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Monday, October 09, 2006

Gallup: Democrats Have a 23-Point Lead

Posted by James L.

Rock bottom:

Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.

President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.

The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.

Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.

She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."

Last month, Gallup had Democrats and Republicans tied at 48% each among likely voters. There are lots of caveats about generic ballot polls--namely, the pesky tendency for voters to voice their party preference, and yet remain reluctant to actually fire their incumbent Representative at the polls. Still, 23 points is full-scale disaster territory. Even the much-vaunted GOP turnout operation can't stop that kind of bleeding.

Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Technorati

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Why not make some hay with this old gem? http://www.house.gov/house/Contract/CONTRACT.html

Seems to me a lot of it might be pertinent today.

Posted by: jboschet [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 06:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Gallup's generic preference model has fluctuated so wildly that I'm not inclined to believe it now anymore than I did when it listed the Democrats and Republicans at 48% parity a month. Let's assume the margin is 15-18%, but still hold our breath. I'm expecting Mark Foley will not be the only October surprise. This North Korea incident today is a reminder of how quickly the conversation can change. As with every October on even-numbered years, it's gonna be a nervous 29 days for yours truly.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 07:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, I was thinking the same thing. I know the GOP will spin this to their advantage. However, this should show the incompetence of this administration and its unwillingness to engage in direct talks. This is certainly the the Republicans' counterpunch to Foleygate.

Posted by: Sean [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sean, Dick Morris and Hannity have already declared Foleygate dead with the North Korea issue taking form. Expect Bush to do everything he can to keep this in the headlines for the rest of the week.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2006 11:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, lets just hope that the UN comes up with a quick resolution and this gets out of the news promptly. This is not the kind of issue that the Democrats want to have in the background of an election campaign. I am wondering how much a boost in approval Bush will get from this.

Posted by: Sean [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2006 12:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think it's too early to tell if Bush will get much of a boost from North Korea's actions. Let's see how it all rattles out in the media for a few days first.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2006 12:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Concern about NoKorea effecting the Dems badly, don't think so. The Bush Administration failures here don't make talking points function in a positive way for the Gop. Another failed foeign policy from the group that gave us the Iraq nightmare. Their trust level is shot.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2006 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah... I'm sensing we may see a bit of the Boy Who Cried Wolf factor if Bush tries to fearmonger people out of voting Democrat. But we shall see--the story isn't over yet.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 10, 2006 01:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, even though things are looking good for the Democrats, we can't afford to get comfortable until the ballot boxes are closed. We need to keep pushing, supporting, and helping the Democratic candidates, for the battle is not won yet!

The 21st Century Democrats, http://www.21stdems.org, know the battle is not won yet, and are still putting foreword incredible efforts in the push for democratic victory; providing financial and logistical (on the ground) support to many pivotal, progressive candidates across America. And it is true that they are awesome; I also know that you too are awesome for helping the Democrats in their fight for victory this November! So let’s not get arrogant, keep our mind on goal of victory, and keep on truckin’ until the goal is definitively achieved!!!

Posted by: Whirled Peas [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2006 03:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment