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Tuesday, March 07, 2006
TX-28: Cuellar Improving in Every County
Posted by DavidNYCSome bad news. With 189 precincts reporting, I compared things to last time out (2004). Henry Cuellar is performing better in every county in TX-28 compared to the previous race:
| County | 2006 | 2004 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATASCOSA | 29.27% | -25.92% | 55.19% |
| BEXAR | -57.18% | -59.63% | 2.45% |
| COMAL | -27.92% | -44.98% | 17.06% |
| FRIO | 19.63% | -7.87% | 27.50% |
| GUADALUPE | -25.27% | -45.65% | 20.38% |
| HAYS | -26.45% | -28.89% | 2.44% |
| LASALLE | 30.54% | 14.34% | 16.19% |
| MCMULLEN | 69.41% | 20.34% | 49.07% |
| WEBB | ??? | 68.27% | ??? |
| WILSON | -10.01% | -29.62% | 19.61% |
| ZAPATA | 70.70% | 46.75% | 23.96% |
The first column (2006) is Cuellar's county-by-county margin this year. The second column (2004) contains his margins from two years ago. The third column shows the delta - how much Cuellar improved by. As you can see, he's done better in every single county this time out. I have to say that at this point, I'm not sanguine about Ciro's chances once the Webb Co. results finally come in.
P.S. This only looks at the margin between Cuellar and Rodriguez and doesn't include Morales or anyone else, for either year. And obviously, I'm relying on incomplete data for a lot of the counties in 2006, so things could conceivably change.
Posted at 11:39 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati
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Comments
Very depressing.
Obviously, we'll have the Diebold crowd harp about electronic voting machines first and foremost, and I'm not discounting fraud (certainly not in SOUTH TEXAS, of all places), but the picture is grim. What really went wrong for Ciro? The loss of incumbency? Or was Cuellar actually personally appealling to these voters?
Posted by: HellofaSandwich ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 7, 2006 11:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
1) It's extremely hard to beat an incumbent.
2) It's hard to rev up an entire campaign in 6 weeks.
Posted by: DavidNYC at March 7, 2006 11:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
U.S. House, District 28 In: 69%
Ciro Rodriguez, D 15,408 45.0%
Victor Morales, D 2,145 6.3%
Henry Cuellar, D (I) 16,705 48.8%
Posted by: JJ at March 7, 2006 11:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
well, that's not over 50% then. That's good.
Posted by: VirginiaBelle at March 7, 2006 11:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I was wondering if your statistics take into account th presence of a third candidate in this primary? If not the results can be skewed when comparing to the 2004 results.
Posted by: humphrey at March 7, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/dem1race5.htm?x=0&y=0&id=352
Isn't it funny how 0 percent of precincts are reporting in Webb County but Cuellar got 8,145 votes? Wow, 8,145 with 0% reporting....How Schmidtesque.
Posted by: Kyle Raccio at March 8, 2006 12:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As I noted, my table does not include third candidates. Morales' vote totals are only about 6% right now and probably don't make much of a difference either way. Bottom line is, the exact numbers aren't so important (for the purposes of this post). What matters is that Cuellar is definitely doing better in every county, with or without Morales.
Posted by: DavidNYC at March 8, 2006 12:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Never mind my above comment. That's early voting.
Posted by: Kyle Raccio at March 8, 2006 12:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment