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Monday, April 03, 2006

CT-Sen: Lowering Expectations

Posted by DavidNYC

Take a look at this:

Lamont will need the votes of at least 241 (15 percent) of those delegates [to the statewide nominating convention] or signatures from 14,000 (2 percent) of the state's 700,000 registered Democrats to force an Aug. 8 primary against Lieberman. Signatures must be collected by June 5.

Lieberman campaign manager Sean Smith conceded that a primary against Lamont is likely inevitable.

"We think it won't be a problem for him to get 15 percent of the delegates," Smith said. "He's been working at this for several months, and he's been bragging about his grass-roots army."

Wow, Lamont has been at this all the way since the end of January! Poor Joe's only had eighteen years to get his act together. It almost goes without saying that Lieberman is nakedly trying to lower expectations here. Expected in politics, but pretty sad for an incumbent Senator.

Also, mocking the grassroots? Not a smart move. Every time they rile us up, it just makes us want to work that much harder for Lamont. Lieberman would be wise to present a smaller target and not give the grassroots/netroots more fodder. The fact that his campaign manager doesn't seem to realize this, though, is a good sign for Lamont.

(Via DailyKos.)

Posted at 10:12 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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I assume that Lamont is doing well with the more liberal, cyber-savvy Dem activist types. But my question is how does Lieberman (or Lamont) fare right now with the African-American activists? According to the CNN 2004 Exit Poll summary, African-Americans only comprised 6% of the general electorate. But I suspect they're a more significant influence within Dem politics and primaries in the state.

And of course, what happens with organized labor (including the education unions)? The general approach with labor is that you endorse the Dem incumbent unless they've screwed you. On labor issues Lieberman is no Henry Cuellar, so what do they do, if anything?

I can see Lamont getting to a decent critical mass of organized Dem support. I could also see Lieberman's support being very lukewarm and passive. But Lamont's road is much harder if he doesn't get some active institutional support, and that could be tough for him to come by.

Posted by: DHinMICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 4, 2006 12:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment