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Wednesday, February 15, 2006

KY-04: Internal Poll Puts Lucas Up 10

Posted by DavidNYC

Via Mark Nickolas at BluegrassReport (likely voters, no trendlines):

Lucas: 47
Davis: 37
Undecided: 16

Now this is the kind of margin you like to see in internal polls. I don't think Lucas would win by 10 points on election day, but I find the idea of him leading at this point eminently plausible. The poll's other questions are in line with independent numbers. Both George Bush and Gov. Ernie Fletcher's ratings are in negative territority (especially the latter) in both this district-wide poll and in national polls.

Beating an incumbent is almost always a monstrously difficulty task, though. Even in 1994, the year of the GOP landslide, only 15% of Democratic House incumbents lost. (There were 258 Dems in the 103rd Congress, but by my count, 33 did not seek re-election. Thirty-four incumbent Dems lost.) That's a figure you'll hear me repeat over and over this year. I think we'd be very lucky if we even hit half that total this year. Lucas has his work cut out for him, to be sure.

That said, I think he has just about every advantage a challenger could have: High name rec, personal popularity, a record to run on, a broad network of supporters, and a deeply unpopular KY GOP headed by a totally flailing and corrupt governor. KY-04 is definitely one of our top five takeover opportunities this year.

Posted at 04:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Technorati

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Even better than the impressive Lucas lead is seeing that Republicans Bush and Fletcher both have negative approval ratings in this intensely red district. If Republicans are suffering in a district like this, the party could have a much uglier November than the professional pundits and their predictions of "modest Democratic gains" would like us to believe.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 15, 2006 07:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment