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Monday, July 24, 2006

MN-Sen: Klobuchar Still Leads Kennedy

Posted by RBH

In a followup to the poll putting Amy Klobuchar up by 19 points, a DSCC poll puts the margin at 16 points.

Amy Klobuchar (D): 50
Mark Kennedy (R): 34
Undecided: 15
(MoE: TBD)

(i'm sure the MOE will be mentioned soon enough, but I haven't seen it yet)

But after the talk from the Kennedy camp that the 19 point margin was proof of "liberalmediabias," I'm sure that they're relieved to hear that the margin is just "very wide" instead of "extremely wide".

MN Publius notes this point about the Minnesota polling in general:

The GOP and the right wingers are going to scream bloody murder over these numbers and their coming from the DSCC. But it is important to remember that this poll was conducted by Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal who only make money as long as they're accurate. It is not in the DSCC's, or any other political orginization or candidate for that matter, interest to collect inaccurate data. Polls are used for formulating strategy and if those polls are wrong, the strategy will be flawed.

Respondants in this survey also prefered "A Senator who challenges Bush" over "A Senator who does what Bush says" by a 61/32 margin.

I sense the best case scenario for Minnesota involves the state becoming "The Land of 10,000 polls showing Amy Klobuchar with a wide lead" around October.

Posted at 03:21 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Minnesota | Technorati

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Aww, the Publius guys get all the love from you big national honchos. Gotta spread it around - lots of great bloggers in Minnesota doing great work!

Posted by: JelloAbode [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 07:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm hoping for more frequent polling in this race. Even as a Klobuchar fan, I'm skeptical of the prospect of her leading by 16-19 points, especially against Kennedy, a guy who has represented 32 Minnesota counties in two completely different Congressional districts while Klobuchar has represented only one Minnesota county (granted it's the big one, Hennepin, but it still confines her name ID). This is all circumstantial, but if Klobuchar was truly leading Kennedy by 16-19 points, she would have to be leading him on his turf, which includes communities like St. Cloud, Woodbury, Willmar, and Worthington. Could the Hennepin County Attorney really be beating the native son Kennedy in places like this?

One thing Klobuchar does have going for her is a relentless advertising blitz in all Minnesota TV markets. The ads are quite "centrist" and effective at conveying the image of a benign alternative to the George Bush ally. And since Klobuchar's ads are going unanswered by Kennedy thus far, her bounce may in fact be real. Still, it's too early to get overly confident. There are a couple key ways in which Klobuchar can be demagogued. Being a prosecutor, don't put it past the sleazy Kennedy to pull out a Willie Horton-esque thug that slipped through the cracks of her prosecution. Perhaps even more threatening, it's no secret that many of Klobuchar's employees at the Hennepin County Attorney's office hate her guts. AFSCME was very cool to offer its endorsement because of discontent with the "bitchy boss". If the GOP can feature an ad with some disgruntled former employees as an October surprise, it could hurt.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, your wish is my blog entry. SUSA has Klobuchar up 47-42 with Fitzgerald (3rd-party) getting 8. I think this is undersampled for Amy - the same sample put out a 50-36 advantage for Pawlenty over Hatch in the gubernatorial, which is a bit out of whack considering that ALL major polls up till now have put that race within the MoE.

Posted by: JelloAbode [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 07:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I thought the SUSA results were a bit off too. The 50-36 Pawlenty-Hatch numbers are far from any other poll, like you said. I think it's going to be a tough race for Hatch to win, especially with Hutchinson in it, but 50-36 seems a little stark.

I also think it's a little strange that Fitzgerald(I) has 8% in the Senate race. He isn't receiving nearly the attention that Peter Hutchinson (the Ind candidate for governor) is, so I'm very surprised that they would get equal support in any poll.

Also, Jello, thanks for MNCR. I'm a regular reader , but I don't comment much. Nice job though :)

Posted by: bogun [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 11:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Some of those SUSA polls seem to be bad samples, although I will say that two consecutive polls with the same sample and huge differences in the outcomes of the two polled races tells me Klobuchar is clearly overperforming Hatch at this stage. I'm a little surprised that voters are as content as they are with Tim Pawlenty, whose budgetary malpractice with "tobacco fees" meant to please his Taxpayer's League masters nearly cost the state $400 million to the tobacco companies.

As I said last night, Hatch seems to have a great ground operation and is way ahead of the curve in the yard sign wars. My theory is that a rural strategy could do wonders for Hatch if he continues pursuing it. I just can't see Hatch underperforming Roger Moe as this poll indicates.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey, thanks Bogun :) Try the new chat feature - I'm going to schedule a live chat for later in the week, if you're up for it. It's just a sidebar widget for now, but I'm trying to get it on its own page......we'll see how it goes.

Hatch DEFINITELY won't underperform Moe, but that's really not saying a whole lot. He needs help, and personally I think he needs to stop running his own campaign. But that's me.

Posted by: JelloAbode [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 11:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment