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Saturday, April 23, 2005

MO-Sen: Jim Talent's Gift for Unpopularity

Posted by Bob Brigham

Regular Swing State Project readers know that when a sitting Senator has a re-elect number under forty, it means they are headed towards a loss. It doesn't mean they will lose, but it does mean they are losing. The latest poll numbers on Missouri Senator Jim Talent are in the range normally reserved for politicians under indictment or in the throws of a major scandal. In Senator Talent's case, it looks like he earned his dangerously low popularity through consistently demonstrating his aptitude for voting against the interests of Missouri families.

From the Missouri Democratic Party:

Now a new survey shows that Talent is the most vulnerable Senator in the nation.

Just 36 percent of Missourians say that they would vote to re-elect Talent in 2006, while 64 percent say that they want someone else or are undecided. Despite 11 years in Washington, Talent has failed to show an overwhelming majority of Missourians any reason why they should keep him there. "We cannot recall an incumbent senator with lower positive ratings than Talent," said Harstad Strategic Research, which conducted the survey of more than 600 likely voters. (emphasis mine)

Senator Conrad Burns re-elect number is also 36, but for that Burns had to repeatedly lie to Montana voters about only serving two terms (he is running for his fourth) and be bolo tie deep in a major corruption scandal.

It looks like Jim's talent is pissing off Missouri voters every time he casts a Senate vote.

Today's trivia challenge: Can anyone cite an instance where the year before successful re-election a Senator had a re-elect number of 36?

Posted at 02:16 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Missouri | Technorati


I hope our current auditor Claire McCaskil decides to run. She has name recogntion and it is my opinion that the republicans are pissing off so many people that she should be a slam dunk. She barely lost the governors race and it is the opinion of some here that when the Kerry campaign pulled out of this state in mid october"Thank You Terry Mac" with a 3 poit deficit it cost her the election. At the time, she had a dead heat; each day had her up a half a point or down a half. I am hopeful we get a quality candidate because Talent IS VULNERABLE!!

Posted by: Kyle SF [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 24, 2005 11:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I read the post by KyleSF and thought to myself "I don't remember writing this post!" Kyle said what I have been saying, practically verbatim, since November 3rd. I dusted myself off and said "Okay, that happened. It's on to 2006, and since Claire isn't in the Governors Mansion, she can unseat that weasel Talent." In fact, I blooged about that possibility in my first post, back in March. She has the name recognition, and people are APPOLOGIZING TO HER on editorial pages throughout the state because Blunt is a disaster.

Posted by: Thinking Globally, Acting Locally [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 7, 2005 12:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We need to pin the bad feelings Missourians have towards our baby Guv, Blunt, and the rest of the State GOP on Talent.

Claire did well in outstate and, typically, outstate candidates do better against urban candidates. If Claire doesn't run then I think Robin Carnahan could give him a good run, but she could be hurt by 'name fatigue'.

The key is to talk about all of Talent's bad, anti-family, anti-working person votes in the same breath with the horrible votes made by Republicans in Jeff City: cutting First Steps, cutting insurance for children, parents of poor children, the elderly and disabled.

I think the people who see what a mistake it was to vote for Blunt over McCaskill might be VERY willing to vote for her this time around. And Talent's a droopy dog, personality wise.

Posted by: Glic [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 12, 2005 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment