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Thursday, July 13, 2006

DCCC Announces the Second Batch of "Red to Blue" Candidates

Posted by James L.

Red to Blue, a DCCC-run program that aids promising challengers in key races through fundraising and communications support, has announced its second round of candidates:

Mike Arcuri (NY-24)
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Chris Carney (PA-10)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Phil Kellam (VA-02)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Linda Stender (NJ-07)
Mike Weaver (KY-02)
Patty Wetterling (MN-06)
Charlie Wilson (OH-06)

All fairly solid choices, but the inclusion of Charlie Wilson, who's running for Ted Strickland's (D) open seat, is somewhat eyebrow-raising. Given Wilson's ho-hum 2Q numbers ($275k raised, $235k CoH), perhaps the DCCC felt they needed to do whatever it takes to shore up his fundraising, even if it means adding him to a program that was set up to turn red seats blue.

Update: My source for Wilson's numbers was off by a considerable margin. His 2Q numbers were somewhate better: $397k raised and $290 CoH. (Consider that Wilson had to drop a lot of coin for his successful write-in campaign to make the ballot.) He'll still need to boost his cash numbers significantly, but I'm feeling a bit better about his campaign now.

Posted at 02:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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I know a lot of people like Mike Weaver, but am I wrong to be skeptical? This is the most conservative district in Kentucky, and is extremely Republican: R+13. By way of comparison, there are just 4 Dem-held seats which are more Republican than this one.

I can think of a LOT of districts which are a lot swingier that are probably better choices: McNerny, Massa, Seals... oh, yeah, and that Hodes guy.

As far as Wilson, this is now the second time they've added someone in a non-red seat (the first was Peter Welch running in VT-AL). Why not just maintain a separate list for "Keeping Blue Blue" or somesuch?

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If it were up to me, I'd scratch Jennings and Weaver and replace them with Massa, McNerney, and Kissell. (And, oh fine, Hodes too.) The DCCC has too much of a sour grapes thing going on when their primary endorsements backfire. (Although the Space inclusion seems to indicate that they're willing to let it slide when the opportunity is particularly juicy.) Those seem like riper opportunities to me, but maybe they know something that we don't.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Jennings, Weaver, and Donnelly for the 3 you mentioned James.

As for keeping blue blue, isn't that what Boxer is doing? ;)

Posted by: Joseph Vogas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good, smart move on VA-02 Kellam. Also glad to see NJ-07 and 3 PA seats!
With Sanitarium & Swann going down down down in the polls, its obvious now that we can do well picking up seats in PA.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another point about Mike Weaver. His opponent, incumbent Rep. Ron Lewis, has reported 2Q numbers and shows he has $1.02 million COH. Weaver has not reported, but as of 4/26, reported COH of $174,000. There do seem to be a lot better races out there for the DCCC's list.

Posted by: hilltopper [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 05:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's great that Sestak is on the list. The PA-7 is a district that's been heavily in the red on a local level in the past but is just about to go blue.

There are a number of close Democratic races in the PA-7, and donations and support for local races not only help the local race, they help Sestak. If Republicans are seriously challenged at every level of government, their campaign money will be spread thinner, and the excitement will boost Democratic turnout.

A great example of a local race in the PA-7 that is going to be very competitive is Bryan Lentz's race for state house. Bryan is an Iraq war veteran and is poised to unseat a longtime Republican incumbent. Supporting him not only sends a great up and coming Democrat to his first public office, it indirectly helps Sestak. And local races can be the places where your money and help can make the most difference.

After all, a rising Democratic tide lifts all boats.

Posted by: Dleigh [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What the heck, why the hell weren't Eric Massa, Paul Hodes on there? They'd better add a name or two before this is over.

Posted by: ArkDem [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why Jennings vs. Massa? FL-13 is open, and it went for Bush by a smaller margin than NY-29.

It better not have anything to do with that "Let's go on TV, bash the party, and threaten an Independent run, because Joe Lieberman's my role model" candidate Jan Schneider.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Patrick Murphy I think is by far one of our most promising candidates. If we can get his name ID up with TV ads, he should have a strong enough ground game to win this thing.

Posted by: jkfp2004 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 06:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The DCCC discredits the entire category by including their corporate shills in advance of the party primaries. Many people think that Jan Schneider, a grassroots progressive, is the better candidate. And I'm sure that there are people who prefer Democrats who are lap dogs of Big Business and they prefer Jennings, Emanuel's candidate. But it should be left to the people of FL-13 to make that decision. It's a disgrace how Emanuel tries to insert his corporate whores-- before primaries and against party rules-- and then refuses to back the winners. Someone above mentioned how Jerry McNerney should have been included. I'm sure any rational Democrat would agree. But McNerney, another grassroots progressive, had the temerity to beat the Inside the Beltway shill in the primary and now Emanuel won't go after Richard Pombo, arguably the worst Republican in the House-- and one the only poll in the district shows losing to McNerney.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 06:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I prefer candidates who don't bash the Democratic party and who promise not to run as Independents.

You have serious double standards.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 07:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

McNerney CA-11 should be on this list. This district has only a 6.5% Gop registration advantage with a 15.51% Declined to State (Indy) registration, It is much more viable than CA-50 was with a 14.33% Gop registration advantage.
The DCCC's Flison, was trounced by McNerney by 24 points, Filson immediately endorsed McNerney. Pombo's ethics issues and lead on destroying environmental laws leave him seriously vulnerable. Pombo only got 62% in the Gop primary and his competitors have not endorsed him. This is ripe for the picking. This exurban SF area district has been moving Dem in recent years.

Massa NY-29 needs to be added too, this is a quality candidate versus a clueless incumbent in a State that will see a coattail wave with Spitzer & Clinton at the top of the ticket.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 14, 2006 01:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We were noting on Daily Kos the other day


that IA-01 and some other Iowa races are heating up and looking promising.

I just noticed that IA-01 moved this month to the top of Chris Cilizza's list at The Fix
as the seat most likely to flip parties this cycle.
I don't always think he's the shrewdest analyst, to put it mildly, but it was still eye-opening.
Robert Novak also listed it as a "likely flip."

I notice ActBlue donors have raised next to nothing for Bruce Braley. $165 so far.

Posted by: Christopher Walker [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 14, 2006 02:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment