Swing State Project

« OH-Gov: Montgomey (R) Dropping out of Race | Main | House Dems: Pay Your DCCC Dues! »

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

AZ-Sen: Kyl Swamping Pederson

Posted by DavidNYC

Man, I am not liking this new BRC/Rocky Mountain poll (just plain "voters," Oct. in parens):

Pederson: 26 (30)
Kyl: 55 (54)
Undecided: 19 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Pederson is supposed to be a great candidate: He's got money, and as chair of the AZ Dems, he's got all the connections you could imagine. Moreover, Kyl is the ultimate super duper conservative wingnut. According to CQ (PDF), Kyl voted with the GOP majority 98% of the time in 2005 - the second-highest rate in the GOP caucus. I've got to believe he's out-of-step with much of Arizona.

And yet Pederson can't seem to gain any traction, at least (twice now) according to this poll. (The Zogby results are clearly from bizarro-world.) If we can't link (and thus hurt) Kyl with the failed Bush administration, whom can we do it with? I'm certainly not writing Pederson off - it's still quite early. We have a lot of good pickup opportunities, and I had hoped that AZ would be one of them. Anything's possible, but for now, I remain pessimistic.

Posted at 10:00 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2108

Comments

Those numbers you posted would be nice,,,,,But I think they are backwords. Just a friendly heads up

Posted by: Buckscountydem at January 24, 2006 11:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D'oh! Not the first time I've done that. Will fix.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 24, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From what I'm hearing out of AZ, I don't think Pederson has started actively campaigning yet. I think his goal was to amass a warchest with which to compete with Kyl, a goal he seems to be meeting, and wait to campaign until the election got closer. Honestly, I wouldn't expect his name rec to be moving up yet, because he hasn't spent any money in the state yet.

Posted by: Jeremy Young at January 26, 2006 12:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pederson has not started campaigning yet. We hear from him only as a response when a major senate vote occurs. He has been traveling the state, but you don't hear much because the local paper sucks and is conservative.

The Arizona Republic(an), has been running a "diary" written by Kyl on the confirmation hearings with no rebuttal.

I canceled my subscription today!

Posted by: toc001 at January 27, 2006 01:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment