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Thursday, May 18, 2006

AZ-Sen: Jim Pederson Cuts Kyl Lead From 29 to 7

Posted by RBH

A new survey from Behavior Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll (voters, January in parens):

Pederson (D): 33 (26)
Kyl (R): 40 (55)
Undecided: 27 (19)
(MoE: ±4%)

KPHO is reporting this. Expect this to show up in Arizona papers tomorrow, with all sorts of quotes from both sides.

Basically, my reading of this poll is that it's a mix between a nosedive for Kyl and Republicans and Pederson's ad campaign. January 2006 was when Bush was in the low 40s, before the DPW situation, and before various other situations which have hurt the Republicans.

Pederson leads Kyl amongst Independents, 31-19, a massive shift from a 43-25 Kyl advantage in the January poll.

This could be a slight radar blip, but the candidate with momentum isn't hard to identify. A lot of people are fleeing from Kyl and the Republicans when it comes to 2006.

UPDATE (DavidNYC): So it turns out there is some solid support from another poll to back up these results. Take a look at this graphic. Kyl's disapproval among Dems has shot up like a bottle rocket. In the last month alone, he blasted from -12 to -34. Dems are coming home to Pederson. (Credit to Matt.)

Posted at 08:06 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Technorati

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If this poll is anything close to accurate, it means that Kyl's support is softer than the lovechild of the Pillsbury Doughboy and the Stay-Puff Marshmallow Man.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 09:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

lol nice one David. Promise me you will use that analogy in a court of law some day. ;)

Didnt Kyl vote against the "border protection act" or whatever inane law Bush just signed? Even though the law was a total BS piece of obvious pandering, voting against it would NOT help Kyl in a border state like Arizona.

Posted by: AlecBGreen [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't know if i feel to good about this Kyl support has been going back and forth between 5 point leads to 20 point leads when a follow up poll comes out I will feel better.

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 19, 2006 12:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pederson has also got to be happy that Bill Clinton is holding a fundraiser for him on June 1. While it did look pretty rough a few months ago, this campaign appears to have life in it yet.

Posted by: James L. [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 19, 2006 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is totally unscientific but I was just in Phoenix with my wife on vacation and I saw a bunch of Pederson signs and no Kyl signs. I took that to be a positive sign. Pederson also has an awesome commercial out as well.

Posted by: John Mills [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment