went from 30% all the way to 49%. This probably explains why their top-line numbers also declined.

I don't have access to the crosstabs because I'm not a Rasmussen subscriber, but double-digit shifts to "unsure" (almost 20% in Westly's case) seem really wacky. This may just mean there was a skewed sample in either this poll or the previous one. Since Rasmussen has pledged to poll every major race every month, we should be able to tell which one was accurate come February.

Posted at 09:20 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

OH-Gov: Montgomey (R) Dropping out of Race

Posted by DavidNYC

Republican State Auditor Betty Montgomery is dropping out of the race for Ohio governor. That leaves Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Attorney General Jim Petro to compete for the nomination. (In a recent Rasmussen poll, she performed the worst against the only Dem candidate, Rep. Ted Strickland.) Montgomery is instead going to seek the AG nomination (shades of Pirro), an office she once held but was term-limited out of in 2002.

(Thanks to Earl in Ohio.)

Posted at 12:12 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, January 23, 2006

NY-Gov: Spitzer Taps Patterson; Nassau Lege in Disarray; Golisano Filing

Posted by DavidNYC

First, Eliot Spitzer has asked state Senate Minority Leader David Patterson to be his "running-mate." I put that phrase in quotes because in NY, there are (ridiculously) separate primary elections for Gov. and Lt. Gov. (They run on one ticket in the general.) So it's conceivable that Spitzer would win the nomination while his favorite choice for second-chair loses. In fact, this happened in 1998, when Peter Vallone's preferred choice, Clyde Rabideau, lost to Sandra Frankel. At the time, though, Vallone didn't command nearly the power that Spitzer does now, and the gubernatorial nomination was much more hotly contested. So I think Spitzer's endorsement is likely to carry the day.

This is really all just pure politics, though. The Lt. Gov. has no important duties in NY except to replace the Governor in the event of incapacity or removal from office. So finding the ideal Lt. Gov. is really mostly a matter of creating some kind of perceived balance on the ticket. Eliot's obviously going for ethnic, not geographic, diversity - Patterson is black, but also hails from Manhattan. Patterson also has a pretty compelling bio (read the NYT story for more).

NYCO raises one angle not covered in the NYT story (which itself reads almost like a bloggy tea-leaf reading exercise). Patterson has been heavily involved with the Democratic effort to retake the state Senate - a goal which is tantalizingly within reach. This is of enormous importance because if the Dems can retake and hold the Senate, and if Spitzer can win a second term in 2010, we will be in a commanding position to shape redistricting for the 2012 elections. I imagine, though, that Patterson would not leave the Senate without ensuring that his efforts are in good hands.

Anyhow, in some other related news, Tom Suozzi is seeking to govern the whole of New York State, but he can't even seem to govern his own county these days. A couple of rebel Democratic county legislators, working with the Republicans, have shut down the Nassau legislature. If Suozzi can't handle a couple of wayward Dems - including one goon who's thrice filed for bankruptcy, lied about serving in Vietnam and even lied about graduating college - then how can he hope to command respect in Albany? The point, of course, is entirely academic. Suozzi isn't going to beat Spitzer - the last Q-Poll had Eliot up 72-8 (yes, 8).

Finally, the Daily News is reporting that Tom Golisano is about to jump in on the Republican side, and he may spend up to $125 million of his own money. Kind of sad that he wants to waste so much money on a losing effort (he's spent enormous sums before, only to lose three times in a row), but hey, it's his cash.

Posted at 04:19 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, January 19, 2006

PA-Gov: Swann Surges Against Rendell

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Rasmussen on PA-Gov (likely voters, Nov. in parens):

Rendell: 45 (50)
Swann: 43 (36)

Rendell: 46 (47)
Scranton: 36 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ed Rendell is the incumbent Democratic Governor. The Republicans are Lynn Swann, a former star received for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Bill Scranton, a former Lt. Gov. Swann just formally announced his candidacy a couple of weeks ago and may be benefitting from the media coverage. The stability of the Rendell-Scranton numbers suggests, at least, that Rendell is not to blame for Swann's surge.

Here's my question to Pennsylvanians: Rendell is the consummate pol's pol and strikes me as unlikely to make too many obvious mistakes. But does Swann have what it takes to be as slick on the campaign trail as he was on the gridiron? Or is he coasting on star power and name rec now, only to get taken down once things heat up?

Posted at 11:19 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Saturday, January 14, 2006

NY-Gov: Now It's Too Late

Posted by DavidNYC

Just the other day, I suggested that Tom Suozzi could still back out from his stupid, politically suicidal plan to challenge Eliot Spitzer for the gubernatorial primary. Well, now it's too late. Ala Jeanine Pirro, he's not exactly off to a smooth start:

"That's good policy stuff I just gave you. Eliot's been running for a [expletive] year and he hasn't -- " Mr. Suozzi stopped himself at that point, then asked if the comment could be excluded from this article. However, there was no prior agreement in place to allow Mr. Suozzi to select his remarks.

If Suozzi sticks it out until September, his only friends left will be the greedy Wall Street Republicans who are bitter that they got caught behaving improperly by Spitzer. But at this point, Suozzi doesn't seem like someone whom any sense can be smacked into. This is going to be a long, stupid, ugly, pointless primary, with an outcome as clear today as it will be on election day. Sigh. What a waste.

Posted at 02:53 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, January 12, 2006

NY-Gov: Tom Suozzi's Brain

Posted by DavidNYC

So Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi thinks he wants to challenge Eliot Spitzer. Here are possible scenarios for Suozzi, with my estimated likely outcome percentages:

1) He beats Spitzer in a primary. Ha ha.

2) He loses embarrassingly. 75% chance.

3) He loses, but by some arbitrary margin which insiders and the media agree means that he "did surprisingly well" and "raised his profile across the state." 25% chance.

Don't forget that no matter what the outcome, he will earn the undying ill will of many if not most Democrats throughout the state. I'm probably over-estimating Suozzi's odds of nailing #3, but in any event, that's his best-case scenario. But what does that even get him? In other words, where does he go with his newly-enhanced profile? Here are his options, and how viable they each look to me:

• Primary challenge again to incumbent Governor Eliot Spitzer in 2010. Whatever.

• Primary challenge to Senator-for-Life Chuck Schumer in 2010. Uh huh.

• Primary challenge to Spitzer's appointed replacement for Hillary Clinton (should she become President), presumably in 2010. Suozzi certainly won't be Spitzer's appointee. Bleak.

• Vie for Hillary's senate seat in 2012, possibly against Hillary herself. Ugh if it's Hillary. If it's an open seat, it'll be a lively primary, and Suozzi will be six years away from his crowning achievement... a primary loss to the incumbent governor.

Suozzi's choices, in other words, suck, no matter what. But what I should really say is that any overly ambitious New York politician not named Spitzer, Schumer or Clinton will have to cool his or her heels for quite a few years yet to come. There just aren't any good opportunities to move up the ranks (except for Rep. Anthony Weiner, who is poised for a strong NYC mayoral run in 2009).

Suozzi is manifestly impatient, to the point that it's very dangerous to his own dreams. Any run against Spitzer, as I say, would lead to a harsh and permanent backlash against him from many quarters. Moreover, he's already behaving in damaging ways - allegedly courting an endorsement from Republican (!) Tom Golisano, and receiving loud backing from Home Depot CEO & bigtime winger Kenneth Langone (who harbors a grudge against Spitzer).

Politicians do dumb stuff all the time. Most of the time (perhaps sadly) those stupid mistakes can be overcome. Tom Suozzi is about to embark on a different kind of mistake, though - the kind which can't be repaired or forgiven, and which will never be forgotten. I think his ability to damage Spitzer is mercifully quite limited, but I hate to see this kind of ridiculousness regardless. It's not too late to back out. I still maintain he should challenge Peter King in NY-03 (Suozzi lives in King's district). I hope he changes his mind.

Posted at 01:59 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

HI-Gov: Do Dems Finally Have a Candidate?

Posted by DavidNYC

On the good side: The Dems may finally have a candidate to take on Republican HI Gov Lindle Lingle. Though he's still mulling his choices, former state Sen. Randall Iwase says "every fiber of my being wants to run for governor." That's a lot better than the usual wishy-washy stuff you hear from candidates contemplating a run for higher office.

On the bad side: Iwase's been out of office since 2000 - that's the better part of a decade, now that we're into 2006. And I think Derrick DePledge (writing in the Honolulu Advertiser) gets this one pretty much right:

Without personal wealth or solid commitments of state or national fundraising, a candidate with no statewide name recognition, like Iwase, would have to build an extensive grass-roots network of support to be competitive against Lingle.

Iwase is not a strong candidate - certainly, at least, compared to, say, Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Still, like I say, at least we may have someone.

(Thanks to Taegan Goddard.)

Posted at 11:44 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Hawaii | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

VT-Gov: Douglas With a Big Lead

Posted by DavidNYC

Jim Douglas, the Republican Governor of Vermont, holds a large lead over his Democratic opponent, former state Sen. Scudder Parker, according to Rasmussen (likely voters, no trendlines):

Parker: 31
Douglas: 54
Undecided: 11
(MoE: 4.5%)

Frustrating, given how Democratic Vermont usually is. It's hard for me to see how Parker might break through at this point - Douglas is very popular (65-26 approval rating, good for 8th out of 50, according to SUSA). And ethics scandals currently devastating the national GOP are likely to leave most Republican state officials in the clear. I hate to be a pessimist, but barring some unforeseeable major changes, the VT governor's mansion may well be out of reach for us this year. Fortunately, the governor only gets to serve a two-year term, so we'll get another crack at Douglas before long.

Meanwhile, independent Bernie Sanders is cruising in his bid to replace Sen. Jim Jeffords. So it looks like the House race will be Vermont's most interesting election this year. Sanders, by the way, is backing Democrat Peter Welch, and is advising left-wing third party candidates to avoid jumping into the race.

Posted at 10:16 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Vermont | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

ME House: Legislator Leaves Dems

Posted by DavidNYC

So a state legislator in Maine has bolted the Democratic Party. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be news except for the fact that this now leaves the Maine House in a tie between Republicans and Democrats. (The upper house is held by the Dems, as is the statehouse.) Maine reps are up for re-election this fall. Mainers: Can this setback be reversed? Or is it a worrisome sign for the future? (This is the third Dem to become an independent in the past year.)

Posted at 05:22 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Maine | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

MN: Despite Pawlenty's Games, Dems Win Two State Lege Races

Posted by DavidNYC

Jerkass Governor Tim Pawlenty, who apparently views participatory democracy as a game, recently scheduled a special election two days before Thanksgiving. In a bid to out-do himself, he then scheduled another special election for two days after Christmas - ie, today. This was all done in an effort to suppress Dem turnout. Guess what? He failed in November, and he failed again in December. From a DLCC press release (no link):

Tonight, Democrats were victorious in two special elections in Minnesota.

The decision by Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty to schedule two special elections during the holidays - a move many view as politically motivated - did not sto