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Sunday, March 05, 2006

TX-28: Early Voting Looks to Favor Ciro

Posted by DavidNYC

Early voting has concluded in the Texas primaries. Chuco, in a DKos diary, crunches the numbers. He compares turnout this cycle vs. 2004:

Webb County (Cuellar's base): Decrease of 2.5%
Bexar County (Rodriguez's base): Increase of 7.3%

Cucho points out a few other salient facts:

• A hot sherrif's race in Laredo (Webb Co.) last cycle increased turnout and helped Cuellar. No such luck for him this time.

• Cuellar's performance in Webb Co. might actually be weaker than the numbers indicate. That's because a contested county commissioner's race in Webb may be driving up overall county turnout this year - but that commissioner's district doesn't overlap with TX-28 at all.

• On the flipside, Ciro's showing may well be stronger. People are turning out for a major state senate race in the San Antonia area (which is in Bexar Co.). Unlike the commissioner's race, this senate district does overlap with TX-28.

But for all thse early voting ruminations, Chuco's final point is the most important: This ain't over yet - not by a long shot. We've got a lot more work to do: Contribute | Volunteer.

Posted at 04:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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I did some phone banking over the weekend; and in my very limited poll, Ciero was the favorite.

So...Ciero will either win outright or force a run-off.

Posted by: Mimi Schaeffer [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2006 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment