Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday Independent Expenditure Round-Up
Posted by James L.Lots of goodies to be found in Monday night's independent expenditure filings. Here are some highlights:
• The NRCC is playing it safe: they're going up on the air to defend Rick Renzi (AZ-01), Doug Lamborn (CO-05), Mark Souder (IN-03), Ron Lewis (KY-02), and Gil Gutknecht (MN-01). The defense of Souder is especially surprising, given the rock-ribbed Republican nature of the district, but an internal poll that they also paid for today might explain why. In total, they've spent nearly $125k defending Souder, with that figure increasing dramatically soon once the ad time is booked in the next day or so. When the NRCC has to put up precious dollars defending their hold on James Dobson's home turf, you know that we've done a good job expanding the playing field.
• Aside from their top-tier targets, the DCCC is stepping up to the plate with advertisements in NH-02 both in support of Paul Hodes and against Charile Bass, and in NY-25 with ads supporting Democratic challenger Dan Maffei. More ads are on the way against incumbents Cathy McMorris in WA-05 and Lewis in KY-02.
• MoveOn.org is launching a sneak attack on the suddenly vulnerable Republican Rep. Melissa Hart (PA-04) with a $240,000 ad buy and another $167,000 on attack ads and mailings against Thelma Drake (VA-02).
(Edit--I originally titled this diary "Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up". I guess it's one of those weeks where I'm wishing we could just get on with it!)
Posted at 11:42 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
NRCC/NRSC Target List Leaked?
Posted by James L.Chris Bowers has managed to score a stunning leak from the GOP: a seemingly full list (although it looks about a week out of date) of seats that the NRSC and NRCC are defending and targeting this cycle, complete with internal "rankings" of the likelihood of these seats changing hands.
The preliminary findings: they've written off Conrad Burns and Michael Steele in the Senate, and Graf, Sekula-Gibs, Padgett and Sherwood in the House, while also identifying 2 other Senate seats and 10 other House seats as leaning towards Democratic control.
Check it out; it's well worth a look. One of the most eye-opening things is that the NRCC is listing OH-02 as a toss-up (a race that the DCCC has yet to intervene in, although the NRCC mysteriously lists it as a race with DCCC ads, according to Bowers' chart).
Update: On second thought, doesn't this thing seem like it's a pile of bullshit? The DCCC is NOT running ads against Walsh, Schmidt, Bass, Porter, or Schmidt, contrary to what this list is telling you. There is no way the NRCC could be that sloppy.
Posted at 05:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 20, 2006
MO-Sen: Michael J. Fox's Powerful Message
Posted by James L.It's not difficult to imagine the political fatigue of Missourians after months of negative ads cluttering the airwaves, but it's hard not to find a message like this resonant.
You can help Claire here.
Posted at 06:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Missouri | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 19, 2006
House and Senate Races Round-up: Cash, Ratings Changes, Polls & More!
Posted by James L.So much news has been buzzing around this week, and boy, has it ever been difficult to restrain myself and study for my midterms while the walls of Fortress GOP come tumbling down. But now that I have a little spare time, let's take a look at recent developments:
• MT-Sen: Harry Reid has promised Jon Tester a seat on the Appropriations Committee should he defeat Conrad Burns this November. Tester has promised to make sure that Montana gets its fair share of earmarks, while at the same time ensuring that the process receives "full public scrutiny". Seems like it could be a tough balancing act for most unprincipled politicians, but something about Jon Tester feels different. This development should help boost his argument that Montana has nothing to lose by embracing change this year.
• Party committee fundraising receipts are in for the month of September: the DCCC raised $14.4m and entered October with $36m cash-on-hand. The DSCC raised $13.6m and had $23m CoH as the month began. The DNC raised $5.6m in September (with an additional $1m coming in during the last two days, reportedly) and entered October with $8.6m CoH. The DNC has taken out a loan in the ballpark of $5m to $10m to help aid the DSCC's efforts to run the table in the Senate (a very wise strategy), and also expects to spend $25m on "election day activities".
Meanwhile, the NRCC raised $12m in September, and ended the month with $40m CoH. The NRSC raised an underwhelming $5.1m and trailed the DSCC in CoH as well, with $12m in the bank. The RNC had a formidable $26m CoH, and they plan to push a large chunk of that money into shoring up their Senate seats (a job that the NRSC is haplessly underperforming at).
The DCCC has made some noises about taking out a large loan and pumping money into 2nd tier districts, but their most recent expenditure--$12 million--has mostly been funneled to top-tier targets. The clock is ticking on the chance to expand the battlefield. In 2004, the DCCC took out a loan to help fund for its defense of redistricted incumbents in Texas (a largely futile task, save for the defense of Chet Edwards), and I see no reason not to turn the tables around and launch a salvo deep into 2nd and 3rd tier territory. I'm sure that the DCCC has more planned--a lot more--but the exact scope is not yet clear.
• Ratings changes galore! Charlie Cook (10/18):
ID-Gov (OPEN): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
RI-Gov (Carcieri): Lean Republican to Toss Up
TX-Gov (Perry): Solid Republican to Likely RepublicanHOUSE RATINGS CHANGE:
AZ-01 (Renzi): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-50 (Bilbray): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
ID-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
KS-02 (Ryun): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CQ Politics (in the last 7 days):
WA-08 (Reichert): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
PA-04 (Hart): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
NE-03 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
PA-07 (Weldon): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
ID-01 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
CO-Gov (OPEN): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
RI-Sen (Chafee): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
NM-01 (Wilson): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
OH-15 (Pryce): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
NC-11 (Taylor): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
MA-Gov (Open): No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored
• NY-26: From the seemingly Bad News Dept., SUSA has a new poll showing Tom Reynolds back on top of Jack Davis, by a 49-46 margin. That's still pretty hairy, and SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points, indicating that this race is even tighter than these numbers suggest. I'd wait for another poll (which SUSA promises shortly) before making too many assumptions. But one assumption that would be unhealthy for us to make is that Tom Reynolds' political career is over.
• KY-03: From the Great News Dept., SUSA has another poll showing Democratic challenger John Yarmuth running neck-and-neck with entrenched Republican incumbent Anne Northup (likely voters, 9/29 results in parens):
John Yarmuth (D): 48 (44)
Anne Northup (R-Inc.): 47 (50)
MoE: ±4.3%
Lots of people wrote Yarmuth off, including me, given Northup's solid cred as a battle-tested, effective campaigner. It looks like we could end up with a big egg on our faces, though. (One guy who never did, however, is the Bluegrass Report's Mark Nickolas.) From a distance, Northup's campaign doesn't seem to be engaging Yarmuth effectively, and the Democratic lean of Louisville is putting her at serious risk this year. Northup still has an insane amount of resources to spend on apocalyptic TV ads, and it might help her seal the deal. Or it may not. If you're in the area, Get Out The Vote. This election is about picking up as much low-hanging fruit as possible--it's about base motivation. The Republicans appear to be ready for the challenge. How about the Democrats? It's up to you to write that story.
Posted at 05:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 16, 2006
CT-Sen: Schlesinger (R) Hits it Out of the Park
Posted by James L.Or, at least, that's what I've been hearing about today's three-way debate between Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman and Republican stalwart Alan Schlesinger. I was in class, but all of the post-debate reports I've read have said that Schlesinger projected intelligent, principled conservative ideas, genuine emotion, and spirit. If I were Joe Lieberman, I'd start getting nervous about chunks of Republicans returning home to vote for the principled conservative of this race: Alan Schlesinger.
Posted at 03:40 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 09, 2006
Gallup: Democrats Have a 23-Point Lead
Posted by James L.Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.
The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.
Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.
She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."
Last month, Gallup had Democrats and Republicans tied at 48% each among likely voters. There are lots of caveats about generic ballot polls--namely, the pesky tendency for voters to voice their party preference, and yet remain reluctant to actually fire their incumbent Representative at the polls. Still, 23 points is full-scale disaster territory. Even the much-vaunted GOP turnout operation can't stop that kind of bleeding.
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
CT-Sen: Cutest Ad Ever
Posted by James L.Ain't nobody who can do it like Hillsman can.
Posted at 11:06 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 29, 2006
VA-Sen: Say Hello to Spitgate
Posted by James L.First it was Macacagate. Then it was Deerheadgate, and, uh, Rugbygate. The slow drip of questions surrounding George Allen's racist past have turned into an all-out deluge this week with witness after witness stepping out of the woodwork and revealing more incidents of Allen's legacy of racism.
But forget about all that stuff for a moment. Lost in the shuffle of these explosive revelations is another one of Allen's nasty habits that speaks volumes to his character: George Allen likes to spit on women's feet. It sounds ridiculous, I know, but bear with me and say hello to Spitgate.
First, check out this Dailykos diary posted by a former writer for a Southwest Virginia newspaper to set the mood (emphasis added):
Mr. Allen visited our town to announce a major contract for the local defense plant. I was there because my editor had sent me. [...]Governor Allen rode up in a big recreational vehicle. He looked so tall as he came out of the house-on-wheels. He was wearing a nice suit and his hair was neatly combed. He smiled and worked his way into the platoon of defense workers, who seemed to be all men. I looked around and realized I was the only female standing on the pavement in the sunshine. How about that?
I listened to what the governor was saying. My editor had told me Mr. Allen would talk about jobs and how wonderful this new defense contract was. I listened carefully, but the governor did not say a word about jobs. Instead, he made a few jokes with the workers, then he pulled a small, flat can from his jacket pocket. He asked if anybody else "dipped." One of the workers said yes, he dipped, but not the same brand, and all the men laughed.
Mr. Allen used his fingers to pinch out a clump of the finely chopped tobacco; he mashed it into his mouth and grinned, licking his lips. His bottom lip pooched out where he had lodged the tobacco. The other men chuckled like they were having a grand time.
Then the governor walked toward a building with some men who were not part of the platoon of workers. These other men were clearly Important; they wore suits. One of the suits had already told me I was not allowed to go into the building because a defense plant has Secrets.
I followed along as the governor walked, waiting to hear him say something about jobs. The situation began to look as if I would have to return to the newspaper office without hearing him say anything about "our fine workers." I didn't understand; I had to ask a question.
I stepped near the governor and smiled, told him my name and that I wrote for the local newspaper. Then I asked him a softball question, what some reporters call a "set-up."
"Does Southwest Virginia need these jobs?" I asked.
He stopped and looked straight at me. He had to look down at me, because he stood so tall in those cowboy boots. I thought I spotted a twinkle in his eye, and for a moment, I suspected he might give a humorous, light-hearted answer. Then he leaned forward and looked all the way down at the pavement. I figured he was planning a perfectly crafted answer to my question. I put pen to paper, ready to take it down. His lips puckered as if he might speak.
Then, the Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia gathered up a glob of tobacco-laced saliva. He used his lips to squirt it out, as if he had practiced. The spit landed just at the tip of my shoe. He grinned, but didn't say a word. Then he walked into the building.
Rude, boorish, and completely disgusting, to be sure, but it's just a weird isolated story, right? Wrong. You don't have to dig deep to find numerous eerily similar stories on Allen's behavior around women when he's got a nasty gob of tobacco in his mouth. In fact, when I first read that diary, my mind was jarred as I recalled a story that Sarah Carter, the daughter of Nevada Senatorial candidate Jack Carter and granddaughter of President Jimmy Carter, shared in a July DailyKos comment:
My husband’s family lives in Virginia. Several years ago, his little sister went with a friend to a parade where George Allen was making an appearance, and her friend’s Mom got a chance to speak to Allen. While they were talking, he was chewing tobacco. He spit on the ground and a fleck of brown spittle landed on my sister-in-law’s shoe. She was horrified.So now you know: George Allen spits on little girls.
Sarah
Seeing a pattern emerge yet? No? Well, here's some more, courtesy of the New Republic's Ryan Lizza:
It's credible enthusiasm given that, this afternoon, Allen resembles a froufrou version of Toby Keith. He is wearing a blue button-down shirt and brown pants accented with a fat brass belt buckle that says virginia in stylized, countrified letters. And, of course, he's wearing the cowboy boots. They are black, broken in, and vaguely reptilian. From his back pocket, he removes a tin of Copenhagen--"the brand of choice for adult consumers who identify with its rugged, individual and uncompromising image," according to the company--and taps a fat wad of the tobacco between his lip and gum using an impressive one-handed maneuver. As the scrum breaks up, Allen turns away and spits a long brown streak of saliva into the dirt, just missing one of his constituents, a carefully put-together, blonde, ponytailed woman approaching the senator for an autograph. She stops in her tracks and stares with disgust at the bubbly tobacco juice that almost landed on her feet. Without missing a beat, Allen's communications director, John Reid, reassures her: "That's just authenticity!".
"Authenticity," John, or just another one of George Allen's disturbing personal habits? Or just another one of his ways of demeaning people?
No, I'm not done yet. There's yet another story of Allen's salivary dark arts, this time from the letters section of the Bristol Herald Courier. The original page seems to be scrubbed, but luckily Google's cache caught it for posterity:
I was not surprised by Sen. Allen’s crude remarks aimed at a Democratic campaign worker. Several years ago, while I was engaged in research at the Dickenson County courthouse, I heard that then-Gov. Allen was on his way to a groundbreaking for the new Red Onion prison. A friend and I drove up to the site, not realizing until we arrived that it was a Republican-only event.Allen was escorted by a politician who, noting our presence, made some comment to him and pointed at us. We stood with a small semi-circle of onlookers waiting to shake Allen’s hand, but he deliberately skipped the two of us and continued shaking hands with others in the line.
He made a few remarks to the crowd and then stood with his back to us, turning once to aim a jet of tobacco spit directly at our feet. Although he had never met us before, he made us well aware of his sentiments. A small incident, yes, but very revealing of his attitude. He did not intend to treat Democrats with the slightest common courtesy.
So there you have it. Four separate stories of people stepping forward with George Allen's saliva on their shoes. The consensus is pretty clear: George Allen gets his kicks by spitting on or at people. Coincidentally, all of them have been women.
Posted at 01:03 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 28, 2006
MT-Sen: Conrad Burns Continues to Enjoy Taste of Own Feet
Posted by DavidNYCOh man. Conrad Burns must surely have the worst case of pedontophilia (aka "foot-in-mouth disease") known to man. He just can't shut up and stop making inappropriate remarks:
Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, who has gotten into hot water before for comments seen as disparaging various groups, joshingly remarked Thursday on the number of Italian-Americans at the Federal Aviation Administration.The Montana senator, facing a tough re-election fight against Democrat Jon Tester, was heading an aviation subcommittee hearing of the Commerce Committee when two FAA officials, Michael Cirillo and Nicholas Sabatini, introduced themselves as witnesses.
"I'm wondering if that's all they're hiring," Burns said of the federal agency.
Jebus. Burns is lucky the WaPo is covering for him, because these remarks are pretty awful. ("Joshingly" remarked? Man is that stilted.) Just imagine if he had said something similar about two black men or two Jews. This really is an addiction for Burns, though:
Also during Thursday's hearing, Burns asked witness Matt Andersson, senior aviation consultant for CRA International, about the spelling of his name. Andersson said it's the Swedish spelling."Oh, ja," Burns replied in a mock Swedish accent.
Republicans will tell us, as they always do, that we can't take a joke - in fact, that's the line Burnsie's flack is already taking. But if Conrad wants to keep making inappropriate statements in public settings, that only makes our job easier.
(Hat tip.)
Posted at 08:57 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Montana | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
CT-Sen: PFAW Endorses Lamont
Posted by DavidNYCThe People for the American Way just endorsed Ned Lamont. They sum up the case for him - and against Joe Lieberman - with devastating brevity:
“Ned Lamont strongly backs public schools, while Joe Lieberman has voted for vouchers,” Collins said. “Ned Lamont fully supports privacy rights, while Joe Lieberman said legislative intervention was appropriate in the Terry Schiavo case. Joe Lieberman voted to confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court and voted against a filibuster of the Samuel Alito nomination; Ned Lamont would forcefully oppose far-right nominees. And on other issues, from church-state separation to marriage equality to demonstrating a willingness to stand up to President Bush, Ned Lamont is clearly the better choice.”
It's heartening to see a progressive interest group understand the importance of caucus unity. I'm sure it must be tempting for many organizations to endorse "independent" Joe Lieberman to prove their foolish "non-partisan" credentials, so I'm glad to see that PFAW did not take the bait.
Ned Lamont, netroots candidate!
Posted at 03:56 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, September 23, 2006
HI-Sen, HI-02 Primary Results Open Thread (Akaka Wins!)
Posted by James L.It's primary day in Hawaii today. I'm not sure when results will be posted, but it looks like the polls will close around midnight eastern, and presumably results will be posted at the Hawaii Office of Elections website (thanks, Predictor).
I'm weirdly nervous about Akaka-Case given the anti-incumbent sentiment this year (Lieberman, Schwarz, McKinney, Wynn, & Chafee all knocked off or having received close calls) but hopefully Daniel K. will pull through today. I'd be seriously depressed if we'd have to deal with Ed Case in the Senate representing a state that doesn't require his brand of rightward-skewing "centrism" in order to be viable in a general election.
Discuss predictions, results, and thoughts here.
Update: Bumping this one up. The Honolulu Advertiser has a results page up... but this page looks like the best one to follow.
Update (II): It's an Akaka victory, 55-45. Normally I'd say that that's a hairy margin of victory for a incumbent senator, but this primary could have been much, much nastier. Kudos to Case for not going the Lieberman route.
Posted at 10:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Pick a Patriot, Any Patriot...
Posted by James L.Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots PAC is having another round of voting in its Pick a Progressive Patriot competition, this time for Senate challengers. More than just a $5,000 PAC donation, the winner will get a fundraising appeal by Feingold and his PAC. There are lots of good choices here who could use the scratch: Brown, Tester, McCaskill, Lamont, Carter, Webb... I don't know how you'll be able to make your mind. But once you do, vote here.
Posted at 05:57 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Fundraising | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
AZ-Sen: Pederson (D) Gains Ground on Kyl... But Why?
Posted by James L.Riddle me this...
SUSA has a new poll on the Arizona senate race showing some pretty surprising mo' for Democratic challenger Jim "Uncle Moneybags" Pederson (likely voters, July in parens):
Jim Pederson (D): 43 (40)
Jon Kyl (R): 48 (52)
MoE: ± 4.3%
So how, exactly, does a race that's only been competitive in the fantasy world of Zogby Interactive, with an incumbent Senator whose approval rating has been trending upward in the last few months (admittedly, 53% isn't stellar, but it's fairly solid), and a challenger who's been swamping the airwaves with TV ads for over five months to little noticeable effect in the polls, suddenly tighten to a five-point margin?
I'll be damned if I know. But I won't complain if this isn't an outlier:
Kyl gets 81% of Republican votes. Pederson gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents break 5:3 for Pederson. Kyl leads by 13 points among White voters. Pederson leads by 16 points among Hispanic voters, who make up 16% of the Arizona electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model.
Those are some rock-solid indie numbers for Pederson. In July, Pederson trailed Kyl by 10 points among independents. Why the sudden and dramatic conversion?
As an aside, Kerry edged Bush by 13 points among Latino voters in Arizona in 2004, which was a nine point improvement for Bush over 2000, according to CNN's exit polls. I'd like to think and hope that Pederson can post some better numbers from this community against a reactionary like Kyl. The long-term success of the Democratic Party may hinge on maintaining and solidifying a strong political association in this emerging voter bloc.
Update: The Phoenix Business Journal offers a hypothesis:
That spread is tighter than most previous polls and comes after a barrage of advertisements by Pederson faulting Kyl for failure to support a minimum wage hike and for being too cozy with oil and pharmaceutical companies.
A few weeks ago, I heard that the DSCC had earmarked something in the ballpark of $1.6m for this race. At the time, I thought that move was crazy, but if this poll is accurate (check out the comments section for some healthy skepticism), maybe it isn't such a bad idea after all.
Posted at 10:45 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, September 17, 2006
HI-Sen: Akaka Leading Case by 13
Posted by James L.The Honolulu Advertiser has a new poll out showing incumbent Democratic Senator Daniel K. Akaka leading his Liberesque conservative Democrat primary opponent, Rep. Ed Case, by a pretty comfortable margin over a week a way from the Sept. 23 election:
Daniel Akaka (D-Inc.): 51
Ed Case (D): 38
Undecided: 11
MoE: ±4%
Depending on how those undecideds will break, Akaka is looking pretty good on the 23rd. Thank God.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
VA-Sen: Help Support the Most Effective Ad of the Year (and New SUSA Poll)
Posted by James L.I just want to reiterate what's been said by Markos and Stoller. This ad by VoteVets PAC is by far the most brilliant and effective ad I've seen this cycle:
Truly chilling. VoteVets has already gone up on the air in Virginia to help defeat George Allen, but they'd like to expand their air war to other states with vulnerable incumbent Republican senators up for re-election who voted against proper body armor. If you have the means, please consider donating to VoteVets PAC. If you contribute directly via their website, you'll get a chance to vote for the next senator who'll receive their own version of this ad aired against them. I can't tell you how thrilled I am to have an ad this crystal clear and effective on our side this year, but we need to expand this battle beyond Virginia. So if you've got any Big Money friends who are itching to help the Democrats take back the Senate this year, tell them to cut a $5,000 check to VoteVets PAC. It could be the most effective political investment you'll make this year. VoteVets is the real deal, too; just check out their list of advisors: Gen. Wesley Clark, Paul Hackett, Bob Kerrey, Leslie Gelb, etc.
And we'll need effective ads like this one by VoteVets in order to counter right-wing hysteria messages like this one.
UPDATE: Via the Political Wire, SurveyUSA has a new poll out today showing Allen edging Webb 48-45, with a 4.6% MoE. This is the exact same result as a poll done by SUSA three weeks ago, during the height of the macaca controversy, showing that Allen's racist gaffe has not been erased from the minds of voters (and given that Allen apologized again for the incident today, he knows he's in trouble).
Posted at 04:30 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
CT-Sen, TN-Sen: New SUSA Polls
Posted by James L.SUSA just released two new Senate polls today, one on the Tennessee Senate race (likely voters):
Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 48
Bob Corker (R): 45
MoE: ±4%
To the best of my knowledge, this is the first SurveyUSA poll of the Tennessee Senate race, so I don't have any trendlines for you, but this confirms the general tightening of the race shown in the (far less reliable) Rasmussen and Zogby Interactive polls, as well as Ford's own internals. Like I've said before, Democrats have a silver bullet that they can use against Corker--namely, the fact that he's completely unfit to hold public office after his abysmal record on providing emergency services as mayor of Chattanooga came to the fore. The Ford campaign and the DSCC should drive this theme hard, because America can ill-afford someone as irresponsible and reckless as Bob Corker in the Senate.
The second poll is far less heartening, but unsurprising:
Ned Lamont (D): 38
Joe Lieberman (Con. for Lie.): 51
Alan Schlesinger (R): 7
MoE: ±4%
Lamont allowed Lieberman to shape the post-primary narrative by taking a week off for a family vacation. While I'm sure Ned was exhausted, I'm afraid that this wasn't a tactically smart move. Ned has some catching up to do. Here's some key data:
Lieberman leads 6:1 among Republicans, 3:2 among Independents. Lamont leads 3:2 among Democrats. 83% of the Democrats who voted for Lieberman in the 08/08/06 Democratic Primary, which Lamont won by 4 points, stick with Lieberman as an Independent in the General Election. 16% of Democrats who voted for Lieberman in the Primary switch to Lamont in the General. 17% of Republicans support the Republican Party's nominee, Schlesinger.
It's been suggested on DailyKos and elsewhere that Ned should offer Schlesinger the chance to debate. At this point, why not? Anything to build up Schlesinger's profile and raise awareness of his conservative stances in order to shave off some support for Lieberman from his right flank would go a long way towards helping Lamont right now. I'm sure Schlesinger would jump at the chance (he needs all the free media he can get), and Lamont could bill it as a "major parties debate" separate from the three-way debates with Lieberman that should come later.
Posted at 06:59 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut, Tennessee | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, September 11, 2006
PA-Sen: Finally, Casey Shows Some Teeth
Posted by James L.You remember that saucy book by Rick Santorum? It Takes a Family: Conservatism and the Common Good? It was filled with such pearls of wisdom like this one:
Santorum questions whether both parents really need to work:In far too many families with young children, both parents are working, when, if they really took an honest look at the budget, they might confess that both of them really don't need to, or at least may not need to work as much as they do. And for some parents, the purported need to provide things for their children simply provides a convenient rationalization for pursuing a gratifying career outside the home. [Pg. 94]
It's filled with tons of wingnutty shit, like saying that it's inappropriate for unwed mothers with low levels of eduction to go back to college in order to better their job prospects. And holding it against mothers of any kind to hold a job outside their home in order to support their family. And calling public schools "weird". And supporting Social Security privatization.
Really, his whole book was filled with about two dozen negative ads waiting to be written. I've been waiting for Democratic challenger Bob Casey to release a few, but I guess he felt he didn't need to so far (and, when you've been 10 to 20 points ahead in the polls for months, maybe he had a point). However, in the last few weeks, Santorum's thrown a significant amount of resources into an effective barrage of TV advertising across the state, and the insiders are buzzing about a rumoured Casey internal poll showing Santorum trailing by only three points. It could very well be a b.s. story, but somehow, I wouldn't be surprised if it were true--especially now that I see Casey baring some fangs. A visit to the DSCC's website shows a new attack ad on Santorum prominently on the page, and it goes right for the jugular, attacking Santorum for criticizing working moms for earning the necessary incomes in order to put food on the table for their families. Bob Casey has the ad up on his website here, but the tech genius responsible for the website did a horrendous cropping job with it, so I'd recommend the DSCC version instead.
I'm not sure what kind of excuses Santorum will throw up for his shameless attacks on working families, but who knows, maybe he'll get his kids to defend himself again.
Update: Thanks to Mike at the DSCC, we now have the ad up on YouTube:
Again, good stuff. Casey is starting to hit where he needs to hit.
Posted at 01:22 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, September 10, 2006
NV-Sen: Jack Carter Hospitalized, Jimmy Steps In
Posted by James L.First off, our thoughts go out to Jack Carter, who was hospitalized on Thursday for complications from colitis. Thankfully, Jack's doctor says that he's responding well to treatment. Let's wish Jack a speedy recovery so he can go back to pounding the pavement in the Nevada Senate race this fall.
That said, the Carter For Nevada campaign couldn't have found a better substitute for Jack at his recent campaign events:
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA -- The 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter, delighted the crowd as a surprise guest speaker this afternoon at the Fiestas Patrias (Mexican Independence Day Festival) at Freedom Park in Las Vegas.President Carter and former First Lady Rosalynn Carter arrived in Las Vegas this morning to visit their son at Summerlin Hospital, where he is recovering from complications from severe colitis. However, by midday, Jack Carter – the Democratic nominee for United States Senator – was responding well enough to treatment that his father felt comfortable leaving his bedside to speak on Jack’s behalf.
The President – accompanied by his grandson, Jason Carter -- addressed the crowd in Spanish, urging those who haven’t already done so to register and then to vote in this fall’s election. He directed members of the largely-Hispanic audience to a tent at the festival at which they could conveniently register.
Later, President Carter told reporters that his son’s campaign is not deterred by his illness, and that Jack is eager to resume campaigning. The President said, “The campaign is well organized.” He added that he is upbeat about his son’s chances in the November 7th election.
"Jack’s opponent has been among the most subservient members of the United States Senate," President Carter said, pointing to John Ensign’s voting record, which is in nearly-total support of Bush administration policies.
How cool is that? Anyway, please put Jack Carter and his family in your thoughts this week. Get well soon, Jack!
Posted at 09:43 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nevada | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Sen: Mason-Dixon Has Webb Within Four
Posted by James L.Mason-Dixon, one of the best in the biz, confirms what we've been seeing in the recent SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls (with Zogby Interactive being just a little too optimistic for Webb)--Webb has the big mo' (likely voters, July in parens):
Jim Webb (D): 42 (32)
George Felix Allen, Jr. (R): 46 (48)
Undecided: 12 (20)
MoE: ±4%
Here's the Macaca Effect at work:
While most voters said the “macaca” comment did little to change their minds about the race, Allen’s unfavorable rating increased from 23 percent to 31 percent between July and September. The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent, with Webb the apparent beneficiary of that shift. Webb’s support among black voters increased from 39 percent to 73 percent.“It’s pretty easy to draw a straight line from that to the 'macaca,’ ” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.
[...]
Allen has a 9-point lead over Webb in Southwest and Southside Virginia and greater margins in the Shenandoah Valley and the Richmond area. But Webb holds a 13-point lead in vote-rich Northern Virginia, an area that was critical to the 2005 victory of Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
If Webb can energize the NoVA vote, Allen is in for a world of pain in November. The best part about these numbers is that they were taken before Webb got on the air in any meaningful way. Webb's first TV ads start tomorrow, I believe, and, as MyDD notes, Schumer has hooked up Webb with Tim Kaine's ad guy. Webb is still a relative unknown quantity in Virginia; as his fundraising and airtime escalates, the chances of this race tightening, or even shifting to Webb are much greater.
The recipe for victory is here. All we need is for Webb and the DSCC to step up and make sure it happens.
Posted at 12:53 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
CT-Sen: It's a Trap!
Posted by DavidNYCTurns out old Admiral Ackbar was right.
"It's a trap!"
From the LieberBlog (no link, find it yourselves):
Democratic deliberationIs this the Lamont campaign's idea of civil discourse?
[Some snarky comment.](Posted in our comments by LiebermanForLieberman at 1:23 pm on 09.06.06 - )
So predictable, those Con-for-Lie folks.
Posted at 06:52 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Gallup Releases Eight New Gov & Sen Polls
Posted by DavidNYCAnd fortunately for us, TPM Cafe has handily collected them in one place:
| Race | Dem | GOP |
|---|---|---|
| MN-GOV | Hatch (D) 44% | Pawlenty (R) 43% |
| PA-GOV | Rendell (D) 57% | Swann (R) 35% |
| OH-GOV | Strickland (D) 52% | Blackwell (R) 36% |
| PA-SEN | Casey (D) 56% | Santorum (R) 38% |
| OH-SEN | Brown (D) 46% | DeWine (R) 40% |
| MT-SEN | Tester (D) 48% | Burns (R) 45% |
| MO-SEN | Talent (R) 50% | McCaskill (D) 44% |
| MN-SEN | Klobuchar (D) 50% | Kennedy (R) 40% |
In fact, it looks like TPM Cafe's Election Central is pretty serious about rounding up all manner of polls, so this may be a good resource to bookmark.
Posted at 01:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
TN-Sen: Ford's Silver Bullet
Posted by James L.I haven't blogged much about the Tennessee Senate race so far this cycle, mostly due to the fact that I've never viewed it as particularly competitive--or even potentially competitive. Harold Ford, Jr. has been on the air with an ever-changing array of (impressive) campaign commercials for a long time, and yet his polling numbers remained flatlined in the low 40s (at best) against his potential Republican opponents during the primary. That's starting to change now that Tennessee Republicans have selected former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker in a nasty three-way primary. Fragments of the conservative Republican base in Tennessee have been less than enthused over a nominee who was on record as a supporter of abortion rights in his first run for the Senate in 1994 (he's since changed his tune), but discontent among the conservative base in Tennessee is not what's making me feel optimistic about Ford's chances this November. Instead, it's Bob Corker's absolutely galling record of incompetence as mayor of Chattanooga. DailyKos diarist and Ford booster R o o k has more here and here. But if you want the 30 second Sparknotes version, just watch this:
In 2001, when Bob Corker took office, understaffing of Chattanooga's 911 emergency repsonse center was already a problem, with 8.8% of 911 calls going unanswered. Over his tenure, that rate steadily increased, hitting 14.9% in 2004 (Corker's last full year as mayor). In 2005, the year in question for the DSCC's ad, unanswered calls hit 16.9%, or 31,000. Now, Corker's campaign is raising an absolutely ridiculous defense, saying that blaming Corker for the gross shortcomings of 2005 is "misleading" because Corker's term expired four months into that year. Well, excuse me, Bob, it was your failures as mayor that caused the 911 emergency response rate to drop during your term and beyond. From the Chattanooga Times Free Press (03/30/06):
A retired Chattanooga police chief said former Mayor Bob Corker thwarted efforts to improve 911 operations by refusing to fund more communications positions."I asked for communications officers in every budget, especially under the Corker administration, and each time it was denied," former police Chief Jimmie Dotson said this week from Houston, Texas, where he now lives. "(We) spent many, many, many hours battling the Corker administration asking for communications officers."
Not only that, but Corker's budgetary irresponsibilites as mayor actually resulted in fewer 911 operators on shift at any given time:
In March 2004, Lt. Tara Pedigo wrote in a Chattanooga Police Department internal memo that there was not "sufficient" staffing to prevent unanswered or abandoned emergency phone calls.Eight months later, Lt. Pedigo, who since has retired, announced that minimum staffing levels would be lowered, as she had been instructed to cut back on overtime within the communications division, according to a document.
There are some things that a mayor just has to do. Ensuring a properly staffed and managed emergency response system is one of them. Under Bob Corker, a bad 911 system in Chattanooga got even worse, and the lives and saftey of thousands of Tennesseans was put at risk. To be blunt, the buck stops with Bob. If he can't ensure life-or-death services to his constituents as mayor, he has no business being in the United States Senate, let alone any public office, anywhere.
Ford has now been handed an absolutely potent line of attack to make against Corker, and the NRSC is scrambling to get this ad off the air with the threat of completely frivolous lawsuits against the TV stations airing the DSCC commercial. National Republicans have been saying for months that their incumbents are safe because they will employ their strength on "local issues" to survive low approval ratings for President Bush and his Republican Congress. If they want to play that game, fine. With Bob Corker's appalling record on local issues now on the ballot, Harold Ford has an excellent opportunity to prove that Democrats can play the local game and win.
If I were Ford, I would ride the issue of Bob Corker's reckless incompetence relentlessly until November 7.
Posted at 06:52 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Tennessee | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Avoid the Noid
Posted by DavidNYCJoe Lieberman's new blog is supposedly going live tomorrow - but given their success with matters technical, I'll take the over on this one. Anyhow, as soon as I heard about this bold new venture from Joementum, I figured it had to be a set-up, some kind of rope-a-dope. Atrios has already explained why, so I'll let him take it:
It's basically going to be a trap to entice people to say mean things about the Last Honest Man so they can go whine to the press about how mean everyone is unlike Stay the Course Joe. I give it about 36 hours until they send out a press release along those lines. I don't know why they're obsessed with pointing out how nobody likes Joe, but it seems to be their campaign strategy for some reason.
Exactly right. So please, please don't feed the trolls. Or, as Domino's Pizza used to say back in the 80s, Avoid the Noid. There are a thousand other blogs where we can spend our time - we don't need to take the bait and wallow in the inevitable muck of the LieberBlog. Just stay away. You'll be much happier that way. I promise.
Posted at 12:16 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 01, 2006
CT-Sen: Lieberman Respected Primaries... Six Years Ago
Posted by James L.Via CT Bob:
From an appearance on CNN'S Larry King on October 31, 2000, immediately before the 2000 election. Hat tip to UptownNYChick on FDL.Larry asked Joe about the fact that he was running for Senate reelection and VP simultaneously. Here's the transcript:
KING: Any second thoughts on staying on the ballot in Connecticut for the Senate?LIEBERMAN: No, it's over. I did what the folks in the Connecticut Democratic Party who nominated me asked me to do. I will abide by the decision of the people of Connecticut.
So what's changed in the past six years that has made you lose respect for the people of Connecticut, Joe?
Meanwhile, SSP alumnus Tim Tagaris at the Official Lamont blog shares a giddy Fox News clip about Joe Lieberman's ass-headed campaign that's attempting to boost GOP incumbents statewide:
My favorite part: Lieberman whispering in Republican Congressman Chris Shays' ear to hold off from slipping him the tongue in front of the cameras. Gross.
Meanwhile, populist progressive Democrat Ned Lamont continues to show why he's a party builder by sending out a fundraising appeal for CT-05 Democratic challenger Chris Murphy.
Posted at 03:33 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 31, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb's Son Deployed to Iraq Early
Posted by James L.From a campaign e-mail:
I wanted to send a note to you today, as a supporter of Jim's campaign and someone who cares about the direction of this country. As many of you know, Jim's son Jimmy, an infantry Lance Corporal in the Marine Corps, has been scheduled to be deployed to Iraq for a number of months. In the last few days, Jimmy learned he would be deploying next week. While Labor Day is the traditional kickoff to the Election and Jim already made many commitments to do events throughout the state, including events with Governor Tim Kaine and Governor Mark Warner, we hope you understand at this time that Jim wants to have time with his son. He will be taking Jimmy back to Camp Lejeune on Monday and will spend time with him and his unit before their deployment.Jim wishes to emphasize that he is not unlike the thousands of parents and families who are sending their children and loved ones to war but that it is important to him that he has some private moments with his son before he deploys. Regardless of the political aspects of this war and your feelings towards it, it's important we keep our thoughts and prayers with the soldiers we are sending into harm's way.
Thank you for your understanding and continued support.
Let's all put Jim Webb and his family in our thoughts this week.
On the web: Jim Webb for Senate
Posted at 07:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
RI-Sen: Laffey 51, Chafee 34
Posted by James L.So says a new Rhode Island College poll (likely Republican primary voters; June in parens):
Lincoln Chafee (R-Inc.): 34 (36)
Steve Laffey (R-Club For Growth): 51 (39)
MoE: ±5.1%
Whoa. Now, I've been hearing a lot of whispers that Chafee has been running a surprisingly poor campaign, including a completely uninspired debate performance, but still, this poll comes as something of a shock. This isn't my favorite kind of poll for two reasons: 1) that MoE is just too darn high, and 2) it doesn't attempt to identify independent voters who will cast ballots in the Republican primary. There's no way for us to tell how many of these indies will turn out, and whom for.
Check out this money quote, though:
"Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the 'true partisan' candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey's efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off," said Profughi.
Confounding. Laffey is somehow tying Chafee--the only Republican Senator who was consistently against the Iraq War from the very start--to Bush, and it's working. Not only that, it's working to sour the Republican base on Chafee. Damn, I guess Bush's 76% disapproval rating in Rhode Island cuts pretty deeply into the insignificant base of registered Republicans there, too.
As you may know, Swing State is collectively rooting for Club For Growth's Steve Laffey to crush Chafee in the primary. If you still don't know why, just refer back to these poll numbers to give yourself a better idea as to why a Laffey candidacy will be a windfall for Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse (as well as the DSCC, who can afford to channel money elsewhere should Laffey win).
Posted at 03:27 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Rhode Island | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
VA-Sen: Here Comes the Cavalry
Posted by James L.From the Richmond Times-Dispatch:
With three polls showing the U.S. Senate race close after George Allen's alleged racial remark, national Democrats yesterday pledged dollars to Jim Webb.The latest survey, by Zogby International, gives Webb, once a long shot, a statistically insignificant lead over the Republican incumbent, who has been sidetracked for two weeks for addressing a Webb volunteer staff member of Indian descent as "macaca."
Sen. Charles E. Schumer of New York, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his group -- the political arm of the Senate Democratic Conference -- will donate an unspecified amount to Webb.
Schumer earlier this summer was noncommittal about directing cash and services to Webb.
"We think this is a neck-and-neck race," Schumer told report- ers when asked about the impact of the Allen controversy. "We plan to provide Jim Webb with the kinds of resources he needs to win."
Schumer's promise comes amid a dramatic shift in the Virginia contest, one triggered by Allen's oral blunder, which apparently has cost his re-election effort momentum and threatens to derail his presidential ambitions in 2008.
Webb has badly trailed Allen in fund raising. After the June primary, he had $424,245 in cash to $6.6 million for Allen. Webb said yesterday in Norfolk that he has collected $2 million since winning the nomination.
"We think we have a very good chance of winning in Virginia," said Schumer.
In related news, Webb's netroots coordinator, Lowell Feld, has a Dailykos diary up highlighting some big names headlining upcoming fundraisers for Webb: 1) fellow authors Stephen King and John Grisham in Charlottsville on Sept. 24 and 2) Gov. Mark Warner on Sept. 21 in Old Town Alexandria. However, he doesn't give any specifics on the upcoming President Clinton fundraiser for Webb.
Let's hope this late push is enough. The last thing I want to see is the DSCC kicking itself over waiting this one out too long.
Posted at 01:04 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
CT-Sen: ARG Shows a Tight Race
Posted by James L.Great news for Netroots candidate Ned Lamont: a new American Research Group poll shows Lamont and Lieberman neck-and-neck in the general election, contrasting with the latest QPoll that showed Lieberman up 53-41. From the ARG (August 17-21, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ned Lamont (D): 42
Joe Lieberman (I): 44
Alan "Gold" Schlesinger (R): 3
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.5%)
ARG shows Ned's favorability rating at 47-34, and Lieberman's at 56-41. More interestingly, Lamont is picking up 18% of Republican voters (to Lieberman's 57%), while Lieberman's edge among independent voters is only 10 points (48-38)--not a daunting edge at this stage of the game.
Word on the street says that these numbers closely mirror the latest Rasmussen poll, which also shows a narrow two-point lead for Lieberman. Not that I put much stock in Rasmussen, but two nearly identical polls can't be discounted completely. If anything is clear right now, it's that the Connecticut Senate race is still well within reach for Lamont, and Lieberman's much-vaunted general election invincibility is nothing more than a myth.
Support Ned Lamont and the Netroots candidates today.
Posted at 11:16 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, August 18, 2006
CT-Sen: Lieberman Hires Democrat Slayer
Posted by James L.From the Hotline:
Joe Lieberman's indie CT SEN campaign sent out a release to announce the hiring of two new consultants: media/direct mail consultant Josh Isay and pollster Neil Newhouse. Isay mostly works with Dems, with his most prominent former employer being Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the current DSCC chair...The more curious hiring, of course, is Newhouse, a partner in one of the most prestigious Republican polling firms in the country, Public Opinion Strategies. On the merits, Newhouse is a great hire as he and his firm have one of the best reputations in the business, both with their clients and with the media, including us. But what makes the hiring curious is that Newhouse is a Republican and has a slew of clients who will likely raise the ire of Democrats, particularly activist Democrats.
This cycle, Newhouse's most notable client is PA Sen. Rick Santorum. (Subscribers, click here of The Hotline's consultant scorecard.) The Lieberman release, of course, makes no mention of Santorum, but does note Newhouse's client relationship with the very popular GOP CT Gov. Jodi Rell. Newhouse is also the chief pollster for one of the Democrats' top House targets, CT 02 GOP Rep. Rob Simmons.
In '04, the firm worked for the biggest Dem killer of the cycle, John Thune, who knocked off Tom Daschle. And in '02, the firm's biggest name client? None other than a Bush, Jeb Bush, that is, in FL.
Unbelievable. For a full list of Public Opinion Strategies' clients, see here. You'll instantly notice that there are no Democratic clients to be found. What you will find is a laundry list that includes some of the most odious Republicans of our times: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (the guy who smeared triple-amputee Max Cleland as Bin Laden enabler), creaky old bigot Sen. Jim Bunning, and of course, Sen. Rick Santorum and Sen. John Thune (the Daschle slayer).
The most troubling bit about the news may rest in the fact that Newhouse's other Connecticut client is Rep. Rob Simmons, who is a top target of the DCCC and Joe Courtney. Lieberman is now essentially using Republican tools, Republican capital, and Republican consultants to mobilize the same Republican voters that Courtney and the other Democratic challengers need to de-energize in order to win. The pure gall of this move is disgusting, and it paints a sharp picture that Lieberman is for himself and himself only. He doesn't care about electing three new Democrats to the House--he's more than willing to toss them overboard if it means he can work the Republican field and win.
I wonder how Lieberman's Senate Democratic colleagues feel now that they know that Lieberman is paying the same guy who ended the political careers of Tom Daschle and Max Cleland. I wonder if they feel as good about letting Lieberman keep his seniority and committee assignments.
Posted at 04:19 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
WA-08: And So Do We
Posted by James L.Here's the first sign that Ned Lamont's media campaign is gaining notice and respect from other political ad firms: check out Netroots candidate Darcy Burner's first tv ad (60 seconds, WMV). Wait for the end and try not to do a spit take.
Posted at 03:12 AM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut, Washington | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 17, 2006
CT-Sen: Q-Poll Shows Lieberman Up Twelve
Posted by DavidNYCQuinnipiac's latest (likely voters w/leaners, no trendlines):
Lamont (D): 41
Lieberman (I): 53
Schlesinger (R): 4
(MoE: ±3%)
Quite clearly, Lieberman is the GOP candidate at this point - at least, from the perspective of Republican voters. Even the pollster agrees:
"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
But note this: Among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), Lieberman's lead is similar (49-38). Yet just a month ago, it was 51-27. That's some serious shrinkage. The good news for Lamont: 32% of respondents still hadn't heard of him at the time the survey was conduct, so he has more room to grow.
The bad news: His favorable-unfavorable rating stands at 23-27. You never like seeing a challenger in negative territory. Meanwhile, Joe's is 43-28. But that's actually not especially good news for Lieberman: At the start of the year, he was at 53-14 - he's been sliding downward ever since. The question is, does he have much further to go? Or will CT Republicans and right-leaning indies prop him up from this point forward? If the latter (and I worry that might be the case), then Lamont has to be able to up his favorables in order to win - again - this fall.
Posted at 02:13 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Earth to Biden
Posted by James L.From a Hardball interview with Joe Biden:
Asked where he stands on the CT SEN race: "Well, I stand for the Democratic candidate. Joe is my good friend. I told Joe when I went up there campaigning for them, I want to lead the Democratic Party. I've got to abide by the Democratic Party's ruling."Asked if he will take "any active role" in getting a Dem elected in CT: "Yes, but I'm not going to take an active role by being against Joe. I'm not going to take an active role by discouraging any of Joe's friends. I'm going to take an active role in trying to elect the Democrat" (MSBNC, 8/16).
You are not taking an "active role in trying to elect the Democrat" if you do not do all in your power to discourage Joe Lieberman and his Republican lobbyist "friends" from running a kamikaze race against the Democratic nominee. Plain. And. Simple.
If Biden can't be serious about standing up strongly for good Democrats nationwide, he can't be trusted as Presidential material.
Posted at 11:06 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb Snags the Big Dog
Posted by James L.From the Richmond-Times Dispatch:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Webb has snared the big guy -- former President Bill Clinton -- to help him raise money for his Senate race.A spokeswoman said the time and place for Clinton's visit have yet to be worked out.
Webb is running against U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, who ended the June 30 fundraising period with a $6 million edge over Webb.
But Webb just completed what his aides say was a successful fundraising trip to Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Money, so far, has been Webb's biggest hurdle that he has yet to clear. A visit from the Big Dog will not only rake in a significant dollar sum for Webb's campaign, but it will also send the signal to national donors that Webb may well be worth the investment. Furthermore--and we saw this attempted by Joe Lieberman a few weeks ago--a Clinton visit will hopefully help boost Jim Webb's appeal among African-Americans (a group that Webb's primary opponent, Harris Miller, sought to carve away from his camp). Now that Sen. Allen is knee-deep in macaca, you've got to believe that minority communities all across Virginia are shopping around for someone a bit more respectable.
Posted at 09:03 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
PA-Sen: Tightening
Posted by James L.Lordy, I sure do hope that this is an outlier (Quinnipiac, June in parens):
Bob Casey (D): 47 (52)
Rick Santorum (R-Inc.): 40 (34)
Undecided: 11 (12)
MoE: ±3.1%