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Tuesday, March 14, 2006

SC-05: Spratt Crushing Norman in New Internal Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

The GOP got all excited when they got a one-term state Rep. - a fellow name of Ralph Norman - to take on Rep. John Spratt, who's represented SC-05 for two dozen years. They've been talking up his candidacy like mad, especially of late. Bigwigs (such as Cheney and Rove) are even raising money for him. Their causes for optimism are two-fold: One, Bush won this district 57-42 and two, last cycle, the Republican garnered 37% of the vote while spending nothing. Ordinarily, I'd say hey, yeah, you've definitely got a good target.

But not this time, papitos. The Spratt campaign just released a new internal poll. I got it off Hotline, so sorry about the lack of a link (likely voters, no trendlines):

Spratt: 61
Norman: 21
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)

I'm sure Norman will do better than the nobody who ran in 2004, but he's not gonna win. This might be the kind of seat you pick up in a good Republican year, but this ain't one of those. Spratt's got the wind at his back, especially with Bush's approval rating cratering in SC (he's now in negative territory). Norman was even dumb enough to go on record supporting the Dubai ports deal. When local experts are saying that even South Carolina Republicans have to run away from Bush, you know that's not a good move. I think Pratt's gonna be just fine, and Norman's political career will come to an abrupt end before long.

Posted at 05:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, South Carolina | Technorati

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2004 results, SC-05

Spratt (D) - 63%
Albert Spencer (R) - 37%

Spencer spent $1215.

Now, with a 61/21 margin at the moment. The potential is definately there for Spratt to top his 2004 showing.

Spratt also got 63% while Bush was getting 57% in that district. With Bush's fortunes fading. Spratt isn't going to go down.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey, I'd be happy to be wrong about that one!

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 05:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I read an article a few months ago where a South Carolina Republican, "requesting anonymity", speculated that the GOP tide was way too weak for Spratt to be beaten in '06, even with their golden boy Norman on the ballot. My concerns are nonetheless twofold. First, I didn't think Spratt's corner of South Carolina was nearly this Republican. There are a lot of seriously blue counties in his district, but apparently the Rock Hill area's population juggernaut renders the blue regions of SC-05 irrelevant. Secondly, Spratt's no spring chicken, and the growth sector of his district is the Republican Rock Hill area. When Spratt does retire, hanging on to this seat will be VERY difficult if the split is 57-43....and a guy like Norman would be well-positioned to wipe the floor with Spratt's heir apparent.

I know...worry about 2006 first, but still....

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 06:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh yeah, it's Spratt, not Pratt.

Problems may exist when Spratt leaves. But hopefully somebody good can be found then.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 06:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Charlotte Observer | 03/14/2006 | 6:10 pm | `American Candidate' may leave race

"At the York County Republican Convention two weeks ago, Gillespie complained about the support that the state and national GOP organizations have thrown to Norman, even going so far as to invoke a clause in the Republican National Committee's rules allowing the party to endorse candidates before the primary. In 2004, Gillespie was selected the "American Candidate" on Showtime's reality TV show.

The White House helped recruit Norman to run against incumbent John Spratt. On Friday, Vice President Dick Cheney will speak at a $250 a plate fundraising luncheon for Norman in Rock Hill."
I don't know that this ex teacher was a real candidate or if he can just win in a "reality show." I am just glad he's not teaching at my kid's school, anymore.

Posted by: MissM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 08:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark: That's a major reason to endorse Dean's 50-state strategy. Without it, we haven't a prayer at holding on to seats like Spratt's. With it, at least we've got a slightly better shot.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 08:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Fifty state strategy has to mean more than just "candidates in every race." We need to engage in some boring, unsexy party building.

For too long, we've been "eating our seed corn." Some serious money, time and effort has to go into building from the ground up.

In my state we have some very interesting candidates for Congress.

But what we NEED is great candidates for the state legislature in order to destroy the GOP gerrymandering which virtually assures that those good House candidates are gonna get whipped.

Posted by: Ohanon [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 09:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Need to get some Dem. State Senators lined up to run if Spratt does decide to retire any time soon always good to have a Plan B. I'm not saying run in a primary just saying have them ready to jump in if Spratt gets out.

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 09:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ohanon: Check out Tim's diary on DailyKos today. It talks about exactly that. Dean's plan involves far more than just getting someone to run in every district.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2006 10:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment