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Thursday, October 13, 2005

OH-Gov: Montgomery Releases Poll Numbers

Posted by Tim Tagaris

In a memo titled, "Montgomery Still the Only One Who Can Win the General," Betty Montgomery released her latest poll commissioned by The Tarrance Group.  Notably absent are number for a potential primary, which she undoubtedly paid for as well.  I think it's safe to assume that headline might have read, "Montgomery Getting Clocked Cleaned in Three-Way Primary." Anyway, here are the numbers (.pdf):

The Tarrance Group. MoE +/- 3.5%. 801 registered voters.

Ted Strickland (D): 43%
Ken Blackwell (R): 35%
Undecided: 22%

Michael Coleman (D): 44%
Ken Blackwell (R): 36%
Undecided: 20%

Ted Strickland (D): 39%
Betty Montgomery (R): 42%
Undecided: 19%

Michael Coleman (D): 37%
Betty Montgomery (R): 44%
Undecided: 19%

Ted Strickland (D): 41%
Jim Petro (R): 38%
Undecided: 22%

Michael Coleman (D): 39%
Jim Petro (R): 23%
Undecided: 39%

She paid for the poll, so take it with a grain of salt.  With all the recent developments in Ohio, I'd expect a slew of polls to come out on all sorts of races in the very near future.  Mayor Michael Coleman also put out some numbers recently, but they are in release form as opposed to the raw data supplied by Montgomery.

Posted at 03:38 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Ohio | Technorati

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These numbers as well as Coleman's numbers are VERY interesting. I say they are very interesting because they show Coleman much more competitive than I envisioned. Personally, I think that Coleman holds political convictions closer to my heart, while I think the CW is that Strickland has a much stronger chance of winning the general and has the state party and the nomination wrapped up. I would like to note however, that this race is MUCH different than the Senate race. While I am of the very strong belief that a Democratic primary for the Senate seat between Brown and Hackett is VERY BAD, I tend to think that with the wide open Republican primary,no incumbent, and the Republicans not knowing what to do about Blackwell(and not supporting him)that the Gubernatorial Democratic primary is healthy. If anyone knows 1)How Coleman can win the primary and 2)How Coleman can win the general, please share. In addition, if Coleman drops out(now or soon) could he mount a successful challenge to Deborah Price?

Posted by: OH-09Dem [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 13, 2005 01:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-09Dem, I'm not familiar with Deborah Pryce's numbers in the last two elections, but her actions on CAFTA should at least conceivably make her vulnerable. I recall watching on C-SPAN the day before the vote where Pryce was a member of a bipartisan group of lawmakers standing in front of the lawn of Congress condemning CAFTA. I recall Pryce's testimonial as being one of the most blistering. Imagine my surprise two days later when I read the roll call vote for CAFTA and see Deborah Pryce listed as an "aye". Clearly, this doesn't pass the smell test, and plays right into the hands of the Democrats' "culture of corruption" charge towards the GOP next year. Best case scenario for Ohio: Ted Strickland running for Governor, Michael Coleman running for Pryce's House seat.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 13, 2005 01:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Personally, I don't take any of these polls that seriously this far out. How many voters at this point are really that familiar with all these candidates, their backgrounds and what they do and don't support? I think very few. I'm just beginning to learn about Strickland and Coleman myself, visiting their web sites and going to hear them speak (I've heard Coleman once on his own, and a forum with both candidates, and I have to say that both impress me). Also, as far as the Republican candidates go, it seems like you turn over a rock and more corruption appears. So on their side it might depend on which candidate appears dirtiest at the time of the election. I alo think while Blackwell might turn out the extremists in the primary, he could have a huge problem in the general once people get to know exactly how extreme he is. Anyway, it's way early, and I look forward to seeing events unfold.

Posted by: Ansatasia P [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 13, 2005 03:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I actually think it's fairly late for some voters. The Republican head-to-head polls show a smaller than expected number of undecideds.

As for how Coleman can win -- it's easy. He's the real deal. A consistent Democrat who shares the core values of Dem voters. The more folks learn about what Strickland has done (versus what he says during campaign speeches) the higher Coleman's numbers will go.

More importantly, Strickland has criss-crossed the state, campaigning since June. Strickland's numbers aren't budging! Coleman, by comparison, has been quite busy actually governing in Columbus. Once he hits the campaign trail, things will look very different.

Posted by: ohiopol [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 15, 2005 04:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment