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Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Take it Back: MO-3

Posted by Tim Tagaris

1995 House break-down "The Republican Revolution": 235 (R) to 198 (D)

2005 House break-down entering the 109th Congress: 232 (R) to 201 (D)

Missouri's 3rd CD: As most of you don't know, I am a strong advocate of getting involved in Democratic primary elections as the principal means of shaping the face of our party. Much of that has to do with Jeff Smith, a little known House candidate who lost by 1733 votes against party establishment favorite, Russ Carnahan in an open-seat race.

Carnahan eventually eeked out what should have been a blow-out victory in November. Now the sharks are circling.

[N]ew U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis - already is making some Democrats nervous. Dick Gephardt generally won re-election easily during his 28 years representing the 3rd District, but Russ Carnahan barely won the right to succeed him. [...]

Veteran Republican consultant John Hancock said, "The 3rd District is definitely in the equation for targeting in 2006." The GOP believes that the right candidate could oust Russ Carnahan.

So, it is with great pleasure that I found the name of Jeff Smith begin to resurface this morning.

The summer's Democratic runner-up, Jeff Smith, is now a visiting political science instructor at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. Smith plans to return to Missouri and says he hasn't decided whether he'll make another bid for any political office.

You'll have to forgive me. Not only am I a big fan of Jeff Smith, but I see his race and situation as a microcosm for the current state of the Democratic Party. As long as the party continues to back status quo candidates, whether for president, congress, or DNC Chair - we will continue to lose elections. Getting involved in primaries will also also help us field candidates in general elections that are more in-line with our ideological beliefs.

I am through waiting for a group of consistent losers to pick which candidates I should support in the months before November. (More numbers below the jump)

109th Congress (2005):

Republicans 232
Democrats 201

108th Congress (2003):

Republicans 229
Democrats 204

107th Congress (2001):

Republicans 221
Democrats 211

106th Congress (1999):

Republicans 222
Democrats 211

105th Congress (1997):

Republicans 225
Democrats 205

104th Congress (1995):

Republicans 235
Democrats 198

Posted at 11:01 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Missouri | Technorati


If only we had a parliament ... I know national polls don't mean that much and Democrats tend to be concentrated, but ... its up to the party to turn these sorts of numbers (fairly consistent) into a victory. One of Newt Gingrich's contributions to his party was to recruit "quality" (if disgustingly right-wing) candidates. I think for the voter, a sense of sincerity rates higher than ideology ...

Ipsos-Public Affairs poll. Dec. 17-19, 2004. N=839 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4.

"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?" If unsure: "If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Republicans or the Democrats?"

Republicans Democrats Neither
12/17-19/04 44 51 4

Posted by: Marc at January 18, 2005 10:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment