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Tuesday, October 24, 2006

NRCC/NRSC Target List Leaked?

Posted by James L.

Chris Bowers has managed to score a stunning leak from the GOP: a seemingly full list (although it looks about a week out of date) of seats that the NRSC and NRCC are defending and targeting this cycle, complete with internal "rankings" of the likelihood of these seats changing hands.

The preliminary findings: they've written off Conrad Burns and Michael Steele in the Senate, and Graf, Sekula-Gibs, Padgett and Sherwood in the House, while also identifying 2 other Senate seats and 10 other House seats as leaning towards Democratic control.

Check it out; it's well worth a look. One of the most eye-opening things is that the NRCC is listing OH-02 as a toss-up (a race that the DCCC has yet to intervene in, although the NRCC mysteriously lists it as a race with DCCC ads, according to Bowers' chart).

Update: On second thought, doesn't this thing seem like it's a pile of bullshit? The DCCC is NOT running ads against Walsh, Schmidt, Bass, Porter, or Schmidt, contrary to what this list is telling you. There is no way the NRCC could be that sloppy.

Posted at 05:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Technorati

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Based on a quick glance at who they list as having DCCC ads, it looks like anyone who's on Red to Blue or Emerging Races gets that designation, even though some of them don't actually have DCCC ads.

I continue to find it bizarre that they think Santorum is in a stronger position than Burns.

Posted by: MissLaura [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2006 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm betting that the NRSC will start funding Conrad Burns again in the next week now that Burns is closing the gap with Tester in the polls.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2006 07:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Burns closing the gap is very scary.

Posted by: Sean [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2006 10:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

However, it should be mentioned that Burns is still trailing and under 50%. How many times have you seen an incumbent trailing this close to an election that they later went on to win?

Posted by: Sean [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 24, 2006 10:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I love the comment about how Hostettler is "not listening". I can just picture the conversation with him and Mehlman. "Look, John, you need to get off your ass and raise some money. You're losing." "No way, Ken, this is how I do things. I'm unorthodox. And Jesus told me I'm going to win. Never mind the polls." Mehlman is probably daydreaming about picking someone else to win back this lost-cause seat in 2008, someone who actually gives a crap. Of course, if we get a good candidate to replace Daniels in 2008, we could keep the momentum in Indy with some coattails.

Posted by: X Stryker [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 25, 2006 09:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment