Saturday, October 28, 2006
Vote Vets Throws Down in Four Races
Posted by James L.By now you may have seen one of these new ads by VoteVets PAC, running against Republican congressmen Jon Porter (NV-03), John Doolittle (CA-04), Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) and John Sweeney (NY-20):
In terms of advertising effectiveness, VoteVets is giving more bang for the buck than any other PAC or party committee this year. Their much-hyped body armor ads against Senators Talent, Burns, Allen and Santorum were impaired only by their limited budgets: a $30k-$50k media buy doesn't exactly dominate the airwaves, especially in a state as large as Pennsylvania or Virginia. For this new series of ads, however, VoteVets has scored the funding to make big, serious buys that will have an impact in each of these districts:
• $98k against Gutknecht (MN-01)
• $136k against Sweeney (NY-20)
• $237k against Porter (NV-03)
As I understand it, the John Doolittle ad will be a narrower cable buy, but even still, it should penetrate deeper in a House race than the body armor ads did with limited statewide purchases in the Senate races.
Posted at 03:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 16, 2006
AZ-05, CA-50, MN-02, NM-01: SUSA Shows Huge Movement for Democratic Challengers
Posted by James L.Survey USA has four hot new polls out today, each showing a signficant bump for Democratic challengers:
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 45, Hayworth (R) 48
CA-50: Busby (D) 46, Bilbray (R) 49
MN-02: Rowley (DFL) 42, Kline (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45
I'd put up trendlines, etc, but I'm pressed for time. Here's the money quote, though:
In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.
How crazy would it be if an underfunded, unnoticed Busby managed to knock out Bilbray the second time around? While I still think it's quite unlikely, with numbers like these, it all depends on base motivation. You go, girl!
Posted at 09:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Mexico | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
CA-11: The NRCC is Nervous
Posted by James L.I'll let Say No To Pombo do the talking here:
The NRCC came into CA-11 back on August 3rd and dropped $16,275 on the table to finance polling for Richard Pombo. Then, a mere month later, they plunked down another $9,765 for a second round of Pombo polling. Now, I suspect that we’ll never know what that polling told them because they haven’t been in any hurry to release their findings publicly. But that omission probably tells us most of what we need to know about their results. And if there were any lingering suspicions, the NRCC’s subsequent actions have more than answered the question.Following the first poll, the NRCC paid out $1,477 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production and $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers. After the second poll on 9/6, they made the following independent expenditures, all within a ten-day period:
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/13 — $38,385 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers.It’s worth noting that all of these expenditures have been identified for FEC purposes as being made in opposition to Jerry McNerney. That means the voters of CA-11 are going to be barraged with several more rounds of anti-McNerney advertising. It’s telling that even the NRCC can’t seem to find much good to say about Richard Pombo and his record in Congress. Instead, they have to content themselves with lying about Jerry McNerney.
Taken in total, that’s $250,762 in negative mailers paid for by the NRCC on behalf of Richard Pombo in just the last two weeks. Together with the polling, that means they’ve spent $276,802 in CA-11 in the last six weeks. You simply can’t convince me that Richard Pombo and the Republican Party aren’t deeply worried about the outcome of this race.
You can't convince me otherwise, either. The NRCC wouldn't drop over a quarter of a million dollars on this seat if McNerney wasn't threatening Pombo in their internal polls (which we'll never see, like a lot of Republican internal polls, because the results are embarrassing). Pombo, as you may recall, was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, and his heinous record on environmental issues have caused environmental groups and PACs to single him out for special punishment this year. Pombo is being challenged by netroots candidate Jerry McNerney, a man of integrity and a renewable energy expert--the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued district. The DCCC has sat on the sidelines since their preferred candidate, pilot Steve Filson, lost the primary. On Monday, they finally made the move to add McNerney to a slate of fifteen "Emerging Races", a program that will help deliver some fundraising for unusually strong challengers in reddish seats.
Bowers is right, though: McNerney deserves the full Red-to-Blue Program treatment here. That the NRCC would dump $250,000 in support of an incumbent whose fundraising has been very strong this cycle is eye-opening. The DCCC's "Emerging Races" treatment of McNerney is a positive step, but I'd say that he deserves the whole enchilada.
If you'd like to help Jerry McNerney apply more heat to Richard Pombo, give him some well-deserved help here.
Posted at 05:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 08, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo, Pt. II
Posted by James L.The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is back on the air with two new ads targeting corrupt incumbent Republican congressman Richard Pombo. The first one is entitled "George":
The second one is called "Abe":
Quirky, to be sure. You can view the first round of anti-Pombo ads aired by the DWAF here. I'm not sure if this second round of ads will be anymore effective than the first, but since the DCCC is looking elsewhere this fall, netroots candidate Jerry McNerney will need all the help he can get on the air this fall.
Posted at 02:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Netroots August Fundraising Push: Support Jerry McNerney
Posted by James L.
As the August combined Netroots fundraising push kicks into gear, it's time that we look back upon each of the Netroots-endorsed challengers and remind ourselves why their fight is worthy of our resources and attention this fall. Let's start with CA-11 challenger, Jerry McNerney.
McNerney is in the unique position of being endorsed by BOTH of his opponent's Republican primary challengers (including former Rep. Pete McCloskey, author of the Endangered Species Act), and being on the receiving end of major assistance from local and national environmental groups who are scrambling to defeat the incumbent, Richard Pombo. Pombo was made infamous for using taxpayer's money to go on a family vacation to various national parks--and then turning around and proposing the sale of these national parks to the same developers who supported his campaigns.
McNerney, on the other hand, is a true progressive champion, and as a former CEO of a wind power company, he would be an invaluable voice in the next Congress for renewable and alternative energy policies. If McNerney could catch the eye of the DCCC with the help of a strong netroots and grassroots push, Pombo would be facing a perfect storm against him this November.
Please support Jerry McNerney and the Netroots candidates today.
Posted at 02:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Fundraising, Netroots | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, August 19, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo
Posted by James L.Not content to let uber-corrupt anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo off the hook without a major air war, the Wildlife Action Fund has stepped up to the plate in CA-11 with two new TV ads.
"The Office":
"The Principal":
It would be great if Netroots candidate Jerry McNerney could augment these ads with some biographical/contrast spots of his own to really seal the deal. Barbara Boxer is hosting a fundraiser for him on the 25th, so hopefully Jerry will have the necessary resources to get on the air.
Posted at 03:20 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
CA-11: McCloskey (R) Endorses McNerney (D)
Posted by James L.Maverick former GOP Rep. Pete McCloskey took on his party's establishment -- and lost. But he's not done yet.McCloskey, 78, failed in his primary challenge to Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Calif., chairman of the powerful House Resources Committee. Now he's planning to urge Northern California voters who backed him to support Pombo's Democratic opponent, wind engineer Jerry McNerney, in November.
In June, McCloskey won 32 percent of the Republican primary vote to 62 percent for Pombo.
McNerney is "an honorable man that has not and will not seek to enrich himself and his family through his office," McCloskey said in an interview.
So how much of that 32% will swing to McNerney?
Posted at 01:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, June 19, 2006
Why Can't California Be More Like Montana?
Posted by DavidNYCMontana:
Montana Democrats Barnstorm for UnityAfter what could have turned into a divisive primary election, Montana Democrats rallied in four cities Friday to show that the state the party is united behind Jon Tester in what promises to be a no-holds-barred U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Conrad Burns this fall.
California:
Tension Builds Between L.A. Mayor, AngelidesTension between Antonio Villaraigosa and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides surfaced Friday as the Los Angeles mayor declined to say whether he backed his own party's candidate to unseat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
It looks to me like Dems in Cali are living up an old credo: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. All I can say is, someone better bash a few heads in over on the left coast before Angelides and Villaraigosa give the media any more fodder for one of their favorite evergreens, "Dems in Disarray." Maybe we should send Brian Schweitzer over there to whoop some ass.
Posted at 03:29 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, California, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 08, 2006
CA-50: Another Look
Posted by James L.[UPDATE (David): As a courtesy to readers of the Swing State Project, Charlie Cook has graciously made Amy Walter's column freely available.]
Was Francine Busby's loss in CA-50 a sign of a Democratic base problem? We mulled over it a bit in my post-mortem, but the best summary of this lament came from Markos:
Well, it seems everything I've been saying for the last few months came to happen.1) Democrats are not motivated to turn out. Sure, Busby exceeded Kerry's 43 percent he got in the district in 2004, but not by much. She got 45.46%. If the "culture of corruption" message was enough to bring people out to vote Democratic, this would be the place to do it. This is Duke Cunningham territory, he of the million dollar mansions, yachts, and hookers. Regardless, district voters sent a lobbyist back to Washington to represent them.
2) 2006 will be a base election -- the party that wins is the party that gets more pf its partisans to the polls. Busby worked hard to win the independent vote. And like Kerry in 2004, she probably won it. But it does no good when the other side gets more of its voters out to the polls. And a milquetoast campaign that hides partisan divisions and stresses "competence" will not inspire our partisans to come out and vote. The Republicans, on the other hand, made sure to rile up their base. Busby helped with her unfortunate comments that were so easily twisted out of context by the right wing noise machine, but they'll do that to every single one of our candidates. [Emphasis added]
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report has another take:
But, as we had written from the very beginning, Busby could not win simply by getting her voters to the polls. The Democratic base in this heavily Republican district makes up just 44-45 percent of the vote. To win, she needed Republican voters to either stay home or to vote for one of the third party candidates. Busby even ran advertising encouraging conservative Republicans to support William Griffith.[...]
Pre-eminent congressional scholar Gary Jacobson of the University of California San Diego notes that Busby actually did better than simply win the Democratic vote. She also got a bigger share of independents. Busby got 55,587 votes in the special election, almost 10,000 more votes than were cast in the Democratic primary (45,868). The special election and the regular primary were held on the same day. Bilbray, meanwhile, took 60,319 votes in the run-off election, while 59,195 votes were cast in the Republican primary. "Without too great an inferential leap," writes Jacobson, "we could conclude that Bilbray got the Republicans, Busby got the Democrats and a disproportionate share of the rest--just not enough to win."
Furthermore, notes Jacobson, when looking at party registration figures, it is clear that Democrats were more energized than Republicans. Bilbray's vote, he notes, was 38.6 percent of the number of Republican registrants, Busby's was 52.7 percent of the number of Democratic registrants. Based on the primary election vote, he notes, Democratic turnout was 43.8 percent, while Republican turnout was 37.8 percent. [Emphasis added]
So, after all that hubbub about Bilbray supposedly capturing the hearts and minds of progressives, it turns out that base motivation wasn't the problem at all here. The problem was, simply, that there just weren't enough damn Democrats in the district to mobilize in the first place. Given the huge amount the NRCC spent on Bilbray, and the RNC's much-vaunted 72-hour GOTV field operation in the district (a sign of smart strategy, not desperation), the Busby campaign did a pretty good job to get our side to the polls. As Walters contends, Republican incumbents in tight races shouldn't greet the CA-50 results with a sigh of relief:
So what's the bottom line lesson here? While a loss would have been disastrous for the Republicans, a win does not suggest that they are going to have an easy time this fall. In more marginal districts with stronger Democratic candidates and/or weakened Republican candidates, the political environment is certainly enough of a factor to take a toll. It's clear that Bilbray was unable to get the "soft" Republican voters that have traditionally broken for Republicans in the past, but in this heavily Republican district, he could afford to lose these voters. Republican incumbents who sit in more marginal districts do not have that luxury. For them, even a two or three point dip in turn-out could be politically fatal.
Posted at 11:38 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (36) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
CA-50 Post-Mortem Open Thread
Posted by James L.So, what can we read from these results? In CA-50, depending on who you talk to, this was either a sign of great things to come, or another dismal failure by a Democratic campaign to mobilize the base. There are even those who postulate that the Republicans could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this November by putting a greater distance between themselves and Bush on immigration, like Bilbray did, as opposed to trademark Democratic caution and moderation on the issue. Wherever you look on the blogosphere, it seems that there's another spin on the issue.
There were lots of outside factors that prejudiced Busby's campaign at the polls yesterday--an off-putting, nasty Gubernatorial primary that likely did not help turn out many base voters in the district, the goofy 'papers' comment (quite a shock considering how disciplined and professional Busby has been as a messenger during this campaign)--but if we're going to be reading CA-50's tea leaves as a sign of things to come, I think we should all be a little more cautious of our expectations for this November. The GOP has thrown a huge monkey wrench in the form of Immigration into the Democrats' 2006 strategy, and it's unclear yet how the Democrats plan to manage the issue. Personal opinions aside--and I'm extremely liberal on the issue, so it's probably a good thing that I'm not in charge of Democratic policymaking--the Democrats better find a way not to end up on the wrong side of a voter backlash on immigration woes.
There's another take on this, though, and that's the Busby campaign's failure to fire up their base. I'm inclined to agree with this assessment--when I saw a plea by Busby on the DCCC blog on the 11th hour of race, saying that they needed 100 more volunteers to execute their ground game effectively, I knew that this was gonna be rough. If the Busby campaign was more effective at firing up the base, they would have had more than 300 volunteers for their election-day ground game and wouldn't have needed that last-minute plea.
Also frustrating was the continued Republican dominance in early voting. To be fair, the Busby campaign did a great job in narrowing the traditional gap between Democratic and Republican absentee votes, but why the heck do Republicans always come out on top? The Democratic machine from state-to-state and district-to-district is going to have to seriously overhaul their absentee voting strategy--or maybe even get one, in the first place.
So I turn the floor to our readers. What went wrong in CA-50? What lessons should we take from this? Or maybe you're of the opinion that this was a pretty decent result; afterall, the NRCC was forced to dump a cool $5 million into a ruby red district, while the DCCC only kissed $2.5 million goodbye.
Posted at 01:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Chris Bowers Is an Insomniac
Posted by James L.Alright, I'm heading to bed. Workdays that start at 8am tend to have this effect on me at midnight (fabulous Mountain Time). Until then, to fix your agonizing need for CA-50 updates and analysis, head on over to MyDD, where eternal nocturnal Chris Bowers is on a mission to see this through until the bitter end. Dude must be hooked up to an IV of caffeine.
UPDATE (DavidNYC): Okay. With 46.4% of the vote in, this is how I see things:
• If there is 40% turnout, Busby needs 55.22% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 49.26% to reach 47%• If there is 35% turnout, Busby needs 56.94% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 50.01% to reach 47%
• If there is 30% turnout, Busby needs 60.36% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 51.49% to reach 47%
I include the 47% figure because I think that's about the minimum total Busby could win with. No matter what, she needs to run well ahead of where she's run so far in order to pull this one off. I don't know what primary turnout is usually like in CA - anyone have any numbers?
Anyhow, don't forget that no matter what the outcome, there will still be a Busby-Bilbray rematch in November, and Francine will still need our help.
Posted at 01:56 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
California Results Open Thread
Posted by RBHCA-GOV: 4.3% 13% 35.2% of precincts reporting
Phil Angelides (D):217,622 (48.7%) 353,474 (47.2%)523,260 (47.5%)
Steve Westly (D):191,764 (43%) 327,723 (43.8%)479,833 (43.6%)
CA-50 (To fill the unexpired term): 11% 35.2% reporting
Francine Busby (D):17,329 (43%)27,383 (44.4%)
Brian Bilbray (R):20,448 (50%)30,683 (49.8%)
All of the U.S. Congress Primaries in California
CA-50 (GOP Primary for the November election): 11.4% 35.6% of precincts reporting
Brian Bilbray (R):11,071 (52.9%)16,712 (54.6%)
Eric Roach (R):3,347 (16%)4,486 (14.6%)
CA-04, 11.5% 38.4% 75.3% of Precincts reporting:
John Doolittle (R):14,054 (63.2%) 25,323 (63.7%)44,244 (65.9%)
John Holmes (R):8,186 (37.1%) 14,442 (36.3%)22,981 (34.1%)
Charles Brown (D):5,346 (46.3%) 10,534 (47.1%)18,466 (46.3%)
Lisa Rea (D):3,641 (31.6%) 7,103 (31.7%)13,127 (32.9%)
Michael Hamersley (D):3,563 (22.1%) 4,773 (21.2%)8,334 (20.8%)
CA-06: 22% 42% of precincts reporting:
Lynn Woolsey (D):31,997 (65.5%) 38,656 (65.7%)45,339 (65.5%)
Joe Nation (D):16,913 (34.5%) 20,244 (34.3%)23,895 (34.5%)
CA-11: 0.8% 11.7% of precincts reporting:
Jerry McNerney (D):4143 (56.5%)9415 (52.6%)
Steve Filson (D):2044 (27.9%)5210 (29%)
Richard Pombo (R):5269 (55.4%)14,779 (61.9%)
Pete McCloskey (R):3584 (37.6%)7616 (31.9%)
CA-24: 10.5% 44.6% of precincts reporting:
Elton Gallegly (R):5,609 (81.3%)17,463 (80.8%)
Michael Tenenbaum (R):1,292 (18.7%)4,160 (19.2%)
Mark this one down for Gallegly in a landslide. Democratic nominee Jill Martinez has 10,703 votes so far running unopposed.
CA-36: 0% 36.3% of precincts reporting:
Jane Harman (D):5,981 (69.5%)13,621 (65%)
Marcy Winograd (D):2,629 (30.5%)7,353 (35%)
CA-51: 8.1% of precincts reporting:
Bob Filner (D): 4,336 (53.9%)
Juan Vargas (D): 3,329 (41.4%)
Posted at 12:04 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
California and Montana Predictions Open Thread
Posted by James L.Polls close in under a half hour in these two states Montana, so take a breath and hit me with your best shot. Of course, like Stoller, I'm not going to make any predictions (though I do have a few things rumbling around in my gut besides the stuffed peppers I'm digesting). I don't want to slant your guesses, but the NRCC is sounding pretty confident, according to the Hotline:
NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (NY) said earlier today that, based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50, ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) held about a 10K vote lead. Reynolds added, however, that he wouldn’t make any predictions at this early stage.
Posted at 09:32 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, June 02, 2006
CA-50: SUSA Poll Shows Narrow Lead for Bilbray
Posted by DavidNYCSUSA just released what I imagine will be their final poll in CA-50 (likely voters, early May in parens):
Busby: 45 (45)
Bilbray: 47 (45)
Other: 9 (9)
Undecided: 0 (1)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Bilbray's bump accounts for a better showing among independents: Busby previously led among that group by 54-19. Now it's down to 56-31. Given the negativity of the campaign, I'm surprised that Bilbray jumped 12 points among indies, who (at least CW tells us) are the kinds of voters most likely to be turned off by negative campaigning. Then again, most indies actually do identify with a particular party - there are very few "true" independents. So these might just be slightly hesitant Republicans coming home to roost.
SUSA also makes the following observation:
Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.
I never like it when we have to rely on young voters turning out. It just never happens. What I don't understand, though, is why young people have flocked to Busby in the last month, while older folks have turned toward Bilbray. In the previous SUSA poll, all four age brackets were pretty evenly divided between both candidates. Any thoughts?
Stepping back a bit, I'm not sure that any poll this late in the game will tell us anything we didn't already know in such a close race. It's going to be a nailbiter no matter what. I will say this, though: If Busby loses in a squeaker, the tradmed will talk about how Dems "failed to capitalize" on all manner of GOP sins and flaws. But this storyline will miss an important point: If Democrats across the map improve over their baselines as much as Busby has in CA-50, we will do quite well in November.
But as far as June 6th goes, I'm not making any predictions, except to say that this one is gonna be close - darn close.
(Thanks to AnthonyLA.)
Posted at 09:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Get-Out-The-Vote for Busby
Posted by DavidNYCUPDATE (2): MoveOn is indeed doing virtual phone-banking once again, just like it did with the April special primary. Go here to sign up. If you weren't able to get involved with the DCCC's phone-banking program, this is a great alternative. The minimum commitment should take you less than an hour, but of course, you can always do more.
UPDATE: Thanks to the fantastic response from readers of this site, the DCCC now is booked solid with volunteers. If I get any information from the Busby campaign about virtual phone banking, I will be sure to post it. In the meantime, please sign up on Busby's volunteer page - remember, if she wins on Tuesday, she still needs to win again in November and will need our help once more.
This, as they say, is it, folks. If you live anywhere remotely near CA-50, please, please, I implore you: Spend a few hours between now and election day helping out Francine Busby.
GOTV June 3rd-6thSaturday June 3rd, Sunday June 4th & Monday June 5th
Door Hangers 10am-8pm
(Shifts beginning at 10am, 1pm & 4pm)Election Day June 6th
Precinct Poll Checks
6:00am-9am Door Hangers
9:30am-8pm Precinct Poll Walks
(Shifts beginning at 9:30am, 12pm & 4pm)Canvass Locations:
Coastal Canvass
Headline Graphics Parking Lot
131 Aberdeen Drive
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 436-0133Southern Canvass
Carpenter's Hall
8595 Miralani Drive, Suite A
San Diego, Ca 92123Northern Canvass
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Phone Bank Locations:
Coastal Phone Bank:
Busby Cardiff Office
2121 Newcastle Avenue
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 479-0114Northern Phone Banks:
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Nava Residence
858 Calle Montera
Escondido, Ca 9202RSVP to volunteer@busbyforcongress.org
Or call (760) 479-0114
SPECIAL NOTE TO DC-AREA RESIDENTS:
The DCCC is looking for DC-area based volunteers to make calls to San Diego Democrats on Monday evening and all day Tuesday.To sign up for Monday and/or Tuesday, contact our Assistant to the Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Lewis, at lewis@dccc.org, or call (202) 741-1881.
Let's do this thing!
Posted at 01:10 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 01, 2006
CA-50: Wah Wah Wah... Wipeout!
Posted by James L.San Diego professor of Political Science Carl Luna, writing for the S.D. Union-Tribune, has a great breakdown on why surfer-turned-lobbyist-turned-Congressional candidate Brian Bilbray is facing a gnarly nightmare at the polls next Tuesday. Read it; it's a fun article, but for those without the time, here's the SparkNotes version of Bilbray's bind:
1) He was bruised by a divisive, expensive, and crowded primary.
2) His career as a lobbyist has only left him all the more vulnerable to anti-corruption broadsides.
3) Busby's lack of meaningful primary opposition has allowed her to pursue a message of competence, moderation and good governance over anything particularly ideological, while Bilbray has been caught-up in the Republican primary crowd's rush to out-right each other.
4) He has the charisma of "Nixon in a speedo".
5) His defeated conservative primary opponents have not rallied around him, and instead are STILL challenging Bilbray on the June 6 primary ballot--hurting Bilbray's appeal among conservatives.
6) His hard-right tack on immigration may end up pleasing no one--it will turn off moderates while leaving conservatives unconvinced.
7) He's tainted by horrid approval numbers for the President and the Republican Congress.
8) The NRCC's campaign ads which allege that Busby is "soft on pedophiles" have the potential for significant backlash votes.
9) In the last week of the campaign, Dick Cheney--not exactly the popular, cuddly face of the Republican Party--enthusiastically (I use the term loosely) stumped for Bilbray while John McCain, still the hero to moderate and independent Republicans, sapped Bilbray's momentum by boycotting a scheduled fundraiser after he started to slap around Busby for supporting McCain's immigration plan. This isn't the way you make friends and influence people, bro.
But for all his woes, Luna's convinced that the McCain snub will really be Bilbray's undoing:
Bottom line. Bilbray’s being jilted at the fund raising alter by that darling of the middle (or, is it the darling of the muddled?) John “Man For All Seasons, Audiences, People and Voters” McCain may well prove to have been the final pounder of Bilbray’s political surfing hopes. McCain’s boycott is a blazing sign to moderates and independents that Bilbray just ain’t their dude.Up through last week my bet was Bilbray by 2%. Given the way things are breaking, I now have to go Busby by a nose. Or, in surferese, by a toe on the nose.
It'll be a tight one, but it looks increasingly possible that Francine Busby can pull this one off.
(Thanks to Predictor for the tip.)
PS: Busby really seems to be hitching her wagon to Sen. McCain in order to innoculate herself against Bilbray's attacks, as seen in her ad entitled "It's Not Amnesty". A brilliant strategy in a ruby red district or unnerving McCain-boosting? Both, maybe.
UPDATE: Dailykos diarist dengre has an excellent diary up detailing the links between Brian Bilbray and Jack Abramoff.
Posted at 12:05 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
CA-50: "Maverick" John McCain Cancels Bilbray Fundraiser
Posted by James L.From the Associated Press, comes word of "maverick" Sen. John McCain sticking fast to his ideals and not being pushed around by his extremist peers in the Republican Party:
Arizona Sen. John McCain on Tuesday canceled an appearance for a Republican congressional candidate who has attacked his opponent for supporting McCain's immigration bill.McCain, R-Ariz., was scheduled to speak Wednesday at a breakfast fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, who is locked in a close runoff race with Democrat Francine Busby for the San Diego-area seat left vacant by disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham. The event was expected to raise at least $65,000.
So Bilbray smacks Busby for supporting one of McCain's policies. That's surely enough for our favorite straight-talking "maverick" to stay true to his principles and rescind his endorsement of Bilbray, right? Right? Erm, maybe not:
In an e-mail sent to the Bilbray campaign, McCain spokesman Craig Goldman acknowledged that McCain and Bilbray "disagree on some of the issues related to immigration reform." He said McCain did not want his appearance to distract from Bilbray's campaign.The e-mail reiterated McCain's endorsement of Bilbray, and said the senator's Straight Talk America political action committee would make the maximum allowable contribution of $5,000 to Bilbray's campaign. Goldman did not return phone and e-mail messages left seeking comment.
Pathetic. But oh well; at least it's one more momentum-sapping headline for Brian Bilbray.
Posted at 09:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Monday, May 29, 2006
The Week Ahead in California and Montana
Posted by James L.We have a number of hot races to look forward to next Tuesday, June 6 in California, and my neighbor state Montana. Here's a run-down on what to watch:
CA-50: Busby's all-out battle to steal this open seat from the Republicans will be, without a doubt, the premier event of the night--and the Republicans are on edge:
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
CA-42: If you live in the 42nd district of California (see a map here) or know anyone who does, and you'd like to have the chance to get a Democrat on the ballot this November, you'll have to write in the name of Mark Hull-Richter on the ballot. House Race guru BENAWU has the lowdown. Hull-Richter is gonna need to come up with 2641 write-in votes. That's a huge hill to climb, but it's worth a shot. Afterall, under-the-radar write-in campaigns allowed Democrats to field candidates in previously uncontested races in PA-09 & PA-15.
CA-36: Anti-war activist Marcy Winograd is challenging Rep. Jane Harman, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. From the L.A. Times:
In sum, Winograd casts her opponent as a Bush Democrat who was too slow to challenge the president on the war, one who moved left only when challenged in the campaign. Winograd could only have been delighted when restless House liberals complained of the same thing in the early jockeying for position in next year's Congress, lobbying to have Harman replaced as the party's voice on the Intelligence Committee.I'm not sure if Winograd has the necessary organization to pull of an upset, but her primary challenge has at least forced Harman to prove her progressive bona fides.
CA-11: Netroots favorite and '04 nominee Jerry McNerney vs. DCCC-favored Steve Filson. The winner will take on scandalized Republican Richard Pombo (he himself is facing a primary challenge from Pete McCloskey, a 78 year-old former Congressman who authored the Endangered Species Act). I don't have a dog in this race.
CA-06: In many ways this is the opposite of CA-36. Incumbent Rep. Diane Lynn Woolsey is one of the most liberal members of Congress, and her challenge is coming from the right:
Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey faces a challenge from Assembly member Joe Nation -- her first significant primary contest in more than a decade for the district representing Marin and much of Sonoma counties. Woolsey, elected in 1992, prides herself as being one of the House's most liberal members, attacking the war in Iraq, promoting alternative energy sources, and fighting cuts in health and education spending. Nation, a popular local politician and former economics professor, pitches himself as more moderate and pro-business. He touts his work in the Legislature to push for alternative fuels and his opposition to building a new Death Row at San Quentin Prison in Marin.
MT-Sen: Another huge one to watch. Likeable progressive Jon Tester has got his mojo working and the perceived front-runner, state Auditor John Morrison, has seen his fundraising dip and some of his support shift to the Tester camp in the wake of an extramarital/conflict of interest scandal. Both are still polling ahead of the uber-corrupt Conrad Burns, but it's Tester that has the buzz in this last final stretch. Will it be enough to clinch the nomination? This one will be a nail-biter.
Anything I missed? Consider this a CA and MT-Sen open thread. Have at it.
P.S.: Obviously, I left out the contentious Angelides-Westly battle for the Democratic Nomination for Governor against Schwarzeneggar. The mud-slinging is pretty off-putting in this race, and I'm not inclined to blog much about it other than I hope that the battle will be one more factor to help energize Democratic turn-out in CA-50. But Angelides and Westly fans are more than welcome to duke it out in the comments section.
Posted at 05:18 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, May 18, 2006
CA-50: Is Brian Bilbray's Candidacy Illegal?
Posted by James L.Democrats in CA-50 dropped a bombshell on Wednesday, charging that Brian Bilbray, the Republican candidate to replace disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham in the June 6th special election, does not live in the district. Bilbray claims that he and his wife live with his mother in Carlsbad, which is within CA-50. However, local Democrats, including North County Party Chair Jess Durfee, have uncovered documents which indicate otherwise:
Virginia property records show Bilbray claims a home in Alexandria, Va., as his primary residence, for tax purposes.
Oops.
Even Bilbray's neighbors think otherwise:
Neighbors told 10News they rarely ever see Bilbray at the house, which is his mother’s home.“He comes here occasionally to see his mother like boys will do, but he doesn't live here,” said neighbor Frank Knudsen.
“If he does live here, he must leave late at night and come back early in the morning,” said neighbor Bill Rider.
Another man, who lives right next door, said he wondered when people would catch on that Bilbray does not live here.
Whatever the case, his ambiguous legal residency fits nicely into the DCCC's efforts to paint Bilbray as a representative of DC-centric lobbyists rather than the 50th CD. Going into the home stretch, Democrat Francine Busby has got to be pleased with this break.
UPDATE (DavidNYC): Rick Hasen writes in to say that CA can't impose a residency requirement stricter than that found in the Constitution, which mandates only that a candidate be a resident at the time of election. Hence, he thinks there is nothing illegal about Bilbray's candidacy.
Posted at 02:15 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
CA-50: Busby and Bilbray Tied
Posted by DavidNYCSUSA's being very, very good to us today (likely voters, no trendlines):
Busby: 45
Bilbray: 45
Other: 9
Undecided: 1
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Among Dems, Busby is doing a terrific job - she holds them at a rate of 92-3. (Wow!) Meanwhile, Bilbray holds Republicans by 82-12. Of course, there are many more Republicans in this district, so Busby makes up the difference by obliterating Bilbray with indies, 54-19.
Perhaps the fears of conservatives are bearing fruit: Only 80% of Eric Roach's supported now back Bilbray. We're only talking a couple percent of the overall vote (at most), but that could provide a crucial difference. Busby also steals more votes from Roach & all the other 4/11 candidates than Bilbray does from her (not too surprisingly).
But on the flip-side, I find it troublesome that Bilbray leads among likely voters who did not vote in the 4/11 special, 54-35. According to SUSA, this group makes up 20% of the likely 6/6 voters. I don't know why Bilbray should be doing better among these "new" voters, though I imagine the underlying demographics of the district are at least partly to blame (ie, you expand the pool of voters, you're likely to be including more Republicans).
What concerns me most is that 9% "other". I imagine most of these people are carrying a torch for Roach and the other Republicans whose names are still on the 6/6 ballot. In other words, if anyone can win over that remaining chunk, it's more likely going to be Bilbray rather than Busby. But if those 9% insist on voting for a sure loser, the Busby might be able to pull this one out in the end.
Posted at 09:33 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, May 08, 2006
CA-50: Roach Is Out
Posted by DavidNYCA conservative website is reporting that Eric Roach will not run in the GOP primary against Brian Bilbray. While this might seem like bad news for us, I think it's possible that, had Roach won, he would have driven up turnout among conservatives. These additional voters could have split their tickets between Bilbray (in the special) and Roach (in the primary). Now, at least, we can hope that "true conservatives" stay home because they can't bear the thought of pulling the lever for "liberal" Brian Bilbray. (Confused? As Glen Greenwald has explained in detail, anyone who strays from Bushist orthodoxy even for a moment becomes a liberal in the eyes of movement conservatives.)
If my talk of "ticket splitting" makes no sense and you need a backgrounder on what's going on with the wacky June 6th election, try clicking here.
Posted at 02:59 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
CA-50: Loser Roach Still Running Radio Ads
Posted by DavidNYCMost people shut down their campaign operations when they lose an election. But not millionaire self-funder Eric Roach:
Businessman Eric Roach may have narrowly lost the 50th District congressional special election, but he hasn't stopped running radio spots. One that will begin on several stations today thanks his supporters and urges them to “stay engaged.”The ad is sure to fuel more speculation about whether Roach will challenge Congressman-turned-lobbyist Brian Bilbray in June's primary election, which is the same day as the 50th District runoff. Stan Devereux, Roach's communications director, said Roach would make the decision within a few weeks.
“It was important for Eric to thank the supporters and volunteers who worked hard to elect a conservative to Congress,” Devereux said. “And I'm sure they will be waiting to hear Eric's decision.”
I explained the craziness surrounding the possible June 6th primary in this earlier post. As far as a Roach challenge goes, my fingers are crossed, knock wood, don't walk under any ladders, and all of that!
Posted at 05:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, April 13, 2006
CA-50: Republicans Fracturing?
Posted by DavidNYCEven before Brian Bilbray appeared to clinch a narrow victory Tuesday over 13 other Republican rivals to run against Democrat Francine Busby in eight short weeks to replace disgraced former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, supporters called on the field to "unite" behind Bilbray's candidacy.But a day later, it appeared that unity could be slow in coming.
Eric Roach, Bilbray's nearest Republican rival, said Wednesday through campaign managers that he might ask for a recount of votes cast in the sprawling 50th District ---- a move that would delay Republican solidarity in the weeks of campaigning left before June 6.
If the final tally is especially close - as I'm sure it will be - Roach might even challenge Bilbray in the Republican primary in June. Wait, did I just say "Republican primary?" I must be crazy, right? Actually, no - it's not me who's crazy. It's the California electoral system.
Turns out there are actually two ballots in the June 6th run-off. One is the special "general" election ballot - Busby vs. (as of right now) Bilbray. Whoever wins that becomes a member of Congress immediately. However, it's a brief tenure - there's another general election in November. The candidates on that ballot will be determined by the second of the two June 6th ballots, which constitutes a primary election for the November general election. Confusing, I know.
But the bottom line is this: Bilbray, say, could conceivably beat Busby in June but lose to Roach on the same day. Or vice-versa, if Roach emerges victorious after a recount of Tuesday's vote. Even if something that absurd doesn't come to pass, the very possibility of the GOP duking it out once again warms the cockles of my heart - and it would undoubtedly make Francine Busby's life much easier.
P.S. Stuart O'Neill has a hugely important post up at Political Dogfight about the enormous importance of absentee ballots. In states with generous absentee ballot provisions, this is now where battles are lost and won. A huge percentage of the voter "turnout" on Tuesday actually came in the form of absentee ballots. Please read Stuart's post, because it has wide application - far beyond just Busby's race.
Posted at 05:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
CA-50: Post Mortem
Posted by DavidNYCWe all know the results of last night's election. This of course means we have a run-off scheduled for June 6th. I'd love to do a full post-mortem right now, and I definitely have plenty of thoughts. Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of preparing for our Passover seder tonight so I just don't have the time. However, I am sure all the usual suspects (MyDD, Kos, Hotline, CQ, etc.) have a lot to say, so go check `em out.
And to everyone observing the holiday tonight, chag sameach.
Posted at 02:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
CA-50: Election Results Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCPolls close in just a few minutes. However, as is usually the case, we probably won't have results for a while - perhaps not for an hour-and-a-half.
Results: SD County | SD Union Tribune | North Country Times
Christine Pelosi will be updating live from Busby HQ at Trail Mix. And Chris Bowers has promised to follow the results into the wee hours, if necessary, over at MyDD. As for me, I'll obviously be keeping a close eye, but tonight won't be a repeat performance of the Tracy-and-David tag-team duo for TX-28 - there's only so many frenetic "live bloggings" one can do in a lifetime.
UPDATE: Gah! Hard to resist the siren lure of live blogging. Results for early voting are in, showing Busby with 42% and Bilbray and Roach neck-and-neck at 14%. These might be the only results we see for a while. But if Busby is to reach 50%, she seriously has her work cut out for her. So far, 64,715 ballots have been cast. There are 360K RVs in the district, so that's an 18% turnout. I've put together a chart which shows how much of the remaining votes Busby would need, depending upon possible election-day turnouts:
If 20% turnout, 119% of election-day vote (ie, impossible)
If 25%, 70%
If 30%, 62%
If 35%, 58%
If 40%, 56%
You may want to check my math, but I think that's what it looks like. By way of comparison, Steve Young won only 25% of the early vote but won 35% of the election-day vote in the CA-48 special run-off. So large spreads are indeed possible, but, as you may recall, the configuration of that election was very unusual and rather different from what we've got today.
UPDATE: I'm headed to bed. This race seems likely headed for a run-off. But even if Busby were to win tonight, she'd still face another election in November. So please consider helping her out - she'll need it no matter what happens tonight.
Posted at 11:10 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCToday's the day.
• SUSA just released a new poll putting Busby at 47%. An outright victory could just happen, but the pessimist (realist?) in me thinks a finish in the 40s is more likely.• Chris Bowers has a detailed post here, titled "What To Look For In CA-50 Tonight." He explores his predictions and the shape of the GOP field.
• Polls close at 8pm Pacific (11pm Eastern). Sign On San Diego, the official site of the SD Union Tribune, says it will carry live results, but they haven't posted a specific link yet. If you know of any other sites which will carry live results, please post them in comments.
Please use this thread to discuss any and everything pertaining to today's election. Go Francine!
UPDATE: SD County official election returns site is here. (Thanks to Predictor.)
Posted at 02:39 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
CA-50: Kaloogian is a Liar
Posted by DavidNYCOh man. This is WAY more fun than polls. Just a day ago, Kossack AnthonyLA saw a photo on Howard Kaloogian's website. This was the photo:
And this was the smug caption, worthy of the trashiest right-wing blogs:
We took this photo of dowtown Baghdad while we were in Iraq. Iraq (including Baghdad) is much more calm and stable than what many people believe it to be. But, each day the news media finds any violence occurring in the country and screams and shouts about it - in part because many journalists are opposed to the U.S. effort to fight terrorism.
A whole lot of people agreed with Anthony that Kaloogian's photo of "downtown Baghdad" actually looked rather Turkish. There was a lot of evidence to support this belief, but the final, incontrovertible proof wound up looking like this:
Another Kossack, jem6x, found this photo (with the help of a friend) on the website of a Turkish photographer, Faruk. Faruk's photo does indeed capture a slice of Turkey - the Istanbul suburb of Bakirkoy. As this montage shows, there's no question that Faruk's and Kaloogian's photos describe the same place:
Or, as Josh Marshall waggishly puts it, it's at least a four-point match. So much for that "calm and stable" Iraq, huh? I'm hardly surprised that conservatives would go to such lengths to lie about the state of affairs in Iraq. But you'd think they'd try a little harder, no? Anyhow, serious props to all these enterprising citizens of the blogosphere - and just add this to the list of things which prove that Howard Kaloogian is a liar.
Posted at 03:20 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: SUSA Poll Puts Busby at 45
Posted by DavidNYCSurvey USA has a new poll out on the CA-50 congressional race (likely voters, no trendlines):
Busby (D): 45
Roach (R): 14
Kaloogian (R): 12
Bilbray (R): 10
Morrow (R): 5
Uke (R): 5
Other: 6
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±5%)
What's interesting is that SUSA shows a better peformance by Busby than even her own campaign's poll did. However, the sample here is much more Democratic than, say, the recent Datamar poll. SUSA has a 46-38 GOP-Dem split while Datamar was at 54-33 (PDF). I'd like to believe that this poll means that Busby has a shot at clearing 50% on April 11th, but I still think there will be a run-off.
Also, none of these three polls can agree on the posture of the GOP field. Bilbray, for instance, had a strong lead in the Busby poll, a narrow lead in the Datamar poll, and a third-place showing in the SUSA poll. On this front, I won't hazard a guess as to the likely winner - it's just too up-in-the-air.
Posted at 02:50 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, March 27, 2006
CA-50: Two Polls Show Busby With Wide Leads
Posted by DavidNYCThe first poll is an internal poll taken for the campaign. Unfortunately, there is no link available yet, but here it is (likely special election voters, no trendlines):
Francine Busby (D): 39
Brian Bilbray (R): 15
Howard Kaloogian (R): 7
Eric Roach (R): 7
Bill Morrow (R): 4
Alan Uke (R): 3
Paul King (L): 2
Richard Earnest (R): 1
Chris Young (D): 1
Victor Ramirez (R): 1
Bill Hauf (R): 1
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Seven candidates scored zero percent in the Busby poll. The second survey (PDF) was taken by an independent company called Datamar ("high-propensity" registered voters, no trendlines):
Francine Busby (D): 36
Brian Bilbray (R): 11.7
Eric Roach (R): 11.2
Howard Kaloogian (R): 10.6
Scott Orren (R): 5
Bill Morrow (R): 4.8
Alan Uke (R): 3
Bill Hauf (R): 2.7
Richard Earnest (R): 2
Bill Boyer (R): 1.7
Paul King (L): 1.5
William Griffith (no party): 1.3
Scott Turner (R): 1.3
Chris Young (D): 1
Delicia Holt (R): 0.6
Jeff Newsome (R): 0.5
Victor Ramirez (R): 0.3
Milton Gale (R): 0.1
Undecided: 3.6
(MoE: ±4.07%)
It's nice to see an independent poll largely mirror the results of the internal poll. Don't get too excited, though. In case you aren't familiar with how California special elections work, the problem is this: The top finisher from each party advances to the next round, unless someone gets 50% the first time around. Busby may be in the lead, but she's well off the fifty-percent mark, so we're almost certainly headed to a run-off (which would take place on June 6th).
In the run-off, this enormous field will get whittled down to just two serious players: Busby, and whoever wins the GOP "nomination." The Republicans will have two months to unite behind their guy, and they'll be able to pump tons of money into this race. Busby's done well financially, but she faces the simple natural disadvantage of running in a district that tilts pretty solidly Republican. As you can see from both polls, Busby would necessarily have to win over some people who are currently voting for a GOPer in order to win in June.
Some people have made a comparison to the San Diego special mayoral election last year. There, Democrat Donna Frye pulled in 43% of the vote in the first round, but lost 54-46 in the final round to a candidate who had only gotten 27% in the first round. For whatever reason, Frye was only able to add three percent to her vote totals, while her opponent doubled his score. It's possible a similar scenario could play out in CA-50.
We do have a few things working in our favor, though. The big one is felon Duke Cunningham's long, scabrous shadow. Busby will be able to remind voters what party Cunningham belonged to at every opportunity. The second thing is that the GOP "primary" has taken some nasty turns - including, as I've mentioned, Republican groups openly attacking front-runner Brian Bilbray. And lastly, by all accounts, Busby has run a very sharp, mistake-free campaign. She raised over half a mil before January and will probably show solid numbers when the current quarter comes to a close. I look forward to seeing what those look like.
Posted at 06:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, March 24, 2006
CA-50: GOPer Sends Out Possibly Illegal Mailer (& More!)
Posted by DavidNYCFun stuff. Until recently, the CA-50 special election had been a surprisingly low-key affair. However, with the election now less than three weeks away, the Republicans are - unsurprisingly - resorting to dirty tricks. When it comes to sending out campaign communications, there's a little thing called "the law," and one GOPer candidate (Eric Roach) looks to have broken it. Check out 2 USC § 441d:
Whenever a political committee makes a disbursement for the purpose of financing any communication through any... mailing... such communication... if paid for and authorized by a candidate... shall clearly state that the communication has been paid for by such authorized political committee....
In other words, if you send out a mailer, you've got to put one of those little disclaimers on it, saying who authorized and paid for the mailer. The Roach campaign sent out a two-page letter - purporting to be from his wife, Meg - but didn't include any disclaimers at all. Not on page one, not on page two, not on the front of the envelope, not on the back of the envelope.
What's even more pathetic is the visual presentation of the letter itself. It's a lame-ass attempt to make the letter look like a true "personal note" from Meg Roach. Check out how cheeseball it looks, from (as the SD Dem Party put it) the "folksy letterhead to the faux-handwritten printing":
Between the typeface (I think they used the font "Teenage Girl 12 point") and the absence of any campaign indicia, this letter is seriously misleading - and, as far as I can tell, illegal. Fortunately, the aforementioned San Diego County Democratic Party has filed a complaint with the FEC. Given how glacially the FEC moves, I'm sure nothing official will come of it until long after the election is over. But this is a big black eye for Roach (who was the second-place GOPer in the most recent known poll).
In other CA-50 news, a major conservative group called the California Republican Assembly has launched a website attacking... a fellow Republican, front-runner Brian Bilbray. It's pretty hilarious - the site tries to make the claim that Bilbray is both a "liberal" and in bed with Jack Abramoff. I'm more than willing to buy the latter argument, but as to the former... well, if the Republicans want to savage one of their own with ridiculous claims, who am I to argue? (The CRA has apparently endorsed Bill Morrow, one of the straggler candidates.)
Lastly, Francine Busby has released a new ad. You can check it out here.
(Hat tips to McJoan, Juls, and the SD County Dems.)
Posted at 07:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Dropout News Roundup
Posted by DavidNYCThere are two media events going on today in races swirling with confusion. One is taking place as we speak: Elton Gallegly is conducting a press conference right here in DC. We should hopefully get press reports back soon.
The other takes place at 9 o'clock tonight, when Kathy Harris seeks the warm, lickspittle embrace of Sean Hannity to announce her future plans. The rumour du jour is that she will resign from the House to focus only on her Senate race. Personally, I wonder why more people don't do this - after all, it's not like she gets to keep her House seat if she loses the Senate race. But doing so might also require a special election (something I haven't looked into yet).
In other dropout-related news, Markos points to this short note at the Hotline blog which says that Conrad Burns just hired a political director - not the sort of move someone on the verge of dropping out tends to make.
UPDATE: Gallegly will indeed run again. I still say he bails shortly after winning, forcing a special election. We should be ready for that eventuality. What Dems in the area might make strong candidates?
UPDATE: Harris is staying in, too. Haven't heard anything about her resigning from the House, though.
Posted at 04:20 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Florida, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
CA-24: Gallegly Back In?
Posted by DavidNYCRoll Call is reporting that Gallegly has changed his mind and will seek re-election. This comes from an anonymous source, so we'll see how good this rumor really is. My take: Gallegly will "run" for re-election and then resign to force a special election, giving local GOPers another bite at the apple.
Posted at 10:29 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, March 13, 2006
CA-24: Tenenbaum vs. Martinez
Posted by DavidNYCAs you probably know by now, somehow another GOP candidate managed to file by the deadline in CA-24. It's rather odd - did this fellow, a political nobody named Michael Tenenbaum, really plan on challenging Gallegly in a primary? That would have been worse than hopeless - it would have put him on the outs with the local establishment. So that suggests one of two things to me: Tenebaum either has poor political judgment or he's extremely lucky. And no one's that lucky.
Gallegly's people say they tipped a few local bigwigs about Gallegy's medical retirement, but none of them were interested in running. I doubt they called up Tenenbaum (and they don't claim to have), but perhaps Tenenbaum found out through the grapevine and seized an opportunity. That would, conversely, indicate that he's one sharp S.O.B.
The bottom line is, Tenenbaum's presence on the ballot makes this a far less attractive situation. With no GOPer running at all, we had a chance to win this one on cruise control. But now, Gallegly will likely endorse Tenenbaum, and the local establishment will make sure the latter wins the Republican primary. Our only candidate, Jill Martinez, is also an unknown, and in a showdown between two neophytes, straight-ticket voting is going to determine the outcome. And all you need to know is that this district went 56-43 for Bush.
There's only one bit of hope I can offer: There's a chance that Gallegly could still win the primary, in a "Jeff Johnson"-type situation. Since many local Republicans appear pretty steamed at Gallegly, they may choose not to help Tenenbaum out of pique (and perhaps the belief that they'd have an easier time beating Martinez in two years). But Tenenbaum and Gallegly have three months to clear up the Jeff Johnson problem, so I'm not optimistic.
UPDATE: Ah, a little bit of news from the optimism department:
But it remains an open question whether Gallegly would support Tenenbaum, who held a press conference Friday expressing his dissatisfaction with the congressman’s 20-year House record.“The incumbent’s current record speaks for itself. He is wasting taxpayer dollars, doesn’t recognize the importance of securing our borders and he has pursued a legislative agenda that is misguided at best,” said Tenenbaum. He also contends that Gallegly’s supporters tried to bully him out of the race.
So it looks like Tenenbaum is the tilt-at-windmills sort - and that he did not get any kind of inside information prompting him to run. Taking on a popular twenty-year incumbent is not usually the way to endear yourself to party insiders. Gallegly may yet get behind Tenenbaum to defuse the anger over his screw-up (that whole "five day extension" thing doesn't apply to federal races), but it looks to me like the local GOP will have to navigate some rocky shoals in the days ahead.
Posted at 03:46 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, March 10, 2006
CA-24: Gallegly (R) Retiring - But There's More!
Posted by DavidNYCAlright, so I'm done studying. Here's a bit of interesting news: Yet another GOPer - in this case, Rep. Elton Gallegly (CA-24) - has announced his retirement. Gallegly says it's