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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

OH-18: We're Gonna Need a Bigger Poster

Posted by DavidNYC

If Bob Ney is the poster-boy for Abramoffian corruption in the House (and you thought it was Tom DeLay!), then, as Jesse Lee says, we're gonna need a bigger poster. All of these stories are from just the last two days:

Rep. Ney Becomes Example in Abramoff Probe [AP]

Plea Deal Ties Ney to Second Tribe [Roll Call] (sub. req.)

Ney’s Troubles Are Mounting [Roll Call] (sub. req.)

If you want to see excerpts from the two Roll Call pieces, head over to the Stakeholder. And start working on that poster.

Posted at 01:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Technorati

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If Dan Rostenkowski can be defeated in north Chicago, Bob Ney can definitely be defeated in Chillicothe and Zanesville. If Ney's legal troubles persist (which it certainly looks as if they will), Ohio's GOP-friendly district map could work to our advantage next year. Ted Strickland's open seat is far more Democratic occupying Steubenville and Bellaire than it was pre-2000, meaning OH-06 isn't in tremendous peril even after Strickland's departure. Meanwhile, the GOP could see a computer-crafted "safe seat" slip into Democratic hands at the exact worst time, possibly ushering in a Democratic realignment in socially conservative southeast Ohio. The way it looks right now, we should all raise our glasses and toast Ohio Republicans for designing the election map they did four years ago.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 23, 2005 01:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN - DFL on a roll!!!

Terri Bonoff's victory tonight (nov. 22, 05) over Republican Judy Johnson is HUGE for the DFL. Starting with the most obvious, Bonoff's victory increases the DFL Senate majority to 36-30-1 (with the one independent, Sheila Kiscaden, caucusing with the DFL). The increased majority puts Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson in an even better bartering position compared to the GOP controlled House (which Republicans control by just 1 seat).

Bonoff's victory, however, means much more. Bonoff defeated the (supposedly) popular Mayor of Plymouth, which is more than half of the district (Johnson only won 51% of the vote in Plymouth), despite having never run for public office before. She managed to do this with Election Day scheduled just 2 days before Thanksgiving (Johnson got some assistance from One Term Timmy, see here) which should have depressed turnout (lower turnout almost always hurts the DFL candidate).

To top it all off, Bonoff's victory runs against significant historical precedent. The DFL has lost all but 7 of the 36 special elections held since 1990. If you throw out special elections held in districts either on the Iron Range or in Minneapolis/St. Paul (where DFL candidates typically get 65%+) the DFL has only won 3 special elections in the past 15 years!

Tonight has to be rough for One Term Timmy Pawlenty. This whole debacle is his fault. After all, had he not drafted Chris Gaither to be his Chief of Staff, Gaither would have held the seat until Bonoff beat him in 2006...tough luck guv!

Combined with Bush's abysmal poll numbers in Minnesota and Republican Randy Kelly's embarrassing defeat three weeks ago, this has been a horrible fall for the Minnesota GOP.



Posted by: wellstoner [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 23, 2005 03:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ok, now we're talking about Minnesota....works for me!

Not only did Bonoff win in District 43, she won by nine points! This is an astounding victory because in post-exurban Minnesota political alignment, it has become necessary for Democrats to win in Minnetonka and control their losses in Republican Plymouth. When the mayor of Plymouth wins her hometown by only 51%, it tells me the GOP is seriously radioactive, which is outstanding news for the Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor, whoever they may be.

And keep in mind that on December 27, another special election will be held to fill the seat of Dave Kleis in District 15, a highly winnable district that includes the city of St. Cloud. It sure would be nice to go into next year's elections with an eight-seat DFL advantage in the Senate....nine if you count Kiscaden who at this point is pretty much a Democrat.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 23, 2005 04:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Note for reference: SD13 is in Mark Kennedy's Congressional District. SD43 is in Jim Ramstad's district.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 23, 2005 11:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment