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Thursday, June 10, 2004

LAT Polls Three Swing States: MO, OH, WI

Posted by DavidNYC

As part of a larger national poll, the LA Times also ran polls in three swing states: Missouri, Ohio & Wisconsin.


Kerry: 37
Bush: 48
Nader: 5
Unsure: 10

Kerry: 42
Bush: 48
Unsure: 10


Kerry: 45
Bush: 42
Nader: 4
Unsure: 9

Kerry: 46
Bush: 45
Unsure: 9


Kerry: 42
Bush: 44
Nader: 4
Unsure: 10

Kerry: 44
Bush: 44
Unsure: 11
Other (vol.): 1

(MoE for all polls: ��4%)

The MO result is pretty disheartening - but of course, we don't need it to win. On the flipside, we can't afford to concede it, either. If we do that, then the Bushies can pour that money into Ohio instead.

(Thanks to mattb25.)

UPDATE: I added in the polling numbers without Nader. Kerry looks a lot better in MO - indeed, five points better - without Nader in the mix.

Posted at 01:34 AM in Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin | Technorati


I was more disheartened by the Wisconsin results than by the Missouri numbers.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 10, 2004 01:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I expect Wisconsin to be close, and most other polls show it that way, typically with a slight Kerry lead. But I was hoping to see other polls in MO confirm the recent Rasmussen one which showed us just one point back there.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 10, 2004 02:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I had the opposite expectations, since Wisconsin went for Gore (albeit by a paltry 0.22%) and every poll I'm aware of there, except Badger, has had Kerry ahead (albeit always inside the margin), while Missouri went for Bush by a (relatively speaking) hefty 3.34% and the lead in polls there has been going back and forth for months.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 10, 2004 04:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

All three states are essentially tossups, but obviously MO is in Bush's column at the moment. MO is a rather conservative state overall. So, it's really not a surprise to see Bush with a decent lead there. WI is a toss up for sure. The OH result looks good, but again tossup. Still a lot of undecides, who tend to vote for the challenger.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 10, 2004 09:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sent this to Kos as well:

Wisconsin Is Kerry Country in 2004.

As a lifelong resident, some thoughts about the CW that Wisconsin (10 electoral votes; in 2000, Gore--47.8 percent; Bush--47.6 for a 5,708-vote victory) is a key swing state this fall, as the LA Times poll indictes.


Wisconsin is a very solid Democratic state for presidential races, and Kerry
will take this by four percentage points.

A Republican has not won here since Reagan���s 1984 landslide. I realize current
poll results are inconclusive���showing both healthy Kerry and Bush leads���but
consider this:

Nader, running very much to the left here in 2000, picked up 3.6 percent of the state vote--94,070 votes). In Milwaukee and Dane counties (the most populous and liberal counties) Nader received 26,983 votes (28% of his total). Now, this is anecdotal but of some 20 people I spoke to who live in both counties (mostly in the cities of Madison and Milwaukee) and voted for Nader in 2000, one said she is voting for Nader again, one person! Gore���s 5,708-vote victory margin will pick up a lot of votes from the 26,983 people state-wide who voted for
Nader (I'm one of them).

And besides Bush ran as a moderate multilateralist, and then governed as a hard-
right militarist. I worked a construction site with some whackos the other weekend and all three guys I talked to voted for Bush in 2000 but will vote for Kerry now: Reasoning is that Kerry is a veteran (plays very well) and Bush started a war (plays very badly).

Does anyone, anywhere know two people who voted for Gore who are now voting for Bush?

I know the Dems will need another big GOTV effort again, but the Dem volunteers who I know are dedicated and really do hate Bush.

Folks, believe me, Wisconsin ain���t no swing. And check the numbers; I don���t think Iowa and Minnesota (I know these were not in he LA Times Poll are either.)



Posted by: mal at June 10, 2004 10:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm also disheartned by the Wisconsin numbers. That was too close for comfort last time and we can't afford to lose any Gore states.

Bush was just there a few weeks ago, so perhaps a Kerry visit (and some anti-Nader propaganda from TheNaderFactor) would help narrow the gap.

Posted by: Luke Francl at June 10, 2004 11:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Missouri polls have been all over the place since the campaign started. I've seen two with a 3-point Kerry lead, two with a 1-point Bush lead, one with a 7-point Bush lead, and two with an 11-point Bush lead.

I am from Missouri and I don't really know what's going on either. If turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City is high enough, Democrats should at least have a chance there. It's possible that Gov. Holden, an embattled and somewhat unpopular Democrat who's facing a primary challenge, is making the situation tougher for Kerry.

Posted by: Kevin at June 10, 2004 02:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The MO poll makes some sense.

I also agree with LAT OH poll. I'm in Ohio and IMHO Kerry is up, but it is in the margin of error. The battleground areas are Columbus/Franklin county and the Dayton-Springfield metro area. I think SE Ohio will stay Red, as well as the metro Cincinnati area will stay heavily red although they will have a fight on their hands to keep it heavily for Bush. Toledo and Cleveland-Youngstown-Lorain are all heavily for Kerry.

I also think that the Mason-Dixon poll oversampled SW Ohio which is the Cincinnati and part of Dayton-Springfield media market.

Posted by: pc at June 13, 2004 06:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Don't give up on Missouri yet. Bush and Cheney have been here often enough to register to vote; indicating that they think the state is critical. If the Nancy Farmer campaign against Kit Bond (ugh!) can get some legs; it will help Kerry significantly. It will be very close; but Missouri can be taken. At worst, it will keep B/C here and away from other places.

Posted by: Toes at July 22, 2004 10:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As a Missourian, I'm very skeptical of that MO poll. How do you explain a +1 lead for Kerry in the last poll all of the sudden jumping to an +11 lead for Bush? It's just too much of a swing in a short amount of time.

I also believe there's no way Nader is gonna get 5% in MO.

Posted by: Brandon R. at July 26, 2004 04:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is a realistic scenario developing here where Bush could (again) fail to get more votes than his opponent and but gain a tie in the electoral college. He would then be elected by the House. It seems to me that Kerry faces an uphill battle keeping all the 2000 blue states while picking enough of the 2000 states to win outright.

Posted by: Don Venable at August 1, 2004 02:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For more information on the Missouri Initiative Petitions regarding Electoral Reform, visit www.ketcher.com

Posted by: ketchb2 at November 20, 2004 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For more information on the Missouri Initiative Petitions regarding Electoral Reform, visit http://www.ketcher.com/

Posted by: ketchb2 at November 20, 2004 03:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment