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Friday, April 28, 2006

NY-29: Internal Poll Shows Very Tight Race

Posted by DavidNYC

Eric Massa just released an internal poll (sub. only) with some very positive results (likely voters, no trendlines):

Massa: 40
Kuhl: 43
(MoE: ±4.4%)

What's more, the Roll Call story says that Massa is "not well known to most voters" (they didn't specify exact numbers), while Kuhl has an astounding 33-50 approval rating. Bush, meanwhile, struggles along at 31-69 in the district. Considering Kuhl's beyond-pathetic first-quarter fundraising (only $82K - Massa raised more), I think he's definitely vulnerable. You should definitely consider voting for Massa in Barbara Boxer's poll.

One tangentially related point I'd like to make: If you are a campaign, and you've done an internal poll, and the numbers look good, and you want to make them public, please, please e-mail your polling memo (or summary) to bloggers, and please please post it on your website as well.

It's just silly that the subscription-only Roll Call (which most people don't have access to) is the source for this poll, and it's even sillier that the Massa people don't have this up on their website. I am not saying this because I think bloggers are Teh Awesome and campaigns should suck up to us. I'm saying this because, outside of the few Capitol Hill uber-insider publications (Roll Call, The Hill, Hotline, Cook, Rothenberg), blogs are the only arm of the media which really cares about this kind of stuff.

A campaign releasing an internal poll might get an article or two in the local tradmed if they're lucky. Maybe not even that much. But bloggers love this kind of stuff. You'll get a lot more exposure if you make your polls accessible to us. What's more, if you do it right, you might net a few more donations or signups on your website. (Campaigns should put donation links on every page.) As they say, help us help you.

Posted at 03:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Technorati

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From the email I don't think it was a Massa internal poll but rather a some other Democratic internal poll (DCCC?). They even give swingstate a shout out later in the email.

So while I agree that campaigns need to tap into the resource of the netroots by sharing their information I think the Massa campaign is one that understands this.

Posted by: Green Eggs [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 28, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Roll Call sez: "A new poll prepared for retired Navy commander Eric Massa...." That language typically means it was an internal poll, though perhaps Roll Call got it wrong. (Though I don't see why anyone other than the DCCC would have commissioned a private poll on this race.)

Though that was a nice shout-out. :)

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 28, 2006 05:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Very nice. I had little confidence in winning this seat since it's the most Republican district in New York. Incumbents with 33% approval ratings are extremely unlikely to win....particularly when they're only overperforming their unknown opponent by three points six months before the election. If Kuhl is this unpopular in THIS PART of New York, our chances of picking off Sue Kelly and John Sweeney may have been better than I expected as well.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 28, 2006 08:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Massa is a very strong challenger. Bush is very unpopular in New York right now, even up there. This area is used to having a moderate congressman. Amo voted against Bush's tax cuts, and against the war in Iraq. This is also an area heavily dependant on manufactoring, and also trending Democratic. I think that it is the most promising territory for A Democrat in upstate NY, actually, it's really western NY. Kuhl's unpopular because he's a right wing rubberstamp. He supported privatizing Social Security, voted to extend tax cts that were purely for the rich, against Stem Cell research, (which 89% of New Yorkers support). He votes the party line 92% of the time, that is not what this district is used too. Massa's a strong challenger, he could have stronger fundraising though. But outraising Kuhl like that was great. The national Democrats really need to pump some more money. Both he and Sestak need to be on that new list of Top Democratic Challengers. That'll really help Massa get some money. But, as for Kuhl, with fundriasing numbers like that it looks like he is retiring. Because, strangely conspicously for a congressman who is in for a competitive reelection Kuhl refuses to say, when asked, whether he's running for reeletion. He was the oldest member of the Freshman class at 63. That would give us an even better chance to win this district if Kuhl retires and leaves the Republicans off guard. Plus, the two landslides Spitzer and Clinton are going to recieve are going to help Massa.

Posted by: ArkDem [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 30, 2006 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment