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Thursday, October 28, 2004

You Rock! (& Open Thread)

Posted by DavidNYC

Wow - who knew? When we started our fundraising drive for Ginny Schrader, Chris and I weren't even sure we could help raise $1,000. Turns out that the readers of MyDD and the SSP have given an impressive $6630.14. Donations were given by 110 very generous people, far, far more than I thought would participate. Our final fundraising push netted almost two grand.

Excellent, excellent work, people! I know that the Schrader campaign is very appreciative, and this last pile of cash will most definitely help them get their final mailing out. So pat yourselves on the back - and I promise that there won't be any more fundraising nags from now until the election. (I will, of course, keep bugging you to volunteer for GOTV and poll watching.)

Now, it's all up to Ginny. Let's wish her the best as she brings this one home.

Please feel free to use this as an open thread.

Posted at 02:04 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


It seems like the closer this election gets the murkier it is.

States that I currently consider a coin toss are: FL, IA, MN, WI ��� 54.

A slight lean towards Bush: CO, NM ��� 14.
Weak Bush: AR, CO, MO, WV ��� 40.
Strong Bush: 178.
Total Bush: 232.

A slight lean towards Kerry: NH, OH, PA ��� 45.
Weak Kerry: HI, MI, ME (1), NJ ��� 37.
Strong Kerry: 170.
Total Kerry 252

Kerry needs to win the coin toss in FL or NM & WI to win the election.

Posted by: DFuller at October 28, 2004 04:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Weak Bush: AR, NV, MO, WV ��� 40.

Posted by: DFuller at October 28, 2004 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CNN is having a field day with the controversy over Bush's campaign doctoring a photo in it's newest ad. Judy Woodruff has mentioned it no less than three times in the last hour about it, and now she is about to talk to Ken Mehlman about it. Who knew it would be such big news?

Posted by: Dale at October 28, 2004 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alright! As a lifelong Floridian who has
never been within 300 miles of Philly, I
am proud to support her and hope her
constituents have the wisdom to do so too.


Posted by: The Other Rob at October 28, 2004 04:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just wanted to mention that the latest
Q poll for Florida shows that people who
say they have already voted favor K over B
by 56% to 39%.

I don't care about people who claim they
will vote, I care about people who
actually VOTE.

I don't have the link but you can find
Q's site by doing a "Florida poll" Google
search, it is in the first ten results.

Posted by: The Other Rob at October 28, 2004 04:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What do people here think about the expat vote? Traditionally, I suspect this demographic mostly includes GOP-leaning businesspeople, but rumors are that visceral anti-American sentiment throughout the world is helping Kerry considerably. I highly doubt these expats are being polled, so if the ratio ends up being 60-40 or better for Kerry, I could see it swinging the election. Unfortunately, the military vote is likely to erase the civilian expat vote. Any informed opinions on this matter?

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark: I was an expat for two years and I'd have to say that I was an exception as a Democrat. Generally the expats circled the wagons and indignantly expressed bafflement and anger at those who were unhappy with the US (this was in the French Caribbean, when "freedom fries" were, er, all the rage) rather than actually listening to what was going on. Perhaps students abroad will be motivated to vote absentee rather than blow it off, but I don't see a lot of Kerry support likely even among the civilian expat population.

Posted by: Ilana at October 28, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN should go Dem. There are just too many pissed off people here with Bushie to think otherwise. This assumes of course our republican Secretary of State MAry Kiffmeyer aka "Kathrine Harris wanna-be" doesnt disfranchise voters here or scare them away with the terrorism posters she wants posted at all the precincts. Minnesota will hopefully not be the Uff-da Republic. The Kerry win should be well above the litigation margin if current polls hold.

Posted by: RoadinMN at October 28, 2004 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Never, ever, ever doctor any campaign materials. The trivia-obsessed media LOVES stuff like that and will hit you hard for being a "phony."

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 28, 2004 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

New lead from the normally accurate University of New Hampshire -- Kerry by 4 (9 point swing from their last poll). The poll has more Repubs than Dems (which is what you'd expect for NH).

So if Kerry can take NH and OH and hold WI and MN, he wins. I would be happier if the margin were not so slim ... if he could take IA instead of WI, for instance ( but a tied election means Bush wins).

MEanwhile, a local Minneapolis news station is showing video footage showing the IAEA seals in AL Qa Qaa were intact when their reporters reached there as embeds. Its going to get great play there, imagine a local TV reporter having footage on an international scandal. By itself, this crystalizes the general incompetence of the Bush administration in Iraq. I think this could be really bad news for Bush in MN.

Posted by: erg at October 28, 2004 06:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ZOgby's state tracking polls:

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 48-47 percent; Florida, Bush 48-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 47-45 percent; Minnesota, Bush 46-45 percent; New Mexico, Bush 49-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-45 percent; Ohio, Kerry, 47-44 percent; Pennsylvania, tied 47-47; and Wisconsin, Kerry 49-46 percent.

I don't really believe Colorado, much as I'd like to. Iowa and Wisconsin look great. Minnesota is very close. Nevada and NM may be out of reach. PA -- Kerry is probably up by 2-3 so Zogby is wrong. OH looks good.

Michigan is begining to bother me a little. Bush is making a huge drive there, and Zogby has shown Kerry falling from an (unrealistic) 10 point lead to 2 points down. All of Bush's campaigning may be having an effect. On the other hand, the Detroit News shows the opposite effect, KErry went from 4 down to 5 up !! Kerry may have to spend some time in MI.

Posted by: erg at October 28, 2004 06:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

erg, I've been following the Minnesota affiliate story and I agree it could help Bush. Unfortunately, it's coming from the lowest-rated major broadcaster in the Twin Cities. Still, if their assumption proves correct, the story will go national and really become a problem for Bush after days of telling people the weapons were stolen before Saddam was overthrown. THe irony is that this ABC station is owned by a staunchly Republican Minnesota billionaire named Stanley Hubbard. It must be killing him to putting out this story that could be a boon for the Kerry campaign, provided it's not a rope-a-dope.

I'm not putting much stock in the Zogby state polls. How could Minnesota move four points in one day? Nor am I buying the lopsided New Mexico and Nevada margins. Nonetheless, I believe you're right about Michigan. Bush's highly publicized rally in Oakland County today needs to be countered with a Kerry visit. Sending John Edwards to Muskegon tomorrow isn't gonna cut it. It's unfortunate that Kerry is probably gonna have to waste another campaign visit to both Michigan and Pennsylvania, but I fear that he has to.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 07:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Desperation time for Bush-Cheney. Word is their new strategy to get 270 concentrates on Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico. For all intents and purposes, they have given up on Penn., Ohio, and Florida. Hail Mary time...Oh yeah, Kerry is the Catholic!!!!

Posted by: bigguy at October 28, 2004 07:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, I heard that Bush rally in MI was one of the largest and most fired up in that state during this entire campaign. I never thought MI would really be up for grabs, but right now Bush is putting an awful lot of time there in these final days of the campaign. Their people must know something, or I'm sure they wouldn't be wasting valuable time there. It's far too late to try and put the other guy on the defensive, so I can only conclude that MI is truly a swing state, after all. If Bush were somehow to steal MI, that would totally negate OH's importance--though if Kerry loses both OH and MI, I can't see him winning. It's too bad Kerry wasn't as agressive about MO and AR as Bush has been about MI.

I have a gut feeling that MI, OH, IA, MN, and WI will possibly all wind up in the same column on Election Night. If that is the case, that candidate will be our next president. As I have expressed before, this election is too close to call with any confidence, but I do believe the winner will carry the majority of swing states, giving him the illusion of winning a landslide victory.

Posted by: pepe at October 28, 2004 07:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

pepe -- Bush didn't really get aggressive in MI until this week.

I hope the Kerry staff is looking at the MI internal polls. If Detroit News continues to show Kerry ahead (by a few points) and Zogby falls back to a slight lead for MI, there may be no need for Kerry to visit. I think there will be need for Kerry to spend some time in MI unless his internal polls show FL as a possibility. Maybe kerry should hit Michigan on Sunday.

Incidentally, Washington Post had a big survey of Latino voters in the US today. I'm a little skeptical of attempts to sample a particular subgroup accurately. With that, the survey looks good for Kerry 57% to 30% in Latino voters. Thats pretty close to Gore's % -- and there are far more Latino voters this time.

CA Latinos went heavily for Kerry, Even in Texas, only 1/3rd of Latinos went for Bush. In Florida, he does get a large chunk of the cuban american vote. I was hoping the lack of Elian gonzalez would give Kerry an edge here, but Mel Martinez, the Bush brothers hand picked candidate is probably going to drive a large Cuban American turnout.

There was no data from NM separately (small sample size ?), and one would normally expect NM Latinos to be more conservative than the general Latino populace (because they're more likely to be long term residents). Yet, with Latinos at 42% of the populace, how on Earth is Bush ahead in NM ? Does he get that much of an edge in white voters ?

Posted by: erg at October 28, 2004 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As good as Bush's trip to Oakland County, MI was for him today, Kerry's 80,000+ rally in Madison, WI was just as big of a masterstroke, and may have sealed the deal for Kerry in Wisconsin.

From what I understand, Kerry will go to three rallies in Florida tomorrow and then return to Appleton, Wisconsin. Edwards will be all over the map from Muskegon, Michigan, Marietta, Ohio, and Raleigh, NC (why??).

Here's how'd I'd schedule rallies for the last three days of the campaign if I were Kerry and Edwards....

Saturday--Detroit, MI; Columbus, OH; Akron, OH; Allentown, PA.
Sunday--Eau Claire, WI; Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, MN; Des Moines, IA; Dubuque, IA.
Monday--Tampa, FL; Orlando, FL; Broward County, FL; Nashua, NH for a midnight rally before retreating to Boston to cast his own ballot.

Saturday--Tallahassee, FL; St. Petersburg, FL; St. Louis, MO; Ames, IA.
Sunday--Mason City, IA; Moorhead, MN; Wausau, WI; Sheboygan, WI.
Monday--Lansing, MI; Steubenville, OH; Beaver Valley, PA; Fayetteville, NC leading up to midnight.

As for the Big Dog, I read he's spending his last three days in places Kerry and Edwards will most likely not go....Nevada, New Mexico and Arkansas. Perfect. I truly believe we could take all three. Assuming he'll only be giving one speech in the three states, I'd go to Las Vegas on Saturday, Santa Fe, NM on Sunday, and Little Rock on Monday.

This strikes me as Kerry's best formula for success in the final hours.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 08:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

US was warned about explosives�Ķ

ABC has video of explosives post war

Posted by: Dman at October 28, 2004 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wish I could tell you why Edwards is wasting precious time at a rally in Raleigh, when NC is definitely out of reach. This is definitely a blunder. Why not have another rally in OH or MI, instead? Perhaps they're hoping this rally somehow helps slow down Erskine Bowles' free fall for the NC Senate seat vacated by Edwards. Burr, trailing at one point by 12 points, is now up by 3 points in the race.

Posted by: pepe at October 28, 2004 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Only 1/3 of New Mexicos hispanic population is old enough to vote as of 2000 census. Hispanic and Native American majority countys voted 2 to 1 for Clinton and Gore. Santa fe, Toas, San Miguel, Rio Arriba, Mckinley and Cibola counties vote. Is However off set by heavy Republican countys. Like San Juan, Otero, and Lea countys. Republicans and Democrats in Bernallio, Sandoval and Dona Ana cancel each others vote out. Thats Albuquerque and Las Cruces. What John Kerry has going for him is that most New Mexicans are socially liberal.

Posted by: greg at October 28, 2004 09:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"With friends like these, who needs enemies..."

Just a couple of quick points on this final week of the campaign, a week that history will look back upon as the period in which Bush lost the election.

First, Rudy Guiliani went a long toward destroying any chances he will have of ever becoming the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pretty hard to provide inspirational leadership when you are on record as blaming the troops for political mistakes.

Secondly, and most importantly, Karl Rove and his gang were waaaaay to clever by half in attempting to destroy the career of Dan Rather. The media, like any other profession, are for the most part respectful of one another as journalists, regardless of the competitive nature of the business to get the story out. I believe the litany of bad news for the B-C campaign so late in the game is not so much coincidental as it is a mechanism of self-protection on behalf of the journalistic fraternity. After all, after the Rather ambush, there had to be a lot of credible journalists wondering whether they had ever pissed off Rove or the Bush clan to the point of that gang of criminals attempting to subvert their careers. I think it is evident that the fraternity has closed ranks over this final week on the 2 major stories of explosives and Halliburton, and just decided never to let that band of Nazi's destroy somebody's career ever again. Don't get me wrong. I don't think these stories are inaccurate. I just think the timing is a form of poetic justice. Just my 2 cents worth.

Posted by: bigguy at October 28, 2004 09:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What a day:

1) Video from ABC of the weapons in April 2003 which later disappeared.

2) Rudy Guiliani blames the army on this. At about the same time Bush is saying that Kerry is trying to blame the army. The Republicans need to get their facts straight.

3) Haliburton investigation.

The Radical Right can���t spin things forever. It seems like today their spinning my have went a little out of control.

Posted by: DFuller at October 28, 2004 10:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DFuller, don't forget the fact that Bush got caught doctoring a campaign ad and had to pull the ad. This should be a devastating day for Bush. Let's hope the polls bear that out tomorrow and over the weekend.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 11:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

More good news for Kerry in Wisconsin.....nearly every newspaper in the state has endorsed him. It's doubtful this is worth much, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have a sweep of endorsements from Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay and La Crosse newspapers.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 11:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A couple potentially troubling developments....

They're sending Cheney to Hawaii on Sunday. This is obviously a huge gamble for Karl Rove considering it takes Cheney off the campaign trail for a full day, but it may be a very productive one. Part of the problem why Hawaii isn't favoring Kerry this year appears to be a feeling that the Dems take their support for granted. For the state to be visited by the Vice-President the weekend before the election is an outstanding PR move, particularly considering the best the Dems can do is Alexandra Kerry in Hawaii this weekend. Bush could have just secured four electoral votes with this move.

Also, I see Bush had made an ad purchase in Arkansas, and I don't believe Kerry has, at least yet. This ad buy could cancel out whatever advantage Kerry will get from Clinton's day-before-the-election rally there.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 11:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Guys thanks for keeping me optimistic. I swear watching MSNBC scarbrough country, their painting gloom and doom for Kerry. They continue to say Florida is leaning Bush. Over my dead body!! THe democrates have been organizing ever since Jeb was re-elected to make sure a democrate carries the states 27 electoral votes. I swear these guys on cable news make it seem like the Floridians have forgoten about 2000. Now I'm hearing words that the Democratic strategist inside Florida are seeing a Bush push. I just cant see it that way. Quinnipiac says that people who have already voted faver Kerry by 17 points. Democratic voter rolls are up in the heavily pop south Florida; African Americans are expected to come out in record #'s and the hurricanes effected the republican areas mostly so I cant seem to figure out why the media has given Bush Florida. We'll enough ranting; I just always thought that the old saying down in Texas would prevail: "WHen you are agitated you take action." Dem's in Florida have a lot of reasons to be agitated. One more thing if Kerry can some how, some way take Florida; the election is over guys no matter what way the neo-cons try to spin it!!

Posted by: godfrey at October 29, 2004 03:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cheney is going to campaign in HA this Sunday? HAHAHAHAHA!!! Well, he'll get a nice lei and a vacation! Seriously, I suppose his visit will tighten things up on the islands, but it just means they'll lose by a little less than if he had not visited. There is NO WAY that HA will be in the Bush column.

Posted by: pepe at October 29, 2004 06:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

pepe, it can't get any tighter on the islands. It's tied in the last two polls.

Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 08:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It���s all about turnout. Today���s Zogby poll is dead even 47-47. It all depends on who actually votes on Tuesday. If we can get 70% of our voters while Bush can only get 68%, then we win. It all depends on who shows up at the polls. In my opinion, Democrats will be there on Tuesday. I believe that most Democrats are extremely motivated to make it Tuesday. Whether because of Bush using September 11 as an excuse to quickly push some Right-Wing bills through Congress, the Florida fiasco of 2000, or the Iraq fiasco of 2003-4 Democrats will be motivated and turning out Tuesday. I predict a lot of stories Tuesday about long lines at the polls and not enough ballots on hand.

(Rant 1) The winner will be decided on whether Democrats can get to the polls, or Republicans can successfully keep Democrats from voting. The GOP should be ashamed of the shenanigans going on in OH. I have heard that some of the new registrants they are protesting happening to be soldiers overseas. To be honest, I think protesting new registrants is counterproductive for the GOP. It might actually help get Kerry some votes from Republicans who get angry of having to prove their address when arriving to vote. At least the Ohio court put a temporary stop to the Republican shenanigans.

(Rant 2) I do not see how people think Bush is a great leader. He acts more like a dictator than a leader.

A true leader listens to his advisors. Bush ignores his. He went to war in Iraq with fewer troops than his experts said he needed. As a result, looting occurred this has put almost 400 tons of dangerous weapons into the hands of our enemies. The NRA should love Bush for providing so many weapons to insurgents and possibly terrorists. Another result is the Middle East has been destabilized. Almost 400 tons of weapons in the hands of extremists is not a good way to stabilize the area.

A true leader can unite. Bush divides. He took this country which was more united in 2001 than ever before and has divided it. He used September 11 to push through his Right Wing Agenda.

A true leader understands the big picture. Bush is so focused on Iraq that he ignores it. What this country truly needs to win the War on Terror is global cooperation. Terrorists are hiding everywhere. The only way to rid the world of them is global cooperation. I was extremely angry when Bush announced that countries not involved in the fighting would get no contracts. He had the opportunity to pass on a olive branch to our allies after the wedge created during the war, but instead he turned it into a political statement to help sure up his Neocon base and increased the rift between us and our allies.

Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 09:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anyone know if they have early voting in Massachusetts? I was hoping that Kerry could do early voting and make a surprise visit to HI in the early morning of November 2. We need to show HI that they are not forgotten.

Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 09:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D I feel you dog! I guess you read my blog! Hey at least we can say you won't have 1 person on our side that won't turnout because:
a. They thing their vote doesn't count
b. They forgot
c. Dosen't think this election is the most important in their lifetime!

If there's a big turnout their's no way we lose!!

Posted by: godfrey at October 29, 2004 09:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DFuller, to my knowledge, it's not legal to campaign on Election Day. That's why I suggested a final Kerry rally in Nashua, New Hampshire, leading up to the election so he can return home to MA with a short half-hour drive. If I recall, Gore's Florida rally in 2000 had to end at midnight on Monday because campaigning on Election Day is forbidden.

Speaking of last-minute campaigning, remember when the overconfident Bush decided to take the last day of the campaign off in 2000? Wouldn't it be wonderful if he made the same mistake this time, unlikely as it is that he will?

Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 09:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When Kerry had Clinton campaigning and Bush had Guiliani on the same day, I was thinking:

A) Clinton would remind people of how much better they were and the economy was four years ago.

B) Guiliani would remind people of September 11th.

It basically went into the perceived strengths of the two. Bush is thought to be better for the War on Terror although the reality is he is just great at fear mongering and making people think they are safer. Kerry is thought to be better at getting the economy back on track.

Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 11:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It is hard to see liberal Hawaii going for a troglodyte like Chenety. Even the Governor is pretty liberal.

Are Innouye and the like campaigning actively for Kerry ? That could be important.

Survey USA has Kerry leading by 3 in Oregon. While thats lower than in other recent polls, Kerry has a 10 pt. lead among people who've already voted (60% of people). Oregon has all mail-in ballots. So Bush would have to win by over 15 points in the remaining people to win. The fact that Dems are voting in large numbers is also good news for Kerry (remember that Oregon was close last time).

I can speak for my personal experience. As a naturalized citizen I did not feel strongly about voting in 2000. I've already voted this time, and persuaded 2 other relatives to register and vote for Kerry.

Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 11:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Survey USA's numbers are erratic. I wouldn't put much stock in the Oregon poll, especially considering another Oregon poll today showed Kerry up by six. Another poll to ignore is the Badger Poll out of Wisconsin. Their operation is so low-budget that it oversamples its own heavily Republican area code so as not to run up higher long-distance bills. They also had Bush up by 14 just last month. A 14-point Bush win in Wisconsin? I don't think so. The fact that it moved 11 points away from Bush is definitely a good sign for Kerry. Beyond that, his Madison rally yesterday was a grand slam. I'm more confident about winning Wisconsin than I have been for months.

Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 11:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I love watching the Republicans failure to spin the missing weapons story. We have Guiliani blaming the military, and John Shaw, the deputy U.S. undersecretary of defense for international technology security, blaming and pissing off the Russians. The Pentagon declassified a picture of two trucks at the complex on March 17 and Rummy said that Iraq may have moved them before the war. Of course, that doesn���t explain the picture of the video taken April 18. It is sad though that Bush did not send enough troops to secure weapons. My guess is a lot of soldiers and Iraqis have been killed with the looted weapons.

Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 12:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Meanwhile, Bush is also making another push in NJ. Bush's daughthers and other proxies are here in this state. Kerry should probably ask Lauttenberg and Corzine to campaign for him in the state.

Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just saw a nwes item that ex-Senator Bob Smith of NH has endorsed Kerry. This is good news in both NH and FL. Bob Smith was very conservative, his endorsing Kerry is great news.

Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

erg, I agree about New Jersey. It might not be a bad idea to send Edwards or another of Kerry's surrogates to NJ. It's uncomfortably close there.

Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 12:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D, good point on the use of both campaigns to use Clinton and Guliani. The 1 thing that I wish people can come to realize is that 911 happened under Bush's watch; so when you see all these polls stating that Bush has a lead in handling the War on Terror and the Situation in Iraq It fustrates the hell out of me. Imagine if Gore was president when 911 happened the neo-cons would be screaming you failed to protect us!!

Posted by: godfrey at October 29, 2004 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I agree that more attention should be lavished on NJ. Why Edwards is having a rally in Raleigh is really beyond me, when there are so many other states that his presense might actually influence the outcome of the election.

Posted by: Pepe at October 29, 2004 01:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

FDU has a new poll for NJ. Kerry 47-40. Even the Republican who does the bipartisan poll thinks NJ is out of reach unless the undecideds break for Bush 2 to 1. Which is quite unlikely. He also points out that Bush's brand of conservatism doesn't go over very well in moderate NJ Republicans.

So NJ stays with Kerry, but not by double digits, I think. Turnout is still important. The NJ Democratic party is mired in corruption scandals, but there should be a reasonable GOTV here.

Incidentally, in the poll, 17% of Republicans think that the war in Iraq is going very well. What planet do they live on ?

Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

17% of Republicans in NJ think the war is going well. That number strikes me as low! The stereo-typical Bush supporter (picture the ostrich with its head in the sand) would argue that this was always going to be tough, elections in January, schools being built, etc. Maybe that's not being fair to some of the more moderate Republicans that are still with Bush, but I'm surprised that number is still that low.

Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 29, 2004 05:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, there were 4 choices in the poll. Very Well, Fairly Well, Not Too Well, Not Well at all.

57 % of Repusb believe the war is going fairly well, 17% believe its going very well. So 74% seem to believe its going well.

Even Bush, Rumsfeld etc. would be hard pressed to claim the war is going very well. But 17% of Repubs in moderate NJ believe that (or more likely, they're just showing loyalty to Bush).

Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 06:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now that I've seen the complete numbers from the poll you quoted, I have to agree with you completely. Those in the 17% category strike me as being the head-in-the-sand blind-faith Bush supporters.

On the other hand, if you are willing to believe that we have had enough troops on the ground once "major combat operations" ended and that there was no way to make the process of reconstructing Iraq any easier, a "Fairly Well" answer is probably not that unreasonable. You could claim to have always realized it would be this bad. Its pretty clear that even this portion of the Republican base is responding this way out of loyalty to Bush, they just make the viewpoint seem a little more feasible.

Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 31, 2004 02:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Someone mentioned this to me at a party last night and it struck me as something that desirved a little more attention than I have seen it given.

There is a woman running for the 14th District US House seat in Ohio who, if elected, would be the youngest person to serve in the House.


From what I have seen so far (and it is very little to base anything on), this is a very conservative district so she is a real long shot.

At any rate, I thought it might be worth mentioning.

Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 31, 2004 02:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment