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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

New National Journal House Rankings

Posted by James L.

You can view the new montly rankings here. As an added bonus, and a reflection of what the National Journal believes to be a more competitive field, they've expanded the rankings to the top 50 competitive seats from 25.

Lots of big movers, including Chris Shays (R) vaulting into the top ten; TX-22 shooting up to #14 with the possibility of DeLay's return; NY-24 (an open seat formerly held by moderate Republican Sherwood Boehlert) jumping to #16 simply because of the absolute weakness of the Republican field in New York. Also, potentially vulnerable Democratic incuments like Mollohan (WV) and Melancon (LA) are ranked in safer positions. However, Republicans are gaining some strength in a few races, like NC-11 (something about Shuler not spending enough time campaigning--sounds surprising to me), WI-08, and VT-AL (I still highly doubt this seat will be picked up by Martha Rainville).

Overall, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but the big upside? There's only one incumbent Democrat in the top 20 competitive races: Leonard Boswell (IA-03), ranked at #12 this month (down from 10).

The Top 50.

Posted at 12:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Biggest surprises.....

The poll showing Martha Rainville in a tie in VT-AL. Where was this poll? The only poll I saw showed her trailing by about 10 points (and not rising out of the high 20's in support) with about half the voters still undecided. I can't imagine Vermont would replace Bernie Sanders with a George Bush ally this year. How can this race be in top-50?

The fact that NH-01 is on the list but not NH-02, which demographically, at least, seems like a much easier win.

The suggestion that "money is coming in slow" for Tim Walz in MN-01. Huh? Didn't Walz outraise Gutknecht last quarter?

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, Walz outraised Gutknect, but it wasn't anything stellar--it's just that Gutknecht has a huge cash-on-hand advantage (money left over from his '04 campaign account).

As for the VT poll, see here. It showed a slight lead for Welsh (45-42), which has got the GOP giddy as schoolgirls.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 01:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Am I the only person puzzled by the low ranking of Chet Edwards? He's a very fine politician I realize, but that's an exceptionally hard seat for any Democrat to hold, and his opponent this cycle has a good deal of money and is much stronger than the one he faced in 2004.

That said, if a Democrat who'd seem as endangered as him is so low on this list, this shaping up to be a big year for the Democrats.

Posted by: ArmandK [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2006 03:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Martha Rainville hasn't even won her primary yet,
unless State Senator Mark Shepherd has withdrawn
(and when I checked earlier this week, he hadn't).
She's a potentially formidable candidate, but sheesh.

Posted by: Christopher Walker [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 05:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment