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Friday, October 14, 2005

WA-Sen: Cantwell (D) vs. McGavick (R)

Posted by DavidNYC

Fundraising numbers from the Pacific Northwest, featuring Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell vs. Republican Mike McGavick:

Cantwell 3Q Amount Raised: $1.5M
McGavick 3Q Amount Raised: $710K

Cantwell Cash-on-Hand: $3.8M
McGavick Cash-on-Hand: D/K

The Cantwell campaign claims that she's raised more money than any other Dem Senate candidate except Hillary Clinton. A couple of other potential GOP candidates are in the mix, but they haven't kicked off their campaigns yet. If memory serves, both Cantwell and McGavick are independently wealthy, correct? This race could get very expensive - and very nasty - very fast.

I do think, though, that it's a good idea for candidates who could otherwise self-finance to get out there and raise money, especially from the grassroots, particularly considering how easy it is to do so online these days. Cantwell says that 22,000 Washingtonians have donated to her campaign this year. That's 22,000 people who now have a reason to remain invested in her campaign - and a not-inconsiderable fraction will wind up volunteering or helping to raise yet more money. It's a virtuous cycle, and it firms up your base.

Posted at 10:43 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Washington | Technorati

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This is a race we need to keep a close eye on. Even against weak competitors, Cantwell doesn't exactly dominate public opinion polls. If last year's gubernatorial race martyr Dino Rossi had decided to run, we'd really have a battle on our hands (thank you, Liz Dole, for being so ineffective!). I know nothing about McGavick, but his potential warchest is a little concerning with Cantwell's likely vulnerability.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2005 11:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't think Cantwell will be beaten and here's why. Remember she beat Slate Gorton, who was a 3-term moderate Republican who was well respected on both sides of the aisle. Cantwell may not excite a lot of people, but I don't think McGavick will either and I think in the end McGavick has very little crossover appeal and I think McGavick's weakness as a candidate couples with Washington's leftward tilt will get Cantwell another 6 year

Posted by: safi [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2005 08:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

FYI, Cantwell's personal wealth is questionable at this point. She financed her 2000 campaign largely with loans, for which she used her RealNetworks stock as collateral. After the market fell, the value of her collateral also fell, leaving her with some pretty substantial campaign debt. In fact, fundraising during the first four years of her term in office went largely toward paying off her debt. For the last half year or so, though, she has been building a very substantial warchest at an incredible pace. Even at her wealthiest, she never approached McGavick, so his personal finances could go toward a lavishly built campaign. She ought to win, but it isn't a gimme.

Posted by: James Hupp [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 14, 2005 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment