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Thursday, July 07, 2005

OH-Sen: New Poll Shows DeWine in Trouble

Posted by Bob Brigham

Regular Swing State Project readers know that I go by the old rule of thumb when it comes to senators seeking re-election: if the re-elect number is under 40, then the incumbent is in trouble. Ohio Senator Mike DeWine's re-elect stands at 31%, which means his support is zip to nil and nil is leaning towards undecided.

This new poll is very bad news considering yesterday's launch of Congressman Sherrod Brown's state-wide effort.

Kos says:

Bottom line is that DeWine is clearly vulnerable. And if Brown enters the race, it may suddenly catapult to a top tier race. The Coingate scandal in Ohio won't do DeWine or the rest of the state's Republicans any favors, nor will the economy or the war.
If Brown ever had any thought of a promotion to the Senate, now seems to be the perfect time to do so.

Indeed. Kos also has the results (Feldman Group (D) for the DSCC. 6/27. 1,209 respondents):
If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike DeWine, for whom would you vote?
Mike DeWine (R) 42
Sharrod Brown (D) 36

Overall, do you think Mike DeWine deserves reelection as United States Senator, or do you think that someone else should be given a chance?  
Deserves Reelection 31
Someone Else 42

Now, generally speaking, do you think things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 32
Wrong Direction 57

Not only is DeWine weak, but Brown's name ID gives him room to grow:

DeWine has a 94 percent name ID, while Brown is at 77 percent.
These numbers don't bode well for DeWine, but Brown is about the only candidate left that can make a run for it. Will he run? No one knows. […]

This poll indicates that maybe he is flirting with it. Or at the very least, that the DSCC is trying to entice him into the race. More proof that he might take the plunge this time -- the recent launch (yesterday?) of the new statewide political site Grow Ohio.org where he promises to help rebuild the Ohio Democratic Party from the "ground up".
Someone interested in running for reelection in his own congressional district wouldn't exactly be launching this sort of site, would he?

Probably not.

Here's to Congressman Sherrod Brown running for U.S. Senate in 2006 – he's a great lawmaker and would make Ohio proud.

Posted at 01:50 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Technorati