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Friday, March 26, 2004

Novak Says Kerry Ahead in OH & FL

Posted by DavidNYC

Atrios points to some prognostications from Bob Novak (shudder), who says that Kerry is now leading in Ohio and Florida, and would be poised for a (relatively big) 306-232 electoral victory over Bush - assuming Kerry holds on to all the Gore states.

If Bush loses Ohio, he's dead. That's because I'd have a hard time envisioning him losing OH but still winning WV, and taking back MN plus one more state. If we pick up OH but lose MN, we still win with a 270-268 squeaker. I'm picking on MN here because something - I'm not sure what exactly - tells me that this is our most vulnerable state. Sure, Bush could hope to pick up PA - but again, if he loses OH, I don't see PA heading his way. Assuming Bush can take MN, then unless something weird happens in addition, like Kerry losing NM or OR, I can't see a way for Bush to make up a loss of Ohio.

And if Bush loses Florida, well, break out your best bubbly. That'll just be icing on the cake. The Maker knows we'd all love to get a little payback for 2000 - and watch Jeb hopelessly fail his brother. I don't think Florida's headed our way, in the final analysis, but we can always dream, can't we?

One last observation: I hardly need to say that we shouldn't get too excited at this point. Bush may be on the ropes now, but you can be sure that things will ebb and flow considerably between now and November. (Never forget, among other things, that the press has a vested interest in a close, "interesting" contest.) All this is very, very early. Yogi Berra observed on the diamond that "It gets late early around here." But for better or for worse, in politics, it almost always seems to be early.

Posted at 09:45 PM in General | Technorati


Its any body's race right now. IMHO, Kerry needs to expoit more of Dummy's mistakes. Bush has no choice now but to go negative, and that won't help him.

Posted by: Steve at March 27, 2004 06:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Great site. Hope to come back often, even as a conservative. This is a very close race right now, and I am amazed at how divided the country is at the time. I know we have all heard that before, but the more you study it, the fact is even more amazing.

Posted by: don at March 28, 2004 01:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment