Friday, September 29, 2006
VA-Sen: Say Hello to Spitgate
Posted by James L.First it was Macacagate. Then it was Deerheadgate, and, uh, Rugbygate. The slow drip of questions surrounding George Allen's racist past have turned into an all-out deluge this week with witness after witness stepping out of the woodwork and revealing more incidents of Allen's legacy of racism.
But forget about all that stuff for a moment. Lost in the shuffle of these explosive revelations is another one of Allen's nasty habits that speaks volumes to his character: George Allen likes to spit on women's feet. It sounds ridiculous, I know, but bear with me and say hello to Spitgate.
First, check out this Dailykos diary posted by a former writer for a Southwest Virginia newspaper to set the mood (emphasis added):
Mr. Allen visited our town to announce a major contract for the local defense plant. I was there because my editor had sent me. [...]Governor Allen rode up in a big recreational vehicle. He looked so tall as he came out of the house-on-wheels. He was wearing a nice suit and his hair was neatly combed. He smiled and worked his way into the platoon of defense workers, who seemed to be all men. I looked around and realized I was the only female standing on the pavement in the sunshine. How about that?
I listened to what the governor was saying. My editor had told me Mr. Allen would talk about jobs and how wonderful this new defense contract was. I listened carefully, but the governor did not say a word about jobs. Instead, he made a few jokes with the workers, then he pulled a small, flat can from his jacket pocket. He asked if anybody else "dipped." One of the workers said yes, he dipped, but not the same brand, and all the men laughed.
Mr. Allen used his fingers to pinch out a clump of the finely chopped tobacco; he mashed it into his mouth and grinned, licking his lips. His bottom lip pooched out where he had lodged the tobacco. The other men chuckled like they were having a grand time.
Then the governor walked toward a building with some men who were not part of the platoon of workers. These other men were clearly Important; they wore suits. One of the suits had already told me I was not allowed to go into the building because a defense plant has Secrets.
I followed along as the governor walked, waiting to hear him say something about jobs. The situation began to look as if I would have to return to the newspaper office without hearing him say anything about "our fine workers." I didn't understand; I had to ask a question.
I stepped near the governor and smiled, told him my name and that I wrote for the local newspaper. Then I asked him a softball question, what some reporters call a "set-up."
"Does Southwest Virginia need these jobs?" I asked.
He stopped and looked straight at me. He had to look down at me, because he stood so tall in those cowboy boots. I thought I spotted a twinkle in his eye, and for a moment, I suspected he might give a humorous, light-hearted answer. Then he leaned forward and looked all the way down at the pavement. I figured he was planning a perfectly crafted answer to my question. I put pen to paper, ready to take it down. His lips puckered as if he might speak.
Then, the Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia gathered up a glob of tobacco-laced saliva. He used his lips to squirt it out, as if he had practiced. The spit landed just at the tip of my shoe. He grinned, but didn't say a word. Then he walked into the building.
Rude, boorish, and completely disgusting, to be sure, but it's just a weird isolated story, right? Wrong. You don't have to dig deep to find numerous eerily similar stories on Allen's behavior around women when he's got a nasty gob of tobacco in his mouth. In fact, when I first read that diary, my mind was jarred as I recalled a story that Sarah Carter, the daughter of Nevada Senatorial candidate Jack Carter and granddaughter of President Jimmy Carter, shared in a July DailyKos comment:
My husband’s family lives in Virginia. Several years ago, his little sister went with a friend to a parade where George Allen was making an appearance, and her friend’s Mom got a chance to speak to Allen. While they were talking, he was chewing tobacco. He spit on the ground and a fleck of brown spittle landed on my sister-in-law’s shoe. She was horrified.So now you know: George Allen spits on little girls.
Sarah
Seeing a pattern emerge yet? No? Well, here's some more, courtesy of the New Republic's Ryan Lizza:
It's credible enthusiasm given that, this afternoon, Allen resembles a froufrou version of Toby Keith. He is wearing a blue button-down shirt and brown pants accented with a fat brass belt buckle that says virginia in stylized, countrified letters. And, of course, he's wearing the cowboy boots. They are black, broken in, and vaguely reptilian. From his back pocket, he removes a tin of Copenhagen--"the brand of choice for adult consumers who identify with its rugged, individual and uncompromising image," according to the company--and taps a fat wad of the tobacco between his lip and gum using an impressive one-handed maneuver. As the scrum breaks up, Allen turns away and spits a long brown streak of saliva into the dirt, just missing one of his constituents, a carefully put-together, blonde, ponytailed woman approaching the senator for an autograph. She stops in her tracks and stares with disgust at the bubbly tobacco juice that almost landed on her feet. Without missing a beat, Allen's communications director, John Reid, reassures her: "That's just authenticity!".
"Authenticity," John, or just another one of George Allen's disturbing personal habits? Or just another one of his ways of demeaning people?
No, I'm not done yet. There's yet another story of Allen's salivary dark arts, this time from the letters section of the Bristol Herald Courier. The original page seems to be scrubbed, but luckily Google's cache caught it for posterity:
I was not surprised by Sen. Allen’s crude remarks aimed at a Democratic campaign worker. Several years ago, while I was engaged in research at the Dickenson County courthouse, I heard that then-Gov. Allen was on his way to a groundbreaking for the new Red Onion prison. A friend and I drove up to the site, not realizing until we arrived that it was a Republican-only event.Allen was escorted by a politician who, noting our presence, made some comment to him and pointed at us. We stood with a small semi-circle of onlookers waiting to shake Allen’s hand, but he deliberately skipped the two of us and continued shaking hands with others in the line.
He made a few remarks to the crowd and then stood with his back to us, turning once to aim a jet of tobacco spit directly at our feet. Although he had never met us before, he made us well aware of his sentiments. A small incident, yes, but very revealing of his attitude. He did not intend to treat Democrats with the slightest common courtesy.
So there you have it. Four separate stories of people stepping forward with George Allen's saliva on their shoes. The consensus is pretty clear: George Allen gets his kicks by spitting on or at people. Coincidentally, all of them have been women.
Posted at 01:03 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
VA-Sen: Help Support the Most Effective Ad of the Year (and New SUSA Poll)
Posted by James L.I just want to reiterate what's been said by Markos and Stoller. This ad by VoteVets PAC is by far the most brilliant and effective ad I've seen this cycle:
Truly chilling. VoteVets has already gone up on the air in Virginia to help defeat George Allen, but they'd like to expand their air war to other states with vulnerable incumbent Republican senators up for re-election who voted against proper body armor. If you have the means, please consider donating to VoteVets PAC. If you contribute directly via their website, you'll get a chance to vote for the next senator who'll receive their own version of this ad aired against them. I can't tell you how thrilled I am to have an ad this crystal clear and effective on our side this year, but we need to expand this battle beyond Virginia. So if you've got any Big Money friends who are itching to help the Democrats take back the Senate this year, tell them to cut a $5,000 check to VoteVets PAC. It could be the most effective political investment you'll make this year. VoteVets is the real deal, too; just check out their list of advisors: Gen. Wesley Clark, Paul Hackett, Bob Kerrey, Leslie Gelb, etc.
And we'll need effective ads like this one by VoteVets in order to counter right-wing hysteria messages like this one.
UPDATE: Via the Political Wire, SurveyUSA has a new poll out today showing Allen edging Webb 48-45, with a 4.6% MoE. This is the exact same result as a poll done by SUSA three weeks ago, during the height of the macaca controversy, showing that Allen's racist gaffe has not been erased from the minds of voters (and given that Allen apologized again for the incident today, he knows he's in trouble).
Posted at 04:30 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, September 10, 2006
VA-Sen: Mason-Dixon Has Webb Within Four
Posted by James L.Mason-Dixon, one of the best in the biz, confirms what we've been seeing in the recent SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls (with Zogby Interactive being just a little too optimistic for Webb)--Webb has the big mo' (likely voters, July in parens):
Jim Webb (D): 42 (32)
George Felix Allen, Jr. (R): 46 (48)
Undecided: 12 (20)
MoE: ±4%
Here's the Macaca Effect at work:
While most voters said the “macaca” comment did little to change their minds about the race, Allen’s unfavorable rating increased from 23 percent to 31 percent between July and September. The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent, with Webb the apparent beneficiary of that shift. Webb’s support among black voters increased from 39 percent to 73 percent.“It’s pretty easy to draw a straight line from that to the 'macaca,’ ” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.
[...]
Allen has a 9-point lead over Webb in Southwest and Southside Virginia and greater margins in the Shenandoah Valley and the Richmond area. But Webb holds a 13-point lead in vote-rich Northern Virginia, an area that was critical to the 2005 victory of Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
If Webb can energize the NoVA vote, Allen is in for a world of pain in November. The best part about these numbers is that they were taken before Webb got on the air in any meaningful way. Webb's first TV ads start tomorrow, I believe, and, as MyDD notes, Schumer has hooked up Webb with Tim Kaine's ad guy. Webb is still a relative unknown quantity in Virginia; as his fundraising and airtime escalates, the chances of this race tightening, or even shifting to Webb are much greater.
The recipe for victory is here. All we need is for Webb and the DSCC to step up and make sure it happens.
Posted at 12:53 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, August 31, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb's Son Deployed to Iraq Early
Posted by James L.From a campaign e-mail:
I wanted to send a note to you today, as a supporter of Jim's campaign and someone who cares about the direction of this country. As many of you know, Jim's son Jimmy, an infantry Lance Corporal in the Marine Corps, has been scheduled to be deployed to Iraq for a number of months. In the last few days, Jimmy learned he would be deploying next week. While Labor Day is the traditional kickoff to the Election and Jim already made many commitments to do events throughout the state, including events with Governor Tim Kaine and Governor Mark Warner, we hope you understand at this time that Jim wants to have time with his son. He will be taking Jimmy back to Camp Lejeune on Monday and will spend time with him and his unit before their deployment.Jim wishes to emphasize that he is not unlike the thousands of parents and families who are sending their children and loved ones to war but that it is important to him that he has some private moments with his son before he deploys. Regardless of the political aspects of this war and your feelings towards it, it's important we keep our thoughts and prayers with the soldiers we are sending into harm's way.
Thank you for your understanding and continued support.
Let's all put Jim Webb and his family in our thoughts this week.
On the web: Jim Webb for Senate
Posted at 07:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
VA-Sen: Here Comes the Cavalry
Posted by James L.From the Richmond Times-Dispatch:
With three polls showing the U.S. Senate race close after George Allen's alleged racial remark, national Democrats yesterday pledged dollars to Jim Webb.The latest survey, by Zogby International, gives Webb, once a long shot, a statistically insignificant lead over the Republican incumbent, who has been sidetracked for two weeks for addressing a Webb volunteer staff member of Indian descent as "macaca."
Sen. Charles E. Schumer of New York, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his group -- the political arm of the Senate Democratic Conference -- will donate an unspecified amount to Webb.
Schumer earlier this summer was noncommittal about directing cash and services to Webb.
"We think this is a neck-and-neck race," Schumer told report- ers when asked about the impact of the Allen controversy. "We plan to provide Jim Webb with the kinds of resources he needs to win."
Schumer's promise comes amid a dramatic shift in the Virginia contest, one triggered by Allen's oral blunder, which apparently has cost his re-election effort momentum and threatens to derail his presidential ambitions in 2008.
Webb has badly trailed Allen in fund raising. After the June primary, he had $424,245 in cash to $6.6 million for Allen. Webb said yesterday in Norfolk that he has collected $2 million since winning the nomination.
"We think we have a very good chance of winning in Virginia," said Schumer.
In related news, Webb's netroots coordinator, Lowell Feld, has a Dailykos diary up highlighting some big names headlining upcoming fundraisers for Webb: 1) fellow authors Stephen King and John Grisham in Charlottsville on Sept. 24 and 2) Gov. Mark Warner on Sept. 21 in Old Town Alexandria. However, he doesn't give any specifics on the upcoming President Clinton fundraiser for Webb.
Let's hope this late push is enough. The last thing I want to see is the DSCC kicking itself over waiting this one out too long.
Posted at 01:04 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb Snags the Big Dog
Posted by James L.From the Richmond-Times Dispatch:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Webb has snared the big guy -- former President Bill Clinton -- to help him raise money for his Senate race.A spokeswoman said the time and place for Clinton's visit have yet to be worked out.
Webb is running against U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, who ended the June 30 fundraising period with a $6 million edge over Webb.
But Webb just completed what his aides say was a successful fundraising trip to Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Money, so far, has been Webb's biggest hurdle that he has yet to clear. A visit from the Big Dog will not only rake in a significant dollar sum for Webb's campaign, but it will also send the signal to national donors that Webb may well be worth the investment. Furthermore--and we saw this attempted by Joe Lieberman a few weeks ago--a Clinton visit will hopefully help boost Jim Webb's appeal among African-Americans (a group that Webb's primary opponent, Harris Miller, sought to carve away from his camp). Now that Sen. Allen is knee-deep in macaca, you've got to believe that minority communities all across Virginia are shopping around for someone a bit more respectable.
Posted at 09:03 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, June 30, 2006
VA-Sen: Senator Dude Ranch
Posted by James L.Steve Jarding of the Jim Webb for Senate campaign cracks me up:
Jarding also took issue with [Allen campaign manager Dick] Wadhams’ attempt to attack Webb as a “Hollywood movie producer” for Webb’s role in the film “Rules of Engagement.”“What part of ‘Rules of Engagement’ did George Felix Allen Jr. and his insensitive mouthpiece Dick Wadhams not respect – military service? Patriotism? Honor? Valor? We know that George Felix Allen Jr. spent much of the Vietnam War years on a dude ranch in Nevada and chose not to serve, but his continued silence as his key staff dismiss military personnel and their patriotism is beginning to shine a very unfavorable light on Senator Dude Ranch,” Jarding said.
If nothing else, this is gonna be one of the most amusing races to watch this cycle. Heh. "Senator Dude Ranch".
Posted at 11:47 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Late Night Poll Round-up: MA-Gov, VA-Sen, GA-Gov, Pew and Gallup
Posted by James L.MA-Gov: Buzz candidate and former Clinton Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Deval Patrick is now pulling significantly ahead of Massachusetts Attorney General Tom Reilly in the Democratic primary for Governor, while businessman Chris Gabrieli (who has pumped $2.5 million into a hefty TV ad campaign) is threatening to leave Reilly in third place if this trend continues (likely voters, May in parens).
Deval Patrick (D): 31 (20)
Tom Reilly (D): 25 (35)
Chris Gabrieli (D): 22 (15)
MoE: ±4%
Obviously a big part of Patrick's bounce has to do with snagging the MA Democratic Party endorsement at the recent state convention, but Patrick is also pushing himself as a fresh face in a state full of tired, entrenched incumbents. In a hypothetical general election match-up, however, all three candidates lead Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey by wide margins.
Massachusetts has been reluctant to give the Democrats full control of every lever of power in the state, hence the lack of a Democrat in the Governor's mansion since Dukakis. But after seeing Romney veto bills in favor of embryonic stem cell research and emergency contraception (both vetoes were overridden by the MA legislature) in order to prove his conservative cred for a possible '08 White House bid, it seems like the good people of Massachusetts are tired of their Governors playing petty political games with the veto button. It will be a pleasure to watch Deval Patrick's campaign in the weeks and months ahead.
VA-Sen (SUSA, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Webb (D): 37
George Felix Allen, Jr. (R): 56
Gail Parker (I): 2
MoE: ±4.3%
It's not too surprising, given that Webb just came off a nasty primary that he won by just a few points, and that Allen has already been saturating tthe airwaves with TV ads. Given that Webb has a lot of ground to cover, including introducing himself via TV and radio (his campaign only aired a few radio spots during the final days of the primary due to funding constraints), there's clearly potential for him to make this race a lot tighter, given the proper funding.
GA-Gov: Oh right, there's a race here. (Strategic Vision [R], likely voters, May in parens)
Mark Taylor (D): 44 (39)
Sonny Perdue (R-Inc.): 50 (51)Cathy Cox (D): 40 (42)
Sonny Perdue (R-Inc.): 53 (50)
MoE: ±3%
Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, and I'm not terribly comfortable in treating their work on the same par as SUSA or Gallup. Still, as far as the Georgia Governor's race is concerned, the pickin's is slim. The same poll shows Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor edging Secretary of State Cathy Cox by 46-42, a significant swing from last month's 42-47 margin in Cox's favor. I'm not sure why Taylor has caught a break this month, as I have not been following this race closely, but even the locals are scratching their heads.
Finally, two new polls by Gallup and Pew seem to contradict certain theories bouncing around the blogosphere that Democrats are weary and dispirited, and won't turn up at the polls this November.
First, from Gallup:
Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. They are more inclined to deliver significant gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans won control of the House and Senate in 1994.Those surveyed are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gasoline prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.
President Bush looms as a significant drag: 40% of Americans say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. A fifth say they are more likely.
[...]
• Democrats are particularly engaged: 56% say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual," the highest level recorded since the question was first asked in 1994. Among Republicans, 43% say they are more enthusiastic than usual.
• Americans are increasingly likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Including those who "lean" to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats; 38%, Republicans. That's the biggest edge for Democrats since 1998. By 54%-38%, the registered voters surveyed say they'd vote for a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one if the election were held today.
Et cetera. And this comes from a Democratic base that STILL isn't particularly enamored with congressional Democrats.
And, from Pew Research, more of the same:
With less than five months to go before Election Day, Democrats hold two distinct advantages in the midterm campaign that they have not enjoyed for some time. First, Americans continue to say they favor the Democratic candidate in their district, by a 51% to 39% margin. Second, the level of enthusiasm about voting among Democrats is unusually high, and is atypically low among Republicans. In fact, Democrats now hold a voter enthusiasm advantage that is the mirror image of the GOP's edge in voter zeal leading up to the 1994 midterm election. [emphasis added][...]
The heightened Democratic enthusiasm is particularly notable among liberal Democrats, 53% of whom are more interested in voting this year than usual. The partisan gap in enthusiasm is even visible among independents - those who lean Democratic are considerably more eager to vote than those who lean Republican. Overall, 47% of voters who plan to vote Democratic this fall say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 30% of voters who plan to vote Republican.
The higher level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters is linked to two underlying attitudes: anger at the president and optimism about Democrats chances in the fall. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of those who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district think of their vote this fall as a vote against George W. Bush. These anti-Bush voters are significantly more motivated to vote - 52% say they are more eager to vote this year than usual, compared with 39% among those who say Bush is not a factor in their vote.
There's tons of juicy data and analysis to pore over in both the Gallup and Pew studies. But I'm going to leave the rest up to you night owls.
Posted at 01:51 AM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Georgia, Massachusetts, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Virginia Primary Results
Posted by James L.VA-SEN: 41.66% 56.22% 59.43% 65.29% 73.53% 85.14% 92.38% of Precincts Reporting
Harris Miller (D):26,831 (52.60%)40,916 (49.18%)43,641 (48.58%)48,025 (47.68%)52,148 (47.73%)59,266 (47.08%)63,354 (46.75%)
Jim Webb (D):24,179 (47.40%)42,276 (50.82%)46,185 (51.42%)52,703 (52.32%)57,117 (52.27%)66,606 (52.92%)72,165 (53.25%)
It looks like it's gonna be Webb. It's Jim Webb. Kudos to the VA netroots and the Jim Webb campaign for winning this one despite being heavily outspent.
Posted at 07:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, April 27, 2006
VA-Sen: Holy Moly
Posted by DavidNYCPolitical Wire received an advance copy of a New Republic profile of Sen. George Allen (R-VA) in which author Ryan Lizza finds many of Allen's high school classmates surprised that he's considering running for president because of the racist tendencies he displayed as a teenager. They say he "plastered the school with confederate flags" and drove a red Mustang with a confederate flag on the front. Then Lizza got a copy of Allen's high school yearbook:I stared closely at Allen’s smirk in his photo, weighing whether his old classmates were just out to destroy him. And then I noticed something on his collar. It’s hard to make out, but then it becomes obvious. Seventeen-year-old George Allen is wearing a Confederate flag pin.When confronted with this evidence, Allen sent an email through an aide with this explanation: "When I was in high school in California, I generally bucked authority and the rebel flag was just a way to express that attitude.”
Wow. Just wow. And Allen can't even offer the meager excuse that he was "embracing his heritage" or anything like that - he grew up in California, his dad is from Detroit, and his mother is from Tunisia. If there is any justice in this world, Allen's aspirations for higher office would completely vanish today. Since I'm not that optimistic, I can at least hope that Jim Webb crushes him come November.
Posted at 12:43 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, February 10, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb's Website is Up
Posted by DavidNYCGet ready for a season of non-stop bad Webb/web puns: James Webb's, uh, website is up. It's a start, but I think they need to start using Media Mezcla's Campaign Engine. All the cool sites are using it!
Posted at 10:37 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
VA-Sen: Webb is In!
Posted by DavidNYCOh man, this is exciting news:
Former Navy Secretary James H. Webb Jr. said yesterday that he will file papers this week to seek the Democratic nomination to run for the U.S. Senate this year.Webb, who lives in Arlington County, would join Harris N. Miller, a Fairfax County computer executive, in seeking the party's nomination.
The nominee will oppose U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican who is seeking a second six-year term in the Senate. Allen is a strong favorite.
Webb, who was secretary of the Navy under Republican President Ronald Reagan, resigned in protest of cutbacks in the Navy fleet. He has been a strong critic of the war in Iraq, saying that the Bush administration has never developed an exit strategy.
As I've said repeatedly, I think Webb will make a great candidate with a compelling storyline (former Reagan official turns Dem). As you may also know, Webb is a graduate of Annapolis - perhaps he'll put in a surprise appearance at tomorrow's Band of Brothers event in DC. I'm not hinting - just hoping!
(Thanks to Jambon.)
Posted at 01:08 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Friday, February 03, 2006
VA-Sen: Wait - Webb's Not Out!
Posted by DavidNYCA few days ago, I passed along an item from Raising Kaine which said that James Webb was out of the running for VA-Sen. But wait, not so fast!
As you all know, earlier this week I reported that James Webb had decided not to run for U.S. Senate from Virginia this year. This was based on direct contact with Webb, and was information that was rock solid at the time. However, times change. Today, I met with James Webb for 3 hours, along with my colleagues Josh Chernila and Lee Diamond, and I am authorized to say the following on Webb’s behalf: “Webb is definitely not out. Stay tuned for an announcement next week.”
This is good news. As I've said in the past, I think Webb is the most attractive candidate we can offer for this race. If you agree with me, you can head over to his website and send a brief friendly note encouraging him to run. You can also fill out the Draft James Webb petition.
(Hat tip to thegools.)
P.S. Speaking of VA-Sen, this man seriously wants to be president?
Indeed, here is what Senator George Allen of Virginia, who is considering a bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, said when asked his opinion of the Bernanke nomination."For what?"
Told that Mr. Bernanke was up for the Fed chairman's job, Mr. Allen hedged a little, said he had not been focused on it, and wondered aloud when the hearings would be. Told that the Senate Banking Committee hearings had concluded in November, the senator responded: "You mean I missed them all? I paid no attention to them."
We always knew you were a lightweight, Sen. Allen. Thanks for the extra evidence.
(Thanks to HoosADem.)
Posted at 11:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
VA-Lege: Dems Pick Up Another Seat in Special Election
Posted by DavidNYCDemocrat Mark Herring won a special election to VA's state Senate tonight. What makes this especially welcome news is that the seat was formerly held by a Republican, so this counts as a pickup for us. I believe the margin in that chamber is now 23-17. Virginia's on a roll - excellent work, guys!
Posted at 08:50 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Special Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Sen: Is James Webb Out?
Posted by DavidNYCLowell at Raising Kaine is reporting that James Webb won't take on George Allen in VA-Sen this year. I have no reason to doubt the folks at RK, but I haven't been able to find an official confirmation from Webb. If true, though, then this is bad news indeed. James Webb is an exciting guy to me - I just can't say the same about Harris Miller, who is a Herb Kohl at best.
Posted at 11:19 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 19, 2006
VA-Gov: Tim Kaine to Deliver SOTU Response
Posted by DavidNYCAccording to Roll Call (sub. req.), the Dems will ask newly elected Virginia Governor Tim Kaine to deliver our party's response to the State of the Union address. Hamsher of FireDogLake thinks we should be tapping John Murtha, and I'm inclined to agree. I like Tim Kaine, and I think he's certainly a good choice. But I think Murtha is the better choice, because he's associated with an issue we really need to lead with, and because we need to strike while the iron is hot - Murtha was making waves not long ago. It might also give him a chance to (obliquely) hammer the newest round of Swift Boaters. But I'm guessing the decision has been made, and Kaine it will be.
Posted at 12:15 PM in Democrats, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 05, 2006
VA-Sen: Allen Takes a Page from the Burns Playbook
Posted by DavidNYCGeorge Allen then:
In 2000, Sen. George Allen hammered Chuck Robb for accepting campaign contributions in 1994 from a controversial donor tied to Bill Clinton and Al Gore. His campaign manager even chided Robb for not pushing for a federal prosecutor to look into the issue: "It's obvious to us why Chuck Robb won't get involved," said LaCivita. "He's just as guilty as Al Gore." ["Robb Trumpets His Role in Fighting Drugs, Crime," Richmond Times-Dispatch, June 24, 2000.]
George Allen now:
When asked about the $3,000 the senator received from Abramoff and friends, Allen’s spokesman told the Virginian-Pilot yesterday that, "[Allen] will neither refund nor donate to charity a $1,000 gift received from Abramoff during Allen’s 2000 Senate campaign. The money was spent long ago and the campaign account closed, said David Snepp, Allen’s press secretary, so 'the money does not exist to give it back.'"
Of course, the last time a Republican Senator started claiming that he couldn't pay back Abramoff money, he changed his tune in just a matter of days. And in Conrad Burns' case, we were talking about $150 large. George Allen can certainly cough up a meager $1,000, so I'd expect an embarrassing flip-flop sometime soon.
P.S. This whole "the money's been spent" notion seems to be just another part of the Republican War on Analogy. In other words, according to the GOP, if you don't literally have the exact same dollars you were once given, you can't return money. Of course, that's the same as someone saying he can't pay his taxes this year because he's already spent his whole salary.
(Hat tip to the DSCC.)
Posted at 01:26 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
VA-Sen: Harris Miller (D) in Against Allen
Posted by DavidNYCAs mentioned yesterday, via Raising Kaine. From WTOP:
The year is only three days old, but already the political season is heating up in Virginia. WTOP Radio has learned Harris Miller will challenge Republican incumbent George Allen in November.Miller, an activist in Fairfax County, will formally announce his candidacy next week. He describes himself as "a shorter, and poorer version of [Governor] Mark Warner."
The 54-year-old McLean resident is currently the President of the Information Technology Association of America. He wants to see more done by the Federal government.
I'm sure Mark Warner really appreciates the mention of his wealth (a topic, like George Bush and his Connecticut roots, he assiduously avoids). Miller apparently does have money, though, and his biggest virtue appears to be his willingness to self-fund. Anyhow, I wish Miller the best, though I'd still like to see Webb jump into the race.
Posted at 10:43 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
VA-Sen: Draft James Webb
Posted by DavidNYCRight now, there are no Dem candidates running against Republican George Allen in this year's VA senate race. Even if Mark Warner were to run (and he won't), it would be a seriously uphill battle - which explains our recruitment difficulties. But there's one possible name in the mix who I'm holding out hope for: former Secretary of the Navy James Webb. And since you're nobody until somebody tries to draft you, the obligatory Draft James Webb website has sprung into existence.
As you may know, Webb was Navy Secretary under Reagan. Switching from working in a Republican administration to running as a Democratic senate candidate is a compelling storyline. It's something the media might latch on to. As much as we hate him, Zell Miller got a lot of play in 2004 because he switched sides. I also think Webb's background would play well in Virginia, with its numerous military bases (plus the Pentagon) - he's a decorated veteran and the first Annapolis grad to become SecNavy. He's also been a cogent critic of the war in Iraq.
An early poll by Rasmussen puts Allen way ahead. Raising Kaine thinks that lobbyist Harris Miller will jump into the race, but his name was not among those polled by Rasmussen. Like I say, I have no illusions about how tough this race would be. But I think Webb's willingness to speak his mind and buck his original party roots could make this one interesting.
Posted at 01:48 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (6) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Thursday, December 15, 2005
CA-50: Special Election Dates Set
Posted by DavidNYCAs I expected, Gov. Schwarzenegger decided to consolidate the special election in California's 50th congressional district - necessary because of the resignation of bribe-taking felon Duke Cunningham (R) - with the statewide primary on June 6th. This means that the first round of this election will take place on April 11th. As with CA-48, the top finisher in each party will advance to the general election, unless one person takes 50%. Our candidate is Francine Busby (though some other small-time names might get into the mix), while the GOP side is unsettled:
Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside, former South Bay congressman Brian Bilbray and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian of San Marcos, all Republicans, have said they intend to seek the 50th District seat.
I would like to know why this news hasn't yet been posted to Busby's website or blog.
Anyhow, there are also some special elections coming up in January for VA state legislature seats as well. Plus, in a few days, the recount for the VA AG race will begin - but it should be a quick, two-day affair. Good luck, Creigh Deeds!
Posted at 07:40 PM in California, Special Elections, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, November 28, 2005
VA-AG: Republican is Declared Winner, but Recount is Coming
Posted by DavidNYCTurns out the 2005 Virginia elections aren't quite over. From the Washington Post:
Virginia election officials Monday certified Republican Del. Robert F. McDonnell as the winner of the election for state attorney general with 323 more votes than Democratic Sen. R. Creigh Deeds out of 1.94 million cast.McDonnell immediately claimed the mantle of attorney general-elect, but aides to Deeds said the senator will ask the courts on Tuesday to conduct a recount in what attorneys and advocates on both sides say is the closest statewide race in Virginia history.
According to the results certified by the state board of elections, McDonnell received 970,886 votes and Deeds received 970,563 in the Nov. 8 election.
The court has to grant a recount because Virginia law permits the (apparently) defeated candidate to seek one when the margin is less than 1%. Eliot Spitzer has demonstrated how important it is to have aggressive, creative attorneys general in office nationwide - AGs who aren't afraid to take on powerful entrenched interests. Republicans are at their wimpiest when it comes to that sort of thing, of course, so it would be a tremendous victory if Deeds can pull this one out.
I am reminded of Christine Gregoire's long recount in Washington state. She started off 261 votes down, but emerged with a 133-vote margin of victory. I actually think that's a pretty sizable hurdle to overcome, even though it sounds small. But with any luck, Deeds does have a chance.
Posted at 05:30 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, November 11, 2005
VA-Gov: Where Kaine Won
Posted by DavidNYCI always love stuff like this. In case you aren't familiar with the concept, a cartogram is a map which tries to show both geographic location and numeric distribution. Maps of presidential elections, for example, always make the sea of red look enormous, but unfairly so, because so many Republican-voting states are so sparsely populated. Cartograms try to rectify that problem. Take a look here for some examples.
Anyhow, a Democratic consulting outfit called Strategic Telemetry has released a cartogram of the Virginia gubernatorial results, adjusted by county population. This gives you a good sense of where Tim Kaine drew his strength from, especially for folks knowledgeable about VA geography.
You can click on the image to bring you to a clearer full-size version (compressing it to fit on this page distorts the image a bit). Very interesting.
(Via Hotline On Call.)
Posted at 02:48 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
VA-Delegates: Dems Gain a Seat
Posted by DavidNYCOne of Virginia's state legislative bodies, the House of Delegates, was up for re-election this year. (The state Senate is not up until 2007.) The Dems wound up with a net pickup of one seat, changing the makeup from 60 Republicans, 38 Democrats and 2 independents to 58-39-3. One Republican incumbent lost to a Dem, while another (probably has) lost to an independent who was backed by Mark Warner, among others. Meanwhile, the Dems beat one GOP incumbent. The Dems made their pickup because they snagged two GOP open seats, while the Republicans only won one Democratic open seat.
Not exactly a scintillating shift of power. I suppose it allows the GOP to claim that Kilgore's loss was a one-off thing, while the Dems can say they more than held their own in a red (Bush +8) state. DH says that the House of Delegates outcome is the "real" news for those looking to glean meaning from Tuesday's elections, but with such minimal movement, it's hard to draw too many conclusions.
UPDATE: Maybe I spoke too soon. A lot of Delegates races were uncontested, so the broader playing field was quite constricted. Only 49 seats actually had a race. Moreover, this continues a trend over the past two years whereby the Dems have picked up 4 seats (3 in 2003 and one in a special election in 2004). And as Kagro points out, the GOP spent a ton of money to defend their one incumbent who lost, their prime wingnut anti-abortion standard-bearer, Dick Black.
Plus, it looks like the VA results are fast becoming part of the CW. From the first paragraph of today's NYT's story on the VA races:
Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat, won the race for governor on Tuesday night, scoring a major political victory for his mentor, Gov. Mark Warner, and sending a powerful message that President Bush's political standing has fallen in this reliably Republican state.
Posted at 01:42 AM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
VA-Gov: WaPo Calls it for Kaine
Posted by DavidNYCDemocrat Timothy M. Kaine defeated Republican Jerry W. Kilgore in today's election for governor of Virginia, riding the popularity of outgoing Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) and dissatisfaction with the Bush administration in a state that typically votes Republican in national elections.With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Kaine, Virginia's lieutenant governor, held a lead of 51 percent to 46 percent over Kilgore, the former state attorney general, according to unofficial returns from the State Board of Elections. Independent candidate H. Russell Potts Jr. was running a distant third, with 2 percent.
While the results kept the governor's office in Democratic hands, Republicans were narrowly leading races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
This is a big win. I hope we can also pull out the Lt. Gov. and AG races.
Posted at 10:02 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Gov: Election Results
Posted by Bob BrighamKaine (D):52.19, 52.14, 51.15, 50.61, 51.31, 51.53%51.53%
Kilgore (R):45.65, 45.74, 46.58, 47.13, 46.44, 46.21%46.20%
30.98%, 39.45%, 63.48%, 70%, 88.13%, 90.52%94.06% Reporting
Check out the Virginia Bloggers for more: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs.
Posted at 07:57 PM in Virginia | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
2005 Election Night Coverage
Posted by Bob BrighamThis is the last hurrah for the 2005 Swing State Project team, so we will do everything we can to provide top-notch election night coverage. DavidNYC is in Washington, DC (ready for legal deployment to Virginia if the Tim Kaine vs. Jerry Kilgore race goes into extra innings). Tim Tagaris is on the ground in Ohio, ready to follow through on all he has done to help Reform Ohio Now. And I'm in California with front row seats for Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives. In addition to the election results, check out what the local bloggers are writing in the major states. There are now two major wires services for liberal bloggers -- state by state. Keep refreshing Swing State Project, but also visit all of the bloggers on the ground by visiting the wires:
Virginia: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
New Jersey: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
Ohio: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
California: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
DISCLAIMER: I've ended up on BlogPAC's reports before, but all I'm trying to do here is direct you to the bloggers with the on the ground knowledge.
Posted at 07:24 PM in 2005 Elections, California, New Jersey, Ohio, Site News, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Gov: Machine Problems?
Posted by DavidNYCMan, you gotta hate hearing stuff like this:
News 7 has received calls from several voters in at least four different precincts who say their votes for Tim Kaine were not recorded or took several attempts to go through.They contend the electronic touch screens repeatedly indicated they were voting for Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore instead of registering their intended vote for his Democratic opponent Tim Kaine.
Roanoke Co. Registrar Judy Stokes says she doesn't want to say the problem is operator error on the part of the voters, but she points out the touch screens are sensitive. She says anyone who is having difficulty voting should ask one of the poll workers for assistance.
I really hope it is voter error - and only a handful of voters at that. If you fuck up your vote on one of those clunking dinosaur NYC voting machines, you are totally out of luck unless you go get an order from a judge. (Yeah, right.) I can't imagine you get much sympathy if you mess up your vote elsewhere. But if the machines are fouling up, then it's a lot easier to blame voters, no?
(Via Taegan Goddard.)
Posted at 04:35 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Gov: Recount Watch
Posted by DavidNYCHotline tells us to be on the alert for a possible recount in Virginia. This is what VA law - which is mercifully clear - says about recounts:
When there is between any candidate apparently nominated or elected and any candidate apparently defeated a difference of not more than one percent of the total vote cast for the two such candidates as determined by the State Board or the electoral board, the defeated candidate may appeal from the determination of the State Board or the electoral board for a recount of the vote as set forth in this article. (Emphasis added.)
Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-800.B (2005). The wording here is interesting, though. It talks about the total vote cast between two candidates - the putative winner and the aggrieved challenger. It does NOT look at the entire vote cast in the election. This adds a wrinkle because of Russell Potts.
Let's say the final tally is 48.5 Kaine, 47.5 Kilgore, 4 to Potts and other candidates. The final margin is 1%, so that means Kilgore can ask for a recount, right? Not so fast. As between Kaine and Kilgore, the margin is actually 50.52 to 49.48. Ouch! Kilgore misses a chance at a recount by four-hundredths of a percent. Granted, this is a pretty unlikely scenario, and this twist is only likely to come into play if you have a serious third-party challenger pulling in double digits.
I don't think it'll come to a recount anyhow - at least, I sure as hell hope it doesn't. But if it does, I'm sure I'll wind up heading over the river into VA with a whole passel of other law students and lawyers.
Posted at 04:13 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, November 07, 2005
VA-Gov: SUSA Late Day Update Knocks Kaine Back to +5
Posted by DavidNYCThis is a new one by me. Earlier today, SUSA released a new poll showing Tim Kaine up 9. Seemed like quite an outlier, but there it was. (Roanoke did show him +8 a few days ago, so it wasn't completely nuts.) Anyhow, check this out (reformatted for clarity):
UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE: Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest.This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7.
• When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points.
• When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet.
• When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data.
For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
So, a little extra polling after you're done with your polling? I dunno - polling during the afternoon seems inherently suspect. Aren't many, if not most, adults at work at that point?Anyhow, I'm guessing that the whole "aberrant Monday data" stuff means that Kilgore had a rockin' day. So yeah, maybe it was aberrant, or maybe this race is just gonna be super-tight - like we've been expecting all along.
Posted at 09:48 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Gov: Republican Governor's Association Misleads for Jerry Kilgore
Posted by Bob BrighamUPDATE (David): An MP3 of the call is available here. (Thanks for hosting it, Markos.) The sound quality isn't exactly great, so make sure you check out the transcript while you listen.
UPDATE (David): Folks, do NOT contact VPAP (the site we link to which has the Honest Leadership/RGA information). VPAP is just a campaign info database, like Tray.com or OpenSecrets.org. They have nothing to do with this.
In the final days of the Virginia gubernatorial campaign, the Republican Governor's Association is resorting to disgusting tactics in their support of Jerry Kilgore, even going so far as use robo-calls pretending to come from Tim Kaine.
These Republican Governors' Association prerecorded telephone calls are misleading and violate Federal law intended to prevent such political dirty tricks. Consider that "The Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC" is not just a front group, it is the Republican Governors Association's Virginia political committee. The "Honest" Leadership for Virginia PAC received just three contributions totaling $1,860,000 in 2005 – all from one donor, the Republican Governors Association.
RGA's Pre-Recorded Telephone call misleads recipients by implying that it is sponsored by Tim Kaine and fails to disclose the actual entity paying for the call – the Republican Governors Association. Using Tim Kaine's voice implies that he sponsored the call. Using a misleading name, like Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC, for their Virginia political committee, the RGA further misleads recipients that this entity is something other than what it is – an arm of the RGA. In fact, just check the contact info, the Treasurer's email ends in @rga.org.
Here is a transcript of the ad:
[Voice of Tim Kaine] I am running for Governor and I am not afraid to tell you where I stand.I am conservative on issues of personal responsibility. As a former Christian missionary, faith is central to my life. I oppose gay marriage. I support restrictions on abortion: No public funding and parental consent. And I've worked to pass a state law banning partial birth abortion.
Paid for and authorized by Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC.
Registration number 05-034.
Now I'm no big city lawyer, but a former Hill staffer sent me an email that lays out a convincing case against the RGA:
Federal law requires disclosure of the entity that is responsible for initiating a pre-recorded telephone call to disclose its true identify at the beginning of the message. 47 CFR Sec. 64.1200(b)(1).• The Federal regulation states: "All artificial or prerecorded telephone messages shall:
(1) At the beginning of the message, state clearly the identity of the business, individual, or other entity that is responsible for the call. 47 CFR Sec. 64.1200(b)(1).
• Neither the RGA, nor its shadow organization, Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC, is identified at the beginning of the prerecorded message.
• RGA violated Federal Communication Commission regulations by failing to identify the entity responsible for initiating the prerecorded message.
4. Federal law requires the entity making prerecorded telephone calls to provide a telephone number in the message. 47 CFR Sec. 64.1200(b)(2).
• The FCC regulation states: "All artificial or prerecorded telephone messages shall:
(2) During or after the message, state clearly the telephone number (other than that of the autodialer or prerecorded message player that placed the call) of such business, other entity, or individual. The telephone number provided may not be a 900 number or any other number for which charges exceed local or long distance transmission charges. For telemarketing messages to residential telephone subscribers, such telephone number must permit any individual to make a don-not-call request during regular business hours for the duration of the telemarketing campaign. 47 CFR Sec. 64.1200(b)(2).
• No telephone number is provided in the RGA's prerecorded message for the RGA or its shadow organization, Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC.
• RGA violated Federal Communication Commission regulations by failing to clearly state telephone number during or after the prerecorded message.
Lies and distortion, the Kilgore campaign is clearly desperate.
Posted at 04:45 PM in 2005 Elections, Culture of Corruption, Republicans, Scandals, Virginia | Comments (13) | TrackBack (2) | Technorati
VA-Gov: SUSA Poll Due Out Today
Posted by DavidNYCSurvey USA, in conjunction with News Channel 10 out of Roanoke, will be releasing a new poll on the VA gubernatorial race today. From the article, it looks like it won't get released until the evening (late afternoon?) news at 5pm today. This will probably be the last poll on the race, so it will get some scrutiny. (Nothing like having the last word, is there?)
SUSA's last poll a few weeks ago showed Kaine up two. As I noted below, seven of ten recent polls show Kaine up. So keep your eye on the SUSA trendlines.
UPDATE: Poll came out earlier than expected. And damn, that's some freakin' mo! 52-43 for Kaine - +9, or +7 ahead of the last SUSA poll. I doubt Kaine will win by that much, but I think I could hear the sounds of multiple jaws dropping at Camp Kilgore all the way here in DC.
(Thanks to reader Raf for alerting me that the poll was available.)
Posted at 02:15 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, November 06, 2005
VA-Gov: Dirty Tricks Are a Sign of Desperation
Posted by DavidNYCSeven of ten polls taken since October have put Tim Kaine up in the VA gov race. One of them put Kaine up 8 points - surely wrong - but must have given the Kilgore people fits anyhow. So with defeat looming, the Kilgore camp has put forth this shit:
Yep, you heard me right - this is from the Kilgore camp. To me, the biggest give-away is the fact that even when pretending to be Dems, Republicans still use the intentionally harsher-sounding word "Democrat" as an adjective instead of the proper form "Democratic."
(Inside is some crap about how "true progressives" should really be voting for independent candidate Russell Potts. Weak.)
Anyhow, this wasn't even some hack job by some anonymous dirty-tricks group from whom the campaign could distance itself. This came straight from the campaign itself:
Now Kilgore can waste the last days of the campaign answering questions about this flyer. Already the story is surfacing in the traditional media. Just like the despicable Hitler ads, this will backfire on Jerry Kilgore. Desperation moves have a way of doing that.
(Via mlk's diary.)
Posted at 02:18 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, October 30, 2005
VA-Gov: Big Mo' for Kaine in WaPo Poll
Posted by DavidNYCI always like to wake up to news like this on a Sunday morning (or afternoon, as the case may be). The Washington Post has a new poll out on the VA Gov race, and it's good news for Tim Kaine (likely voters, early Sept. in parens):
Kaine: 47 (44)
Kilgore: 44 (51)
Potts: 4 (4)
Undecided: 5 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)
Now, on one hand, it's been a long time since the WaPo has polled this race (why so lazy, guys?). But on the other hand, this poll has a big sample size and in fact has an MoE a full point lower than the last poll. And I don't think it's an outlier, either, because the race has undoubtedly tightened a lot and a bunch of recent polls have been giving Kaine small leads of late.
The bottom line is that the WaPo shows Kilgore nose-diving a full 10 points in some six weeks. The Kilgore campaign surely must be suffering from some agita right now. A couple points, though. First is that the WaPo claims that Kilgore's obscene death penalty ads backfired on him - 65% of those surveyed said they thought the ads were unfair. However, it's impossible to know how much of an effect those ads had, because the WaPo didn't ask a simple question: "Did these ads makes you more or less likely to vote for Jerry Kilgore." I'd like to believe the ad campaign backfired, but then again, there are people who, when polled, say that litterbugs should get the death penalty. How you feel about something isn't as important as how important that thing is to you.
The other observation (not mine) is more unsettling. Unnamed Dems in VA (grr, could you really not go on record about this?) are saying that Kaine has to be up at least 5 in the polls by election day in order to win. They point out that Mark Warner was up by 10 points in many polls right before he was elected in 2001, but only won by 5. I decided to check this claim out, and it's only sorta true. Here are all the independent polls I could find in the last month of the race:
| 11/1 | Times-Dispatch | +13 |
| 10/30 | Mason-Dixon | +6 |
| 10/30 | Roanoke | +9 |
| 10/25 | WaPo | +10 |
| 10/17 | Mason-Dixon | +3 |
I pulled this data together from the subscriber's section of Polling Report and the National Journal, so it should be pretty comprehensive. Anyhow, there are two conclusions you can draw from this. One is that Mark Warner was hitting above his weight and somehow crashed down from 5 to 8 points by election day. The other is that Mason-Dixon was a lot more accurate than the other pollsters.
Hard to know which view is right. In 1997, Republican Jim Gilmore beat Democrat Don Beyer by a hefty 13 points. Mason-Dixon's last poll that year showed Gilmore with a nine-point lead, so they were about 50% off the final tally. However, they did seem to sense a huge late Gilmore surge - their prior poll had him at +7, and the poll before that (taken at the beginning of October) showed the race tied. All of M-D's earlier polls also showed a one-or-two point gap. (This info is all taken from the National Journal.)
On the flip-side, two of the pollsters who got the 2001 race so wrong were much more accurate in 1997. Roanoke had Gilmore at +12, as did the Times-Dispatch. The WaPo only had Gilmore at +7, which makes you wonder: If they were so off for two VA Gov races in a row, maybe we shouldn't be paying them too much attention this time around, either. (The key difference this year is that there are no outliers at all.)
So where does this leave us? We can say that Mason-Dixon was pretty much spot-on in 2001 and got things sorta-right in 1997. We can say that the Times-Dispatch and Roanoke College were good in 1997 but had an off-year in 2001. And the Wapo - well, we've already complained about them. So whom to believe?
If you were paying attention to M-D last time around, then this CW that Kaine needs a five-point buffer is bunk. M-D showed Warner up 6, he won by 5 - pretty good. But if you think M-D just got lucky, and you think Warner truly did collapse from his Roanoke/Times-Dispatch/WaPo highs, then here's one very, very salient factor for you:
Bush currently has a 41-56 approval rating in Virginia. I don't have state approval ratings for George Bush in 2001, but his nationwide approval had hit 90% right after 9/11. If any voters were going into their polling places undecided that year, Bush's utterly untarnished halo would probably have been the deciding factor.
This year, of course, no dice. Bush may have dragged Warner down 5 points last time, but there's no way he's doing the same to Kaine this time. If anything, he'll drag Kilgore down a bit. So I'm cautiously optimistic.
(Thanks to reader UVA08.)
Posted at 02:37 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 27, 2005
VA-Gov: Tim Kaine Ad Controversy
Posted by Bob BrighamVirginia gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine has found himself at the center of a scandal for bowing to right-wing racists and cancelling ads on an African American blog:
So now the Kaine campaign is in the silly position of responding to a racist while withdrawing support from an African-American. Which could have been avoided if they had talked before running scared. [...]But what really and truly bothers me is not the ad pull. You play football, you wake up sore. But the responsiveness to the opposition.
The Kaine campaign has never been responsible for the content on this site. They just buy space. They have probably disagreed with my stands. But they respond to people who will not vote for them, want them to lose and uses anything to pressure them.
And in the end, hurts them more than if they blew it off. The campaign didn't need me to go after them, but I am, because they are cowards. [...]
Cowardice should not be rewarded.
Tim Kaine is running a cowardly campaign, from the get-go he has been running scared, trying to offend as few people as possible.
But this scandal highlights a larger misconception about blogs, blogads, and netroots support.
It is important for people to realize that advertising on a blog doesn't mean the advertiser endorses the content of the site, all it means is that a decision has been made that the advertiser is interested in individuals who may read a particular blog.
Likewise, a blog running an ad doesn't mean that the blogger(s) endorse the product being advertised.
This shouldn't be a hard concept to grasp.
For example, Tim Kaine is advertising on the Swing State Project right now, yet here I am calling him a coward. Earlier in the year, Tim Tagaris didn't hold back his thoughts on Bob Casey, Jr. when Casey advertised here. In fact, if memory serves me right, both Tim and I wrote some hard hitting posts while the ad was running.
Look at the other two ads running. One is for Steve Westly, who is running against Phil Angelides in California's Democratic gubernatorial primary. As the lone SSP writer who votes in California, I'll still be voting for Angelides and plan on devoting a good deal of posts next year to why Angelides inspires me with his campaign. As for the final ad, you all know it is a long story but we still approved the ad and it hasn't changed any of our thoughts on the issue.
When you see an ad in a newspaper, you don't assume that the editorial board supports the advertiser so don't make the same mistake with blogs. Likewise, you don't assume that advertisers support the view of the editorial page.
Politicians who think they can buy support by running ads are just as misguided as politicians who pull ads for what the blog posts.
UPDATE: (Bob) Now this is on the front page of Daily Kos. Kaine is going to lose a great deal of support and volunteers because of this fuckup. Even more, now he won't have blogosphere support for rapid response during the home stretch of the campaign. Tim Kaine's cowardice may have just cost him the election.
Posted at 01:56 PM in 2005 Elections, Netroots, Scandals, Virginia | Comments (10) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
VA-Gov: Kilgore Runs Away From Bush
Posted by DavidNYCAh, this is fun:
Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry W. Kilgore has decided not to attend President Bush's appearance in Norfolk on Friday, saying it is not a campaign-related event and that he has other plans 11 days before the election....
The decision highlights some concerns among Virginia Republicans, who have watched nervously in recent weeks as Bush's popularity has waned and as scandals involving presidential aides and congressional leaders have dominated news coverage. Although it is unclear how the national political environment affects voters choosing who should lead their state, even small shifts are important in races that are as close as the Virginia contest.
That Diageo/Hotline poll (PDF) from ten days ago gave Bush just a 49-49 job approval rating in the state. And SUSA's poll from the same time was loads worse: 41-56. No matter whom you believe, Bush ain't popular in VA. Keep on runnin', Jerry.
Posted at 12:23 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
VA-Gov: No Surprises in New Hotline Poll
Posted by DavidNYCHotline & Diageo have a new poll out on VA-Gov today, and it's pretty much as you'd expect (likely voters, no trendlines):
Kaine: 41
Kilgore: 40
Potts: 6
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Among RVs, Kaine leads 40-38. With "extremely" likely voters (a formulation I haven't seen before), Kilgore leads by 42-41.
Actually, I shouldn't speak so quickly - this poll is a bit different from others. The number of undecideds seems to be quite high. Even with the ELVs, that number is still 13% - and we're just three weeks away from election day. I don't necessarily disbelieve that figure. I think polling firms often push leaners or word questions so as to minimize "undecided" answers - it makes for "cleaner" data, but I think it comes at the expense of accuracy. Without an incumbent in this race, it's hard to say who might ultimately benefit from these undecideds, but with momentum clearly in Kaine's favor, things might tilt his way.
One detail I liked seeing: Kaine has much stronger partisan support than Kilgore. Kaine is at 86-5 among Dems, while Kilgore is just 70-13 among Republicans. Potts, incidentally, appears to be drawing almost equally from both major-party candidates - 4% of GOPers and 3% of Dems back him. But of course, it may come down to just that one percentage point.
P.S. I thought Diageo was a drinks company. What gives?
Posted at 08:56 PM in 2005 Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) |