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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

CT-02: DCCC Poll Shows a Dead Heat

Posted by James L.

These numbers are from a Joe Courtney press release courtesy of the DCCC. I don't know the MoE, I don't know the polling firm, I don't know whether these are likely or registered voters, and I don't know the trendlines (if any). But, this poll is DCCC-commissioned, and they don't mess around with things like these. So I suspect the numbers are reliable:

Joe Courtney (D): 41
Rob Simmons (R-Inc.): 40

For those who may not remember, Simmons is the House Republican incumbent who holds the single most Democratic seat among the entire GOP caucus. Cook ranks CT-02 as D+7.6, and Kerry outperformed Bush by 10 full points on this ground in 2004. At the same time, however, Simmons edged his Democratic opponent, Jim Sullivan, by 8 points. Simmons has been an annoyingly tough nut to crack for Connecticut Democrats, so a poll showing the incumbent at 40 points should seriously start to make him sweat, if he hasn't been already. If I were Simmons, or any other northeast Republican incumbent, I'd be very much disturbed by tremors like these. The earth just may fall beneath their feet on November 7.

UPDATE: I managed to grab some info on this poll. It was conducted from August 28-30 by Grove Insight, with a sample size of 400, and it's measuring likely voters.

Posted at 04:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Technorati

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My reaction to this poll is mixed. Clearly, Simmons is endangered. Even though he's only technically trailing by one point, a 40% showing by an incumbent is ugly....much more ominous than Heather Wilson's 45% showing. On the other hand, if I'm a Republican representing the bluest GOP-held district in the country and am trailing by only one point with the current environment being what it is, I definitely put my game face on and work the hell out of the incumbent advantage. The onus is on Joe Courtney to make the sale here, and with a 41% poll standing, he still has alot of work to do in nine weeks.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 5, 2006 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Won't some big blogger take an interest in our race (CT-02) and help fundraise for Joe Courtney? We are working hard on the ground, it would be so great to get some financial help for this campaign!

Posted by: MVD [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 5, 2006 08:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment