Monday, May 08, 2006
CA-50: Roach Is OutPosted by DavidNYC
A conservative website is reporting that Eric Roach will not run in the GOP primary against Brian Bilbray. While this might seem like bad news for us, I think it's possible that, had Roach won, he would have driven up turnout among conservatives. These additional voters could have split their tickets between Bilbray (in the special) and Roach (in the primary). Now, at least, we can hope that "true conservatives" stay home because they can't bear the thought of pulling the lever for "liberal" Brian Bilbray. (Confused? As Glen Greenwald has explained in detail, anyone who strays from Bushist orthodoxy even for a moment becomes a liberal in the eyes of movement conservatives.)
If my talk of "ticket splitting" makes no sense and you need a backgrounder on what's going on with the wacky June 6th election, try clicking here.
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Also reported at CQ. http://www.cqpolitics.com/ This cuts both ways, so I just hope it helps.
Hastert came in last week for a $250 per plate fundraiser for Bilbray and Cheney is coming on 5/23. McCain also will come to campaign on for him on 5/31. http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/05/06/news/top_stories/22_20_255_5_06.txt
The R's are clearly worried about this one. And I think we need it (1) to dispel the arguments of the pundits who will otherwise say that we can come close, but cannot win in red districts and (2) to build nationwide momentum.
David, I think you're right about the effect of Roach if he had waged an active campaign for the regular primary. But I'm glad he played it out for as long as he did. As you can tell from Flashreport.com, he served as a magnet for rightwing conservative discontent with Bilbray. Hopefully (crossing my fingers since I don't run in wingnut circles to actually know myself) interest in him has kept some of those voters from crystallizing their support for Bilbray. Perhaps they will opt out of supporting Bilbray at all if they're disappointed by Roach's withdrawal.
Btw, it's hilarious to see the rightwingers call Bilbray a "moderate/liberal" like they did in Flashreport.com. He is neither, though he is apparently not considered reliable as a conservative either. In a recent debate, he stated when asked about abortion that he is pro-choice but opposes abortion on demand. Huh? But he has always been like this. And for a long time people have bought it! Hopefully Busby can put an end to his hypocritical political career once and for all.