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Saturday, July 22, 2006

Hodes, Sestak Are Leaders in Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness

Posted by DavidNYC

Taking a break from bar study here, as you might have guessed. CQ has helpfully put together a list of the top fifty House challengers (PDF) in terms of cash-on-hand. (The list does not include open seats.) I was curious to know how competitive each challenger actually is, though: If you've got $500K, that's all well-and-good - but your opponent has $2M, then you've got a lot of ground to make up. So I plugged in incumbent CoH totals and divided challenger CoH by incumbent CoH to arrive at a "competitiveness" percentage (listed in the far right-hand column). Here are how the top ten challengers shake out:

Rank State District Chal. Party CoH Inc. Party CoH Chal. %age
1 Ind. 8 Ellsworth D $676,475 Hostettler R $195,146 347%
2 N.C. 11 Shuler D $668,745 Taylor R $237,924 281%
3 Wyo. AL Trauner D $234,785 Cubin R $217,871 108%
4 Pa. 6 Murphy D $1,402,793 Gerlach R $1,302,975 108%
5 N.H. 2 Hodes D $442,888 Bass R $453,449 98%
6 Conn. 4 Farrell D $1,376,139 Shays R $1,507,565 91%
7 N.C. 13 Robinson R $466,768 Miller D $540,736 86%
8 Pa. 7 Sestak D $993,746 Weldon R $1,152,012 86%
9 Ind. 9 Hill D $973,305 Sodrel R $1,138,911 85%
10 Conn. 2 Courtney D $988,430 Simmons R $1,283,416 77%

As you can see, two netroots candidates occupy top spots on the list: Paul Hodes at #5, and Joe Sestak at #8. Not too shabby, especially considering that neither Hodes nor Sestak have held political office before. As far as the Democrats on this list go, this group at the top will of necessity be among the most competitive challengers this campaign season.

You can find the rest of the top fifty below the fold.

Rank State District Chal. Party CoH Inc. Party CoH Chal. %age
11 Iowa 3 Lamberti R $820,105 Boswell D $1,093,465 75%
12 N.Y. 20 Gillibrand D $754,333 Sweeney R $1,008,506 75%
13 Neb. 1 Moul D $369,716 Fortenberry R $496,449 74%
14 Va. 2 Kellam D $517,210 Drake R $708,487 73%
15 Va. 10 Feder D $461,247 Wolf R $636,089 73%
16 Fla. 22 Klein D $2,132,126 Shaw R $3,036,936 70%
17 Wash. 8 Burner D $769,822 Reichert R $1,111,841 69%
18 Ga. 8 Collins R $793,234 Marshall D $1,206,784 66%
19 Ore. 4 Feldkamp R $240,170 DeFazio D $367,754 65%
20 Ariz. 5 Mitchell D $666,476 Hayworth R $1,049,710 63%
21 Pa. 10 Carney D $301,245 Sherwood R $479,134 63%
22 N.M. 1 Madrid D $1,258,845 Wilson R $2,051,557 61%
23 La. 3 Romero R $958,990 Melancon D $1,651,630 58%
24 Ohio 1 Cranley D $775,757 Chabot R $1,381,770 56%
25 Ga. 12 Burns R $733,393 Barrow D $1,338,950 55%
26 S.C. 5 Norman R $733,600 Spratt D $1,535,307 48%
27 Ariz. 1 Simon D $381,882 Renzi R $804,654 47%
28 W.V. 1 Wakim R $318,306 Mollohan D $674,593 47%
29 Pa. 8 Murphy D $495,236 Fitzpatrick R $1,132,980 44%
30 Wash. 2 Roulstone R $383,994 Larsen D $886,431 43%
31 N.J. 7 Stender D $650,118 Ferguson R $1,514,084 43%
32 Ohio 15 Kilroy D $775,469 Pryce R $1,818,555 43%
33 Ky. 4 Lucas D $609,801 Davis R $1,555,077 39%
34 Conn. 5 Murphy D $1,021,569 Johnson R $2,621,000 39%
35 Nev. 3 Hafen D $600,587 Porter R $1,609,758 37%
36 Colo. 4 Paccione D $381,685 Musgrave R $1,083,421 35%
37 Ky. 2 Weaver D $335,147 Lewis R $1,022,690 33%
38 Minn. 1 Walz D $252,829 Gutknecht R $826,391 31%
39 Colo. 3 Tipton R $342,905 Salazar D $1,177,634 29%
40 Tex. 17 Taylor R $454,453 Edwards D $1,576,787 29%
41 N.Y. 19 Aydelott D $344,344 Kelly R $1,207,757 29%
42 Ind. 2 Donnelly D $435,215 Chocola R $1,554,483 28%
43 Ill. 10 Seals D $507,975 Kirk R $1,859,582 27%
44 Ill. 11 Pavich D $276,828 Weller R $1,028,626 27%
45 Ky. 3 Yarmuth D $417,929 Northup R $1,854,187 23%
46 Ill. 8 McSweeney R $473,615 Bean D $2,175,474 22%
47 Mich. 8 Marcinkowski D $225,733 Rogers R $1,148,665 20%
48 Fla. 16 Mahoney D $567,634 Foley R $2,913,304 19%
49 N.Y. 19 Hall D $220,835 Kelly R $1,207,757 18%
50 Ohio 12 Shamansky D $262,131 Tiberi R $1,726,991 15%

Posted at 04:46 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Technorati

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I think this is such a useful measure. Really helps compare across races given that some districts are so much more expensive than others.

It's very nice to see that 9 of the top 10 challengers are Democrats.

It's especially nice to see Paul Hodes up there near the top.

Posted by: MissLaura [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 05:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I also think Vernon Robinson doesn't stand a chance against Miller - not in a year like this, and not in a district that has been steadily trending blue. (It was one of only two districts nationwide that went for Bush in 2000 but Kerry in 2004.)

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 05:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thank you for pointing this out. And thanks to everyone who contributed to Paul. One reason Paul was able to achieve this success was the support of the folks who contributed via the Netroots Act Blue page.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 05:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i saw somewhere that hodes had something like 400k in debt. does that mean thats his total personal contributions or does he have to pay that out

Posted by: yomoma2424 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's a result of how the FEC does accounting. He contributed a couple hundred thousand dollars of his own money last time. This time, he's contributed a little over $100,000. He's done them as loans to the campaign, so he could take the money back. But if he doesn't take the money back, it just remains as a debt to the candidate which he doesn't have to pay back. So, he's not really "in debt" the way one would usually use the term, because this debt, being to himself, doesn't really need to be paid back and I think all it would require to eliminate it would be to forgive the debt to himself.

Also, it's important to point out that even without the $50,000 he contributed this last quarter, he still raised about $293,000 in the quarter, and his CoH would still be close to $400,000. The loan to the campaign--made when we had no idea how much Bass had raised or had on hand--brought him even for CoH, but without it he still killed Bass in fundraising for the quarter, and would still be in the top tier of candidates in fundraising success.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 06:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is a great post, DavidNYC, and yet another reason the official DC prognosticators ought to take a closer look at Hodes and back that horse to win.

It might be fun to keep surprising them, but since the Rahm Emmanuels of the world probably listen closely to them, they ought to listen closely to what you have been noticing for months.

Posted by: yankeedoodler [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 06:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

thanks for the response. is this the more or less of the democratic districts in NH? Any update on how Jim Craig is doing versus relative newcomer(elected 2002) Jeb bradley?

Posted by: yomoma2424 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 06:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Could everyone please consider donating money to Victoria Wulsin's campaign? She's running against Jean Schmidt and she might actually be able to pull this off. She's tied with Schmidt in a recent poll and Schmidt was recently booed at one of her fundraising events. To donate go here:




Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 09:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David would you be willing to post those links on the main page so everyone will see it. Wulsin really needs help from the blogosphere to beat Mean Jean.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 09:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NH-02 is the more Dem of the two districts. It has a PVI of D+2.7. NH-01 is R+0.1.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 09:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The late primary in NY state is making NY19 rather interesting. Two of the challengers make the top 50 list (Aydelott and Hall). There are two other challengers Shuldiner and Rigger. Their combined total is $800,000 to Kelly's $1.2 million, which if this money was behind one candidate would bump the race up to 18th on this list.

Posted by: jonahinnyc [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2006 11:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The PA-7 is a great place to watch go from red to blue. It's a district with a 2 to 1 Republican registration (because of a strong Republican machine), but it really is a naturally Democratic district. The PA-7 voted for Clinton, then Gore, then Kerry.

There are great Democrats taking back the local level this year, starting with Joe Sestak for congress, and candidates like Bryan Lentz, an Iraq war veteran poised to unseat a 28-year Republican incumbent for state house. With a little luck and hard work (and financial help from anyone who has the resources to give), Dems should be able to completely take back this heavily Republican district.

Posted by: Dleigh [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 23, 2006 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is a great post, but it ignores one key element: open seats. These represent some of our top pickup opportunities, and we've been performing well financially in many of these races as well.

In MN-06, being vacated by Republican MN-Sen candidate Mark Kennedy, Democrat Patty Wetterling is now leading Michelle Bachmann $562,286 - $383,170 in CoH (~147%).

Anyone have any other numbers on our open seats?

Posted by: Max [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 23, 2006 02:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In NY's 19th, four Democrats fighting each other may spend all their cash in the Sept. 12, primary leaving the winner broke on Sept. 13. John Hall, Judy Aydelott the two leaders and Ben Shuldiner and Darren Rigger the two further behind, need to stop bleeding cash and unite if any Democrat is to beat GOP Rep. Sue Kelly

Posted by: Daniel Millstone [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 05:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well to let you Dem's know about the Indiana and Kentucky races!

Ind. 8 Ellsworth D verses Hostettler R - Hostettler will win this election by about 5 percent. He is a very active person and well liked even with the Dem's in his district! Hard to beat!

Ind. 9 Hill D verses Sodrel R This is a race close to my home. Baron Hill has really ticked off alot of people when he was in congress! He was a person that let the job get to his head! That is what cost him 2 years ago. Sodrel is really personal with the people here! He even has some of the big givers of the Democrats giving to him! Plus the southern Indiana area will vote heavly for him! This race will be close because Baron was a basketball player in the area some 30 years ago! I know that sounds crazy but it is the truth! Still with the recent polls done here and released just recently. Sodrel was up about 8%.

Ky. 4 Lucas D verses Davis R This one is hard to call! Lucas was the past congressman and well liked even with the Republicans. Even more Republicans than Geoff Davis! I do believe it will be close!

Ky. 2 Weaver D verses Lewis R This race was over before it started. Lewis is one of the most likable congressman and well thought of in the 2nd district! He was the first Republican to win the 2nd since the Civil War! Was the one who started the change in 94. Won the special election in 94 against a well groomed opponent! Though Weaver is very similar to Lewis in well thought of, the Democrats have lost Kentucky with the liberal views and this area is very conservative, even though Dem's have a 3 to 1 ratio. Lewis wins this one hands down.

Ky. 3 Yarmuth D verses Northup R Again this is a another race that is over before it started. Northup is very well liked in the Louisville area, even among the African americans! Which is about 20% of the vote. Yarmuth is not liked at all, even among the bar owners of this town! He ran a local newspaper called the Leo, which has a small readership that has a 20ish year old readership! Which has been very active in voting but has a bad reputation among the locals. They have tried to be involved and the races still are not close. Plus the fact that Northup's son just past away will give even more sympathy for her. She will win by more than 10 %.

That's the word here in Louisville, Kentucky
Go Cards and God Bless everyone.

Rather be a smart Elephant than a dumb Jack Ass.

Posted by: Maricleman [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What! This! Site! Needs! Is! More! Exclamation! Points!

God! Bless! Elephants!

Posted by: DHinMICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 10:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment