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Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Junkie Heaven

Posted by DavidNYC

Via Taegan Goddard's indispensible Political Wire, we have polls for thirty - count `em, thirty - competitive House races from RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. Just enjoy:

District Incumbent Party Party % Challenging Party Party % Margin
AZ-08* Primary 9/12/06 (R) 46 Primary 9/12/06 (D) 50 D+4
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 47 Angie Paccione (D) 41 R+6
CO-07* Rick O’Donnell (R) 46 Ed Perlmutter (D) 48 D+2
CT-02 Rob Simmons (R) 45 Joe Courtney (D) 51 D+6
CT-04 Christopher Shays (R) 49 Diane Farrell (D) 42 R+7
FL-13* Primary 9/05/06 (R) 56 Primary 9/05/06 (D) 38 R+18
FL-22 Clay Shaw (R) 52 Ron Klein (D) 44 R+8
IA-01* Mike Whalen (R) 41 Bruce Braley (D) 54 D+13
IA-03 Leonard Boswell (D) 54 Jeff Lamberti (R) 43 D+11
IL-06* Peter Roskam (R) 46 Tammy Duckworth (D) 47 D+1
IL-08 Melissa Bean (D) 48 David McSweeney (R) 45 D+3
IN-02 Chris Chocola (R) N/A Joe Donnelly (D) N/A Polling under way
IN-08 John Hostettler (R) N/A Brad Ellsworth (D) N/A Polling under way
IN-09 Mike Sodrel (R) N/A Baron Hill (D) N/A Polling under way
KY-04 Geoff Davis (R) 49 Ken Lucas (D) 46 R+3
MN-06* Primary 9/12/06 (R) 53 Primary 9/12/06 (D) 42 R+11
NC-11 Charles Taylor (R) 47 Heath Shuler (D) 50 D+3
NM-01 Heather Wilson (R) 48 Patricia Madrid (D) 45 R+3
NV-03 Jon Porter (R) 51 Tessa Hafen (D) 43 R+8
NY-24* Primary 9/12/06 (R) 41 Primary 9/12/06 (D) 49 D+8
OH-06* Charlie Wilson (D) 56 Chuck Blasdel (R) 40 D+16
OH-18* Primary 9/14/06 (R) 43 Zack Space (D) 47 D+4
PA-06 Jim Gerlach (R) 45 Lois Murphy (D) 50 D+5
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 53 Patrick Murphy (D) 45 R+8
PA-10 Don Sherwood (R) 43 Chris Carney (D) 50 D +7
VA-02 Thelma Drake (R) 43 Phil Kellam (D) 51 D+8
VT-AL* Peter Welch (D) 54 Primary 9/12/06 (R) 40 D+14
WA-08 Dave Reichert (R) 46 Darcy Burner (D) 49 D+3
WI-08* Primary 9/12/06 (R) 44 Primary 9/12/06 (D) 48 D+4
WV-01 Alan Mollohan (D) 52 Chris Wakim (R) 42 D+10

An asterisk indicates an open seat. All polls have a margin of error of ±3.1%. Bowers has more here and here.

Posted at 03:17 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Polls | Technorati

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Pretty strong numbers overall, but I'm surprised to see Chris Shays polling better than he did in 2004 considered many pundits point to him as one of the most endangered Republicans. Clay Shaw's eight-point advantage in Florida is troubling, as is Mike Fitzpatrick's eight-point advantage in PA-08. A blogger who lives in the district has insisted from the beginning that Fitzpatrick would win re-election. I've scoffed at the premise, but thus far it looks like the blogger is right. Fitzpatrick's advantage as a one-term incumbent in this blue district is hard to understand.

On the other hand, how about those numbers for Chris Carney...and Bruce Braley...and Tammy Duckworth....and Phil Kellam....and Darcy Burner. Even a generic preference for a Dem in WI-08, which is hardly a Dem-friendly district. I'd be happy if these polls came to fruition in November.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On DailyKos, Adam B pointed out in the comments that the registration sampling for the Fitzpatrick/Murphy poll is tilts more Republican than it should be.


Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm kind of shocked to see Zack Space up in OH-18 agaisnt a generic Republican. Isn't that supposed to be a Rep district that is only competative becasue of Ney?

In general, great news all around.

Posted by: dantheman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 05:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

To elaborate on James L.'s point many of the registration samplings are suprisingly skewed. In my mind these should be taken with a very big grain of salt, just like the zogby polls.

Posted by: descartes [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wisconsin 8th District is exactly the type of district that the Democrats should win if 2006 is a national election fought over national issues. If the Dems retake the House it is districts like WI-8 that will give them their victory margin. Probable GOP nominee is Speaker of the Assembly John GARD who is the Tom DeLAY of Wisconsin politics. There should be scant cross over appeal for the GOP in 2006 in the WI-8th district.

The Dems will choose their nominee next Tuesday from among 3 strong contenders: self funding millionarie Dr. Steve KAGEN of Appleton, Brown Co. executive Nancy NUSSBAUM who ran for the seat as a Republican back in (I think it was 1994 or 1998 without looking it up)and has the backing of Emily's List, and Rhodes scholar Jamie WALL who David OBEY is campaigning aggressively for.

This district should be considered lean GOP normally, but in years when elections become nationalized and the Dems are rolling the seat can and has flipped to the Dems and 2006 appears to be such a year.

If the national Dems do not fall in aggressively behind whomever wins the Dem primary in the Wis 8th CD they are fools who deserve to remain in the minority forever.

Posted by: walja [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thrilled to see Kellam besting Drake in the military based VA-02 51% to 43%. The polling firm used 38% Gop, 36% Indy & 26% dem to come up with this result. Unfortunetly the Virginia Bosrd of Elections does not give party registration breakdown. I'd say the polling firm erred on the conservative side in their sampling, which makes this one look all the more better.
Glad to see Il-06 and the Iowa races with margins like this. Up until now most major polling in CD races has had me disheartened due to less than fantastic showings by our candidates, these give some comfort. Biggest surprise I see is Clay Shaw-R doing as well as that in FL-22, though I see the sampling was only 32% Dem.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2006 08:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This kind of scares me for the NM race -- Wilson is very, very close to 50% ... let's hope that Madrid ramps it up now that Labor Day has passed and chip away some of that support for Wilson.

Posted by: LP [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2006 02:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am upset about the PA-08 race as well. I actually live in Bucks County, so I get to vote for Murphy, and I was very disappointed to see him losing by 8 points. But I do think that we can make that difference up. There is still 2 months to go, and no one really pays attention until at least October. We can't give up, we just need to try harder. Let's make it happen!

Here's Murphy's website, if anyone's interested:


Posted by: Bloodman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2006 10:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, if you look at the races we are NOT winning above, NM is in the best shape.

Heather Wilson (R) 48
Patricia Madrid (D) 45

The incumbent is below 50 and we are only 3 points down, within the margin of error. No other race fits those criteria except David in KY.

Geoff Davis (R) 49
Ken Lucas (D) 46

Another race that was not polled here, but which falls into the same category is Hayes v. Kissell (NC-08).

Posted by: Robert P [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2006 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Go Mike Arcuri, up 8 points in NY-24 - we're going to win this one!

Posted by: Steve [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 7, 2006 05:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The latest RASMUSSEN poll on the Tennessee Senate race has come out and Tennessee is now officially in play. The past three poll have shown GOP nominee CORKERs lead over FORD shrinking from a 12 point lead, to a 6 point lead, to his current one point lead. Neither candidate is at the 50% mark yet either.

FORD finally has his issue to hammer CORKER with, competence. CORKER deeply cut funds for the 911 emergency responder system when he was mayor and it was recently revealed that over 2000 calls to 911 were not acted on as a result. CORKER was made aware of the problem and still did nothing as Mayor.

FORD can use the competence issue against CORKER for the remainder of this race and hopefully the anticipated Democrat tide nationally will be strong enough in Tennessee to give FORD that last bit of support he will need to put him over the top.

This race is doable and the Democrats have stop being intimidated in Southern contests. If you think you can never win because you haven't won, you will be trapped in an self fullfilling prophesy of perpetual defeat. Which is exactly what the GOP wants Democrats to believe.

The times they are a changing.

Posted by: walja [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 8, 2006 03:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks walja; while it is unofficial policy at SwingStateProject not to post Rasmussen polling results, we discussed the 911 scandal in detail here. I hope you have the opportunity to explore more posts than just this one.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 8, 2006 03:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As noted above, the numbers for PA-08 are very much off. Murphy is actually about two points behind right now. See http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/9/6/15651/78951/169#c169 for more details.

Posted by: bschak [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2006 09:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment