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Wednesday, April 26, 2006

AZ-Sen: Finally, Some Good News for Pederson (D)

Posted by DavidNYC

ASU & KAET-TV have a new poll out on the Arizona senate race (registered voters, Oct. 2005 in parens):

Pederson: 31 (28)
Kyl: 42 (50)
Undecided: 27 (22)
(MoE: ±5%)

Just about every poll had shown terribly disappointing results for Jim Pederson, so this one is a nice change of pace. Of course, one marginally decent poll does not a victory make. Pederson is still down eleven points; the trendlines are terribly old; and most of his improvement came in the form of Kyl dropping. Still, seeing Kyl under 50 - especially this far under 50 - is a good sign. I'll wait to see some other polls before I even think about getting excited.

(Via Midterm Madness.)

Posted at 01:52 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Technorati

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Comments

David, you have the numbers for Kyl current (past) flipped. - Matt

Posted by: msn1 at April 26, 2006 02:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Note that the poll's question is not the usual "if the election were held today, would you . . ." Instead, it asks: "As you probably know, Republican U.S. Senator Jon Kyl is running for re-election this fall, His opponent is businessman and former Democratic state chairman Jim Pederson. At this early date, would you probably support . . ."

I think this long before an election, this is actually a much better question to ask and wish other pollsters would do it. Instead of a forced decision as if the election were today, it should more accurately determine if voters have really decided, or if they are open to either candidate -- a lot like canvassing. I read the 42 and 31 as baselines and think the poll looks good for Pederson.

Posted by: hilltopper at April 26, 2006 03:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I agree, hilltopper. The voters' question included the reference to Kyl being the INCUMBENT Republican senator and yet only 42% of those said they would vote for him? Wow. Pederson is only at 31% because people don't know him yet, which is to be expected.

Pedesron has a real shot at winning here.

Posted by: boyblue at April 26, 2006 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What is Pederson's name ID compared to Kyl's. With the immigration issue heating up and with Pederson's big warchest, I'm not calling this one over yet.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at April 26, 2006 07:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Still need a little more before I consider this one a race. But Pederson's a real candidate, and that he's making some inroads is promising.

Also, anyone else feel like the Arizona Senatorial polling is some of the strangest of this cycle? What is making this race tick?

Posted by: robitude at April 26, 2006 09:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Don't you think most Arizonans are closer to Kyl's position on immigration than Pederson's (or McCain's for that matter)? While these numbers are more encouraging than any others I've see, the huge number of undecideds makes me suspicious. I'm optimistic Pederson may be able make a race out of it, but fear his immigration position is more likely to hurt him than help him. Seems unlikely that Arizona will opt for two Senators embracing an immigration position that most Arizona voters consider amnesty.

Posted by: Mark at April 26, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've been skeptical about Pederson's chances, but this is fantastic news for him. The ASU poll run by Earl De Berge and Bruce Merrill is absolutely the most accurate in the state, and has been since the 2000 primaries. Any number they give you, you can run with.

I know what made this happen, too: the TV ads Pederson just went up with. He's going to be on the air until the election, he says.

Posted by: Nonpartisan at April 27, 2006 01:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In reference to the question about Arizona Senatorial polling being strange, it's not what's strange. What appears to be strange is Arizona's political cycle. An Arizona resident commented in one of these blogs (don't remember which one) that Arizonans don't really start to get engaged in upcoming political races till after the "snowbirds" (winter vacationers) leave the state. Then the year-round residents begin to pay attention and get involved. This is what I love about these blogs: the ability to become informed about the local peculiarities that drive politics in different locales.

I have called into Arizona for Democrats, and I can tell you that many Arizona Democrats loathe Kyl but have been unaware until recently that there was a viable Democratic challenger. So I think that this poll may be reflecting a few things. First, it reflects what we've known about Kyl having a relatively weak approval rating (his soft underbelly leaving him prone to a successful challenge) and illusory re-elect numbers. Second, Pedersen's warm and fuzzy ads are educating Arizona voters that they don't have to settle for Kyl this November if they don't want to.

I didn't expect Pedersen's warm and fuzzy ads to generate a major shift of support in his direction. Instead, I sense that they are a very effective strategy to create positive feelings about him early so as to inoculate him against the negative attacks that we can expect from the Kyl campaign, the RSCC, and the Republican Party in general.

I'm willing to predict that these numbers are omens of more good news to come from Arizona and Pederson. As his campaign picks up steam - at the pace that Arizonans want and like - I expect that we will see his support grow and surpass Kyl's. But Kyl won't relinquish his seat without a fight. Still, count this one as a pick-up!

Posted by: phonatic at April 27, 2006 03:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment