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Thursday, August 17, 2006

CT-Sen: Q-Poll Shows Lieberman Up Twelve

Posted by DavidNYC

Quinnipiac's latest (likely voters w/leaners, no trendlines):

Lamont (D): 41
Lieberman (I): 53
Schlesinger (R): 4
(MoE: ±3%)

Quite clearly, Lieberman is the GOP candidate at this point - at least, from the perspective of Republican voters. Even the pollster agrees:

"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

But note this: Among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), Lieberman's lead is similar (49-38). Yet just a month ago, it was 51-27. That's some serious shrinkage. The good news for Lamont: 32% of respondents still hadn't heard of him at the time the survey was conduct, so he has more room to grow.

The bad news: His favorable-unfavorable rating stands at 23-27. You never like seeing a challenger in negative territory. Meanwhile, Joe's is 43-28. But that's actually not especially good news for Lieberman: At the start of the year, he was at 53-14 - he's been sliding downward ever since. The question is, does he have much further to go? Or will CT Republicans and right-leaning indies prop him up from this point forward? If the latter (and I worry that might be the case), then Lamont has to be able to up his favorables in order to win - again - this fall.

Posted at 02:13 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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I find myself wondering if Schlesinger will end up being the spoiler in this race - if Lamont keeps up the intensity and the momentum, and keeps drawing Dem and left-leaning indy support from Lieberman as his name-rec rises, will Schlesinger draw enough GOP votes from Lieberman to give Lamont the win? Will 46-48% be enough for Lamont to pull it off?

Posted by: JelloAbode [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 17, 2006 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looking at this Quinni poll, Lamont's incredibly poor performance with indies jumps right out, doesn't it?

Considering the unusually high percentage of the CT electorate registered as indies, these numbers are toxic. Factoring in Lamont's high negatives and the near-impossibility of his pulling off a redefinition more alluring to centrist voters, the party might be wise not to over invest in trying to beat Lieberman.

Harold Ford is trailing Corker badly in Tenn. Dewine is bouncing back in Ohio, although as long as Taft draws breath we might still steal that one. The Senate is going to be hard enough without plowing resources into a fight between a liberal Dem and a very liberal Dem.

It may be annoying that Joe will not go. But he does hold the trump card; he can win the general. And primary wins do not elect; generals do.

Besides, we have to consider what Lieberman does if we end up 50/50 in the Senate. If we drive him into voting for the GOP in organizing, we throw away the committee chairs.

But you do have a point about Schlesinger. If he gets some covert funding and pounds away from the far right, especially on immigration and Joe's very solid progessive credentials, maybe he could hold enough GOP for Lamont to sneak in there.

But Lamont is in really dire trouble with the indies. And it will be very difficult for him to portray himself as other than a creature of the left.

The only winning strategy I see for Lamont is betraying the folks who got him through the primary by veering hard to the center. And then he looks like an opportunist who played the anti-war and netroots for suckers.

Posted by: pinhickdrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 20, 2006 11:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment