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Monday, September 18, 2006

Pollapalooza (AZ, IN, MA, MN)

Posted by James L.

Normally I'd blog these things as they are released, but there's just been too damn many polls lately! I'm on the verge of a pollgasm here!

AZ-05 (SurveyUSA, likely voters, May in parens):

Harry Mitchell (D): 40 (45)
J.D. Hayworth (R-Inc.): 52 (50)
Warren Severin (Lib.): 4
MoE: ±4.1%

The trendlines in this poll may not be as significant because in May, SUSA polled this as a two-way race between Mitchell and Hayworth; this most recent poll includes Warren Severin, a Libertarian candidate. No bones about it, though, this seat will be a pretty tough one. Former Tempe Mayor and State Senator Harry Mitchell is a great fit for the district, but his Tempe base (where he has numerous buildings and statues in his honor) only covers about 25% of a district that delivered 55% of its votes to Bush in 2004.

IN-02 (Research 2000, July in parens):

Joe Donnelly (D): 50 (46)
Chris Chocola (R): 42 (41)
MoE: ?

Research 2000 isn't one of my favorite polling outfits, but this is the fourth consecutive poll that has Donnelly in the lead. This seat was supposed to be a longshot last year. Man, Indiana is looking like a catastrophe for Republicans this November.

MN-06 (SUSA, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Wetterling (D): 41
Michele Bachmann (R): 50
John Binkowski (I): 5
MoE: ±3.9%

A Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies poll conducted before the Sept. 12 primary showed this race as "Republican nominee" 53, "Democratic nominee" 42 (which I felt was a pretty pointless poll at the time given that the primary was all but certain), but SUSA's polling is pretty close to those numbers. Wetterling lost by 8 points to Mark Kennedy in this district in 2004 (while Kerry lost by 14). Can she narrow the gap in time? Will Bachmann's extremism damper her numbers much at all? This is not an undoable race at all, but I can't quite tell if any narratives have emerged here yet.

MA-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, August in parens):

Deval Patrick (D): 46 (34)
Chris Gabrieli (D): 29 (30)
Tom Reilly (D): 22 (30)
MoE: ±3.8%

Incredible mo' for progressive rising star Deval Patrick. I'm rooting for him in tomorrow's primary.

Posted at 11:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Given the SUSA trendlines, look like I'll have to go with my fave, Patrick in the Gov race and in the LG race, I'll go with Worcester Mayor Tim Murray-D and with
Secty State: SS Bill Galvin-D as the likely winners for those spots.
Damned, I want to see Bachmann go down!

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 02:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The only way Wetterling can win in this district is to sling some mud and define the depth of Bachmann's lunatic right dementia. I don't believe Wetterling has slung any mud yet, apparently thinking her cleancut motherly image and previous successes running in the district would drag her across the finish line. I'd like to see another poll in this race before pushing the panic button, but it's pretty clear that Wetterling needs to run some negative ads defining Bachmann as the wingnut kook that she is. Only if the country club Republicans and German Catholic social conservatives of this district are made to appreciate Bachmann's extremist derangement will they consider voting for any Democrat.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't think it has to be (or even should be) Wetterling slinging the mud. This is a DCCC-targeted race--perhaps it'd be more effective to let them take the lead with a harsh negative ad or two.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It seems like the Republicans have been gaining ground in many of the House races and that's not good. A GOP poll showed Weldon leading Sestak by 19 in PA-08, and had GOP incumbants leading by 23 and 25 points in the New Hampshire districts that Kerry carried. The Dems need to go on the offensive hard in the final weeks of the campaign. They need to reveal Bush's tax reform plan that increases middle class taxes in order to pay for the abolition of the estate tax and the capital gains tax. They also need to remind voters about Katrina and the attempt to cut Social Security. If the Democrats don't turn on the heat with these issues in the final weeks, they deserve to lose.

Posted by: Sean [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 06:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not sure if I trust those U-NH polls. DavidNYC had some spot-on criticisms of the polls a month or two ago, mainly that the sampling is skewed in the Republicans' favor.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 07:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you want to read David's criticisms of UNH polls, see here:

And here:

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 07:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James, good point. The DCCC and 527's should carry Wetterling's water for her here. Even when I return home to Minnesota to visit the family, I don't have access to the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market, so I'm not sure what the ad wars are looking like between Bachmann and Wetterling. For Bachmann to have that kind of lead, it would certainly seem the message hasn't gotten across yet what a nutball she is.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 08:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm on Wetterling's email list, and she just went on the air with her first ad this week.

I'm not sure about DCCC ads, but I'd guess they are running some.

Posted by: bawbie [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 19, 2006 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment