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Monday, November 07, 2005

OH-Sen: Brown +4 on Dewine, Hackett -2 - But It's a Weird One

Posted by DavidNYC

Finally, a real (ie, non-Zogby FunTyme) poll on the Ohio senate race. Sort of. This is part of the same Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll, alleged by some to be "eerily accurate," on the Reform Ohio Now ballot measures. Well, I can tell you one thing for sure: No poll with undecideds well into the 30s is accurate about jack. Anyhow, the findings (registered voters, no trendlines):

Brown: 35

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Sigh. Just when I hoped we might be getting good data, we get this whack-ass nuttiness. Oh, also, Dem respondents to this poll (which is self-selecting) were 10% greater in number than Republicans. This may well be a sign of the times, or it could just be a sign of ballot-box stuffing. Either way, these numbers are too noisy to mean much, except perhaps one thing: For a well-known incumbent like DeWine to be facing so many undecideds and to be unable to break 32% is pretty freakin' pathetic.

(Via the DSCC.)

Posted at 12:20 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Ohio | Technorati

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This doesn't say much, but it does say two things. 1) That DeWine is widely disliked and very beatable. 2) That Hackett gettint 31% is truly amazing! He has come from no where, and never held office and people up in the Democratic North haven't even heard of him yet. Once his recs go up, I'm sure the undecideds will swing widely for him.

Posted by: OH-09Dem [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congratulations to whomever had 2.5-3 hours in the "How long before a Hackett supporter enthusiastically posts on how great this poll looks for Hackett" pool! Your prize is in the mail.

Wasn't there a recent dust-up over Brown and Hackett's relative name recognition in the state? I can't recall whether the question was ever resolved. Brown's obviously been in office for a while, but Hackett had a good run of national press earlier in the year. Anyone seen recent name recognition numbers?

Posted by: Cuchulainn [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anyone- either Brown or Hacket trying to use these numbers to justify some point they think they can make about prior arguments - well, let's just say we see what we want to see. And this really is for both Brown and Hacket people, and not one or the other.

Posted by: bruhrabbit [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 05:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Listen, I agree here. This poll doesn't show much, as I believe I prefaced the last post. Before anyone goes all ballistic, I only meant that nobody outside of OH-02 knows who Hackett is. For those of you not from Ohio, I'm sure this will come as a surprise--but it is true. So, given the Dispatch numbers (whatever they're worth) is a really great thing, considering he is unknown, especially in the heavily Democratic North. Secondly, while the Zogby Interactive may be as credible(less) as the Dispatch, it did show Hackett up 45-32. Two unreliable polls doesn't mean much, but they're both saying the same thing.

Posted by: OH-09Dem [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2005 01:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment