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Monday, March 20, 2006

Poll Roundup

Posted by DavidNYC

• OH-06: Hadn't seen this before. A January internal poll from the Wilson campaign put him up 42-24 over Chuck Blasdel. Of course, this survey was taken before the filing debacle. Things may have changed quite a bit since then. (Thanks to reader Sam for alterting me to the poll.)

• WA-Sen: The latest Rasmussen has Cantwell leading McGavick 49-36. McGavick has scored 36 or 37% over the five polls Rasmussen has conducted since early November. Meanwhile, Cantwell has dropped from 52 to 49 in that timeframe - but even Rasmussen says this may just be "noise". Regardless, McGavick is just not gaining much traction here.

• NJ-Sen: Menendez has a 40-36 lead over Kean according to Quinnipiac, up from 38-36 in January. Bush's approval is 31-65, his lowest ever in NJ. I just don't see how Kean can pull this one out with an albatross like that around his neck.

• MT-Sen: Rasmussen also has a new poll on this race. Both Tester and Morrison beat Burns (46-43 and 48-43 respectively). Rasmussen also looked at what would happen if Burns dropped out and Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot replaced him. Those numbers look very bad for us: Rehberg beats Tester by 56-37 and Morrison by 53-41, while Racicot beats Tester by 57-34 and Morrison by 56-36. Ouch. Schweitzer, meanwhile, clocks in with a 73-24 approval rating.

Posted at 02:22 PM in 2006 Elections, Polls | Technorati

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Blasdel may have a debacle of his own. It's being reported that he owes the state more than $50,000 in back taxes. He says it's an error, which is possible. He's been involved in an erroneous claim before. We'll see. Meanwhile, Dick "18% approval" Cheney is in the state campaigning for him today.

Posted by: Ansatasia P [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2006 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ansatasia: Are you sure you're not talking about this?

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2006 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Those Rehberg and Racicot numbers are scary, and unfortunately, exactly what I was expecting. I wish Rasmussen would have held off until March 24 to release that poll.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2006 04:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Burns has already filed. Can he drop out? I dont know Montana rules, but if it's like CA, then Burns name will remain on the ballet. Also his statements and push-back seem to indicate he's running to win. I dont think Rehberg will challenge; but a Rehberg vs. Burns primary, if there was to be one, would be a great contest.

Posted by: Mike [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2006 11:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why is it so close in NJ? Bush's approval is 31% and they just elected a Progressive Govenor who can't speak by a 53-43 margin. So why is The senate race so close? I don't get it...

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 01:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kean's dad was an extremely popular moderate governor back in the 80s who also chaired (I think?) the 9/11 commission. Jr. is riding on his dad's residual popularity.

Plus NJ Democrats tend to be tainted by corruption accusations.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 02:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment