Monday, October 30, 2006
OH-02: Jean Schmidt's Self-Inflicted October Surprise
Posted by James L.I sometimes wonder if Jean Schmidt's entire political career has been a subvert effort to leave Republicans feeling punk'd in Ohio's 2nd district. Take yesterday, for example, when I read this nugget from a Cincinnati Enquirer article:
This doesn't happen every day: An incumbent member of Congress, in the middle of a re-election battle, says that storing nuclear waste shipments from around the world in her district may be a good idea.U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt does say that, and her support for studying the idea has become an issue in her re-election campaign, especially in rural Pike County, in the far eastern end of her sprawling Southern Ohio District, where the nuclear wastes would be stored.
"I'm not advocating for it one way or the other," Schmidt told The Enquirer. "I'm saying it is something we need to look at."
Schmidt said she sees potential to create "hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs" in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm.
Unreal. With just over a week left until election day, Schmidt drops a radioactive October surprise on herself. When was the last time that you heard a politician advocate for the possibility of bringing nuclear waste into their constituency? It's mind-boggling, especially since this district nestles the Ohio River.
Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in, but if the DCCC wanted to finish a vulnerable Jean Schmidt off, this could be the silver bullet.
Posted at 03:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
OH-02: Going for the Jugular
Posted by James L.I think that about sums it up. On the web: Dr. Vic Wulsin for Congress
Posted at 04:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
OH-12: Hilarious Shamansky Ad
Posted by James L.Here's something pretty rare: a genuinely funny campaign commercial. This one's from former Rep. Bob Shamansky, and goes right for the jugular of incumbent Rep. Pat Tiberi--only with a liberal dose of humor that made JibJab such a craze two years ago.
Awesome. Just awesome. At 78 years old, Bob Shamansky is one of the unlikeliest candidates for Congress this year. Shamansky actually originally contested this seat in 1966 (that's not a typo) unsuccessfully, but did manage to knock off 10-term incumbent Rep. Samuel Devine in 1980, before redistricting forced his defeat just two years later. Now, Bob's back to challenge Republican congressman Pat Tiberi in a district that's more favorable for Democrats since Bush edged Gore here by a 51-46% margin in 2000. Due to extensive voter registration efforts by local Democrats and changing demographics in Franklin County, Bush squeaked by with 51% to Kerry's 49% in 2004. While this is certainly not the likeliest of House Democratic pick-ups, Shamansky has put up a respectable amount of his own money into this race, and with the mood of the Ohio and national electorate turning sour for Republicans, you never know about a seat like this.
Crazier things have happened.
Posted at 12:44 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
OH-02: Jaw-dropping SUSA Poll Shows a Three Point Race
Posted by James L.
When an internal poll released by Democratic challenger Vic Wulsin in July showed a tied race, I was pleasantly surprised but still cautious. Jean Schmidt obviously hasn't done much to endear herself to voters in OH-02 since beating Paul Hackett by a slim margin over a year ago; she's spent her time either getting taunted by Saturday Night Live for a shameless assualt on the courage of Vietnam veteran John Murtha on the floor of the House, releasing racist newsletters to her constituents, and getting into hot water with the Ohio Elections Commission for beefing up her campaign biography with a degree that she apparently never earned. Still, this is a blood red district, and not even Paul Hackett could crack it, so I didn't want to get my hopes up. But get a load of this new SUSA poll (likely voters):
Victoria Wulsin (D): 42
Jean Schmidt (R): 45
MoE: ±4.5%
The crosstabs are illuminating, too: Schmidt gets 71% of Republican voters (13% for Wulsin), while Wulsin gets 86% of Democratic voters, and 48% of independent voters to Schmidt's 38%.
Jean Schmidt is drinking from a poisoned well. No wonder the DCCC added OH-02 to its Emerging Races program.
Posted at 06:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 14, 2006
OH-18: The Next CA-50?
Posted by James L.In the 50th Congressional District of California, an entrenched Republican incumbent (Duke Cunningham) pled guilty to corruption charges.
In the 18th Congressional District of Ohio, it appears that another entrenched Republican incumbent is about to do the same:
Ohio Republican Rep. Bob Ney has agreed with the Justice Department to plead guilty to at least one criminal charge in a deal that could be announced as early as Friday, Capitol Hill sources said Thursday.
Charlie Cook ranks CA-50 as having a Partisan Voting Index of R+4.6 (that is, the district voted an average of 4.6% more Republican in the last two presidential contests than the national average).
Charlie Cook ranks OH-18 as having a PVI of R+6.1
In CA-50, Duke Cunningham's "early retirement" (ie. prison term) allowed another experienced Republican politician to assume his place on the ballot against a Democratic challenger with a thin-to-minimal political resume (Francine Busby).
In OH-18, Bob Ney's announcement that he would not seek another term allowed another experienced Republican politician (State Sen. Joy Padgett) to assume his place on the ballot against a Democratic challenger with a thin-to-minimal political resume, Dover Law Director Zack Space.
In CA-50 special election, Busby ran a campaign entirely focused against the Republican culture of corruption, and emphasized that she would take no 'gifts, trips or secret meetings' with lobbyists.
In OH-18, Space is running a campaign primarily focused on rooting out corruption, promising to accept "no gifts, meals or trips" from lobbyists. (For an example, check out this almost laughably boisterous ad.)
In the CA-50 special election, Busby fell short of Bilbray by less than 4 points (49.3-45.5).
Will Zack Space fare any better in a district that leans even more to the Republicans? At first glance, one would have to be pretty skeptical of such a scenario. But there are a number of factors that should complicate an easy victory for Republicans in this district. First off, Padgett was Ney's handpicked candidate, a line of attack that Space has already opened on her. Bilbray did not have the curse of being associated with Cunningham. Secondly, Padgett endorsed Ney's re-election bid even after his ethical "lapses" came to the fore. Thirdly, her political career has evolved from her close relationship with Gov. Bob Taft (the least popular Governor in the nation with a whopping 79% disapproval rating). If Space can consistently tie Padgett with the Bobs (Taft and Ney, that is), he may be able to succeed where Busby failed.
Posted at 10:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio, Scandals | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
OH-03: Dem Candidate Drops Out; Could Hackett Jump In?
Posted by DavidNYCStephanie Studebaker, the Democratic candidate in OH-03, has formally withdrawn from the race after being arrested on domestic violence charges. The Buckeye State Blog does an extensive roundup on who might replace her. The most intriguing name at the top of the list: One Paul Hackett.
This southwestern Ohio district is R+2.9 - in other words, far less Republican than neighboring OH-02 (R+13.1). If Hackett jumped in, he'd make the race instantly competitive. All the Hackettistas still carrying a torch for him would give him an instant cash infusion, and I think Rahm Emanuel - who wanted Hackett to challenge Jean Schmidt again - might be interested in getting involved as well.
I think this idea is a lot less crazy than it would have been earlier in the year. If you'll recall, around a month ago, Hackett finally endorsed Sherrod Brown. So maybe he's more interested in being a team player now. And if he jumped in in OH-03, he wouldn't be going back on any promises not to push other candidates out of the race, since right now there is no Democratic candidate.
Can Hackett fans convince their man to get back into the ring? We'll see.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, August 07, 2006
OH-18: Ney Takes The DeLay Way Out
Posted by RBHNey's leaving now, (fortunately for Ney, it appears to be a legal strategy):
Rep. Bob Ney, enmeshed in a congressional corruption scandal, abruptly abandoned his race for re-election Monday after months of prodding from Republican leaders worried about losing his seat this fall.Ney said in a statement he is innocent of any wrongdoing, and had acted for the sake of his family. "I must think of them first, and I can no longer put them through this ordeal," he said.
Unfortunately for Mr. Ney, dropping out of a Congressional race does not mean that all the investigations into your corruption will disappear.
So, when it comes to replacements, which Republican did he hand the ball to?
A Republican who accused a former hostage of Hezbollah of being soft on terrorism
Padgett Accused Her Opponent of Being Soft on Terrorists. Padgett’s 2004 Senate opponent was a former foreign correspondent for The Associated Press who became famous after Shiite Hezbollah terrorists kidnapped him and held him hostage in Lebanon for almost seven years. Padgett accused him of anti-American behavior and that he is soft on terrorists. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Padgett, also “sent out campaign mailings this month showing Anderson with a Hezbollah terrorist leader. She called Anderson “part of the ‘Blame America’ crowd” that is sympathetic to Mideast thugs intent on hurting Americans.” What she failed to mention was that the terrorist pictured with Anderson was the secretary general of Hezbollah, the group that abducted him in 1985. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 10/30/04]
The women of the Ohio Republican Party sure are pleasant, nice, down to earth people. (Although that quote doesn't mention that Padgett also compared Anderson to the 'supreme villain' that is Dan Rather)
The Republican switcheroo doesn't appear to have a huge effect on Zack Space. The Republicans didn't nominate Mr. Clean. Also, Space will have a CoH advantage for awhile, and should be pretty well off money-wise for most of the way to election day. Since this is now an open seat, he'll benefit. As well, if Padgett lives up to her reputation from the Anderson race, Space could benefit by getting people who are sick of nasty attacks.
Either way, things just got even more heated in OH-18.
Posted at 02:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Culture of Corruption, Ohio | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
OH-02: Pearls of Wisdom From Jean Schmidt
Posted by James L.Wow. Check THIS out. Ohio's greatest embarrassment, congresswoman Jean Schmidt, has just released a newsletter addressing the sensitive issue of anti-Americanism in the Middle East. I haven't read essays this juvenile or poorly written outside of a fourth grade classroom. I'm not even kidding. The Vic Wulsin for Congress Blog has the goods.
Get a load of nuggets like this one:
The Iraqi's perception is that we are all powerful. We watch them from space with technology they cannot even imagine. Surely if we wanted to turn on his electricity we could do so. He has no idea how large the problem is but he knows we can do anything. He was angry. Eventually his air conditioning began running and his anger cooled.
Um. Wow. Yes, I do believe she compared Iraqi citizens to dumbed-down 'savages' who can't tell the difference between the American armed forces and God (or Allah, in this case).
Words are just failing me right now, folks. I give up.
Posted at 02:12 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
OH-02: Jean Schmidt Has $17,500 For November
Posted by James L.Heh. This is pretty funny. I got an e-mail today pointing me toward Jean Schmidt's 2Q FEC filing. Evidently, ol' Jeanny had to unload a great deal of her warchest just to get under 48% of the vote in her spring primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen. McEwen fell just under 4,000 votes shy of ending Schmidt's glamorous, combat veteran-insulting half-term career in Congress. Of $1.46m raised, she's reporting $17,509 as of June 30. $17,509.
Let me repeat that, just in case your eyes glazed over: $17,509. Cash. On. Hand. (And let's not forget that $277,000 debt that her campaign has accumulated.)
A full two months after her primary campaign elapsed and she has $17,509 in the bank? Brutal.
Now, Schmidt's Democratic opponent, Dr. Victoria Wulsin, is not going to win this seat with the cash that she's got, either: $24,564. But at least she has the temporary bragging rights of holding 50% CoH advantage. (Heh.)
This could prove to be another fun race, especially when coupled with Wulsin's latest internal polling. I have no doubt that the Republican extremist base and PAC backbone will help Schmidt out again and retire her campaign debt for her, but at least she doesn't face the advantage of having a $1m+ warchest to swamp her challenger with on the airwaves this summer.
Posted at 12:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
OH-02: This One's Got a Pulse, Doctor
Posted by James L.First off, if you've read my latest post on the most recent batch of internal polls from Ohio, you'd know that I'm fairly nonplussed by campaign-commissioned polls. That said, if this poll is anywhere near the truth, I think I may be able to renew my faith in humanity (likely voters):
Victoria Wulsin (D): 44
Jean Schmidt (R): 44
Undecided: 11
Who knows, maybe even a blood red district can't stomach a congresswoman who became the laughingstock of Saturday Night Live. Other pertinent details from the poll: Schmidt has a 33-53% approval/disapproval rating, and only 30% of the respondents say they will vote for her; 34% say they will definitely cast their ballots for someone else. Wulsin also leads among independents by a 52-36 margin. The maddening thing, of course, is the missing margin of error. What is it? 3? 6? 12? It's a pretty key piece of information that's missing from Wulsin's press release.
Still, I'm glad to see numbers like these for the Wulsin campaign. She may not be Paul Hackett, who was one of the most unique candidates I've ever seen in politics, but her advocacy for public health both home and abroad (where she has assisted HIV prevention initiatives for USAID in Africa), is pretty remarkable and respectable herself. I met Wulsin's former campaign manager (from her primary campaign with Hackett) last year after the dust settled on the special election, and he left me with a very good impression of Vic and her values. She would be an excellent voice in Congress, and I hope that these numbers give her campaign a lift in the months ahead.
UPDATE: Okay, I found the MoE here: ±4.9%. High, but not awful.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
OH-18: A Tale of Two Polls
Posted by James L.So yesterday, we got an internal poll done by Cooper & Secrest (D) for the Zack Space campaign, that seemed just too good to be true. Space, as you may know, is taking on Jack Abramoff's snuggle buddy, Rep. Bob Ney. Here's the poll, just in case you missed it (likely voters):
Zack Space (D): 46
Bob Ney (R-Inc.): 35
Undecided: 19
MoE: ±4.4
When I saw a poll that showed Space, a guy with minimal name recognition, already taking nearly half the vote in a district that voted for Bush by 14 points, I was skeptical, to say the least. And while the poll may be off, it's turns out that it's probably not way off. Ney's commissioned an internal poll of his own by GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. The result? A slim Ney lead over Space by 45 to 41 percentage points. As the Hotline notes, that's a 15 point difference between the two polls (+11 to -4 for Space). The truth probably lies somewhere between the two, but even if it's a worst case scenario, a four point lead for Ney, a six-term incumbent in a ripe red district, isn't exactly good news, either.
Of course, if Ney is indicted and the state Republicans manage to replace him on the ballot with someone a lot ethically cleaner, this discussion is irrelevant...
Update: As Cillizza notes, Ney's poll has a trendline: the poll "marks a considerable improvement from January when Ney trailed Space 49 percent to 37 percent 'shortly after Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty and the story was all over the news,' according to a memo penned by Bolger and released this morning."
Posted at 08:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, July 10, 2006
OH-Sen: Hackett Endorses Brown
Posted by James L.It's about 5 months later than I would have liked to see, but hey, at least the hatchet is buried:
U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown will finally win the endorsement today of his former Democratic rival for U.S. Senate, Mr. Brown's campaign said late yesterday.Mr. Brown, a Democrat from Avon who faces incumbent Republican Mike DeWine this fall, is scheduled to receive the endorsement of primary election opponent Paul Hackett at a "unity rally" in Cincinnati, the Brown campaign said. Mr. Hackett could not be reached for comment.
(Hat-tip to pontificator.)
Posted at 01:23 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
OH-Sen: New SUSA Poll Shows Brown Leading By 9 Points
Posted by James L.For the life of me, I can't figure out why the OH-Sen polling is all over the place. Just when you think DeWine has a powerful lead, another firm comes out with a poll showing Brown on top, sometimes by equally powerful margins. And vice versa. Over, and over, and over again. Stop the insanity! What, pray tell, could possibly be swinging this race back and forth so much?
Anyway, here's the latest take from SUSA (likely voters, no trendlines):
Sherrod Brown (D): 48
Mike DeWine (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.4%)
As far as I can tell, this is the first Survey USA poll on the race. Conventional wisdom says that one should disregard the wild fluctuations of these polls until a clear trend one way or the other is seen. Until then, I'm going to still consider this a tight one.
Posted at 02:09 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
Ohio Primary Results Wrap-Up
Posted by DavidNYCOhio seemed to have the most interesting batch of primaries yesterday. Some results in key races:
• OH-02 (Incumbent, Schmidt): Wow did Jean Schmidt ever eke out a narrow win - just 48-42 over Bob McEwen. I wonder if he's cursing the two also-ran candidates, considering that Schmidt didn't even crack 50%. In a way, this may be the best possible outcome for us. Though OH-02 is hardly a competitive seat, we still face the most pathetic possible candidate (Schmidt) who's been embarrassingly weakened in her primary. Our candidate will be Victoria Wulsin.
• OH-04 (Open, Oxley): Not a race really on anyone's radar, as it's R+13.6. But this is an open seat. Republican Jim Jordan won a multi-way primary with 51% of the vote. Our man is Richard Siferd, who was unopposed. And speaking of this seat, the Dem who challenged Oxley last time, up-and-comer Ben Konop, decided to run for Lucas County Commissioner (apparently a pretty powerful post). I had hoped that Ben would run for OH-04 again, but I'm glad to see he won his primary last night (and quite convicingly, too).
• OH-06 (Open, Strickland): Charlie Wilson pulled it off. Thank the maker! He did a pretty nice job, too, winning with 66% of the vote. Chris Bowers makes the argument that the write-in debacle actually strengthened Wilson's campaign by forcing him to work hard early. I buy it. I'm also pleased to see that the GOP establishment pick, Chuck Blasdel, failed to crack 50% in winning his primary.
• OH-12 (Incumbent, Tiberi): Again, not a race many people are watching. But Bob Shamansky, a one-term former Congressman from way back in the day, won the right to be the Dem nominee. However, in theory, this district ought to be competitive, because it's a mere R+0.7.
• OH-13 (Open, Brown): Betty Sutton wins, and all I can say is, I'm really glad Capri Cafaro lost. Maybe she can start sharing her fortune with candidates who can, you know, win. Meanwhile, GOP golden boy Craig Foltin won with 37%.
• OH-16 (Incumbent, Regula): Wow, I didn't even know Ralph "Malph" Regula was on the receiving end of a serious primary challenge - he eked out a 58-42 win. That's pretty shabby for a zillion-year incumbent, and it lends further credence to the notion that we can definitely pick up this seat - if not now, then when Regula retires at the end of the next term. (Recall this poll.) Pastor Tom Shaw won the Dem nod in a very narrow race (51-49), though I can't say I'm enthused about the fact that his website is still "under construction."
• OH-18 (Incumbent, Ney): Big upset. Netroots-backed Zack Space beats Fighting Dem Joe Sulzer quite handily, 39-24. What's more, Sulzer actually finished in third place, behind a candidate I'd never even heard of, Jennifer Stewart. On the GOP side, Bob Ney won 68-32. Most observers expect him to pull a DeLay and drop out post-primary so that the GOP elders can annoint his replacement.
• OH-Gov (Open, Taft): Ken Blackwell beat Jim Petro, 56-44 for the Republican nod. I seriously hope Ted Strickland whoops his ass.
• OH-Sen (Incumbent, DeWine): Not much to report here, except for the fact that Mike DeWine won his primary with a smaller percentage than Sherrod Brown did, 72 vs. 78. DeWine edged Brown in total votes, though, 544K to 538K.
Any additional thoughts on Ohio?
Posted at 10:39 AM in 2006 Elections, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Thursday, April 06, 2006
OH-02: Schmidt Lied on Resume
Posted by DavidNYCFrom the Cleveland Plain Dealer's politics blog:
The Ohio Elections Commission will determine whether U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt intentionally lied on her political resume last year to help herself get elected to Congress....
At issue is Schmidt's claim that she has two academic degrees from the University of Cincinnati when in fact she only has one. Her campaign has offered various explanations for the mix-up.
A small panel of Commission members on Wednesday reviewed a complaint against Schmidt from a McEwen supporter filed just two days ago and decided there is probable cause for the full commission to consider the matter.
More details here. I expect nothing less from good ole Schmitty. (Remember this little footnote to the whole Murtha flap?) Fortunately, we'll still have Mean Jean to kick around for at least a little while to come - a new SUSA poll showed her leading primary challenger Bob McEwen by 55-30. Let's not kid ourselves: Like Katherine Harris, we're much better off having her around than not.
(Thanks to Walt for the CPD story.)
Posted at 10:59 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
OH-15: Internal (D) Poll Shows a Close Race
Posted by DavidNYCThis is nice to see. Challenger Mary Jo Kilroy just did an internall poll (sub. only) on her race against Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (likely voters, no trendlines):
Kilroy: 41
Pryce: 44
(MoE: ±4%)
What makes these super-close results even more amazing is that Pryce has far greater name recognition. She has a 53-30 favorability rating while Kilroy clocks in at 34-17 - fully a 32% edge. If Kilroy gets her name out there, this seat is definitely in play. Kilroy's raised $170K so far (and still has that much on hand), which seems decent for a challenger. (Pryce, though, has almost a million in her warchest.)
What's more, this district trended heavily Dem in 2004. Bush won 52-44 against Gore but had an even 50-50 split against Kerry. The Almanac of American Politics attributes this to a big Dem registration and GOTV drive in Columbus, which is mostly within the 15th CD. Hopefully these gains will stick.
CQ rates this seat as "Republican Favored," which makes it functionally a third-tier race. Charlie Cook, however, puts it in his "Lean Republican" category (PDF), which is his second-tier ranking. And Chuck Todd (via House Race Hotline editor Josh Kraushaar) calls it a "mid-major" race and ranks it 29th overall. But if Kilroy can show a good quarter, that - combined with this strong poll showing - might inspire a few of these gurus to bump this race up a few notches.
(Thanks to Tracy Joan.)
Posted at 10:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, March 20, 2006
OH-06: Trusting Republicans With Money, Revisited
Posted by DavidNYCWhere there's smoke, I suppose, there's fire. Just last Friday, we were talking about Chuck Blasdel - Republican hopefull for OH-06 - bouncing a $500 tax check. It turns out, however, that Mendacious Chuck may owe one hundred times that amount in back taxes:
The state says state Rep. Charles Blasdel, a Republican in the 6th Congressional District race, owes $20,986.23 or $54,915.87 in estimated delinquent taxes and fees on two defunct businesses he co-owned.The issue is a huge misunderstanding, and will be cleared up, said Jessica Towhey, Blasdel's campaign spokeswoman.
The state attorney general's office on behalf of the Ohio Department of Taxation filed 13 tax judgments between Nov. 24, 1995, and Aug. 8, 2001, totaling $20,986.23 against Blasdel Cline Inc. and Executive Cigar Inc., according to records at Columbiana County Common Pleas Court.
...
Based on its records, Mark Anthony, an AG spokesman said the two companies owe $54,915.87 in estimated delinquent taxes and fees as of Friday.
WOW! Fifty grand in upaid taxes. I think they send people to Leavenworth for less. It looks to me like Mendacious Chuck Blasdel just wrote his political obituary. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
(Thanks to Ansatasia P for the alert.)
Posted at 03:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, March 17, 2006
OH-13: Capri Cafaro, Are You Kidding Me?
Posted by DavidNYCThe National Rifle Association has endorsed Capri Cafaro for Congress at a time when the 28-year-old Youngstown shopping mall heiress says she is thinking about packing heat.Cafaro, a Democrat, who says she is a dedicated defender of the Second Amendment, opposes the assault weapon ban and favors Ohio's concealed-carry law. She also plans to take a class to learn how to fire a handgun, and might carry a weapon after she completes the course.
"As a woman who comes from means, I'm in some tough neighborhoods sometimes," she says.
If you're gonna support gun rights, fine. But this is just extremely naked pandering. And that last line? What the hell is that even supposed to mean? As a woman from extremely wealthy means, you are NEVER in tough neighborhoods, Capri. Or are you saying you might get mugged walking around your district because people know you're super-wealthy? Whatever she means, it's either snobby in the extreme or totally senseless.
Cafaro, for those of you who don't know, blew $2 million of her personal fortune (she's a shopping-mall heiress) to get 37% of the vote against Steve LaTourette in neighboring OH-14 last cycle. Now she's decided to try for something a bit safer (OH-13 is Sherrod Brown's seat). Frankly, I'll doubt she'll win the hotly contested, zillion-candidate primary. I just wish she'd spend her money more wisely.
Posted at 06:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-06: Trusting Republicans With Money Dept.
Posted by DavidNYCAh, Charlie Wilson must be feeling pretty good about this. What's the only thing dumber'n not getting 50 signatures to get on the ballot? Bouncing a $500 check for your property tax bill. And that's exactly what Chuck Blasdel, the main Republican candidate in OH-06, did just recently. As the Wilson campaign put it:
"Because of this, [Blasdel] is the perfect Republican candidate for Congress — fiscally irresponsible and a deficit spender," said Jason Burke, campaign manager for state Sen. Charles Wilson, a Democratic write-in candidate for the 6th District seat. "It's no wonder Washington, D.C., Republicans recruited him."
With any luck, we may yet snatch victory from defeat's scaly jaws.
Posted at 06:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, February 27, 2006
OH-06: Wilson Pursuing Write-In Route
Posted by DavidNYCCQ Politics is reporting that Charlie Wilson will try to win the Democratic primary in OH-06 as a write-in candidate. This is probably the right move for Wilson, though it's merely the best of a bad set of choices. CQ thinks that Wilson "should be able to outpoll" the other two Dems running for the nomination because they are "little-known," but needless to say, write-in candidacies are pretty tricky things to pull off. Wilson should pay a call to DC Mayor Anthony Williams to see how Tony managed it in DC a few years back.
(Thanks to reader Ohanon.)
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
OH-06: Bad News, Sports Fans
Posted by DavidNYCCharles A. Wilson Jr. doesn't have enough valid signatures on his nominating petitions to run in the Democratic primary for the 6th Congressional District race, The Vindicator has learned.The Columbiana County Board of Elections is left with no other choice but to disqualify Wilson's candidacy for the seat at its meeting today.
Wilson has only 48 valid signatures on his nominating petitions, according to two Democratic sources and one Republican source with knowledge of his petitions. Congressional candidates need 50 valid signatures from registered voters in their districts to get on the ballot.
Options:
1) Appeal to the Columbiana elections board, then to a court if that fails. I doubt that will work.2) Run as a write-in. Difficult and expensive.
3) Run as an independent. Requires getting 1,886 signatures. Why am I not confident about that route?
4) Wait until after the primary, then convince the winner to step aside and let Wilson take his/her slot. This might be legally permissible, but good luck making it work in practice. And any move like this will also surely garner negative media attention.
It's looking bad all around. What a colossal screw-up.
Posted at 02:29 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, February 20, 2006
OH: 18 of 18
Posted by DavidNYCPending any challenges, we have candidates running in 18 of 18 Ohio congressional districts. CQ did the hard work of going around to every relevant county office to collect these filings. What a cockamamie system Ohio has! The only person without a challenger is Democrat Tim Ryan in OH-17.
North Carolina is next (filing deadline 2/28). Barry Welsh says we have three seats unfilled (5,6 & 10), but the DCCC site says that we do indeed have a candidate in NC-10.
The following day, both Mississippi and Nebraska have their deadlines. In MS, we don't have challengers to either of the two GOP-held seats. However, in NE, we have challengers in all three seats.
After that, we've got a few empty spots in PA and quite a bunch in CA. You can see the complete list of filing deadlines here.
Posted at 04:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, February 19, 2006
OH-06: We'll Know on Wednesday
Posted by DavidNYCWednesday is the day when the Columbiana County Board of Elections will (or won't) certify Charlie Wilson's petitions to get on the ballot for the 6th CD race. (Ohio has a crazy filing system whereby you have to file with the BoE of the most populous county within your CD. Of course, many counties are split into pieces, some CDs contain parts of 10 counties, etc. It's nuts.)
But here's the thing. Charlie Wilson only needed fifty signatures. It's beyond pathetic not to be able to amass that many. In New York, for example, you need 1,250. To be on the safe side, you actually go for four times that many. You assume that a bunch won't actually be registered Dems; that you won't be able to find some on the voter rolls altogether; that some won't live in the right CD; that some will fill out the forms incorrectly.
In New York, that means you want 5,000. For Ohio, that means a whopping 200. Wilson's biggest problem, apparently, is that a bunch of signers aren't residents of the 6th CD. Yeah, blame it on redistricting - but that was four years ago. We've had two congressional elections since then. There's just no excuse for this. And don't expect much love from the Ohio courts - check out this sob story brought to our attention by commenter Ohanon.
For all candidates everywhere, please just follow this one simple rule: Get your freakin' petitions done properly.
Posted at 02:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, February 17, 2006
OH-06: Dem Candidacy in Jeopardy
Posted by DavidNYCA few days ago, over at MyDD, I wondered out loud if we were at any risk of losing OH-06, the seat Ted Strickland is vacating to run for governor. It's an evenly split district, which was the source of my concern. But people assured me that it would stay in our hands, not least because the Ohio GOP isn't all that popular right now.
Problem is, you gotta have a candidate in order to win. And, in some truly awful news, state Sen. Charlie Wilson may have seriously screwed up:
The only Democratic hopeful in a key U.S. House race submitted a revised petition for candidacy with more signatures Thursday in a move the Ohio secretary of state's office called "problematic."Ohio state Sen. Charlie Wilson withdrew a batch of signatures he filed Monday because he thought he could gather more signatures and resubmit them to the county election board before Thursday's deadline, said his son and campaign manager, Jason Wilson.
But a state law changed in December 2002 states: "No petition may be withdrawn after it is filed in a public office."
A spokesman for Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell suggested the maneuver could jeopardize Wilson's candidacy.
I'd expect some kind of court challenge here, but with Blackwell on the other side, I'm certainly not sanguine.
Posted at 12:06 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
OH-Sen: I Didn't Say What I Said
Posted by DavidNYCYou might have been a bit confused if you read this AP story from yesterday:
“Hackett would have probably won this seat,” [DavidNYC], one of three founders of the liberal Web site SwingStateProject.com, contended in a blog posting Tuesday. “It's much harder for me to envision the 'northeastern Ohio liberal' Sherrod Brown breaking the 49-percent barrier, particularly with DeWine moving to the center.”
As it turns out, the quote in question belongs to SSP community member & regular commenter Mark. And actually, this is not a case of a lazy reporter failing to understand the difference between posts and comments.
I contacted the author (David Hammer) and he explained what happened. I had written the comment just above Mark's, which makes it plausibly look like the text below my name belonged to me, as opposed to the text above my name. Forgiveable, and no lasting harm done. (Though Mark, I'm sorry you missed your chance to have your name in lights!)
Anyhow, for the record, I don't agree with what was attributed to me. :) I think Sherrod is the stronger candidate - but that is the subject for another post.
P.S. I'm the sole founder of the SSP - you have only me to blame for this site!
Posted at 05:33 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
OH-Sen: Hackett Out
Posted by DavidNYCSo Paul Hackett's out of the Ohio Senate race, and he's not running for OH-02, either. I agree with Adam B at DailyKos: Sherrod Brown better win this.
I also hope Hackett's supporters can get behind Sherrod, too. I was a big Dean supporter during the primaries, and when he lost, I was seriously bummed. But I took a week, got over it, and then got right behind John Kerry. Like I said in a post just below, we're all on the same team here, and we've all got to work together to beat Mike DeWine.
Posted at 12:25 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (31) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, February 13, 2006
OH-Sen: Rahm Urges Hackett to Drop Out, Run for OH-02
Posted by DavidNYCWhoa man, this could get ugly:
National Democrats are turning up the pressure on Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett, openly asking him to leave his campaign for U.S. Senate and take a second shot at a Cincinnati-area House seat that he nearly won last summer.Democrats have privately suggested for some time that Hackett, who has a national Internet following but faces the more experienced Rep. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, in a Senate primary, would be better off running again for the House seat held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. Democrats acknowledge their chances of winning a district that voted 64 percent for President Bush in 2004 are slim without Hackett.
"This isn't talking behind the scenes; I'm saying it publicly. ... I'm petitioning Paul Hackett to run for Congress," Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Sunday.
The Ohio filing deadline is just three days away, so this is a hell of a time for Rahm to start talking about this openly. Personally, I don't really think this is about getting Hackett to run for Congress. OH-02 is a total booby prize, especially if Jean Schmidt isn't the Republican nominee. I think this is Rahm trying to damage Hackett by making him look like the "undesired" candidate, the guy who lacks institutional support.
Of course, I could be wrong - it's possible that Hackett could completely switch gears over the next couple of days. (The filing requirements in Ohio are pretty minimal.) After all Jeanine Pirro did something similar in NY. Then again, Pirro had Pataki pushing her, and Rahm is not the Democratic Governor of Ohio. (Though in some ways, Rahm might be more powerful, given that he's a serious party power-broker, and Pataki is a lame-duck presidential wannabe.)
If Hackett does indeed run for OH-02, and if Schmidt is still the nominee, then we might, possibly might have a fight on our hands. However, I just want to point out two recent examples which align with this scenario. In 2004, Ben Chandler in KY and Stephanie Herseth in SD both won special elections to the House and then both faced quick rematches that November. Herseth won her special 51-49 and the rematch 53-46. Chandler was 55-43, then 59-40. In fact, Herseth's opponent was the same both times. This is a small sample size, but it is not reassuring. The power of incumbency - however brief - can be strong indeed.
(Thanks to desi.)
Posted at 01:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
OH-16: An Update
Posted by DavidNYCTwo items of note on OH-16:
First, I'm told that two people have been petitioning here, Kim Kendall and William Smith. I don't know anything more about these individuals, but at least it's looking like we may have a candidate.
Second, I've also received some internal polling numbers. They are very interesting:
Party Preference
Vote Dem: 46
Vote GOP: 42Re-Elect Numbers
Re-elect Ralph Regula: 39
Consider someone else: 20
Definitely someone else: 23
Amazingly, people say they prefer a Democrat to a Republican in this district! Moreover, Regula's support is soft - just 39%. That said, I think it would be very hard to beat him even in what will be a very bad year for Ohio Republicans. His job approval (63-23) and favorability ratings (66-26) in this poll are quite high.
However, Regula is almost certain to retire after this final run (he's already 81). That means we'll have a very winnable open seat in 2008. These poll numbers demonstrate that we can't abandon this district this cycle, even if our prospects for 2006 are daunting. We need to engage in party-building activities now so that we can compete here later. And at the very least, we need to start by giving the residents of OH-16 a Dem to vote for this year.
Posted at 01:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, February 06, 2006
OH-07, 08 & 16: We Need Candidates
Posted by DavidNYCBarry Welsh's Congressional race tracker site is a terrific resource. However, in some cases, it's over-inclusive, listing candidates whose names have been floated but who aren't necessarily running. For instance, I can tell you that Sharen Neuhardt is not running in OH-07. Tony Bourne, another listed potential candidate, no longer seems to have a working website. Fortunately, a knowledgeable reader tells me that a fellow named Dan Saks is planning on getting into the race. Hopefully this is in fact the case and this candidacy will pan out.
I haven't heard a peep about OH-08, the home of the new GOP Majority Leader John Boehner. We need someone to run here so that we can keep pressure up on Boehner and make sure he stays linked to the GOP's corruption scandals. Yes, this is a super-red district, but simply running against the GOP's top guy ensures you'll get at least some media coverage.
But I'm even more concerned about another district, one that is actually winnable: OH-16. It has actually gotten more Democratic recently: It went to Bush in 2000 by 11 points, but in 2004 by just 8 points. You may recall that this seat is held by Republican Ralph Regula, who demolished one-time blogosphere darling Jeff Seemann the last time out. (Regula won 67-33.)
Welsh's site lists Seemann as our candidate for this district once again, but there are a lot of problems here:
• Seemann's website isn't working.• His Blogspot blog hasn't been updated since 2004.
• His TypePad blog hasn't been updated in over two months.
• He never filed his final FEC report in 2004. Seemann's girlfriend (apparently), posting under Seemann's name, claimed he raised $130K in 2004. However, the reports he did file only cover some $60K in expenditures. That leaves $70,000 unaccounted for.
• He has received a whopping six notices for his failure to file from the FEC, on 10/22/04, 12/17/04, 2/16/05, 5/2/05, 8/2/05 and 11/01/05.
• He was fined $9,075 by the FEC in October of 2005 for his failure to file.
In short, this is not the portrait of a responsible candidate. There is simply no way anyone will take you seriously if you're in arrears to the FEC and haven't even completed all your legally mandatory filings. Moreover, Seemann (with his $130K and broad netroots support) did only two points better than the Dem in 2002 - and that guy didn't raise any money. The bottom line is that we need someone else to run in this district.
Ohio's filing deadline is just 10 days away (Feb. 16th), and we're three candidates short. Given the toll that scandal has taken on the OH GOP, and the seemingly resurgent fortunes of the Ohio Democratic Party, it would be a tragedy if we let three Republican seats go uncontested. Hopefully we'll see some last-minute filings, because 2006 is the year to be a Dem in Ohio.
Posted at 05:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
OH-Gov: Montgomey (R) Dropping out of Race
Posted by DavidNYCRepublican State Auditor Betty Montgomery is dropping out of the race for Ohio governor. That leaves Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Attorney General Jim Petro to compete for the nomination. (In a recent Rasmussen poll, she performed the worst against the only Dem candidate, Rep. Ted Strickland.) Montgomery is instead going to seek the AG nomination (shades of Pirro), an office she once held but was term-limited out of in 2002.
(Thanks to Earl in Ohio.)
Posted at 12:12 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, January 20, 2006
OH-18: Ney to OH GOP: I'm Taking You Down with Me
Posted by DavidNYCWhoa. Now THIS is something:
Ohio Republican Chairman Bob Bennett said Thursday that he'd ask Rep. Bob Ney to resign from Congress if he were indicted on felony charges....
"No party boss tells my constituents what to do," Ney said. "They will decide this thing."
...
Asked if Ney planned to step down if Bennett urged him to do so, Ney said: "I would say if he asked me to step down that he'd better look in the mirror because glass houses break easily." (Emphasis added.)
Did I read that right, or did Bob Ney just accuse the entire Ohio GOP of corruption and threaten to take them down with him? Cuz that's what I think I read. Wow. This could really be explosive. I fully expect Ney to be indicted. If he is, and he carries through on his threat, we will see some serious freakin' fireworks.
(Thanks to OHDemVoter.)
UPDATE: Like cockroaches scurrying from the light! Bob Bennet has already caved in to Ney at warp speed:
Bennett backed off Thursday, saying: ``Rep. Ney has said he believes a fair and thorough investigation will help to clear his name, and I take him at his word. It's important to let that process play out and to get all the facts on the table.''Bennett also told Fox the party would find a candidate to oppose Ney in a primary if he were indicted and refused to step down. Bennett also backpedaled on that statement Thursday.
``We are actively working toward his re-election, and I am confident that he will handle this challenge with the best interest of his constituents in mind,'' Bennett said.
Ney must have something on this guy - on all these guys - for Bennet to backpedal so quickly. What an unbelievable admission of guilt! Now, imagine if Ney gets indicted and refuses to resign. That's gonna get nas-tay!
(Thanks to RBH.)
Posted at 01:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio, Republicans | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
OH-02: McEwen to Challenge Schmidt
Posted by DavidNYCFormer Rep. Bob McEwen has announced that he'll challenge Rep. Jean Schmidt in a primary. McEwen lost to Schmidt in the special election primary last year. He also used to represent southern Ohio's 6th district, but lost to Democrat Ted Strickland (now running for OH-Gov) after redistricting in 1992. (He was actually a rare Republican victim of Newt Gingrich's hyping of the House check-kiting scandal.)
Anyhow, I'll bet that McEwen won't be the only one to take on Schmidt. She's incredibly vulnerable (at least in a primary), given her abysmally weak win over Paul Hackett and her atrocious performance on the floor of the House. However, win or lose, I doubt that lightning will strike twice and that we'll see another competitive race in OH-02 in November.
(Thanks to Georgia10.)
Posted at 10:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
The Politics of Billboards
Posted by DavidNYCBack in November, GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt slandered war hero Rep. John Murtha on the floor of Congress. When we sought to take the fight straight to her back yard, Lamar Advertising refused to run the DNC's billboard, on the grounds that it constituted "negative advertising." (Nevermind this.) That really (once again) dogged my cats. Anyhow, this is what the Schmidt billboard looked like:
To kick off the new year, the Campaign for America's Future has launched a big-time ethics assault on the already-indicted Tom DeLay and the soon-to-be-indicted Bob Ney (OH-18). One feature of this campaign also includes a billboard, stating the simple truth about Bob Ney:
Clear, direct, to the point - and nothing hurts quite like good old Mr. Truth. CAF says that this billboard is already up, "located above the east bound lanes of Rte. I-70 at exit 126, one mile west of State Rte. 37 in Heath, Ohio where Rep. Bob Ney lives." So a pat on the back to CAF, but an obvious question remains: Why were they able to get their billboard up while the DNC was not? Oh CAF, share with us your secrets, so that organizations across the land may torment powerful kleptocrats for the entire election season!
Posted at 09:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, December 10, 2005
OH-Sen: Reading Past the Headlines
Posted by DavidNYCSometimes when I write blog post headlines, I try to be pithy. Most of the time, I just try to be descriptive. But all of the time, if you try to glean some wider meaning from just a headline - whether it's a post written by me or any blogger - you're making a serious mistake. So I gritted my teeth when I read this paragraph from a new piece in In These Times on the Ohio senate race:
Blog opinion on the race is by no means uniform. Many support Brown, but it’s a strange feature of the blogosphere that a newcomer to politics like Hackett is widely considered a known quantity, while Brown, who’s spent his entire adult life in public office, is a mystery. One skeptical blogger on the Web site Swing State Project summed up his reservations with a post titled: “Who is Sherrod Brown?” (Emphasis added.)
Christopher Hayes, the author of this story, has unfortunately revealed that he didn't bother to read past the headline of the post in question. Not only did I recant much of my original point with an update posted at the very top of the entry within a few hours of the initial posting, even during the first go-round I made it amply clear that I was discussing a single, very narrow issue:
I know that Brown has other merits, and I know that name recognition is only one piece of the puzzle. A lot of people more knowledgeable than I have said that Brown has a tremendous organization in Ohio, and has connections throughout the political strata. I haven't yet seen proof of these claims, but I will also grant that this poll does nothing to undermine them, either. It is limited to one question and one question only - namely, how well-known is Sherrod Brown amongst the general public?...
Again I say, this poll does not speak to any other issues. I stress this point because I don't want this post to be misunderstood. I am making a very narrow argument here: On name recognition alone, I don't think Brown supporters can make any kind of strong claims that their guy has the edge. But again, I welcome any refutation of this argument.
The boldface in both of those paragraphs was in the original. Could it be any clearer that the headline, "Who is Sherrod Brown?" did not "sum up my reservations" at all? Next time, Mr. Hayes, please don't read so selectively.
P.S. As to the merits of this old argument, I don't think name recognition matters very much anymore in this race. Both Hackett and Brown are polling equally well against DeWine, and their name rec numbers are pretty close (Brown is 7 points ahead of Hackett).
Posted at 03:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, December 01, 2005
OH-02: Billboard Rejected
Posted by DavidNYCGo read what Tim has to say about the DNC's Schmidt billboard. And be prepared to grit your teeth.
Posted at 09:22 PM in Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
RON Revisited: I Want Answers
Posted by DavidNYCJust came across this piece in Editor & Publisher about the Columbus Dispatch mail poll which I mentioned in the post just below. A syndicated columnist for the Dispatch, Robert Koehler, took the paper to task a few days ago for, allegedly, not critically investigating the mind-boggling failure of its poll regarding the RON ballot measures. Koehler seems to believe that there was nothing wrong with the poll itself but rather everything wrong with the election. Though he doesn't use the word, he's pointing a finger at fraud.
Let me say quite clearly: Without further evidence, I disagree strongly with any such conclusion. But I'm also deeply, deeply unsatisfied with the paper's lazy explanations about why their poll was so awful. The paper's Public Affairs Editor, Darrell Rowland (who was also interviewed by Koehler), only offered this to E&P:
Koehler said the Ohio paper -- which he described as "a member in good standing of the mainstream media" -- instead blamed its inaccurate poll on "the notorious volatility of statewide referendum issues."Rowland said that may have been one reason for the inaccuracies in the Dispatch poll, which was mailed to about 12,600 Ohioans - of which about 1,900 responded. He added that the ballot issues were "incredibly confusing," and that "a lot of last-minute money" was spent to defeat four of them. "It's easier to cause people to vote no than to vote yes," Rowland said.
Two (possible) problems: First, the Dispatch poll was largely accurate on the one non-RON ballot measure (a bond issue). The poll said 53% yes; the actual results were 54% yes. The only other "yes" vote it came close on was Issue 4 (redistricting). The nays were off by enormous margins on every single issue. (Poll | Results)
Second, according to a "voting-rights activist" cited by Koehler, the pre-election ad blitz mostly came from the RON forces, not the anti-RON side. I assume Ohioans in the audience here can either confirm or dispute this.
The Dispatch wants its poll to be taken seriously. The powers that be there are probably keeping their fingers crossed that the next one will be more accurate. If it's not, then perhaps we can conclude that the entire polling methodology is flawed and needs to be re-worked. However, if the next Dispatch mail-in poll is on target, that will raise many more questions about why this one was so skewed. And if the Dispatch wants its reporting to be taken seriously, then it better start looking for answers.
Posted at 09:01 PM in 2005 Elections, Ohio | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-Gov: Coleman Drops Out of Dem Primary
Posted by DavidNYCMichael Coleman, the mayor of Columbus, has dropped out of the running in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Ohio. This means Ted Strickland, who represents OH-06, will be our nominee. I haven't been following this race too closely, so I don't have an opinion as to who would have been the stronger candidate. There wasn't much polling, either - a Columbus Dispatch poll from September showed a close primary race, but with lots of undecideds. Of course, this was the Dispatch's notorious, wildly wrong mail-in poll, so to me, those numbers mean nothing.
Of concern is the district Strickland is leaving behind. Superribbie ranks it as our fifth most-endangered Dem-held seat. And according to Dave Leip's numbers, the district went narrowly for Bush last year (by less than a percentage point). Thanks to Ohio's outrageous gerrymander, that actually makes it Ohio's sixth-most Democratic district. Our guy here is State Sen. Charlie Wilson, whom Superribbie calls an "excellent candidate." (The DCCC also lists one Diane Murphy as running for this seat, but I can't seem to find a website for her.)
Posted at 07:25 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Ohio | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, November 25, 2005
OH-02: Primary Challengers for Schmidt?
Posted by DavidNYCMan. You win a much tougher-than-expected special election in a heavily Republican district and you figure, finally, I've got it made. I'm sure that was exactly the sigh of relief that Jean Schmidt breathed when she narrowly defeat Paul Hackett in August. Her seat should be safe for as long as she likes, right?
Not so fast. It's not just Democrats who are piling on Schmidt for her odious slander of Rep. John Murtha. Republicans are getting in the act, too - and some are not content to let her keep that OH-02 seat all to herself.
But one of Schmidt's fellow Republicans, state Rep. Tom Brinkman, suggested she was out of line."I think there is a certain decorum that people are supposed to use on the House floor, just like we do in Columbus," said Brinkman, who lost the Republican primary to Schmidt in June and is considering a rematch against her next year. (Emphasis added.)
According to Josh Marshall, a second potential challenger has been mooting a primary run as well. I think there's every chance in the world that Schmidt will lose.
But you know, I rather like having Mean Jean around. As the publisher of The Hill noted:
"We have said innumerable times that she would go to Washington and open her mouth and create an embarrassment," said Jim Schifrin, the newsletter's publisher. "She will say things that turn people off like nothing you've ever seen."
Anyone who gets Harold Ford, Jr.'s blood up is actually good for our side. No matter how burned she feels right now, and no matter how cautious Schmidt thinks she'll be in the future, I doubt she's capable of changing. I mean, she had the bad sense (or compulsion) to slander the very senior Rep. Murtha, a Marine, in barely her third month in office. I think she's gonna be the gift that keeps on giving.
Posted at 04:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
OH-18: We're Gonna Need a Bigger Poster
Posted by DavidNYCIf Bob Ney is the poster-boy for Abramoffian corruption in the House (and you thought it was Tom DeLay!), then, as Jesse Lee says, we're gonna need a bigger poster. All of these stories are from just the last two days:
• Rep. Ney Becomes Example in Abramoff Probe [AP]
• Plea Deal Ties Ney to Second Tribe [Roll Call] (sub. req.)
• Ney’s Troubles Are Mounting [Roll Call] (sub. req.)
If you want to see excerpts from the two Roll Call pieces, head over to the Stakeholder. And start working on that poster.
Posted at 01:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, November 21, 2005
OH-18: And Representative #1 Is...
Posted by DavidNYCIn case you haven't seen the news yet, Tom DeLay bagman extraordinaire Mike Scanlon (I think that makes him a bagman's bagman - how sad) just copped a guilty plea with federal prosecutors over his role in fleecing Indian tribes who were trying to lobby Congress. The flipside to all this, of course, are the bribes doled out to greedy Congressman - and the fallout that's soon to ensue.
Like the Libby indictment, some key players in Scanlon's indictment go unnamed. But just like everyone knows that Libby's "Official A" is Karl Rove, "Representative #1" in the Scanlon case is none other than Rep. Bob Ney, Republican of Ohio. Ney is claiming he was an innocent dupe of Scanlon's, and also claims he's cooperating with the prosecutor. But Libby "cooperated," too, and the result was a perjury charge.
The bigger deal is that Scanlon is cooperating, and he seems like the kind of guy who'll gladly screw his superiors if it'll help his cause. (Check out the excerpts from his brazen e-mails at the link above.) My federal white collar crime prof. thinks that it's hard to get these guys to flip, because the Republican establishment fanatically worships loyalty above any other virute, and if you betray your superiors, you'll never get another GOP job. That may be true, but only up to a point. If the choice is prison time vs. no prison time, that has a way of making people talk.
And I think Scanlon's gonna squawk indeed, and I think Bob Ney is seriously screwed.
Posted at 05:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) |