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Thursday, August 03, 2006

CT-Sen: Lamont Widens Lead in New Q-Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Quinnipiac's newest poll (likely voters, July 20 in parens):

Lamont: 54 (51)
Lieberman: 41 (47)
Undecided: 5 (2)
(MoE: ±3.3%)

You can feel the Nedmentum, but what really matters is whether Quinnipiac's likely primary voter model is up to snuff. As people have often noted, predicting turnout in a weird mid-summer primary is tough business. Remember all those polls which showed Busby leading in CA-50, which was a similarly unusual election?

I've heard a rumor that Quinnipiac might try to squeeze in yet one more poll between now and election day, but that would involve weekend polling, which as you may know is considered less reliable than weekday polling. I'm also not sure it would even add much to our understanding at this point.

The bottom line is that it would be a mistake for Lamont or any of his supporters to act like this thing is already won. A lot can happen in five days. (Again, remember Busby's "you don't need papers to vote" gaffe?) Quinnipiac could be wrong. Joe could find a way to turn it around. What's more, the bigger the victory, the greater the pressure there will be on Lieberman to drop his indie bid. If he loses 51-49, he can make a good whiner's case. But if he gets thumped, then only the worst bitter-enders will continue to support him.

So let's win, and win big.

P.S. If you are in the area, please consider heading up to CT for a day to help out. Everything you need is here.

Posted at 11:06 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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This is certainly good news. I do have concerns that Lieberepublican's Survey/USA rating is at 54% approve to 41% disapprove (7/25). However, Bush's disapprove rating at 66% to 31% approve is heartening (7/18). Of course Joe's polling sample goes beyond likely Dem primary voters, so that may be the silver lining (its at 50% approve to 46% disapprove among Dem party affiliation respondents though)

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 01:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For the record, let's stop referring to Ned Lamont's campaign as "Nedmentum" -- it puts a sore taste in my mouth because it is too similar to "Joementum." And here on the blogosphere, we like mentioning the word Joementum to make fun of Lieberman.

I prefer the term "Nedrenaline."

Posted by: Paul Hogarth [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 02:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I did use "Nedmentum" to make fun of Lieberman... but I agree, "Nedrenaline" is funnier.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 02:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Lamont will win on Tuesday. The problem is I also think as an Indy, Lieberman will win in November. For me the biggest thing is voter turnout. If Lamont wins with 60-65% turnout, it really undercuts Joe's credibility that Lamont is buying this election and I think their will be pressure on him to drop his Indy bid.

Posted by: safi [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A week or two ago, I predicted that Lamont would win in a modest landslide, around 55%. These poll results reflect an even more favorable outcome. He'll at least get 55% and may even get 60%. I've always been convinced that turnout will favor Lamont, so if this poll shows Lieberman at 41, it is really unlikely that he'll get much more than that if that at all.

I think that one commentator is right that Lamont can very well, and after these results, will probably "Bury" Joe Lieberman.

Posted by: KainIIIC [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can I make a totally irrelevant comment? Busby didn't say you don't need papers to vote, what she said was "You don't need papers for voting..." in order to help out on e-day. The first part of her sentence was lifted out of context. Her "gaffe" was in fact a right-wing media construct. This only matters as a matter of historical record, but the historical record does matter in a reality-based community. WE at least should stop calling it her gaffe and refer to the right-wing distortion that swung that election.

Posted by: thesleepthief [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 3, 2006 05:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment