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Monday, February 06, 2006

OH-07, 08 & 16: We Need Candidates

Posted by DavidNYC

Barry Welsh's Congressional race tracker site is a terrific resource. However, in some cases, it's over-inclusive, listing candidates whose names have been floated but who aren't necessarily running. For instance, I can tell you that Sharen Neuhardt is not running in OH-07. Tony Bourne, another listed potential candidate, no longer seems to have a working website. Fortunately, a knowledgeable reader tells me that a fellow named Dan Saks is planning on getting into the race. Hopefully this is in fact the case and this candidacy will pan out.

I haven't heard a peep about OH-08, the home of the new GOP Majority Leader John Boehner. We need someone to run here so that we can keep pressure up on Boehner and make sure he stays linked to the GOP's corruption scandals. Yes, this is a super-red district, but simply running against the GOP's top guy ensures you'll get at least some media coverage.

But I'm even more concerned about another district, one that is actually winnable: OH-16. It has actually gotten more Democratic recently: It went to Bush in 2000 by 11 points, but in 2004 by just 8 points. You may recall that this seat is held by Republican Ralph Regula, who demolished one-time blogosphere darling Jeff Seemann the last time out. (Regula won 67-33.)

Welsh's site lists Seemann as our candidate for this district once again, but there are a lot of problems here:

• Seemann's website isn't working.

• His Blogspot blog hasn't been updated since 2004.

• His TypePad blog hasn't been updated in over two months.

• He never filed his final FEC report in 2004. Seemann's girlfriend (apparently), posting under Seemann's name, claimed he raised $130K in 2004. However, the reports he did file only cover some $60K in expenditures. That leaves $70,000 unaccounted for.

• He has received a whopping six notices for his failure to file from the FEC, on 10/22/04, 12/17/04, 2/16/05, 5/2/05, 8/2/05 and 11/01/05.

• He was fined $9,075 by the FEC in October of 2005 for his failure to file.

In short, this is not the portrait of a responsible candidate. There is simply no way anyone will take you seriously if you're in arrears to the FEC and haven't even completed all your legally mandatory filings. Moreover, Seemann (with his $130K and broad netroots support) did only two points better than the Dem in 2002 - and that guy didn't raise any money. The bottom line is that we need someone else to run in this district.

Ohio's filing deadline is just 10 days away (Feb. 16th), and we're three candidates short. Given the toll that scandal has taken on the OH GOP, and the seemingly resurgent fortunes of the Ohio Democratic Party, it would be a tragedy if we let three Republican seats go uncontested. Hopefully we'll see some last-minute filings, because 2006 is the year to be a Dem in Ohio.

Posted at 05:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Technorati

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Comments

Seemann hasn't posted on dKos since December 2005.

Either way, I would hope someone would run to get a "leg up" for when Regula retires. Our best shot will be in Regula retires. And somebody could get a good start before that time.

I would hope that somebody out there could be inspired to run against Boehner.

Posted by: RBH at February 6, 2006 08:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have noticed that Barry Welsh's site and others have been saying that there was only one uncontested seat in Ohio (OH-08), when my count was at three.

It's not going to be easy to recruit a candidate to oppose Regula in OH-16 on such short notice, under these circumstances. I'm concerned that potential candidates might have mistakenly assumed that there was going to be a candidate in the District.

Unfortunately, anyone who does run will have to deal with the aftermath of the 2004 campaign.

The failure to file those FEC reports was just the tip of the iceberg. I know that in the future, I am going to be a LOT more cautious about contributing to campaigns unless I am REALLY confident about how they will handle my money.

Posted by: Ohanon at February 6, 2006 09:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Charles Kuffner rightly took us to task for relying on the under-inclusive DCCC site when reporting on the Texas filing situation. However, as I say, I think people have been overly reliant on Barry Welsh's site, which doesn't distinguish between candidates who have actually filed vs. those who have merely expressed interest. I fear that people who might have otherwise jumped into a race have backed off because they thought someone was already running.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 7, 2006 12:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Weird. I always heard that Barry Welsh's team had a pretty high bar before a candidate was listed. That's disappointing--but I thought they marked the vacant entries where a candidate was merely "expressing interest but not filed" by a pink/purple Unopposed bar instead of a red Unopposed bar.

Have you forwarded this post to the Barry Welsh team? It's very important that this list be revised ASAP!

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 7, 2006 03:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Poor old Rex Freedom and Barry Welsh; they try and do the right thing and cop brickbats from all and sundry.

A few points:
1) "Barry Welsh's Congressional race tracker site is a terrific resource. However, in some cases, it's over-inclusive, listing candidates whose names have been floated but who aren't necessarily running." - BULLSHIT the Welsh campaign (at least in the last 2 months) require a candidate website, a sos filing or a candidate declaration. No less. Which is why most of the names in this list:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Are NOT included in their list (nor should they be yet).

The site should have a list for listed candidates. GREAT IDEA

Jeff Seemaan - OK any prizes for guessing who blogged first about Seemaan's difficulties? No Not BENAWU or DAVIDNYC it was RBH about a week ago. Rex Freedom had confirmation over the weekend that Seemaan was still running I think it was from one of the county chairs.

In Welsh's defence Seemaan looked off and running until christmas it wasn't a rumour it was a fact and we still don't know if he is out. He bloody should be though.

If a candidate says hi im running and sets up a website then IMHO that merits inclusion at Welsh's 50 state site. You can't hang them if a candidate withdraws.

OH 8 - your views concur with the Welsh site congrats.

The DCCC site - who the fuck cares what the DCCC site says it is riddled with inaccuracies as is actblue BTW.

Tony Bourne - his site is under construction not down.

Posted by: BENAWU at February 7, 2006 06:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"OK any prizes for guessing who blogged first about Seemaan's difficulties? No Not BENAWU or DAVIDNYC it was RBH about a week ago."

Yeah, so?

Posted by: RBH at February 7, 2006 09:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So good bit of detective work on your part RBH. The point I was making is that the 50 state site were allready checking out Seemann's candidacy as a result of your comment after I emailled them and commented in Rex's boner diary.

Your breadth of knowledge astounds me.

Posted by: BENAWU at February 7, 2006 09:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I would not worry too much about the interactive state map discouraging candidates from running.
If you are involved in local politics enough to consider running for congress don’t you think that you would have a good knowledge of the other perspective candidates in your own district

Posted by: Buckscountydem at February 7, 2006 09:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you are involved in local politics enough to consider running for congress don’t you think that you would have a good knowledge of the other perspective candidates in your own district.

True - I thought about that after I hit "post." Naturally, anyone even remotely serious about running is going to do some due diligence. However, states like Ohio allow for placeholder candidates, so I could envision a situation where someone willing to stick it out as a placeholder might be deterred. Perhaps that's an overweening concern.

Still, I'd like to be as viligant as possible when it comes to having good data.

And Benawu: I have nothing but respect for what Barry & Rex have done.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 7, 2006 10:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, when it comes to Jeff, hopefully he is running (just to have someone running). But I wouldn't really mind it if somebody else wanted to run too.

Jeff doesn't make the list of "People I would automatically urge challenges to in Democratic primaries" (that list includes LaRouchites, Racists, convicted criminals, and people who will probably be convicted of a crime)

Posted by: RBH at February 7, 2006 10:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

BTW, Benawu, the person who harped on Seemann's difficulties first was DeanFan84 in the comments at DailyKos (for which he unfairly got hammered).

Also, like I say, we're all on the same side here. I'm not trying to ding Barry's list. I just wanted to point out that not all listings are created equal - something I am sure Barry himself would acknowledge. It's not necessarily possible to know which are rock-solid and which are more speculative just from looking at the list, which is why extra due diligence is always important.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 7, 2006 10:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, DeanFan84 did make a pretty good catch when it comes to finding out about the Seemann fines.

As for the candidate filing database. I wish more states had systems like Kentucky or Florida. The Florida system is here.

Posted by: RBH at February 7, 2006 11:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, KY does have one of the best SoS sites.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 7, 2006 11:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kansas's SoS site is pretty interesting, and they are also showing early filings. While it's useful to have the primary results for elections going back to 1990, the site does do a weird thing to your window at least once.

Posted by: RBH at February 7, 2006 11:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just to follow up on what DavidNYC says, I mean no disrespect for Barry Welsh and his team, or the DCCC either. Collecting a list of candidates and keeping it up to date is a big task. My gripe at the time was that there was a fair amount of information out there elsewhere in the blogosphere about Texas candidates, yet the sources that kept getting cited in the "we need candidates here!" posts did not reflect this. It was too little information, not too much.

I guess I'm tuning in a bit late here in re: Seeman. What's the backstory? Has Seeman himself said anything about this? Thanks.

Posted by: kuff at February 7, 2006 02:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

All I can say is, gotta love the self-correcting nature of the blogosphere!

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 7, 2006 03:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Indeed David indeed.

Seemann is running somone at Kos emailled him.

OH 7 however needs a candidate. Hope your tip can be confirmed in a Welsh compatible manner soon.

BTW is Davis in in NY 26?

Posted by: BENAWU at February 7, 2006 07:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We should probably hope for somebody else in NY-26, just in case Davis isn't running (or running seriously)

Posted by: RBH at February 7, 2006 09:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment