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Monday, November 14, 2005

Superribbie's House Race Roundup

Posted by DavidNYC

Man, how did I miss this? Superribbie has two updates to his seminal list of competitive house races. Vulnerable Republican-held seats are listed here, Dem-held seats are listed here. Unlike last time, when he just posted a straight list, Super actually provides some color commentary on every single race on the list. I consider this my first go-to resource when evaluating house races. If you are at all interested in the topic (and I'm sure you are), check it out.

Posted at 03:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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I keep on seeing stuff on Dkos about how great Steve Filson is for CA-11. It makes me want to retch.

Please, don't believe the hype.

The netroots needs to understand that Filson has no indigenous support within the district at this time. He's a rich guy (but not rich enough to self-fund a race) with powerful friends who have gotten him face time with Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC. He has not proven in any way that he can win the district or challenge Pombo. He certainly has not done anything that ought to get him support from the netroots.

If people look at the district and think he can win, that's one thing. But if people simply look at his fundraising numbers as a proxy for looking at the district, that's another thing.

I know literally dozens of activists who are going to work to oust Pombo in 2006. And only maybe one or two of them has said anything substantively positive about Filson. Even people who do not like McNerney do not necessarily find Filson attractive. We'll get behind Filson if he wins the primary. But the netroots has to understand that McNerney has significant support from the old Dean, Kucinich and Clark activists. Filson has the support of some powerful people in DC. That's it.

The real dynamic in the race, something that has gone largely unnoticed in the blogosphere, is the potential for Margee Ensign to enter the race. I've heard more grassroots support for her (and she hasn't even entered the race yet) than Filson.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Matt - you should e-mail your thoughts to Superribbie.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 05:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In the 2004 congressional races, the closest call in California was in the 26th district, a moderate L.A. suburban district not unlike the Fairfax County, VA and Bergen County, NJ districts that just turned against Republican gubernatorial candidates. Completely unknown, under-financed, out-of-the-closet lesbian Democrat Cynthia Matthews held powerful incumbant (in-the-closet) David Dreier to a pathetic 53.7%, unheard of for a California incumbent of either party. This is a super-competitive district that is being completely ignored by the DCCC (and now by Superribbie).

Posted by: DownWithTyranny [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Down with Tyranny, I'm with you. I can't believe Dreier's district wasn't listed, at least in comparison to some of the GOP slam dunks that did make the list. I think Dreier could easily meet his Waterloo in a Dem tidal wave. I also can't believe LA-07 wasn't listed considered long-time incumbent Chris John could mount a serious challenge to one-term incumbent Charles Boustany in bayou country.

Still, an interesting set of lists. While most probably won't end up being competitive, at this point it's nice to have a list of 58 potentially vulnerable GOP-held seats...if only to serve as an ego boost.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Guys, I think we should give Superribbie the benefit of the doubt, especially when he's not on this thread to defend his decisions. He did include Dreier's district on his first list (albeit pretty far down). Maybe he simply forgot about him - after all, there are a LOT of house races to worry about. Or maybe he has good reasons for not listing that seat.

Either way, I'd suggest posting a comment in super's original thread or sending him an e-mail. Maybe Dreier will show up on the next installment.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 06:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Also, in fairness, Superribbie did say he wasn't including any races which didn't yet have challengers (not an unreasonable decision, in my opinion). Russ Warner only (officially) declared three days ago, so if Super missed that announcement, I think he can be forgiven.

Of course, if there are other candidates running that I'm not aware of, then I retract this comment. :)

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, I made several comments in Superribbie's thread today. THere's no question the guy knows his stuff, but I did find the two aforementioned omissions to be a little strange considering the completely unwinnable WI-08 made the list. Just a small grievance though. I've been taking notes for a good half hour of some of the races he cited to keep an eye on.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2005 07:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment